加卸载响应比20年及其展望
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摘要
地震孕育过程是一个非线性、不可逆的过程,震源区介质的加载响应不同于卸载响应,这种加载响应与卸载响应的差别可以定量地刻画地震的孕育过程。基于这个物理概念,提出了一个新的参数加卸载响应比,作为一类地震前兆,用来定量预测强震的发生。在本文中,首先简单回顾了加卸载响应比的发展历史,然后详细介绍了地震震例检验、数值计算、实验研究、地震预测精度、可信度等方面的内容,最后对加卸载响应比的前景进行了展望。
引文
[1]Meakin P.Model for material failure and deformation.Science,1991,252:226-234
[2]Bai Y L,Lu C S,Ke F J,et al.Evolution Induced Catastrophe.Phys.Lett,1994.A185:196-201
[3]Krajcinnovic D.Damage Mechanics.Elsevier,Amsterdam,1996
[4]Xia M F,Wei Y J,Ke F J and Bai Y L.Critical sensitivity and trans-scale fluctua-tions in catastrophe rup-ture.Pure Appl.Geophys.,2002,159(10):2491-2509
[5]Lamaitre J.Formulation and identification of damage kinetic constitutive equations,in“Continuum damage me-chanics”.(edited by Krajcinnovic D.),Springer-Verlag,Wien,New York,1987
[6]Oda M.A Method for Evaluating the Effect of Crack Geometry on the Mechanical Behavior of Cracked Rock Mass.Mech.Mater,1983,2:163-171
[7]Kanamor I H and Anderson D L.Theoretical Basis of Some Empirical Relation in Seismology.Bull.Seism.Soc.Am,1975,65:1073-1096
[8]Melchier P.The Tide of the Planet Earth.Pergamon Press,New York,1978
[9]Yin X C.A New Approach to Earthquake Prediction.Earthquake Research in China,1987,3:1-7(in Chi-nese with English abstract)
[10]Yin X C and Yin C.The Precursor of Instability for Nonlinear System and Its Application to Earthquake Predic-tion.Science in China,1991,34:977-986
[11]Yin X C.A New Approach to Earthquake Prediction.Природа(Russia′s″Nature″),1993,1:21-27(in Russian)
[12]Yin X C,Yin C and Chen X Z.The Precursor of Instability for Nonlinear System and Its Application to Earth-quake Prediction-the Load-Unload Response Ratio Theory.In:Non-linear Dynamics and Predictability of Geo-physical Phenomena(eds.Newman,W.I.,Gabre-lov,A,and Turcotte,D.L.),Geophysical Monograph,1994,83,IUGG Volume18:55-60
[13]Yin X C,Chen X Z,Song Z P and Yin C.The Load-Unload Response Ratio Theory and its Application to Earthquake Prediction.Journal of Earthquake Prediction Research,1994,3:325-333
[14]Maruyama T.Earthquake Prediction in China.Zisin,1993,19(5):68-76(in Japanese)
[15]Yin X C,Chen X Z,Song Z P,Yin C.A New Approach to Earthquake Prediction:The Load/Unload Re-sponse Ratio(LURR)Theory.Pure Appl.Geophys,1995,145:701-715
[16]Yin X C,Wang Y C,Peng K Y et al.Development of a NewApproach to Earthquake Prediction-Load/unload Response Ratio(LURR)Theory.Pure Appl.Geophys.,2000,157:2365-2383
[17]Harris R A.Introduction to Special Section:Stress Triggers,Stress Shadows,and Implication for Seismic Haz-ard.J.Geophys.Res.,1998,103:24347-24358
[18]Reasenber G R A and Simpson R W.Response of Regional Seismicity to the Static Stress Change Produced by the Loma Preita Earthquake.Science,1992,255:1687-1690
[19]Harris R A.Earthquake stress triggers,stress shadows,and seismic hazard.Current Science,2000,79:1215-1225
[20]Vidali J E,AgnewD C,Johnston MJ S,et al.Absence of Earthquake Correlation with Earth Tides:An Indi-cation of high Preseismic Fault Stress Rate.J.Geophys.Res,1998,103:24567-24572
[21]Yin X C,Mora P,Peng K Y,et al.Load-unload Re-sponse Ratio and Accelerating Moment/Energy Release,Critical Region Scaling and Earthquake Prediction,Pure Appl.Geophys.,2002,159:2511-2524
[22]Yin X C,Peng K Y,Yu H Z,et al.Scaling of LURR Critical Region.3rd ACES Workshop,May5-10,2002,Island of Maui,Hawaii,U.S.A.
