准静电场异常与地震——一种可靠短临地震前兆信息探索
|
摘要
本专辑通过对白家疃及部分华北地区大气电场观测网点资料与近场地震关系研究 ,系统地介绍一种可靠地震短临前兆信息的探索研究过程及初步结果 ,全文共分为 1 0个专题。首先简要介绍了地震灾害、地震测量和地震烈度。同时简述了国内外有关地震预测研究的看法和争论。并阐述了作者的认识和看法 :经验性的统计预测不应成为地震预测研究的主流和方向 ,确定性地震预测研究才是解决地震预报问题的唯一途径。确定性地震预测研究依赖于可靠地震前兆信息的获得。可靠前兆仅存于能在各种介质中进行连续有效传播并能在地表观测到的物理量中 ,如电场、磁场和重力场。通过对震前动物行为异常、地光等公认宏观地震前兆成因机理研究以及地电、大气电观测研究结果的综合分析后得出 :震前电场异常确有可能成为开展可靠地震短临前兆观测研究的理想领域之一。但其随机性及难于识别和提取等弊端 ,又使其现在还不能成为可靠地震前兆。毋庸置疑 ,信息的微弱性、干扰背景复杂和强烈性是造成上述结果的根本原因。因此 ,选择克服上述弊端的有效观测途径是该领域能否取得进展和突破的关键。在地震电异常的观测研究中 ,弄清其属性对于获得可靠地震前兆信息是至关重要的。低频电具有强电和弱电两种不同的表现形式 ,强电不仅有持续不?
Brief Introduction of Contents This monograph systematically described the exploratory process and preliminary research result of a reliable short term and imminent earthquake precursor information by using the data of atmospheric electric field near the ground surface observed at Baijiatuan and in part of the North China region.The whole book consists of ten special topics.First of all,the seismic disaster,seismometry and earthquake intensity are briefly introduced.At the same time,the views and controversies about earthquake prediction in China and other countries are briefly outlined.Besides,the authors' understanding and views are also given:the statistical prediction of empirical nature should not be the main trend and direction of earthquake prediction research;instead,deterministic earthquake prediction research is the unique way for solving the problem of earthquake prediction. Deterministic earthquake prediction research depends on the acquisition of information on reliable earthquake precursors.Reliable precursors exist only in those physical quantities which can propagate continuously and effectively in various media and can be observed near the ground surface,such as the electric field,magnetic field and gravitational field.From the study of the genetic mechanisms of some commonly accepted earthquake precursors such as preseismic animal behavior anomaly,earthquake light,etc.,and the comprehensive analysis of research results of geoelectricity,atmospheric electricity,etc.,it has been known that preseismic anomaly of electric field is indeed possible to become one of the ideal fields for developing observational study of short term and imminent earthquake precursors.However,its drawbacks such as the randomness and difficulty in identification and extraction,etc.,have also made it difficult to become a reliable earthquake precursor.It is beyond doubt that the weakness of information and the complexity and strength of interfering background are the basic causes responsible for the above situation.Therefore,the choice of an effective observation way and method to surmount the above mentioned drawbacks is the key that determines whether development and breakthrough can be made in this field or not.In the observational research of earthquake electric anomaly,to clarify its attribute is crucial for obtaining earthquake precursor information.Low frequency electricity appears in two forms:heavy current and weak current.Heavy current not only has a source that can unceasingly supply energy but also has transmission paths of high conductivity;it is usually detected by measuring voltage or current.In contrast,weak current is static electricity;it has its own features and form of expression;the method of measuring it is also completely different from that of heavy current.It is doubtless that earthquake electric field is a weak electric field.Therefore,it is hopeful to find out and extract useful precursory information only when the instrument and method for observing weak current are used in accordance with the rule and feature of weak electric field,i.e.,static or quasi static electric field.To observe the earthquake electric field by means of method and equipment for heavy current measurement not only is difficult but also can hardly be successful. Static electric field has several main and obvious features.First,it can effectively propagate in various media,or even in vacuum.Second,it is of small energy but high potential.Third,it is likely to produce surface charge accumulation on the surface of highly conductive layer,and hence makes the local electric field greatly intensified.In addition to these features,develop the observation of electric field in vertical direction just overcomes the difficulties encountered in identifying and extracting the weak earthquake electric field and eliminating the strong interference in horizontal direction.For this reason,it is hopeful that the observation of atmospheric electric field can become an effective way and method for finding out and extracting reliable information.
