地震灾害链概率分析及断链减灾方法
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摘要
通过引入灾害链理论对城市及石化系统因破坏性地震作用而引发的次生灾害进行研究。基于灾害链理论分析地震灾害链的成灾机理,建立基于主要影响因素的地震灾害链物理模型,通过对灾害要素间内在联系初步构建定量分析的概率评估模型;经算例分析评估给出次生灾害的发生概率,找出地震灾害链中各灾害要素间的关键环节,提出针对性的断链措施建议;最后,给出基于地震灾害链原理的断链减灾方法的一般步骤。研究成果为震前的次生灾害预防、震后采取有效的应急措施提供新的评估方法。
By introducing the disaster chain theory,earthquake secondary disaster of urban and petrochemical system caused by the destructive earthquake has been studied.Based on the disaster chain theory,mechanism analysis of earthquake disaster chain has been carried out.According to the main factors,physical model of earthquake disaster chain has been established.And then,quantitative probability model has been given preliminarily.As an example,probability of earthquake secondary disaster has been calculated,thus the key links in the earthquake disaster chain have been identified and the measures of chain-cutting have been suggested.Final,the general steps of chain-cutting disaster mitigation method have been given.As a new assessment method,the result will be benefited to the prevention of secondary disaster and the earthquake emergency.
By introducing the disaster chain theory,earthquake secondary disaster of urban and petrochemical system caused by the destructive earthquake has been studied.Based on the disaster chain theory,mechanism analysis of earthquake disaster chain has been carried out.According to the main factors,physical model of earthquake disaster chain has been established.And then,quantitative probability model has been given preliminarily.As an example,probability of earthquake secondary disaster has been calculated,thus the key links in the earthquake disaster chain have been identified and the measures of chain-cutting have been suggested.Final,the general steps of chain-cutting disaster mitigation method have been given.As a new assessment method,the result will be benefited to the prevention of secondary disaster and the earthquake emergency.
引文
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[2]刘文方,等.自然灾害链及其断链减灾模式分析[J.]岩石力学与工程学报,2006,25(S1):2675-2681(LiuWenfang,et al.Analysis of nature chain and chain-cuttingdisaster mitigation model[J.]Chinese Journal of RockMechanics and Engineering,2006,25(S1):2675-2681(inChinese))
[3]宋正海.关于自然灾害链的几点宏观思考[C/]/中国首届灾害链学术研讨会论文集,2006
[4]肖盛燮.生态环境灾变链式理论原创结构梗概[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2006,25(S1):2603-2611(XiaoShengxie.Originality structure sketch on chain-styled theoryof disaster in eco-environment[J.]Chinese Journal of RockMechanics and Engineering,2006,25(S1):2603-2611(inChinese))
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[6]张乃禄,刘灿.安全评价技术[M.]西安:西安电子科技大学出版社,2007
[2]刘文方,等.自然灾害链及其断链减灾模式分析[J.]岩石力学与工程学报,2006,25(S1):2675-2681(LiuWenfang,et al.Analysis of nature chain and chain-cuttingdisaster mitigation model[J.]Chinese Journal of RockMechanics and Engineering,2006,25(S1):2675-2681(inChinese))
[3]宋正海.关于自然灾害链的几点宏观思考[C/]/中国首届灾害链学术研讨会论文集,2006
[4]肖盛燮.生态环境灾变链式理论原创结构梗概[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2006,25(S1):2603-2611(XiaoShengxie.Originality structure sketch on chain-styled theoryof disaster in eco-environment[J.]Chinese Journal of RockMechanics and Engineering,2006,25(S1):2603-2611(inChinese))
[5]郭增建,秦保燕.灾害物理学简论[J.]灾害学,1987,2:25-33
[6]张乃禄,刘灿.安全评价技术[M.]西安:西安电子科技大学出版社,2007
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