[23]Zhang HH,Yin Xiangchu and Liang Naigang.The spatial variation of LURR and seismic tendency in western United States.Earthquake Research in China,2005,19(3):338-345
[24]KNOPOFF L.Earth Tide as a Triggering Mechanism for Earthquakes.Bull,Seismo.Soc.Am.,1964,54:1865-1870
[25]Emter D.Tidal Triggering of Earthquakes and Volcanic Events,in(WILHELM,H.,et al.ed,)Tidal Phe-nomena,Springer-Verlag,1997:293-309
[26]Sornette A and Sornette D.Earthquake rupture as a critical point:Conse-quences for telluric precursors.Tec-tonophysics,1990,179:327-334
[27]Sornette D and Sammis C G.Complex critical exponents from renormalization group theory of earthquake pre-diction.J.Phys.I.France,1995,5:607-619
[28]Huang Y,Saleur H,Sammis C G,et al.Precursor,Aftershocks,Criticality and Self-organization Criticality.Europhys.Lett.1998,41:43-48
[29]Jaume S C and Sykes L R.Evolving towards a critical point:a reviewof accelerat-ing seismic moment/energy release prior to large and great earthquakes.Pure Appl.Geophys.,1999,155:279-306
[30]Mora P,Place D,Abe S,et al.Lattice solid simulation of the physics of faultzones and earthquakes:the mod-el,results and directions,in:Geocomplexity and the Phys-ics of Earthquakes(Eds.Rundle,J.B.,Tur-cotte,D.L.&Klein,W.,AGU,Washington),2000:105-125
[31]Rundle J B,et al.Precursor Seimic activation and Critical-point Phynomena,Pure appl.Geophys,2000,157:2165-2182
[32]Mora P,Y WANG,C YIN,et al.Simulation of Load-unload Re-sponse Ratio and Critical Sensitivity in the Lattice Solid Model.Pure Appl.Geophys.,2002,159:2525-2536
[33]Wang Y C,Yin X C and Wang HT.The Simulation of Rock Experiment on Load/Unload Response for Earth-quake Prediction.Earthquake Research in China,1998,14(2):126-130
[34]Wang Y C,Yin X C and Wang HT.Numerical Simulation on Load/Unload Re-sponse Ratio(LURR)Theory.ACTA Gephysica Sinica,1999,42:669-676
[35]Wang Y C,Yin X C,Ke F J,et al.Simulation of Rock Failure and Earthquake Process on Mesoscopic Scale.Pure Appl.Geophys.,2000,157:1905-1928
[36]Wang Y C,Mora P,Yin C,et al.Statistical Testes of Load-Unload Re-sponse Ratio Signals by lattice Solid Model:Implication to Tidal Triggering and Earthquake Pre-diction.Pure Appl.Geophys,2004,161:1829-1839
[37]Wang Y C.Simulation of earthquake process and studies on predictability.Post-Doctor Report,Institute of Me-chanics,CAS,200000(in Chinese)
[38]Rong F.Multiscale Simulation of damage Evolution in Heterogeneous Brittle Media.PhD thesis of the Graduate School,China Academy Science,2006
[39]Liang N,Liu Q,Li J,et al.A Chains Net-work Model Simulating Meso-Mechanics Behavior and Micro Dam-age Evolution of In Situ Reinforced Ceramics.In:Advanced in Engineering Plasticity&Its Applications,(eds Abe,Tand Tsuta,T))(Pergamon,Amsterdan)1996:141-146
[40]Shi X,Xu H,Wan Y,et al.The Rock Fracture under Simulated Tide Force-Laboratory Study on the Loading and Unloading Response Ratio(LURR)Theory.ACTA GEOPHYSICA SINICA,1994,37:631-636
[41]Yin X C,Zhang HH,Yu HZ,et al.Prediction of seismic tendency of Chinese mainland in2004in terms of LURR.In book“The research on seismic ten-dency of China in2005”,282-285,(edited by Center for Anal-ysis and Prediction,CSB),Seis-mological Press,Beijing,2004(in Chinese)
[42]YYu HZ.Experimental research on precursors of brittle heterogeneous media and earth-quake prediction meth-ods.PhD Thesis,Institute of Mechanics,CAS,2004(in Chinese)
[43]Zhang HH.Prediction of Catastrophic failure in Heterogeneous Brittle Media-Study and practice of Load/Un-load Response Ratio(LURR).PhD thesis,Graduate School,CAS,2006
[44]КУКСЕНКОВС.КСЯН-ЧУИН(Xiang-chu YIN).Влияниеслабыхмеханическихвоздействийнаповедениеочагаразрушения,ИзвестияАкадемииНаук,СерияФизическая,том67,No.6с.2003,877-881(in Russian)
