中长期地震危险区地壳形变场标志的研究
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摘要
本文总结了一些震例震前的垂直形变特征，对垂直形变高梯度带和隆起区的形成机制和孕震原理作了分析，认为这两类形变异常区作为中长期地震危险区预测的地域标志是合理的。讨论了震级与形变异常区范围的一般关系，最后讨论了按贝叶斯公式计算形变异常区发生地震概率的方法。
In reference to the work completed by many researchers,the vertical deformation characteristics prior to earthquake events are summarized,the formative mechanism and the principle of generative earthquakes of the high gradient zone and the rising area are analysed.It is reasonable that the anomalous deformation area mentioned above is regarded as the seismic risk area to be predicted in Long-intermediate period. In addition, the general relation between the magnitude of an earthquake and the range of an anomalous deformation area, and the method for determining the probability of earthquake occurence in the risk area are discussed respectively.
In reference to the work completed by many researchers,the vertical deformation characteristics prior to earthquake events are summarized,the formative mechanism and the principle of generative earthquakes of the high gradient zone and the rising area are analysed.It is reasonable that the anomalous deformation area mentioned above is regarded as the seismic risk area to be predicted in Long-intermediate period. In addition, the general relation between the magnitude of an earthquake and the range of an anomalous deformation area, and the method for determining the probability of earthquake occurence in the risk area are discussed respectively.
引文
1张祖胜．应用大地形变测量资料估计我国大陆地区近几十年的地震趋势，中国地震大形势预测研究．北京：地震出版社．1990．2应绍奋等．中国大陆垂直向现代地壳运动基本待征．中国地震．1988，4（4）．3郭增建等．从水平力和垂直力的相互作用讨论我国境内地震的孕育和发生．地球物理学报，1977，20（3）．4于宗俦．用动态平差方法研究唐山地区的地壳垂直形变规律．地壳形变与地震．1983，3（2）．5耿庆国．震源体积与地震震级关系．地震科学研究．1984．（3）．6浙江大学数学系．概率论与数理统计．人民教育出版社．1979，23－28．7平建军等．华北地区强震复发的概率分布．华北地震科学．1989，7（3）．8龚鸿庆等．华北地区地震的时间分布特征及其意义．华北地震科学．1989，7（3）．
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