基于统计数据离散性的混合滑动模型改进
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摘要
介绍了用于估计有限断层震源模型的混合滑动模型方法,并针对方法中采用半经验关系式计算模型参数值的过程进行了改进.将模型参数视为正态随机变量,其均值为用半经验关系式算得的模型参数值,其方差为统计半经验关系式过程中得到的标准偏差.由此,对应一给定震级,每一个模型参数均能产生若干不同参数值,可表达统计数据的离散性.着重论述了改进中对某些模型参数的特殊处理方法,并借助一具体实例展示了改进后混合滑动模型方法的应用步骤.算例结果显示,对应一目标震级,改进后的模型可生成若干尺寸和滑动分布各异的有限断层震源模型,为表达未来地震震源的不确定性提供了参考.
The hybrid slip model to estimate the finite fault model is introduced first and then it is improved regarding its performance of calculating model parameter by semi-empirical relationship.In the improvement,model parameters are treated as normal random variables.The centre of normal distribution is computed by semi-empirical relationship,and the variance of normal distribution is equal to the standard deviation derived from the statistic of semi-empirical relationship.For a given magnitude,using the improved hybrid slip model could yield many different values for each model parameter,which can better describe the scatter of statistical data about the mean.Special performances for certain model parameters taken in the improvement are discussed,and a case study demonstrates the application procedure of the improved hybrid slip model.Shown in the case study,It is proved that the improved model can generate many finite fault models with different dimensions and slip distributions for one given moment magnitude,which offers references for the source estimation of a future earthquake.
The hybrid slip model to estimate the finite fault model is introduced first and then it is improved regarding its performance of calculating model parameter by semi-empirical relationship.In the improvement,model parameters are treated as normal random variables.The centre of normal distribution is computed by semi-empirical relationship,and the variance of normal distribution is equal to the standard deviation derived from the statistic of semi-empirical relationship.For a given magnitude,using the improved hybrid slip model could yield many different values for each model parameter,which can better describe the scatter of statistical data about the mean.Special performances for certain model parameters taken in the improvement are discussed,and a case study demonstrates the application procedure of the improved hybrid slip model.Shown in the case study,It is proved that the improved model can generate many finite fault models with different dimensions and slip distributions for one given moment magnitude,which offers references for the source estimation of a future earthquake.
引文
[1]TAO X X,ANDERSON J G.Near field strong ground motion simulation[C]//Proceeding of the Internation-al Conference on Advances and New Challenges in Earthquake Engineering Research.Harbin,China:U-niversity of Illinois,2002:79-86.
[2]OLSON A H,ASPEL R J.Finite fault model and in-verse theory with application to the1979Imperial Val-ley earthquake[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Soci-ety of America,1982,72:1969-2001.
[3]FUKUYAMA E,IRIKURA K.Rupture progress of the1983Japan Sea(Akita-Oki)earthquake using wave-form inversion method[J].Bulletin of the Seismologi-cal Society of America,1986,76:1623-1640.
[4]TAKEO M.An inversion method to analyze the rupture progresses of earthquakes using near-field seismograms[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1987,77:490-513.
[5]LAY T,KANAMORI H.An asperity model of great earthquake sequences[C]//Earthquake Prediction-An International Review,Geophysical Monograph Se-ries,American Geophysical Union.Washington D.C:American Geophysical Union,1981:14.
[6]TSAI P C C.Ground motion modeling for seismic hazard analysis in the near-source regime:An asperity model[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,1997,149:265-297.
[7]ANDREWS D J.A stochastic fault model:1.Staticzcase[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,1980,85:3867-3877.
[8]ANDREWS D J.A stochastic fault model:2.Time-inde-pendent case[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,1981,86:10821-10834.
[9]ZENG Y H,ADERSON J G,GUANG Y.A composite source model for computing realistic synthetic strong ground motions reference[J].Geophysical Research Letters,1994,21(8):725-728.