Brief Introduction of Contents This monograph systematically described the exploratory process and preliminary research result of a reliable short term and imminent earthquake precursor information by using the data of atmospheric electric field near the ground surface observed at Baijiatuan and in part of the North China region.The whole book consists of ten special topics.First of all,the seismic disaster,seismometry and earthquake intensity are briefly introduced.At the same time,the views and controversies about earthquake prediction in China and other countries are briefly outlined.Besides,the authors' understanding and views are also given:the statistical prediction of empirical nature should not be the main trend and direction of earthquake prediction research;instead,deterministic earthquake prediction research is the unique way for solving the problem of earthquake prediction. Deterministic earthquake prediction research depends on the acquisition of information on reliable earthquake precursors.Reliable precursors exist only in those physical quantities which can propagate continuously and effectively in various media and can be observed near the ground surface,such as the electric field,magnetic field and gravitational field.From the study of the genetic mechanisms of some commonly accepted earthquake precursors such as preseismic animal behavior anomaly,earthquake light,etc.,and the comprehensive analysis of research results of geoelectricity,atmospheric electricity,etc.,it has been known that preseismic anomaly of electric field is indeed possible to become one of the ideal fields for developing observational study of short term and imminent earthquake precursors.However,its drawbacks such as the randomness and difficulty in identification and extraction,etc.,have also made it difficult to become a reliable earthquake precursor.It is beyond doubt that the weakness of information and the complexity and strength of interfering background are the basic causes responsible for the above situation.Therefore,the choice of an effective observation way and method to surmount the above mentioned drawbacks is the key that determines whether development and breakthrough can be made in this field or not.In the observational research of earthquake electric anomaly,to clarify its attribute is crucial for obtaining earthquake precursor information.Low frequency electricity appears in two forms:heavy current and weak current.Heavy current not only has a source that can unceasingly supply energy but also has transmission paths of high conductivity;it is usually detected by measuring voltage or current.In contrast,weak current is static electricity;it has its own features and form of expression;the method of measuring it is also completely different from that of heavy current.It is doubtless that earthquake electric field is a weak electric field.Therefore,it is hopeful to find out and extract useful precursory information only when the instrument and method for observing weak current are used in accordance with the rule and feature of weak electric field,i.e.,static or quasi static electric field.To observe the earthquake electric field by means of method and equipment for heavy current measurement not only is difficult but also can hardly be successful. Static electric field has several main and obvious features.First,it can effectively propagate in various media,or even in vacuum.Second,it is of small energy but high potential.Third,it is likely to produce surface charge accumulation on the surface of highly conductive layer,and hence makes the local electric field greatly intensified.In addition to these features,develop the observation of electric field in vertical direction just overcomes the difficulties encountered in identifying and extracting the weak earthquake electric field and eliminating the strong interference in horizontal direction.For this reason,it is hopeful that the observation of atmospheric electric field can become an effective way and method for finding out and extracting reliable information.
