汶川地震中擂鼓镇地区的滑坡崩塌规律及预测
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摘要
地震滑坡影响因素与滑坡崩塌分布关系的研究,有助于认识地震滑坡崩塌的发育规律,进而对潜在的地震滑坡危险区段进行划分,为土地的合理使用提供支持。5.12汶川地震引发了大量的滑坡、崩塌、碎屑流等次生灾害,造成了严重的人员伤亡和经济财产损失。以受滑坡、崩塌灾害影响严重的北川县擂鼓镇约180km2的地区作为研究对象,选取坡度、高程、坡向等影响因素进行确定性及面积发育率分析,探讨它们与滑坡、崩塌等灾害空间分布之间的关系。研究结果表明:在高程低于1km的地段,滑坡崩塌的发生频率达13.5%,高于其它地段;坡向为东向、北东向、南东向的坡体的滑坡崩塌发生率较其它方向大;随着坡度的增大,滑坡、崩塌的分布也在增大,坡度大于30°的区域滑坡发生频率较高。采用2种方法对研究区进行地震滑坡危险性区划,获得大体一致的划分结果:①基于综合确定性系数与面积发育率方法分析的地震滑坡危险性区划结果中,约有66%的滑坡崩塌落入较高危险和高危险区域;②采用判别分析法获得的地震滑坡危险性区划结果中,约有73%的滑坡崩塌判定为不稳定区域。其中,判别分析法选用的地震动、坡度、曲率等因素在不同地区都对滑坡分布具普遍的影响作用。
It is useful to study the relationship between distribution of earthquake-induced landslides and influencing factors in order to predict potential hazard places in the future land using.The Wenchuan Earthquake in 8.0 Ms on May 12 triggered a lot of slopes to failure including landslides,rock falls and debris flows.The study area is about 180 km2 and located at Leiguzhen of Beichuan region where the slope-failure hazard is severe.The slope gradient,elevation and aspect are chosen as the influencing factors of the slope-failure distribution.Their relationships with the distribution of slope failures are analyzed using CF and Rji.The research shows that:1)Landslides occurred more frequently at the elevation lower than 1 000 m.2)With the increasing of the slope gradient,the occurrence probability of the slope failure becomes higher.The slope failures concentrate in the areas with the gradient greater than 30°.3)More slope failures occurred at the slopes facing E,NE,and SE.Both predict methods based on factors susceptibility analysis and discrimination analysis,show consistently in the zoning results of high hazard and low hazard.About 66% slope failures occurred in the places classifying as high and second to high degree hazard zone based on the factors susceptibility analysis,and about 73% slope failures occurred in the places judged as unstable by discrimination analysis.The factors used in discrimination analysis method such as slope gradient,curvature and seismic acceleration have widely influence on occurring of earthquake-triggered landslides.
It is useful to study the relationship between distribution of earthquake-induced landslides and influencing factors in order to predict potential hazard places in the future land using.The Wenchuan Earthquake in 8.0 Ms on May 12 triggered a lot of slopes to failure including landslides,rock falls and debris flows.The study area is about 180 km2 and located at Leiguzhen of Beichuan region where the slope-failure hazard is severe.The slope gradient,elevation and aspect are chosen as the influencing factors of the slope-failure distribution.Their relationships with the distribution of slope failures are analyzed using CF and Rji.The research shows that:1)Landslides occurred more frequently at the elevation lower than 1 000 m.2)With the increasing of the slope gradient,the occurrence probability of the slope failure becomes higher.The slope failures concentrate in the areas with the gradient greater than 30°.3)More slope failures occurred at the slopes facing E,NE,and SE.Both predict methods based on factors susceptibility analysis and discrimination analysis,show consistently in the zoning results of high hazard and low hazard.About 66% slope failures occurred in the places classifying as high and second to high degree hazard zone based on the factors susceptibility analysis,and about 73% slope failures occurred in the places judged as unstable by discrimination analysis.The factors used in discrimination analysis method such as slope gradient,curvature and seismic acceleration have widely influence on occurring of earthquake-triggered landslides.
引文
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[14]黄润秋,李为乐.“5.12”汶川大地震触发地质灾害的发育规律研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报.,2008,27(12):2585-2592.HUANG Run-qiu,LI Wei-le.A study on the development and distribution rules of geohazards triggered by“5.12”Wenchuan earthquake[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2008,27(12):2585-2592.
[15]王运生,罗永红,吉峰,等.汶川大地震山地灾害发育的控制因素分析[J].工程地质学报,2008,6(6):759-763.WANG Yun-sheng,LUO Yong-hong,JI Feng,et al.Analysis of the controlling factors on geo-hazards in mountainous epicenter zones of the Wenchuan earthquake[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2008,16(6):759-763.
[16]Wang H B,Sassa K,Xu W Y.Analysis of a spatial distribution of landslides triggered by the2004Chuetsu earthquakes of Niigata Prefecture,Japan[J].Nat Hazards,2007,41:43-60.