[10]HISEDE Y.A theoretical omega-square model consid-ering the spatial variation in slip and rupture velocity.Part2:case for a two-dimensional source model[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,2001,91(4):651-666.
[11]WANG H Y.Finite Fault Model Source Model for Pre-dicting Near-Field Strong Ground Motion[D].Har-bin:Institute of Engineering Mechanics China Earth-quake Administration,2004.
[12]SOMERVILLE P G,IRIKURA K,GRAVES R W,WALD D,ABRAHAMSON N,IWASAKI Y,KAGAWA T,SMITH N,KOWADA A.Characterizing crustal earthquake slip models for the prediction of strong ground motion[J].Seismological Research Letters,1999,70(1):59-80.
[13]GALLOVIC F,BROKESOVE J.On strong ground mo-tion synthesis with k-2slip distributions[J].Journal of Seismology,2002,8(2):211-224.
[14]欧进萍,王光远.结构随机振动[M].北京:国防工业出版社,1998.
[15]孙晓丹.震源对大跨度空间结构地震动输入的影响[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学,2005.
[16]陶夏新,孙晓丹.九龙江断裂上6级强烈地震引起的漳州盆地及周边地区地震动预测工作报告[R].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学,2007.
[17]陶夏新,孙晓丹.兰州市活断层地震危害性评价工作报告[R].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学,2007.
[2]OLSON A H,ASPEL R J.Finite fault model and in-verse theory with application to the1979Imperial Val-ley earthquake[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Soci-ety of America,1982,72:1969-2001.
[3]FUKUYAMA E,IRIKURA K.Rupture progress of the1983Japan Sea(Akita-Oki)earthquake using wave-form inversion method[J].Bulletin of the Seismologi-cal Society of America,1986,76:1623-1640.
[4]TAKEO M.An inversion method to analyze the rupture progresses of earthquakes using near-field seismograms[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1987,77:490-513.
[5]LAY T,KANAMORI H.An asperity model of great earthquake sequences[C]//Earthquake Prediction-An International Review,Geophysical Monograph Se-ries,American Geophysical Union.Washington D.C:American Geophysical Union,1981:14.
[6]TSAI P C C.Ground motion modeling for seismic hazard analysis in the near-source regime:An asperity model[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,1997,149:265-297.
[7]ANDREWS D J.A stochastic fault model:1.Staticzcase[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,1980,85:3867-3877.
[8]ANDREWS D J.A stochastic fault model:2.Time-inde-pendent case[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,1981,86:10821-10834.
[9]ZENG Y H,ADERSON J G,GUANG Y.A composite source model for computing realistic synthetic strong ground motions reference[J].Geophysical Research Letters,1994,21(8):725-728.
[10]HISEDE Y.A theoretical omega-square model consid-ering the spatial variation in slip and rupture velocity.Part2:case for a two-dimensional source model[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,2001,91(4):651-666.
[11]WANG H Y.Finite Fault Model Source Model for Pre-dicting Near-Field Strong Ground Motion[D].Har-bin:Institute of Engineering Mechanics China Earth-quake Administration,2004.
[12]SOMERVILLE P G,IRIKURA K,GRAVES R W,WALD D,ABRAHAMSON N,IWASAKI Y,KAGAWA T,SMITH N,KOWADA A.Characterizing crustal earthquake slip models for the prediction of strong ground motion[J].Seismological Research Letters,1999,70(1):59-80.
[13]GALLOVIC F,BROKESOVE J.On strong ground mo-tion synthesis with k-2slip distributions[J].Journal of Seismology,2002,8(2):211-224.
[14]欧进萍,王光远.结构随机振动[M].北京:国防工业出版社,1998.
[15]孙晓丹.震源对大跨度空间结构地震动输入的影响[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学,2005.
[16]陶夏新,孙晓丹.九龙江断裂上6级强烈地震引起的漳州盆地及周边地区地震动预测工作报告[R].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学,2007.
[17]陶夏新,孙晓丹.兰州市活断层地震危害性评价工作报告[R].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学,2007.
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