基于数字流域模型的唐家山堰塞湖入流过程应急预报
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摘要
唐家山堰塞湖是5.12汶川大地震形成的高危型堰塞湖,对下游城市构成了重大威胁.唐家山堰塞湖应急除险决策需要解决在库区水位持续迅速上升、震后安全条件复杂多变的条件下,对湖区入流和水位变化过程及时准确预报的问题.采用数字流域模型对唐家山堰塞湖进行来流预报.通过分析降雨条件和决策需求,结合实时天气预报的结果,采用降雨情景分析和实时预报相结合的方法,实现了入库流量和水位变化的短期预测.预测的日水位误差为0.06 m,占日水位变幅的4.7%,为应急除险决策提供了参考数据.数字流域模型在唐家山堰塞湖的应用,提供了一个应急情形下实现合理来流预报的案例.
Tangjiashan dammed lake is a dangerous dammed lake induced by "5·12" Wenchuan Earthquake in Sichuan Province and leads to great threat to the downstream cities.With regard to the disaster mitigation decision-making for Tangjiashan dammed lake,an instant and accurate prediction of lake inflows and water levels was urgently required under the increasing reservoir water level and complex post-earthquake safety conditions.The digital watershed model(DWM) was employed to forecast the inflows into Tangjiashan dammed lake.Based on the analysis of precipitation conditions and decision-making requirements and combined with the results of the real-time weather forecast,a short-term prediction of inflows and water levels was realized by use of the combination method of precipitation analysis and real-time forecast.The maximum error of the hourly prediction of the water level is 0.06 m,accounting for 4.7% of variation of the daily water level,and it provides reference data for the disaster mitigation decisionmaking.The application of DWM in Tangjiashan dammed lake is a case of realizing the rational inflow prediction under emergent situations.
Tangjiashan dammed lake is a dangerous dammed lake induced by "5·12" Wenchuan Earthquake in Sichuan Province and leads to great threat to the downstream cities.With regard to the disaster mitigation decision-making for Tangjiashan dammed lake,an instant and accurate prediction of lake inflows and water levels was urgently required under the increasing reservoir water level and complex post-earthquake safety conditions.The digital watershed model(DWM) was employed to forecast the inflows into Tangjiashan dammed lake.Based on the analysis of precipitation conditions and decision-making requirements and combined with the results of the real-time weather forecast,a short-term prediction of inflows and water levels was realized by use of the combination method of precipitation analysis and real-time forecast.The maximum error of the hourly prediction of the water level is 0.06 m,accounting for 4.7% of variation of the daily water level,and it provides reference data for the disaster mitigation decisionmaking.The application of DWM in Tangjiashan dammed lake is a case of realizing the rational inflow prediction under emergent situations.
引文
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[2]聂高众,高建国,邓砚.地震诱发的堰塞湖初步研究[J].第四纪研究,2004,24(3):293-301.(NIE Gao-zhong,GAO Jian-guo,DENG Yan.Preliminary study on earthquake-induced dammed lake[J].Quaternary Sciences,2004,24(3):293-301.(in Chinese))
[3]中国水利水电科学研究院水利史研究室.1933年岷江叠溪地震堰塞湖的形成及次生灾害[J].中国水利,2008(10):102-103.(Department of Water Conservancy History of China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research.Formation of dammedlake in Diexi earthquake in Minjiang basin in 1933 and its secondary hazards[J].China Water Resources,2008(10):102-103.(inChinese))
[4]ERMINI L,CASAGLI N.Prediction of the behavior of dams using a geomorphological dimensionless index[J].Earth Surface Processesand Landforms,2003,28:31-47.
[5]KORUP O.Geomorphometric characteristics of New Zealand landslide dams[J].Engineering Geology,2004,73:13-35.
[6]程春田,王本德.短期气象降雨预报在水库防洪调度中的可行性分析[J].大自然探索,1994,13(4):86-92.(CHENG Chun-tian,WANG Ben-de.Feasibility analysis of short-term precipitation forecast of meteorology in reservoir flood operation[J].Exploration ofNature,1994,13(4):86-92.(in Chinese))
[7]王本德,朱永英,张改红,等.应用中央气象台24 h降雨预报的可行性分析[J].水文,2005,25(3):30-34.(WANG Ben-de,ZHU Yong-ying,ZHANG Gai-hong,et al.Feasibility analysis of applying 24 h precipitation forecasts from the central meteorologicalobservatory[J].Hydrology,2005,25(3):30-34.(in Chinese))
[8]邱瑞田,王本德,周惠成.水库汛期限制水位控制理论与观念的更新探讨[J].水科学进展,2004,15(1):68-72.(QIU Rui-tian,WANG Ben-de,ZHOU Hui-cheng.New idea for controlling the limited elevation of reservoirs in the flood season[J].Advances inWater Science,2004,15(1):68-72.(in Chinese))
[9]袁晶暄,王本德,王福兴,等.基于短期降雨预报信息的水库汛期库水位实时动态控制方法研究[J].水力发电学报,2008,27(4):15-19.(YUAN Jing-xuan,WANG Ben-de,WANG Fu-xing,et al.Study on real-time dynamic operation of reservoir level in floodseason based on short-term rainfall forecast information[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2008,27(4):15-19.(in Chinese))
[10]王光谦,刘家宏.数字流域模型[M].北京:科学出版社,2006.
[11]GARBRECHT J,MARTZ L W.TOPAZ overview[R].Oklahoma:USDA ARS,Grazinglands Research Laboratory,1999.
[12]李铁键,王光谦,刘家宏.数字流域模型的河网编码方法[J].水科学进展,2006,17(5):658-664.(LI Tie-jian,WANG Guang-qian,LIU Jia-hong.Drainage network codification method for digital watershed model[J].Advances in Water Science,2006,17(5):658-664.(in Chinese))
[13]李铁键.流域泥沙动力学机理与过程模拟[D].北京:清华大学,2008.
[14]王光谦,李铁键,贺莉,等.黄土丘陵沟壑区沟道的水沙运动模拟[J].泥沙研究,2008(3):19-25.(WANG Guang-qian,LI Tie-jian,HE Li,et al.Sediment transport simulation for the drainage network in the gullied rolling loess region[J].Journal of Hydrology,2008(3):19-25.(in Chinese))
[15]BANDARAGODA G,TARBOTON D G,WOODS R.Application of TOPNET in the distributed model intercomparison project[J].Journalof Hydrology,2004,298:178-201.
[16]王加虎.分布式水文模型理论与方法研究[D].南京:河海大学,2006.
[17]水利部农村水利司,中国灌溉排水发展中心.节水灌溉工程实用手册[K].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2005.
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