引文
安徽省地震局编 ,1 978.宏观异常与地震 .北京 :地震出版社 ,1 3～ 1 2 9
包德修 ,和仁道 ,马伟林 . 1 991 .地震电磁效应的偶电体模型 .中国地震 ,7(4) :83～ 86
陈立德 ,任志洪 ,何宏伟 ,徐渝生 ,郑文兴 ,李克兴 ,李敏 ,王岭云 . 1 986.一种新型电磁波观测装置—深井垂直天线震前电磁波观测的初步结果 .见 :中国地震学会第三次全国地震科学学术讨论会论文摘要汇编 ,中国地震学会 ,1 83～ 1 84
关华平 ,刘桂萍 . 1 995.震前电磁辐射异常与地震关系研究 .地震学报 ,1 7(2 ) :2 37～ 2 4 6
关华平 ,张宏魁 ,鲁跃 ,余素荣 ,陈智勇 . 1 999.怀来台震前超低频电场与地震关系研究 .地震 ,1 9(2 ) :1 4 2～ 1 4 8
国家地震局赴希腊地震代表团 . 1 992 .中国地震代表团赴希腊访问考察 .国际地震动态 ,1 2 :1 2～ 1 6
国家地震局情报资料室编 . 1 983.中、日、苏、美地震预报研究计划和现状 .北京 :地震出版社
国家地震局科技监测司编 . 1 994.首都圈地震短临预报新方法观测与研究 .北京 :地震出版社 ,1 55
郝建国 . 1 981 .近地表大气电位梯度扰动是地震预报有希望的前兆现象之一 .中国物理学会静电专业委员会成立大会论文集
郝建国 . 1 988.近地表大气电场异常与地震 .地震学报 ,1 0 (2 ) :2 0 6～ 2 1 2
郝建国 ,柳松 . 1 990 .大气电场观测研究在近场地震短临预报中的应用 .中国地震 ,6(3) :87～ 91
郝建国 ,潘怀文 ,李德瑞 . 1 993.震前大气电场异常的区域性特性 .地震 ,1 3(6) :48～ 54
郝建国 ,潘怀文 ,李德瑞 ,刘小芹 . 1 994. 1 989年大同 -阳高 6.1级地震前的大气电场异常特征 .山西地震 ,76:47～ 52
郝建国 ,张云福 ,潘怀文 ,李德瑞 ,唐天明 ,刘小芹 . 1 995.震前极低频电磁异常及其频谱特征 .地震学报 ,1 7(1 ) :81～ 88
郝建国 ,唐天明 ,李德瑞 . 1 998a.一种地震短临前兆信息—震前大气电场异常研究 .地震学报 ,2 0 (1 )10 1～ 1 0 8
郝建国 ,唐天明 ,李德瑞 . 1 998b.大气电场异常作为地震前兆信息效能的统计评估 .中国地震 ,1 4 (2 ) :1 67～ 1 72
郝建国 ,唐天明 ,李德瑞 . 1 998c.大气电场异常作为地震短临预报标志研究进展 .地震 ,1 8(3) :2 4 5～ 2 56
黄录基 ,邓汉增 . 1 979.地光 .北京 :地震出版社 ,1 0 6～ 1 39
蒋锦昌编写 . 1 980 .动物与地震预测 .国家地震局编印
卢昆亮 ,白德宝 . 1 980 .一种新设计的大气电场仪 .高原气象 ,3 (4) :45～ 53
罗福山 ,庄洪春 . 1 993. KDY型旋转式大气电场仪 .电测与仪表 ,4:1 7～ 2 1
毛浦森 . 1 986.介绍震前收到的电磁波异常 .地震学报 ,8(1 ) :1 0 5～ 1 1 1
毛浦森 . 1 996.包头 6.4级地震预测与震前电磁辐射 .地震地质 ,1 8(4) :31 0～ 31 2
祁贵仲 . 1 978.“膨胀”磁效应 .地球物理学报 ,2 1 (1 ) :1 8～ 33
钱书清 ,郝锦绮 . 1 994.与地震预报有关的电磁现象国际讨论会概况 .国际地震动态 ,2 :1 1～ 1 6
施志远编著 . 1 993.动物预报地震的奥秘 .北京 :科学普及出版社 ,92
孙士宏 . 1 998.对我国地震预报水平的认识 .国际地震动态 ,3:2 8～ 32
唐天明 . 1 999.太阳活动、磁暴与震前大气电场异常关系研究 .地震地磁观测与研究 ,2 0 (4) :35～ 39
孙景群编著 . 1 987.大气电学基础 .北京 :气象出版社 ,31 6
孙正江 ,王华俊编 . 1 984.地电概论 .北京 :地震出版社 ,30 8
朱传真 ,刘蒲雄 ,叶洪 . 1 990 .美国加州洛马普列塔 7.1级地震概况 .国际地震动态 ,5:8～ 1 4
张德齐 ,王盛飞 ,张念孝 . 1 987.临震电磁波前兆的观测研究 .地震学报 ,9(4) :434～ 442
赵明 ,刘元壮 ,张天中 . 1 999.大气电场异常判别及预报效能的统计检验 .地震 ,1 9(3) :2 81～ 2 87
王六桥 . 1 997.试论地震预报研究 .地震学报 ,1 9(1 ) :99～ 1 0 1
文荆江编著 . 1 978.静电及其应用 .北京 :科学出版社 ,1 0 2
吴忠良 . 1 998.自组织临界性与地震预测—对目前地震预测争论的评述 (之一 ) .中国地震 ,1 4 (4) :1～ 1 0
张兆诚 ,王贵宣 ,郑大林 . 1 997.地震前兆含义、科学问题与研究途径的研讨 .地震 ,1 7(4) :42 9～ 439
中国地震学会地震前兆专业委员会 . 1 991 .IASPEL邀请全世界科学家参与推荐和评选优秀地震前兆震例的活动 .地震 ,1 1 (2 ) :1～ 1 4
