基于自组织临界现象的中期地震预报算法研究
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摘要
在自组织临界现象、几何相变等物理理论的基础上，开发研究了基于自组织临界现象的中期地震预报算法。提出并定义了自组织临界行为的结构强度，简称ＣＳＩ值。ＣＳＩ值是反映地震活动的一个综合指标，其变化较好地反映了地震活动演化进程。对多个震例的研究表明，大地震发生前结构强度ＣＳＩ值存在一个增大的过程，这和理论结果基本一致。利用演化图和时程曲线可以估计地震发生的时空范围
In this paper,an algorithm for intermediate term earthquake prediction is made according to percolation theory and the phenomenon of self organized criticality.The self organized critical structure intensity (CSI) is defined.The form is as follow: CSI=Nem·Rg·FsWhere order parameter Nem indicates the seismic activity level,correlation length Rg the space distribution of earthquakes,structure parameter Fs the seismic fractal character.So the value of CSI is a comprehensive parameter and is used to draw evolution pattern of the earthquake activity and to plot unit time curves.They better reveal the preceding character of seismicity.It is proved by many earthquakes occurred in China that the value of CSI has an increasing process before strong earthquake.This is approximately identical with the theoretical result.The region and time interval of future earthquake can be estimated.
In this paper,an algorithm for intermediate term earthquake prediction is made according to percolation theory and the phenomenon of self organized criticality.The self organized critical structure intensity (CSI) is defined.The form is as follow: CSI=Nem·Rg·FsWhere order parameter Nem indicates the seismic activity level,correlation length Rg the space distribution of earthquakes,structure parameter Fs the seismic fractal character.So the value of CSI is a comprehensive parameter and is used to draw evolution pattern of the earthquake activity and to plot unit time curves.They better reveal the preceding character of seismicity.It is proved by many earthquakes occurred in China that the value of CSI has an increasing process before strong earthquake.This is approximately identical with the theoretical result.The region and time interval of future earthquake can be estimated.
引文
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