地震云预测地震续探
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摘要
概述了地震云预测地震的历史;简介了国内外主要地震工作者关于地震云的识别标志、时空动态与地震三要素关系的论述及其实际预测效果;剖析了地震云的形成机制;列举了作者用其预测的几个震例;最后对其作了评价和结论,认为:震前地震云和红外增温异常是地震构造加剧活动派生的同源异象的气象效应。两者结合利于互相补充、验证,前者出现时间早些,可达3个多月,后者一般10多天。可形成地震地质为基础,长、中、短、临一体化的卫星预测地震系统。
The history of forecasting earthquakes by earthquake clouds is summarized briefly. It introduces the recognition marks of earthquake clouds, the relation between time- spatial dynamic of earthquake clouds and the three elements of earthquake, and forecast result by earthquake clouds; It analyzes the formation mechanisms of earthquake clouds and presents several seismic cases which have forecasted by earthquake clouds. Lastly, it points out estimations and conclusion. The earthquake clouds and anomaly of thermal infrared incerease before earthquake are the homologous anomalies of meteorological effect which intensifying of seismic tectonic activity produces. The former appear early and the latter appear late. They make up and validate each other. The earthquake forecast system by satellite on the base of seismogeology, which include long- , medium- , short- term and impending prediction, will be formed.
The history of forecasting earthquakes by earthquake clouds is summarized briefly. It introduces the recognition marks of earthquake clouds, the relation between time- spatial dynamic of earthquake clouds and the three elements of earthquake, and forecast result by earthquake clouds; It analyzes the formation mechanisms of earthquake clouds and presents several seismic cases which have forecasted by earthquake clouds. Lastly, it points out estimations and conclusion. The earthquake clouds and anomaly of thermal infrared incerease before earthquake are the homologous anomalies of meteorological effect which intensifying of seismic tectonic activity produces. The former appear early and the latter appear late. They make up and validate each other. The earthquake forecast system by satellite on the base of seismogeology, which include long- , medium- , short- term and impending prediction, will be formed.
引文
1[苏联]ropнbIйBи(等著,徐秀登,译.地球热红外幅射——地震活动性的标志.地震地质译丛,1990(;2):38—39
2[苏联]MopoзвА.А著,徐秀登,译.现代地质学中岩石圈与大气圈的联系问题,地震地质译丛,1990;(2),33—34
3杜乐天,强祖基.特异自然灾害发生的内因——地球排气作用,特大自然灾害预测的新途径和新方法.北京:科学出版社,2002:66—70
4郭增建,秦保燕,郭安宁.地气耦合与天灾预测.北京:地震出版社,1966:1
2[苏联]MopoзвА.А著,徐秀登,译.现代地质学中岩石圈与大气圈的联系问题,地震地质译丛,1990;(2),33—34
3杜乐天,强祖基.特异自然灾害发生的内因——地球排气作用,特大自然灾害预测的新途径和新方法.北京:科学出版社,2002:66—70
4郭增建,秦保燕,郭安宁.地气耦合与天灾预测.北京:地震出版社,1966:1
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