中国地震代表团赴希腊访问考察 .国际地震动态 ,1 2 :1 2～ 1 6
徐世浙 . 1 979.关于压磁效应和膨胀磁效应 .地震学报 ,1 (1 ) :76～ 81
郑兆芯 . 1 999.前兆异常与地震相关性评价中的不确定性— VAN方法讨论引起的思考 .国际地震动态 ,2 :1 3～ 1 8
池谷元伺 ,松本裕史 ,黄清华 . 1 998.作为地震动物异常行为的蚕的定向排列以及断层的电磁理论—理论与实验 .地震学报 ,2 0 (3) :30 8～ 31 6
今森博雄 . 1 991 .地震の物理 .岩波书店 ,2 4 7力武常次著 . 1 978.地震预报 .地震出版社 ,8～ 1 2
尾池和夫 ,小川俊雄 . 1 982 .地震に伴ろ电磁放射の观测 .京都大学防灾研究所年报 .第 2 5号 B— 1 :89～ 1 0 0
藤绳幸雄 ,高桥耕三 ,熊谷贞治 . 1 990 .地震直前先行现象としての极低周波地中电界变动 .地震 ,43(2 ) :2 87～ 2 90
高桥武彦 . 1 976.电化学概论 .北京 :科学出版社德尔等 . 1 993.地质前的水文异常与发光现象 .国际地震动态 ,9:2 6
Lan Main,1 999.单个地震的可靠预测是一个现实的科学目标吗 ?国际地震动态 ,6:1 9～ 2 1
Leon Knopoff,1 999.地震预测是困难的但并非不可能 .国际地震动态 ,6:2 9～ 31
Max Wyss,1 999.还不能 ,但最终能 .国际地震动态 ,6:2 3～ 2 4
Hao Jianguo,1 989. Near earth surface anomalies of the atmopherec electric field and earthquakes. ACTASeismologica Sinica,2 ,2 ,2 89～ 2 98
Hao Jianguo and Liu Song,1 991 . Research on Electrical Firld Anomalies Near the Earth's Surface andTheir Application to the Short- term Prediction of Local Earthquakes. Earthquake Research in China,5,4,367～ 373
Jian- Guo HAO,Yun- Fu ZHANG,Huai- Wen PAN,De- Rui LI,Tian- Ming TANG and Xiao- Qin LIU,1 995Ultra low frequency electromagnetic wave anomaly and its spectrum characteristics before earthquakes.ACTA Seismologica Sinica,8,1 ,1 0 1～ 1 0 9
JIAN- GUO HAO,TIAN- MING TANG and DE- RUI LI,1 998.A Kind of information on short- term andimminent earthquake precursors- research on atmospheric electric field anomalies before earthquakes,ACTA Seismological Sinica,1 1 ,1 ,1 2 1～ 1 31
Hao Jianguo,Tang Tianming and Li Derui,1 998.Evaluating the Statistical Validity Regarding Static Elec-tric Field Anomalies as Earthquake Precursors,Earthquake Research in China.1 2 ,4,40 5～ 41 2
C H Scholz,L R Sykes and Y P Aggarwal,1 973.Earthquake prediction:A physical basis.Sciencee,1 81 :80 3～ 81 0
D A Rhoades,F F Evison,1 996.The VAN earthquake predictions,Geophys Ses Letters.2 3(1 1 ) :1 371～ 1 373
D D Jackson,1 996.Earthquake prediction evaluation standards applied to the VAN method.Geophys ResLett,2 3(1 1 ) :1 363～ 1 366
Finkelstein D and JR Powell,1 973.The Piezoelectric theory of earthquake ligtning.JGeophys.,78(6) :992～ 993
G A Sobolev,1 975.Application of electric to the Tentative Sort- Term forecast of Kamchatka Earth-quakes,Pagoph,Vol(1 1 3) :2 2 9～ 2 35
