地震时空影响域、复发间隔和有效孕震时间
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摘要
研究表明 ,地震的时空影响域 (影响范围 )在t(时间 ) r(距离 )坐标上具有双曲线型的边界曲线 ,t=0时的最大影响半径为r0 ,r=0时的最大影响时间 (即原地复发间隔 )为t0 。根据我国华北、西北、青藏和西南等地区后继地震相对于先发地震的时、距分布状况 ,经优化拟合和统计分析 ,确定了地震时空影响域的优化边界曲线及 90 %置信度边界曲线。以三维 (时间 -距离 -震级 )的“地震时空影响域”概念取代一维 (时间 )或二维 (时间 -震级 )的“复发间隔”概念 ,为认识地震活动涨落起伏的实质、估计潜在震源的有效孕震时间和改进地震的中长期预测提供了新的思路。
The study shows that earthquake|affected time|space domain(ETSD),i.e.a time|space range in which the occurrence of posterior earthquakes are restricted,has a hyperbolic margin curve on %t%(time)|%r%(distance) coordinates,which has the maximum affected radius %r-0% at %t=0% and the maximum influence time %t-0% (i.e.the recurrence interval of earthquakes at same site)at %r=0%.Based on the time|distance distributions of posterior earthquakes relative to prior ones in the regions of North China,Northwest China,Qinghai|Xiang plateau and Southwest China,the optimized and 90%|confidence|level margin curves are estimated using the optimization fitting and statistic analysis methods.It is indicated that the concept and method of ETSD with 3|dimension (time|distance|magnitudes)instead of those of !recurrence interval" with 1|dimension(time)or 2|dimension (time|magnitude)provides a new approach to understanding the fluctuation of seismic activities,estimating the effective earthquake|preparation time of potential hypocenters,and therefore improving the medium| and long|term prediction of strong earthquakes.
The study shows that earthquake|affected time|space domain(ETSD),i.e.a time|space range in which the occurrence of posterior earthquakes are restricted,has a hyperbolic margin curve on %t%(time)|%r%(distance) coordinates,which has the maximum affected radius %r-0% at %t=0% and the maximum influence time %t-0% (i.e.the recurrence interval of earthquakes at same site)at %r=0%.Based on the time|distance distributions of posterior earthquakes relative to prior ones in the regions of North China,Northwest China,Qinghai|Xiang plateau and Southwest China,the optimized and 90%|confidence|level margin curves are estimated using the optimization fitting and statistic analysis methods.It is indicated that the concept and method of ETSD with 3|dimension (time|distance|magnitudes)instead of those of !recurrence interval" with 1|dimension(time)or 2|dimension (time|magnitude)provides a new approach to understanding the fluctuation of seismic activities,estimating the effective earthquake|preparation time of potential hypocenters,and therefore improving the medium| and long|term prediction of strong earthquakes.
引文
丁国瑜,1986,我国地震地质研究近况,见:张存德(责任编辑),中国地震年鉴(1984),44～48,北京:地震出版社。
江娃利、侯治华、肖振敏等,2000,北京平原夏垫断裂齐心庄探槽古地震事件分析,地震地质,22(4),413～422。
冉勇康、邓起东、杨晓平等,1997,1679年三河-平谷8级地震发震断层的古地震及其重复间隔,地震地质,19(3),193～201。
王绳祖,1990,浅源强震的判据和发震概率,地震地质,12(2),131～140。
王绳祖,1993,青藏高原中部地区潜在震源发震概率的构造物理方法研究,地震地质,15(1),1～20。
闻学泽,1999,中国大陆活动断裂的段破裂地震复发行为,地震学报,21(4),411～418。
鄢家全、贾素娟,1993,华北地区大地震的减震作用,国家地震局震害防御司编,中国地震区划文集,112～125,北京:地震出版社。
易桂喜、闻学泽,2000,活动断裂带的整体地震复发行为及其与分段地震复发行为的关系,地震学报,22(5),527～537。
张郢珍、张立人、粟生平等,1991,地壳极限应变与危险区强震发生的概率估计,中国地震,7(2),31～36。
中国科学院地球物理研究所,1976,地震学基础,北京:科学出版社。
中国科学院数学研究所统计组,1973,常用数理统计方法,北京:科学出版社。
B th,M .,1973,IntroductiontoSeismology,BaselandStuttgart:BirkhauserVerlag.