[45]Jaeger J C and Cook N G W.Fundamentals of Rock Mechanics.Chapman and Hall,London,1976
[46]Ohnaka M and Kuwahara Y.Characteristic features of local breakdown near a crack-tip in the transition zone from nucleation to unstable rupture during stick-slip shear failure.Tectonophysics,1990,175:197-220
[47]Dieterich J H.Earthquake nucleation on faults with rate-and state-dependent strength.Tectonophysics,1992,211:115-134
[48]Zhang X H,Xu X H,Xia M F,et al.Critical sensitivity in driven nonlin-ear threshold systems.Pure Appl.Geophys.,2004,161:1931-1944
[49]Yin X C,Song Z P and Wang Y C.The Temporal Variation of LURR in Kanto and Other Regions in Japan and Its Application to Earthquake Prediction.Earthquake Research in China,1996,10:381-385
[50]Yin X C,Zhang HH,Yu HZ,et al.Prediction of seismic tendency of Chinese mainland in2004in terms of LURR,in book“The research on seismic ten-dency of China in2004”.(edited by Center for Analysis and Prediction,CSB),2003,282-285,Seis-mological Press,Beijing,2003(in Chinese)
[51]Zhuang J C and Yin X C.Random Distribution of the Load/Unload Response Ratio(LURR)Under Assump-tions of Poisson Model.Earthquake Research in China,1999,15:128-138
[52]Yicn C.Exploring the Underlying Mechanism of Load/Unload Response Ratio Theory and Its Application to Earthquake Prediction.PhD Thesis,The University of Queensland,Australia,2005
[53]Chen X Z and Yin X C.Application of LURR Theory to the Earthquake Prediction for Reservoir-Induced Earth-quakes.Earthquake Research in China,1995,11:361-367
[54]Yin X C,Yu HZ,Kukshenko V,et al.Load-Unload Response ratio(LURR),Accelerating Energy release(AER)and State Vector evolution as precursors to failure of rock specimens.Pure Appl.Geophys,2004,161:No.11～12,2405-2416
[55]Xu Qand Huang R Q.Investigation on precursor of slope instability in term of LURR.Chinese Journal of Geo-logical Disasters,1995,6(2)(in Chinese)
[56]Jiang T.The Analysis of landslide in terms of Load/Unload Response Ratio.PhD Thesis,Institute of Geology,Chinese Seismological Bureau(in Chinese),2004
[2]Bai Y L,Lu C S,Ke F J,et al.Evolution Induced Catastrophe.Phys.Lett,1994.A185:196-201
[3]Krajcinnovic D.Damage Mechanics.Elsevier,Amsterdam,1996
[4]Xia M F,Wei Y J,Ke F J and Bai Y L.Critical sensitivity and trans-scale fluctua-tions in catastrophe rup-ture.Pure Appl.Geophys.,2002,159(10):2491-2509
[5]Lamaitre J.Formulation and identification of damage kinetic constitutive equations,in“Continuum damage me-chanics”.(edited by Krajcinnovic D.),Springer-Verlag,Wien,New York,1987
[6]Oda M.A Method for Evaluating the Effect of Crack Geometry on the Mechanical Behavior of Cracked Rock Mass.Mech.Mater,1983,2:163-171
[7]Kanamor I H and Anderson D L.Theoretical Basis of Some Empirical Relation in Seismology.Bull.Seism.Soc.Am,1975,65:1073-1096
[8]Melchier P.The Tide of the Planet Earth.Pergamon Press,New York,1978
[9]Yin X C.A New Approach to Earthquake Prediction.Earthquake Research in China,1987,3:1-7(in Chi-nese with English abstract)
[10]Yin X C and Yin C.The Precursor of Instability for Nonlinear System and Its Application to Earthquake Predic-tion.Science in China,1991,34:977-986
[11]Yin X C.A New Approach to Earthquake Prediction.Природа(Russia′s″Nature″),1993,1:21-27(in Russian)
[12]Yin X C,Yin C and Chen X Z.The Precursor of Instability for Nonlinear System and Its Application to Earth-quake Prediction-the Load-Unload Response Ratio Theory.In:Non-linear Dynamics and Predictability of Geo-physical Phenomena(eds.Newman,W.I.,Gabre-lov,A,and Turcotte,D.L.),Geophysical Monograph,1994,83,IUGG Volume18:55-60
