华北地区地震活动的月相效应及其预测意义
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摘要
对华北地区1970年以来ML4．0以上地震的月相效应进行了分析。结果表明，华北地区Ms5．0以上地震活动的月相效应并不明显，而是呈现较强的随机性。但在7级以上强震发生前，中等地震的发生具有较为明显的月相效应，这对7级以上强震的发生具有中期（1～3年）预测意义。未来强震可能发生在“朔望地震”分布的地区。目前，华北地区中等地震发生没有显示明显的月相效应，因此未来1～2年内华北地区发生7级以上地震的可能性较小。
The effect of lunar phase of earthquakes with M. ≥4. 0 occurred in North China since 1970 is analyzed. The results indicate that the occurrence of earthquakes with Ms ≥5. 0 does not show correlation with the lunar phase and is obviously stochastic. Before the strong earthquakes with Ms ≥7. 0, however, the occurrence of the moderate earthquake is obviously related to the lunar phase. It is significant in the medium-and short-term predic-tion of earthquakes Ms ≥7. 0. When the moderate earthquakes occur near the period of new moon or full moon, the future strong earthquakes would occur. At Present , the oc-currence of the moderate earthquakes in North China does not show correlation to the lu-nar phase , so theposslbllity of the occurrence of earthquakes with Ms ≥7. 0 will be rela-tively low.
The effect of lunar phase of earthquakes with M. ≥4. 0 occurred in North China since 1970 is analyzed. The results indicate that the occurrence of earthquakes with Ms ≥5. 0 does not show correlation with the lunar phase and is obviously stochastic. Before the strong earthquakes with Ms ≥7. 0, however, the occurrence of the moderate earthquake is obviously related to the lunar phase. It is significant in the medium-and short-term predic-tion of earthquakes Ms ≥7. 0. When the moderate earthquakes occur near the period of new moon or full moon, the future strong earthquakes would occur. At Present , the oc-currence of the moderate earthquakes in North China does not show correlation to the lu-nar phase , so theposslbllity of the occurrence of earthquakes with Ms ≥7. 0 will be rela-tively low.
引文
1Knoqoff L.Earth tides as a triggering mechanism for earthquakes.Bull Seis Soc Am, 1964, 54: 1865～ 1870.
2Dix LH.Triggering of some earthquakes Proc Japan Acad,XL,1964,6:410～415.
3Ryall A,Van WormerJ D. Jones A E. Triggering of microearthquakes by earth tides and other features of the Truckee,California,earthquake sequence of September,1966. Bull Seism Soc Am,1968,58:215～ 248.
4Simpson J F.Earth tides as a triggering mechanism for earthquakes.Earth and Planetary Science Let- ters,1967,2:473～478.
5Heaton T H.Tidal triggering of earthquakes. Geophys J R astr Soc,1975,43:307～326.
6杜品仁.潮汐与地震关系初探地震科学研究,1981,1:14～20.
7高锡铭,殷志山,王威中,等。固体潮应力张量对地震的触发作用.地壳形变与地震,1981,(1):4～16。
2Dix LH.Triggering of some earthquakes Proc Japan Acad,XL,1964,6:410～415.
3Ryall A,Van WormerJ D. Jones A E. Triggering of microearthquakes by earth tides and other features of the Truckee,California,earthquake sequence of September,1966. Bull Seism Soc Am,1968,58:215～ 248.
4Simpson J F.Earth tides as a triggering mechanism for earthquakes.Earth and Planetary Science Let- ters,1967,2:473～478.
5Heaton T H.Tidal triggering of earthquakes. Geophys J R astr Soc,1975,43:307～326.
6杜品仁.潮汐与地震关系初探地震科学研究,1981,1:14～20.
7高锡铭,殷志山,王威中,等。固体潮应力张量对地震的触发作用.地壳形变与地震,1981,(1):4～16。
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