[17]Keefer D K.Statistical analysis of an earthquake-inducedlandslide distribution:the1989Loma Prieta,California event[J].Engineering Geology,2000,58:231-249.
[18]李志强,袁一凡,李晓丽,等.对汶川地震宏观震中和极震区的认识[J].地震地质,2008,30:768-777.LI Zhi-qiang,YUAN Yi-fan,LI Xiao-li,et al.Some insights into the macro-epicenter and meizoseismal region of Wenchuan earthquake[J].Seismology and Geology,2008,30:768-777.
[19]陈晓利,冉洪流,祁生文.1976年龙陵地震诱发滑坡的影响因子敏感性分析[J].北京大学学报:自然科学版,2009,45(1):104-110.CHEN Xiao-li,RAN Hong-liu,QI Sheng-wen.Triggering factors susceptibility of earthquake-induced landslides in1976Longling earthquake[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis,2009,45(1):104-110.
[20]Shortliffe E H,Buchanan G G.A model of inexact reasoning in medicine[J].Mathematical Biosciences,1975,23:351-379.
[21]Heckerman D.Probabilistic interpretation of Mycin’s certainty factors[M]//Kanal L N,Lemmer J F.Uncertainty in artificial intelligence.New York:Elsevier,1986:298-311.
[22]兰恒星,伍法权,周成虎,等.基于GIS的云南小江流域滑坡因子敏感性分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2002,21(10):1500-1506.LAN Heng-xing,WUFa-quan,ZHOU Cheng-hu,et al.Analysis of susceptibility of GIS based landslide triggered factors in Yunnan Xiaojiang watershed[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2002,21(10):1500-1506.
[23]周翠英,林春秀,刘祚秋,等.基于GIS技术的区域性滑坡发生概率分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2004,23(6):911-914.ZHOU Cui-ying,LIN Chun-xiu,LI U Zuo-qiu,et al.Spatial probability analysis of landslides based on GIS technology[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,23(6):911-914.
[24]童立强,祁生文,刘春玲.喜马拉雅山东南地区地质灾害发育规律研究[J].工程地质学报,2007,15(6):721-729.TONG Li-qiang,QI Sheng-wen,LI U Chun-ling.Preliminary study on geohazard development patterns in the southeast region of Himalaya Mountains[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2007,15(6):721-729.
[25]National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Mana-gement,Ministry of Land,Infrastructure,Transport and Tourism.Astudy on methodology for assessing the potential of slope failures during earthquakes[R].Tokyo:STC,2004.
[26]National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Mana-gement,Ministry of Land,Infrastructure,Transport and Tourism.Report on damage to the infrastructures by the2004Mid Niigata Prefecture earthquake[R].Tokyo:STC,2006.
[27]Chen Xiao-li,Kato Nobuaki,Tsunaki Ryosuke,et al.Prediction of slope failure due to earthquake[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2009,54(16):2888-2894.
[2]Newmark N M.Effects of earthquakes on dams and embankments[J].Geotechnique,1965,15(2):139-160.
[3]Gazetas G.Seismic response of earth dams:some recent developments[J].Soil Dyn Earthq Engrg,1987,6(1):3-47.
[4]Jibson R W,Harp E L,Michael J A.A method for producing digital probabilistic seismic landslide[J].Eng Geol,2000,58:271-289.
[5]何蕴龙,陆述远.岩石边坡地震作用近似计算方法[J].岩土工程学报,1998,20(2):66-68.HE Yun-long,LU Shu-yuan.A method for calculating the seismic actionin rock slope[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,1998,20(2):66-68.
[6]Keefer K D.Landslides caused by earthquakes[J].Geological Society of America Bulletin,1984,95:406-421.
[7]孙崇绍,蔡红卫.我国历史地震时滑坡崩塌的发育及分布特征[J].自然灾害学报,1997,6(1):25-30.SUN Chong-shao,CAI Hong-wei.Developing and distributing characteristics of collapses and landslides during strong historic earthquake in China[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,1997,6(1):25-30.
[8]王余庆,辛鸿博,高艳平.预测岩土边坡地震崩滑的综合指标法研究[J].岩土工程学报,2001,23(3):311-314.WANG Yu-qing,XIN Hong-bo,GAO Yan-ping.Study on comprehensive index method for predicating earthquake-induced landslide[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2001,23(3):311-314.
[9]殷坤龙,晏同珍.滑坡预测及相关模型[J].岩石力学与工程学报,1996,15(1):1-8.YIN Kun-long,YAN Tong-zhen.Landslide prediction and related models[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,1996,15(1):1-8.
[10]陈晓利,赵健,叶洪.应用径向基概率神经网络研究地震滑坡[J].地震地质,2006,28(3):430-440.CHEN Xiao-li,ZHAO Jian,YE Hong.The application of RBPNNin the research of earthquake-inducedlandslide[J].Seismology and Geology,2006,28(3):430-440.