[13]Yin X C,Chen X Z,Song Z P and Yin C.The Load-Unload Response Ratio Theory and its Application to Earthquake Prediction.Journal of Earthquake Prediction Research,1994,3:325-333
[14]Maruyama T.Earthquake Prediction in China.Zisin,1993,19(5):68-76(in Japanese)
[15]Yin X C,Chen X Z,Song Z P,Yin C.A New Approach to Earthquake Prediction:The Load/Unload Re-sponse Ratio(LURR)Theory.Pure Appl.Geophys,1995,145:701-715
[16]Yin X C,Wang Y C,Peng K Y et al.Development of a NewApproach to Earthquake Prediction-Load/unload Response Ratio(LURR)Theory.Pure Appl.Geophys.,2000,157:2365-2383
[17]Harris R A.Introduction to Special Section:Stress Triggers,Stress Shadows,and Implication for Seismic Haz-ard.J.Geophys.Res.,1998,103:24347-24358
[18]Reasenber G R A and Simpson R W.Response of Regional Seismicity to the Static Stress Change Produced by the Loma Preita Earthquake.Science,1992,255:1687-1690
[19]Harris R A.Earthquake stress triggers,stress shadows,and seismic hazard.Current Science,2000,79:1215-1225
[20]Vidali J E,AgnewD C,Johnston MJ S,et al.Absence of Earthquake Correlation with Earth Tides:An Indi-cation of high Preseismic Fault Stress Rate.J.Geophys.Res,1998,103:24567-24572
[21]Yin X C,Mora P,Peng K Y,et al.Load-unload Re-sponse Ratio and Accelerating Moment/Energy Release,Critical Region Scaling and Earthquake Prediction,Pure Appl.Geophys.,2002,159:2511-2524
[22]Yin X C,Peng K Y,Yu H Z,et al.Scaling of LURR Critical Region.3rd ACES Workshop,May5-10,2002,Island of Maui,Hawaii,U.S.A.
[23]Zhang HH,Yin Xiangchu and Liang Naigang.The spatial variation of LURR and seismic tendency in western United States.Earthquake Research in China,2005,19(3):338-345
[24]KNOPOFF L.Earth Tide as a Triggering Mechanism for Earthquakes.Bull,Seismo.Soc.Am.,1964,54:1865-1870
[25]Emter D.Tidal Triggering of Earthquakes and Volcanic Events,in(WILHELM,H.,et al.ed,)Tidal Phe-nomena,Springer-Verlag,1997:293-309
[26]Sornette A and Sornette D.Earthquake rupture as a critical point:Conse-quences for telluric precursors.Tec-tonophysics,1990,179:327-334
[27]Sornette D and Sammis C G.Complex critical exponents from renormalization group theory of earthquake pre-diction.J.Phys.I.France,1995,5:607-619
[28]Huang Y,Saleur H,Sammis C G,et al.Precursor,Aftershocks,Criticality and Self-organization Criticality.Europhys.Lett.1998,41:43-48
[29]Jaume S C and Sykes L R.Evolving towards a critical point:a reviewof accelerat-ing seismic moment/energy release prior to large and great earthquakes.Pure Appl.Geophys.,1999,155:279-306
[30]Mora P,Place D,Abe S,et al.Lattice solid simulation of the physics of faultzones and earthquakes:the mod-el,results and directions,in:Geocomplexity and the Phys-ics of Earthquakes(Eds.Rundle,J.B.,Tur-cotte,D.L.&Klein,W.,AGU,Washington),2000:105-125
[31]Rundle J B,et al.Precursor Seimic activation and Critical-point Phynomena,Pure appl.Geophys,2000,157:2165-2182
[32]Mora P,Y WANG,C YIN,et al.Simulation of Load-unload Re-sponse Ratio and Critical Sensitivity in the Lattice Solid Model.Pure Appl.Geophys.,2002,159:2525-2536
[33]Wang Y C,Yin X C and Wang HT.The Simulation of Rock Experiment on Load/Unload Response for Earth-quake Prediction.Earthquake Research in China,1998,14(2):126-130
[34]Wang Y C,Yin X C and Wang HT.Numerical Simulation on Load/Unload Re-sponse Ratio(LURR)Theory.ACTA Gephysica Sinica,1999,42:669-676
[35]Wang Y C,Yin X C,Ke F J,et al.Simulation of Rock Failure and Earthquake Process on Mesoscopic Scale.Pure Appl.Geophys.,2000,157:1905-1928
[36]Wang Y C,Mora P,Yin C,et al.Statistical Testes of Load-Unload Re-sponse Ratio Signals by lattice Solid Model:Implication to Tidal Triggering and Earthquake Pre-diction.Pure Appl.Geophys,2004,161:1829-1839