Geller R,Jackson D,Kagan Y and Mulargia F,1 997.Earthquakes cannotbe predicted.Science,2 75:1 61 6～ 1 61
G N Stavrakakis,JDrakopoulos,1 996.The VAN method Cantradetory and misleading resultssince 1 981 .Geophys Ses Letters,2 3(1 1 ) :1 347～ 1 35
0K Oike and Okawa,1 986.Electromagnetic Radiations from Shallow Earthquakes Observed in LF Range.JGeolectr.,38:1 0 31～ 1 0 4 0
Kondo G,1 968.The Atmospheic Electric Field atthe time of earthquake.Memoirsofthe Kakioka MagneticObservatory,1 3(1 )Mason B J,1 971 .The Physics of Clouds.Oxford University Press,1 73～ 1 92
M N Berdichevsky etal,1 976.Deep electromagnetic investigations.Ann.Peophys,32 :1 4 3～ 1 55
Mulargia F,P Gasperini,1 992 .Evaluating the statistical validity beyond chance of VAN earthquake precur-sors,Geophys.JInt,1 1 1 :32～ 44
P Varotsos,K Alexopoulos,1 984.Physical properties of the variationsof the electricfield of the earth pre-ceding earthquakes,( , ) .Tectonphysics,1 1 0 (73～ 98)
P Varotsos,K Eftaxias,F Vallianatos,M Lozaridou,1 996.Basis priciples for evaluating an earthquakepredication method.Geophys Res Letters,2 3(1 1 ) :1 2 95～ 1 2 98
P Varotsos,K Eftaxias,F Vallianatos,M Lozaridou,1 996.Basis principles for evaluating an earthquakeprediction method.Geophys Res Lett,2 3(1 1 1 ) :1 2 95～ 1 2 98
R JGeller,1 996.Debate on evaluation of the VAN method:Editor's introduction.Peophys Res Letters,2 3(1 1 ) :1 2 91～ 1 2 93
Terrada T,1 993.On luminous phenomina accompanied with earthquakes.Bulletin of the Earthquake Re-search Institute Tokyo Imperial University,Vol Toshio Ogwaw,Kazuo Oike,Taiji Miura,1 985.Electromagnetic radiation From Rocks.JGeophys.Re-search,90 (D4) :62 4 5～ 62 4 9
Yukio Fujinawa and Kozo Takahashi 1 990 .Emission ofelectromagnetic radiation preceding the Ito seismicswarm of 1 989.Nature,347(62 91 ) :376～ 378
Valley S L (ED) ,1 966.Handbook of Geophysics and Space Environments,New York,Mc- Graw- HillChalmers JA,1 967.Atmospheric Electricity,Pergamon prss
Yukio Fujinawa,Teiji Kumagai and Takahashi,1 992 .A study of anomalousunderground electric field vari-ations associated with volcanic eruption,Geophys Res Letters,1 9(1 ) :9～ 1 2