[11]殷跃平,潘桂棠,刘宇平,等.汶川地震地质与滑坡灾害概论[M].北京:地质出版社,2009.YIN Yue-ping,PAN Gui-tang,LI U Yu-ping,et al.Great Wenchuan earthquake:seismogeology and landslide hazards[M].Beijing:Geological Publishing House,2009.
[12]殷跃平.汶川8级地震滑坡高速远程特征分析[J].工程地质学报,2009,17(2):153-166.YIN Yue-ping.Rapid and long-run features of landslides triggered by the Wenchuan earthquake[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2009,17(2):153-166.
[13]祁生文,许强,刘春玲,等.汶川地震极重灾区地质背景及次生斜坡灾害空间发育规律[J].工程地质学报,2009,17(1):39-49.QI Sheng-wen,XU Qiang,LI U Chun-ling,et al.Slope instabilities in the severest disaster areas of5.12Wenchuan earthquake[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2009,17(1):39-49.
[14]黄润秋,李为乐.“5.12”汶川大地震触发地质灾害的发育规律研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报.,2008,27(12):2585-2592.HUANG Run-qiu,LI Wei-le.A study on the development and distribution rules of geohazards triggered by“5.12”Wenchuan earthquake[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2008,27(12):2585-2592.
[15]王运生,罗永红,吉峰,等.汶川大地震山地灾害发育的控制因素分析[J].工程地质学报,2008,6(6):759-763.WANG Yun-sheng,LUO Yong-hong,JI Feng,et al.Analysis of the controlling factors on geo-hazards in mountainous epicenter zones of the Wenchuan earthquake[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2008,16(6):759-763.
[16]Wang H B,Sassa K,Xu W Y.Analysis of a spatial distribution of landslides triggered by the2004Chuetsu earthquakes of Niigata Prefecture,Japan[J].Nat Hazards,2007,41:43-60.
[17]Keefer D K.Statistical analysis of an earthquake-inducedlandslide distribution:the1989Loma Prieta,California event[J].Engineering Geology,2000,58:231-249.
[18]李志强,袁一凡,李晓丽,等.对汶川地震宏观震中和极震区的认识[J].地震地质,2008,30:768-777.LI Zhi-qiang,YUAN Yi-fan,LI Xiao-li,et al.Some insights into the macro-epicenter and meizoseismal region of Wenchuan earthquake[J].Seismology and Geology,2008,30:768-777.
[19]陈晓利,冉洪流,祁生文.1976年龙陵地震诱发滑坡的影响因子敏感性分析[J].北京大学学报:自然科学版,2009,45(1):104-110.CHEN Xiao-li,RAN Hong-liu,QI Sheng-wen.Triggering factors susceptibility of earthquake-induced landslides in1976Longling earthquake[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis,2009,45(1):104-110.
[20]Shortliffe E H,Buchanan G G.A model of inexact reasoning in medicine[J].Mathematical Biosciences,1975,23:351-379.
[21]Heckerman D.Probabilistic interpretation of Mycin’s certainty factors[M]//Kanal L N,Lemmer J F.Uncertainty in artificial intelligence.New York:Elsevier,1986:298-311.
[22]兰恒星,伍法权,周成虎,等.基于GIS的云南小江流域滑坡因子敏感性分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2002,21(10):1500-1506.LAN Heng-xing,WUFa-quan,ZHOU Cheng-hu,et al.Analysis of susceptibility of GIS based landslide triggered factors in Yunnan Xiaojiang watershed[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2002,21(10):1500-1506.
[23]周翠英,林春秀,刘祚秋,等.基于GIS技术的区域性滑坡发生概率分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2004,23(6):911-914.ZHOU Cui-ying,LIN Chun-xiu,LI U Zuo-qiu,et al.Spatial probability analysis of landslides based on GIS technology[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,23(6):911-914.
[24]童立强,祁生文,刘春玲.喜马拉雅山东南地区地质灾害发育规律研究[J].工程地质学报,2007,15(6):721-729.TONG Li-qiang,QI Sheng-wen,LI U Chun-ling.Preliminary study on geohazard development patterns in the southeast region of Himalaya Mountains[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2007,15(6):721-729.
[25]National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Mana-gement,Ministry of Land,Infrastructure,Transport and Tourism.Astudy on methodology for assessing the potential of slope failures during earthquakes[R].Tokyo:STC,2004.
[26]National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Mana-gement,Ministry of Land,Infrastructure,Transport and Tourism.Report on damage to the infrastructures by the2004Mid Niigata Prefecture earthquake[R].Tokyo:STC,2006.
[27]Chen Xiao-li,Kato Nobuaki,Tsunaki Ryosuke,et al.Prediction of slope failure due to earthquake[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2009,54(16):2888-2894.
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