Kasahara,K .,1981,EarthquakeMechanics,Cambridge:CambridgeUniv.Press.
Nishenko,S .P .andBuland,R .,1987,Agenericrecurrenceintervaldistributionforearthquakeforecasting.Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,77(4),1382～1399.
Savage,J .C .andCockerham,R .S .,1987,Quasi periodicoccurrenceofearthquakesinthe1978-1986BishopMammothlakessequence,easternCalifornia,Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,77(4),1347～1358.
Schwartz,D .P .andCoppersmith,K .J.,1984,Faultbehaviorandcharacteristicearthquake:ExamplefromtheWasatchandSanAndreasfaultzones,J .Geophys.Res.,89(B7).5681～5698.
WangShengzu,1996,Atectonophysicalmethodforearthquakeprediction:Applicationsofthemulti criterionprincipleandthe“VorNet”continentaldynamicsmodel,SeismologyandGeology(地震地质),18(Suppl.),71～85.
力武常次,1978,地震予知,见:金森博雄主编,地震の物理.东京:岩波书店,169～210。
力武常次,1981,日本各地の地震危险度.东京:サイエンス社.
江娃利、侯治华、肖振敏等,2000,北京平原夏垫断裂齐心庄探槽古地震事件分析,地震地质,22(4),413～422。
冉勇康、邓起东、杨晓平等,1997,1679年三河-平谷8级地震发震断层的古地震及其重复间隔,地震地质,19(3),193～201。
王绳祖,1990,浅源强震的判据和发震概率,地震地质,12(2),131～140。
王绳祖,1993,青藏高原中部地区潜在震源发震概率的构造物理方法研究,地震地质,15(1),1～20。
闻学泽,1999,中国大陆活动断裂的段破裂地震复发行为,地震学报,21(4),411～418。
鄢家全、贾素娟,1993,华北地区大地震的减震作用,国家地震局震害防御司编,中国地震区划文集,112～125,北京:地震出版社。
易桂喜、闻学泽,2000,活动断裂带的整体地震复发行为及其与分段地震复发行为的关系,地震学报,22(5),527～537。
张郢珍、张立人、粟生平等,1991,地壳极限应变与危险区强震发生的概率估计,中国地震,7(2),31～36。
中国科学院地球物理研究所,1976,地震学基础,北京:科学出版社。
中国科学院数学研究所统计组,1973,常用数理统计方法,北京:科学出版社。
B th,M .,1973,IntroductiontoSeismology,BaselandStuttgart:BirkhauserVerlag.
Kasahara,K .,1981,EarthquakeMechanics,Cambridge:CambridgeUniv.Press.
Nishenko,S .P .andBuland,R .,1987,Agenericrecurrenceintervaldistributionforearthquakeforecasting.Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,77(4),1382～1399.
Savage,J .C .andCockerham,R .S .,1987,Quasi periodicoccurrenceofearthquakesinthe1978-1986BishopMammothlakessequence,easternCalifornia,Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,77(4),1347～1358.
Schwartz,D .P .andCoppersmith,K .J.,1984,Faultbehaviorandcharacteristicearthquake:ExamplefromtheWasatchandSanAndreasfaultzones,J .Geophys.Res.,89(B7).5681～5698.
WangShengzu,1996,Atectonophysicalmethodforearthquakeprediction:Applicationsofthemulti criterionprincipleandthe“VorNet”continentaldynamicsmodel,SeismologyandGeology(地震地质),18(Suppl.),71～85.
力武常次,1978,地震予知,见:金森博雄主编,地震の物理.东京:岩波书店,169～210。
力武常次,1981,日本各地の地震危险度.东京:サイエンス社.
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