包德修 ,和仁道 ,马伟林 . 1 991 .地震电磁效应的偶电体模型 .中国地震 ,7(4) :83～ 86
陈立德 ,任志洪 ,何宏伟 ,徐渝生 ,郑文兴 ,李克兴 ,李敏 ,王岭云 . 1 986.一种新型电磁波观测装置—深井垂直天线震前电磁波观测的初步结果 .见 :中国地震学会第三次全国地震科学学术讨论会论文摘要汇编 ,中国地震学会 ,1 83～ 1 84
关华平 ,刘桂萍 . 1 995.震前电磁辐射异常与地震关系研究 .地震学报 ,1 7(2 ) :2 37～ 2 4 6
关华平 ,张宏魁 ,鲁跃 ,余素荣 ,陈智勇 . 1 999.怀来台震前超低频电场与地震关系研究 .地震 ,1 9(2 ) :1 4 2～ 1 4 8
国家地震局赴希腊地震代表团 . 1 992 .中国地震代表团赴希腊访问考察 .国际地震动态 ,1 2 :1 2～ 1 6
国家地震局情报资料室编 . 1 983.中、日、苏、美地震预报研究计划和现状 .北京 :地震出版社
国家地震局科技监测司编 . 1 994.首都圈地震短临预报新方法观测与研究 .北京 :地震出版社 ,1 55
郝建国 . 1 981 .近地表大气电位梯度扰动是地震预报有希望的前兆现象之一 .中国物理学会静电专业委员会成立大会论文集
郝建国 . 1 988.近地表大气电场异常与地震 .地震学报 ,1 0 (2 ) :2 0 6～ 2 1 2
郝建国 ,柳松 . 1 990 .大气电场观测研究在近场地震短临预报中的应用 .中国地震 ,6(3) :87～ 91
郝建国 ,潘怀文 ,李德瑞 . 1 993.震前大气电场异常的区域性特性 .地震 ,1 3(6) :48～ 54
郝建国 ,潘怀文 ,李德瑞 ,刘小芹 . 1 994. 1 989年大同 -阳高 6.1级地震前的大气电场异常特征 .山西地震 ,76:47～ 52
郝建国 ,张云福 ,潘怀文 ,李德瑞 ,唐天明 ,刘小芹 . 1 995.震前极低频电磁异常及其频谱特征 .地震学报 ,1 7(1 ) :81～ 88
郝建国 ,唐天明 ,李德瑞 . 1 998a.一种地震短临前兆信息—震前大气电场异常研究 .地震学报 ,2 0 (1 )10 1～ 1 0 8
郝建国 ,唐天明 ,李德瑞 . 1 998b.大气电场异常作为地震前兆信息效能的统计评估 .中国地震 ,1 4 (2 ) :1 67～ 1 72
郝建国 ,唐天明 ,李德瑞 . 1 998c.大气电场异常作为地震短临预报标志研究进展 .地震 ,1 8(3) :2 4 5～ 2 56
黄录基 ,邓汉增 . 1 979.地光 .北京 :地震出版社 ,1 0 6～ 1 39
蒋锦昌编写 . 1 980 .动物与地震预测 .国家地震局编印
卢昆亮 ,白德宝 . 1 980 .一种新设计的大气电场仪 .高原气象 ,3 (4) :45～ 53
罗福山 ,庄洪春 . 1 993. KDY型旋转式大气电场仪 .电测与仪表 ,4:1 7～ 2 1
毛浦森 . 1 986.介绍震前收到的电磁波异常 .地震学报 ,8(1 ) :1 0 5～ 1 1 1
毛浦森 . 1 996.包头 6.4级地震预测与震前电磁辐射 .地震地质 ,1 8(4) :31 0～ 31 2
祁贵仲 . 1 978.“膨胀”磁效应 .地球物理学报 ,2 1 (1 ) :1 8～ 33
钱书清 ,郝锦绮 . 1 994.与地震预报有关的电磁现象国际讨论会概况 .国际地震动态 ,2 :1 1～ 1 6
施志远编著 . 1 993.动物预报地震的奥秘 .北京 :科学普及出版社 ,92
孙士宏 . 1 998.对我国地震预报水平的认识 .国际地震动态 ,3:2 8～ 32
唐天明 . 1 999.太阳活动、磁暴与震前大气电场异常关系研究 .地震地磁观测与研究 ,2 0 (4) :35～ 39
孙景群编著 . 1 987.大气电学基础 .北京 :气象出版社 ,31 6
孙正江 ,王华俊编 . 1 984.地电概论 .北京 :地震出版社 ,30 8
朱传真 ,刘蒲雄 ,叶洪 . 1 990 .美国加州洛马普列塔 7.1级地震概况 .国际地震动态 ,5:8～ 1 4
张德齐 ,王盛飞 ,张念孝 . 1 987.临震电磁波前兆的观测研究 .地震学报 ,9(4) :434～ 442
赵明 ,刘元壮 ,张天中 . 1 999.大气电场异常判别及预报效能的统计检验 .地震 ,1 9(3) :2 81～ 2 87
王六桥 . 1 997.试论地震预报研究 .地震学报 ,1 9(1 ) :99～ 1 0 1
文荆江编著 . 1 978.静电及其应用 .北京 :科学出版社 ,1 0 2
吴忠良 . 1 998.自组织临界性与地震预测—对目前地震预测争论的评述 (之一 ) .中国地震 ,1 4 (4) :1～ 1 0
张兆诚 ,王贵宣 ,郑大林 . 1 997.地震前兆含义、科学问题与研究途径的研讨 .地震 ,1 7(4) :42 9～ 439
中国地震学会地震前兆专业委员会 . 1 991 .IASPEL邀请全世界科学家参与推荐和评选优秀地震前兆震例的活动 .地震 ,1 1 (2 ) :1～ 1 4
中国地震代表团赴希腊访问考察 .国际地震动态 ,1 2 :1 2～ 1 6
