地震活动性与日月引潮力相关性统计分析
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摘要
基于ISC地震记录,利用天体动力学中二体问题的轨道方程和摄动理论,确定发震时刻太阳在地面的投影点位置,并进一步计算出太阳相对震中的地心天顶距,将地震按天顶距的大小进行统计,得到地震的太阳天顶距地震频度分布。同样的方法,可得地震的月球天顶距地震频度分布。统计发现:地震的太阳天顶距地震频度和月球天顶距地震频度分布表现出一致的规律性,且较大地震和小地震的活动规律不同,较大地震丛集发生在太阳(月球)天顶距0°和180°附近,与地面引潮力的绝对值分布有较好的一致性;而小地震多丛集在太阳(月球)天顶距60°和120°附近。在此基础上,我们对地震的日月天顶距同时进行统计,建立了日月天顶距地震概率密度分布,结果表明,日月投影点及其对蹠点周围,较大地震发生的概率较高。
Based on the ISC earthquake catalogue data,according to the orbit equations of two-body-problem and the perturbation theory of celestial mechanics,we could determine the projection pole of the sun,and thus calculate the zenith distance from the sun to the epicenter.After calculating all the earthquakes on their zenith distances,we could get the distribution of the solar zenith distance versus the occurring probability of earthquakes.By the same method we also obtain the distribution of the lunar zenith distance versus the occurring probability of earthquakes.The results indicate that the distribution of the solar zenith distance versus the occurring probability of earthquakes is quite consistent with the lunar case,and the case for small earthquakes is different from the larger earthquakes.The latter is mainly clustered at 0o and 180o of the zenith distance,and consistent with the distribution of the absolute value of the solar(lunar)tide forces,while the former are clustered at 60o and 120o.Furthermore we set up the solar and the lunar zenith distances versus the occurring probability distribution of earthquakes.The occurring probability of earthquakes near the sun-pole and the moon-pole or their opposite points is higher than the average level.
Based on the ISC earthquake catalogue data,according to the orbit equations of two-body-problem and the perturbation theory of celestial mechanics,we could determine the projection pole of the sun,and thus calculate the zenith distance from the sun to the epicenter.After calculating all the earthquakes on their zenith distances,we could get the distribution of the solar zenith distance versus the occurring probability of earthquakes.By the same method we also obtain the distribution of the lunar zenith distance versus the occurring probability of earthquakes.The results indicate that the distribution of the solar zenith distance versus the occurring probability of earthquakes is quite consistent with the lunar case,and the case for small earthquakes is different from the larger earthquakes.The latter is mainly clustered at 0o and 180o of the zenith distance,and consistent with the distribution of the absolute value of the solar(lunar)tide forces,while the former are clustered at 60o and 120o.Furthermore we set up the solar and the lunar zenith distances versus the occurring probability distribution of earthquakes.The occurring probability of earthquakes near the sun-pole and the moon-pole or their opposite points is higher than the average level.
引文
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[18]LocknerD A&Beeler,NM.Premonitory slip and tidal triggering ofearthquakes.JGeophysRes,1999,104:20,133-20,151
[19]Vidale J E,D C AgnewM J S Johnstom,eta.l Absence ofearthquake correlationwith Earth tides:An indica-tion ofhigh preseimic fault stress rate.JGeophysRes,1998,103:24,567-24,572
[20]http://www.isc.ac.uk/
[21]http://www.scec.org
[22]EngdahlE R and Villase A.Global Seismicity:1900—1999.In:InternationalHandbook ofEarthquake and Engineering Seismology,PartA(W illie Lee,HirooKanamor,i Paul Jennings,and CarlKisslinger eds),(In-ternationalGeophysics,Volume81A),Academic Press,2002
[23]http://mathworld.wolfram.com/SpherePointPicking.html
[2]KonoM,Fuko Y,Yamamoto A.Mountain building in the centralAndes.J Geophy Res,1989,94:3869-3905
[3]Shirley JH.Shallowmoonquakes and large shallow earthquakes:a temporal correlation.Earth PlanetSciLett.1985,76:241
[4]LopesRM C,Malin S R C,Mazzarella A,et a.l Lunar and solar triggering of earthquakes.Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors,1990(59):127-129
[5]高伟,刘蒲雄.地震与太阳、月亮位置的关系(二)———强震余震序列的某些时间特征.地震学报,1996,18(3):333-339
[6]Rydelek P A,Davis PM,KoyanagiR Y.Tidal triggering of earthquake swarms at kilauea volcano,hawai.i Journ GeophysRes,1988,Vo.l93,No.b5:4401-4411
[7]Berrino G,Coppa U,Corrado G.Tidal field and volcanic activity in southern Italy.Proc.11th symp.earth tides,1991
[8]JunzoKasahara.Tides,Earthquakes,and Volcanoes.Science,2002,Vo.l297:348-349
[9]杜品仁.18.6年地震轮回及其成因初探.地球物理学报,1994,37(3):362-369
[10]杜品仁.全球主要地震区中原和深源大地震的18.6年轮回.地球物理学报,1996,37(3):327-335
[11]Sadeh D S,MeidavM.Search for sideral periodicity in earthquake occurrences.JGeophysRes,1973,Vo.l78,No.32:7709-7716
[12]YangX X,HanY B,Chen Z,et a.l New evidence of earthquake and volcano triggering by strong tides.Chi-nese JGeophys-ch,Jul2004,47(4):616-621
[13]Tanaka S,M Ohtake,andH Sato.Evidence for tidal triggering ofearthquakes as revealed from statistical anal-ysis of global data.JGeophysRes,2002,107(B10):2211,do:i10.1029/2001JB001577
[14]吴小平,冒蔚,黄雍.天体潮汐与地震.天文学进展,2001,19(1):45-54
[15]WuX P,HuangY,MaoW eta.l Tidal stress triggeringmechanism of earthquakes inYunnan and related pat-terns of celestial body positions.Chinese JGeophys-ch,MAY2005,48(3):574-583
[16]Brodsky E E,Roeloffs E,Woodcock D,et a.l A mechanism for sustained groundwater pressure changes in-duced by distant earthquakes.JGeophysRes,2003,B108,do:i10.1029/2002Jb0002321
[17]H Perfettin,i J Schmittbuh,l A Cochard.Shear and normal load perturbations on a two-dimensional continueous fault:1.Stiatic triggering.JGeophysRes,2003,Vo.l108,No.B9:2048,do:i10.1029/2002JB001804
[18]LocknerD A&Beeler,NM.Premonitory slip and tidal triggering ofearthquakes.JGeophysRes,1999,104:20,133-20,151
[19]Vidale J E,D C AgnewM J S Johnstom,eta.l Absence ofearthquake correlationwith Earth tides:An indica-tion ofhigh preseimic fault stress rate.JGeophysRes,1998,103:24,567-24,572
[20]http://www.isc.ac.uk/
[21]http://www.scec.org
[22]EngdahlE R and Villase A.Global Seismicity:1900—1999.In:InternationalHandbook ofEarthquake and Engineering Seismology,PartA(W illie Lee,HirooKanamor,i Paul Jennings,and CarlKisslinger eds),(In-ternationalGeophysics,Volume81A),Academic Press,2002
[23]http://mathworld.wolfram.com/SpherePointPicking.html
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