权重加卸载响应比及其震例检验
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摘要
对加卸载响应比理论在地震预测中的应用进行分析,提出了对"正地震"和"负地震"震级根据加载库仑应力的半日潮振幅进行加权的研究思路,并应用于1999年台湾集集地震、2002年阿拉斯加Denali地震和2003年日本Hokkaido地震的震前加卸载响应比的计算。结果表明,相比较传统加卸载响应比,权重加卸载响应比更能突出震前的异常信息。
After analysis to the Load/Unload Response Ratio(LURR) theory and its application in earthquake prediction,I proposed the idea to weight the magnitude of the "positive earthquake" and "negative earthquake" according to the amplitude of Coulomb stress generated by half-day solid tides.I applied it to 1999 Chichi earthquake in Taiwan,2002 Denali earthquake in Alaski and 2003 Hokkaido earthquake in Japan.The results show that the weighted LURR can make the anomaly prominent compared to the traditional LURR.
After analysis to the Load/Unload Response Ratio(LURR) theory and its application in earthquake prediction,I proposed the idea to weight the magnitude of the "positive earthquake" and "negative earthquake" according to the amplitude of Coulomb stress generated by half-day solid tides.I applied it to 1999 Chichi earthquake in Taiwan,2002 Denali earthquake in Alaski and 2003 Hokkaido earthquake in Japan.The results show that the weighted LURR can make the anomaly prominent compared to the traditional LURR.
引文
[1]Yin X,Chen X,Song Z,et al.Anewapproach to earthquake prediction:The load/unload response ratio(LURR)theory[J].Pure Appl Geophys,1995,145(3/4):703-715.
[2]Yin X,Wang Y,Peng K,et al.Development of a newapproach to earthquake prediction:Load/unload response ratio(LURR)theory[J].Pure Appl Geophys,2000,157:2 365-2 383.
[3]尹祥础,尹灿.非线性系统失稳的前兆与地震预报———响应比理论及其应用[J].中国科学(B辑),1991,5:512-518.
[4]尹祥础.地震预报新途径探索[J].中国地震,1987,3(1):1-7.
[5]Reasenberg P A,Simpson R W.Response of regional seismicity to the static stress change produced by the Loma Prieta earth-quake[J].Science,1992,255:1 687-1 690.
[6]Harris R A.Introduction to special section:Stress triggers,stress shadows,and implications for seismic hazard[J].J GeophysRes,1998,103:24 347-24 358.
[7]尹祥础,陈学忠,宋治平,等.关东等地区加卸载响应比的时间变化及其预测意义[J].中国地震,1996,12(3):331-334.
[8]陈学忠,尹祥础.加卸载响应比理论在中强地震(7>M≥6)预测中的应用[J].中国地震,1995,11(1):33-37.
[9]王海涛,彭克银,张永仙,等.新疆伽师强震群过程中加卸载响应比变化特征[J].科学通报,1998,43(10):1 109-1 112.
[10]万永革.关于加卸载响应比理论应用于地震预测的几点思考[J].西北地震学报,2004,26(2):178-182.
[11]Ma K-F,Mori J,Lee S-J,et al.Spatial and temporal distribution of slip for the 1999 Chi-Chi,Tainwan earthquake[J].BullSeism Soc Amer,2001,91:1-19.
[12]Wu C,Takeo M,Ide S.Source Process of the Chi-Chi Earthquake:AJoint Inversion of Strong Motion Data and Global Positio-ning System Data with a Multifault Model[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,2001,91(5):1 128-1 143.
[13]Yu H,Shen Z,Wan Y,et al.Increasing critical sensitivity of the Load/Unload Response Ratio before large earthquakes withidentified stress accumulation pattern[J].Tectnophysics,2006,428:87-94.
[2]Yin X,Wang Y,Peng K,et al.Development of a newapproach to earthquake prediction:Load/unload response ratio(LURR)theory[J].Pure Appl Geophys,2000,157:2 365-2 383.
[3]尹祥础,尹灿.非线性系统失稳的前兆与地震预报———响应比理论及其应用[J].中国科学(B辑),1991,5:512-518.
[4]尹祥础.地震预报新途径探索[J].中国地震,1987,3(1):1-7.
[5]Reasenberg P A,Simpson R W.Response of regional seismicity to the static stress change produced by the Loma Prieta earth-quake[J].Science,1992,255:1 687-1 690.
[6]Harris R A.Introduction to special section:Stress triggers,stress shadows,and implications for seismic hazard[J].J GeophysRes,1998,103:24 347-24 358.
[7]尹祥础,陈学忠,宋治平,等.关东等地区加卸载响应比的时间变化及其预测意义[J].中国地震,1996,12(3):331-334.
[8]陈学忠,尹祥础.加卸载响应比理论在中强地震(7>M≥6)预测中的应用[J].中国地震,1995,11(1):33-37.
[9]王海涛,彭克银,张永仙,等.新疆伽师强震群过程中加卸载响应比变化特征[J].科学通报,1998,43(10):1 109-1 112.
[10]万永革.关于加卸载响应比理论应用于地震预测的几点思考[J].西北地震学报,2004,26(2):178-182.
[11]Ma K-F,Mori J,Lee S-J,et al.Spatial and temporal distribution of slip for the 1999 Chi-Chi,Tainwan earthquake[J].BullSeism Soc Amer,2001,91:1-19.
[12]Wu C,Takeo M,Ide S.Source Process of the Chi-Chi Earthquake:AJoint Inversion of Strong Motion Data and Global Positio-ning System Data with a Multifault Model[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,2001,91(5):1 128-1 143.
[13]Yu H,Shen Z,Wan Y,et al.Increasing critical sensitivity of the Load/Unload Response Ratio before large earthquakes withidentified stress accumulation pattern[J].Tectnophysics,2006,428:87-94.
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