徐世浙 . 1 979.关于压磁效应和膨胀磁效应 .地震学报 ,1 (1 ) :76～ 81
郑兆芯 . 1 999.前兆异常与地震相关性评价中的不确定性— VAN方法讨论引起的思考 .国际地震动态 ,2 :1 3～ 1 8
池谷元伺 ,松本裕史 ,黄清华 . 1 998.作为地震动物异常行为的蚕的定向排列以及断层的电磁理论—理论与实验 .地震学报 ,2 0 (3) :30 8～ 31 6
今森博雄 . 1 991 .地震の物理 .岩波书店 ,2 4 7力武常次著 . 1 978.地震预报 .地震出版社 ,8～ 1 2
尾池和夫 ,小川俊雄 . 1 982 .地震に伴ろ电磁放射の观测 .京都大学防灾研究所年报 .第 2 5号 B— 1 :89～ 1 0 0
藤绳幸雄 ,高桥耕三 ,熊谷贞治 . 1 990 .地震直前先行现象としての极低周波地中电界变动 .地震 ,43(2 ) :2 87～ 2 90
高桥武彦 . 1 976.电化学概论 .北京 :科学出版社德尔等 . 1 993.地质前的水文异常与发光现象 .国际地震动态 ,9:2 6
Lan Main,1 999.单个地震的可靠预测是一个现实的科学目标吗 ?国际地震动态 ,6:1 9～ 2 1
Leon Knopoff,1 999.地震预测是困难的但并非不可能 .国际地震动态 ,6:2 9～ 31
Max Wyss,1 999.还不能 ,但最终能 .国际地震动态 ,6:2 3～ 2 4
Hao Jianguo,1 989. Near earth surface anomalies of the atmopherec electric field and earthquakes. ACTASeismologica Sinica,2 ,2 ,2 89～ 2 98
Hao Jianguo and Liu Song,1 991 . Research on Electrical Firld Anomalies Near the Earth's Surface andTheir Application to the Short- term Prediction of Local Earthquakes. Earthquake Research in China,5,4,367～ 373
Jian- Guo HAO,Yun- Fu ZHANG,Huai- Wen PAN,De- Rui LI,Tian- Ming TANG and Xiao- Qin LIU,1 995Ultra low frequency electromagnetic wave anomaly and its spectrum characteristics before earthquakes.ACTA Seismologica Sinica,8,1 ,1 0 1～ 1 0 9
JIAN- GUO HAO,TIAN- MING TANG and DE- RUI LI,1 998.A Kind of information on short- term andimminent earthquake precursors- research on atmospheric electric field anomalies before earthquakes,ACTA Seismological Sinica,1 1 ,1 ,1 2 1～ 1 31
Hao Jianguo,Tang Tianming and Li Derui,1 998.Evaluating the Statistical Validity Regarding Static Elec-tric Field Anomalies as Earthquake Precursors,Earthquake Research in China.1 2 ,4,40 5～ 41 2
C H Scholz,L R Sykes and Y P Aggarwal,1 973.Earthquake prediction:A physical basis.Sciencee,1 81 :80 3～ 81 0
D A Rhoades,F F Evison,1 996.The VAN earthquake predictions,Geophys Ses Letters.2 3(1 1 ) :1 371～ 1 373
D D Jackson,1 996.Earthquake prediction evaluation standards applied to the VAN method.Geophys ResLett,2 3(1 1 ) :1 363～ 1 366
Finkelstein D and JR Powell,1 973.The Piezoelectric theory of earthquake ligtning.JGeophys.,78(6) :992～ 993
G A Sobolev,1 975.Application of electric to the Tentative Sort- Term forecast of Kamchatka Earth-quakes,Pagoph,Vol(1 1 3) :2 2 9～ 2 35