[37]Wang Y C.Simulation of earthquake process and studies on predictability.Post-Doctor Report,Institute of Me-chanics,CAS,200000(in Chinese)
[38]Rong F.Multiscale Simulation of damage Evolution in Heterogeneous Brittle Media.PhD thesis of the Graduate School,China Academy Science,2006
[39]Liang N,Liu Q,Li J,et al.A Chains Net-work Model Simulating Meso-Mechanics Behavior and Micro Dam-age Evolution of In Situ Reinforced Ceramics.In:Advanced in Engineering Plasticity&Its Applications,(eds Abe,Tand Tsuta,T))(Pergamon,Amsterdan)1996:141-146
[40]Shi X,Xu H,Wan Y,et al.The Rock Fracture under Simulated Tide Force-Laboratory Study on the Loading and Unloading Response Ratio(LURR)Theory.ACTA GEOPHYSICA SINICA,1994,37:631-636
[41]Yin X C,Zhang HH,Yu HZ,et al.Prediction of seismic tendency of Chinese mainland in2004in terms of LURR.In book“The research on seismic ten-dency of China in2005”,282-285,(edited by Center for Anal-ysis and Prediction,CSB),Seis-mological Press,Beijing,2004(in Chinese)
[42]YYu HZ.Experimental research on precursors of brittle heterogeneous media and earth-quake prediction meth-ods.PhD Thesis,Institute of Mechanics,CAS,2004(in Chinese)
[43]Zhang HH.Prediction of Catastrophic failure in Heterogeneous Brittle Media-Study and practice of Load/Un-load Response Ratio(LURR).PhD thesis,Graduate School,CAS,2006
[44]КУКСЕНКОВС.КСЯН-ЧУИН(Xiang-chu YIN).Влияниеслабыхмеханическихвоздействийнаповедениеочагаразрушения,ИзвестияАкадемииНаук,СерияФизическая,том67,No.6с.2003,877-881(in Russian)
[45]Jaeger J C and Cook N G W.Fundamentals of Rock Mechanics.Chapman and Hall,London,1976
[46]Ohnaka M and Kuwahara Y.Characteristic features of local breakdown near a crack-tip in the transition zone from nucleation to unstable rupture during stick-slip shear failure.Tectonophysics,1990,175:197-220
[47]Dieterich J H.Earthquake nucleation on faults with rate-and state-dependent strength.Tectonophysics,1992,211:115-134
[48]Zhang X H,Xu X H,Xia M F,et al.Critical sensitivity in driven nonlin-ear threshold systems.Pure Appl.Geophys.,2004,161:1931-1944
[49]Yin X C,Song Z P and Wang Y C.The Temporal Variation of LURR in Kanto and Other Regions in Japan and Its Application to Earthquake Prediction.Earthquake Research in China,1996,10:381-385
[50]Yin X C,Zhang HH,Yu HZ,et al.Prediction of seismic tendency of Chinese mainland in2004in terms of LURR,in book“The research on seismic ten-dency of China in2004”.(edited by Center for Analysis and Prediction,CSB),2003,282-285,Seis-mological Press,Beijing,2003(in Chinese)
[51]Zhuang J C and Yin X C.Random Distribution of the Load/Unload Response Ratio(LURR)Under Assump-tions of Poisson Model.Earthquake Research in China,1999,15:128-138
[52]Yicn C.Exploring the Underlying Mechanism of Load/Unload Response Ratio Theory and Its Application to Earthquake Prediction.PhD Thesis,The University of Queensland,Australia,2005
[53]Chen X Z and Yin X C.Application of LURR Theory to the Earthquake Prediction for Reservoir-Induced Earth-quakes.Earthquake Research in China,1995,11:361-367
[54]Yin X C,Yu HZ,Kukshenko V,et al.Load-Unload Response ratio(LURR),Accelerating Energy release(AER)and State Vector evolution as precursors to failure of rock specimens.Pure Appl.Geophys,2004,161:No.11～12,2405-2416
[55]Xu Qand Huang R Q.Investigation on precursor of slope instability in term of LURR.Chinese Journal of Geo-logical Disasters,1995,6(2)(in Chinese)
[56]Jiang T.The Analysis of landslide in terms of Load/Unload Response Ratio.PhD Thesis,Institute of Geology,Chinese Seismological Bureau(in Chinese),2004
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