云南地区4级地震频度异常特征与强震关系研究
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摘要
对云南地区18次MS≥6强震事件前中、小地震活动过程进行了分析,发现在这些地震发生前1—3年近场区2°×2°范围内4级地震频度基本上出现了显著增强现象,可以用4级地震年累计频度进行定量描述。通过全时空的扫描,确定年累计频度N≥4为异常阈值,该指标通过了置信度97.5%的R值内符检验。并用调整单元对强震附近4级地震活动增强现象给予了物理解释。
By analyzing the course of small-medium earthquake activities for 18 earthquakes with M\-S≥6.0 in Yunnan region, We found that the frequency of M4.0 earthquakes in the range 2°×2? unit show obvious intensifying phenomena in the 1-3 years' near location before the earthquakes occured, so the M4.0 earthquakes frequency of yearly accumulation can use to describe the strong earthquakes. The whole time-space scanning result show 4 is the yearly accumulation frequency cutoff value, Using the R value to test it, found the success ratio is 97.5%. We used the adjusting unit to explain the phenomena that M4.0 earthquake frequency intensify on physics
By analyzing the course of small-medium earthquake activities for 18 earthquakes with M\-S≥6.0 in Yunnan region, We found that the frequency of M4.0 earthquakes in the range 2°×2? unit show obvious intensifying phenomena in the 1-3 years' near location before the earthquakes occured, so the M4.0 earthquakes frequency of yearly accumulation can use to describe the strong earthquakes. The whole time-space scanning result show 4 is the yearly accumulation frequency cutoff value, Using the R value to test it, found the success ratio is 97.5%. We used the adjusting unit to explain the phenomena that M4.0 earthquake frequency intensify on physics
引文
[1]梅世蓉,薛燕,宋志平.华北地区强震前地震活动长期演变过程的共性[A].国家地震局监测预报司.地震短临预报的理论与方法[C].北京:地震出版社,1997.3—12.
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[3]付虹.云南地区中短期前兆异常识别、指标体系、预报方法研究[J].地震通讯,1999,(增刊):15—20.
[4]国家地震局科技监测司.地震学分析预报方法程式指南[M].北京:地震出版社,1990.
[5]郭增建,秦保燕.震源物理[M].北京:地震出版社,1979.
[2]付虹,王炜.地震活动因子A值在川滇M≥6地震中短期预报中的应用[J].内陆地震,2001,15(3):205—212.
[3]付虹.云南地区中短期前兆异常识别、指标体系、预报方法研究[J].地震通讯,1999,(增刊):15—20.
[4]国家地震局科技监测司.地震学分析预报方法程式指南[M].北京:地震出版社,1990.
[5]郭增建,秦保燕.震源物理[M].北京:地震出版社,1979.
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