Geller R,Jackson D,Kagan Y and Mulargia F,1 997.Earthquakes cannotbe predicted.Science,2 75:1 61 6～ 1 61
G N Stavrakakis,JDrakopoulos,1 996.The VAN method Cantradetory and misleading resultssince 1 981 .Geophys Ses Letters,2 3(1 1 ) :1 347～ 1 35
0K Oike and Okawa,1 986.Electromagnetic Radiations from Shallow Earthquakes Observed in LF Range.JGeolectr.,38:1 0 31～ 1 0 4 0
Kondo G,1 968.The Atmospheic Electric Field atthe time of earthquake.Memoirsofthe Kakioka MagneticObservatory,1 3(1 )Mason B J,1 971 .The Physics of Clouds.Oxford University Press,1 73～ 1 92
M N Berdichevsky etal,1 976.Deep electromagnetic investigations.Ann.Peophys,32 :1 4 3～ 1 55
Mulargia F,P Gasperini,1 992 .Evaluating the statistical validity beyond chance of VAN earthquake precur-sors,Geophys.JInt,1 1 1 :32～ 44
P Varotsos,K Alexopoulos,1 984.Physical properties of the variationsof the electricfield of the earth pre-ceding earthquakes,( , ) .Tectonphysics,1 1 0 (73～ 98)
P Varotsos,K Eftaxias,F Vallianatos,M Lozaridou,1 996.Basis priciples for evaluating an earthquakepredication method.Geophys Res Letters,2 3(1 1 ) :1 2 95～ 1 2 98
P Varotsos,K Eftaxias,F Vallianatos,M Lozaridou,1 996.Basis principles for evaluating an earthquakeprediction method.Geophys Res Lett,2 3(1 1 1 ) :1 2 95～ 1 2 98
R JGeller,1 996.Debate on evaluation of the VAN method:Editor's introduction.Peophys Res Letters,2 3(1 1 ) :1 2 91～ 1 2 93
Terrada T,1 993.On luminous phenomina accompanied with earthquakes.Bulletin of the Earthquake Re-search Institute Tokyo Imperial University,Vol Toshio Ogwaw,Kazuo Oike,Taiji Miura,1 985.Electromagnetic radiation From Rocks.JGeophys.Re-search,90 (D4) :62 4 5～ 62 4 9
Yukio Fujinawa and Kozo Takahashi 1 990 .Emission ofelectromagnetic radiation preceding the Ito seismicswarm of 1 989.Nature,347(62 91 ) :376～ 378
Valley S L (ED) ,1 966.Handbook of Geophysics and Space Environments,New York,Mc- Graw- HillChalmers JA,1 967.Atmospheric Electricity,Pergamon prss
Yukio Fujinawa,Teiji Kumagai and Takahashi,1 992 .A study of anomalousunderground electric field vari-ations associated with volcanic eruption,Geophys Res Letters,1 9(1 ) :9～ 1 2
版权所有：© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心