张北6.2级地震的孕育过程和前兆特征研究
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摘要
张北地震发生在通常认为稳定的、浅部构造不明显、历史上地震活动微弱的地区，但是根据小震活动条带推测可能存在一条NW走向的深部断裂。张北地震的孕育可能与区域断层的长期活动、中小地震持续活跃以及外围强震的增震作用有关。震前存在地震活动空段、4级地震条带、区域小震群活跃以及平静—收缩—信号震—外围活动增强等特征。有比较丰富的中长趋势异常，持续时间长达3年以上，而短临异常并不突出。对张北地震异常进行信度综合分析发现，不论前兆异常在空间上的分布多么复杂和不均匀，其综合信度场总是只有一个极大值点，并以极大值为中心呈规则的椭圆分布，地震发生在极值区附近。
The Zhangbei earthquake occurred in an area which was considered to be stable and where shallow tectonic structures were not obvious and seismic activity were week in history; but according to small earthquake activity belts, it can be inferred that there might be a NW strike deep fault. The development of the Zhangbei earthquake may be related to a long term activity of the regional fault,the continued activity of moderately strong and small earthquakes and the earthquake increasing action of strong earthquakes occurred in the outside area. Before the earthquake, there were seismic activity gap stage, magnitude 4 earthquakes belt, regional active small earthquake group and the characteristics of quiet-contraction-signal earthquake-activity increase in the outside area. There were relatively abundant mid-term tendency anomalies which lasted for more than 3 years,but the short-term and imminent anomalies were not outstanding.After the confidence comprehensive analysis for the anomalies of the Zhangbei earthquake,it is found that on matter how complicated and nonuniform the spacial distribution of the precursory anomalies are,the comprehensive confidence field always showed an extremely big value point,and showed a regular elliptical distribution comered around the extreme value,the earthquake occurred near the extreme value area.
The Zhangbei earthquake occurred in an area which was considered to be stable and where shallow tectonic structures were not obvious and seismic activity were week in history; but according to small earthquake activity belts, it can be inferred that there might be a NW strike deep fault. The development of the Zhangbei earthquake may be related to a long term activity of the regional fault,the continued activity of moderately strong and small earthquakes and the earthquake increasing action of strong earthquakes occurred in the outside area. Before the earthquake, there were seismic activity gap stage, magnitude 4 earthquakes belt, regional active small earthquake group and the characteristics of quiet-contraction-signal earthquake-activity increase in the outside area. There were relatively abundant mid-term tendency anomalies which lasted for more than 3 years,but the short-term and imminent anomalies were not outstanding.After the confidence comprehensive analysis for the anomalies of the Zhangbei earthquake,it is found that on matter how complicated and nonuniform the spacial distribution of the precursory anomalies are,the comprehensive confidence field always showed an extremely big value point,and showed a regular elliptical distribution comered around the extreme value,the earthquake occurred near the extreme value area.
引文
1 张国民,李丽.强震成组孕育、成组发生过程中相互间影响的研究.地震1997,17(3)
2 霍茨.科学家们认为每一次大地震都会引起另一次地震.国际地震动态,1995,(3)
3 陈绍绪.李文英,等.唐山地震的孕育与强震的增震作用,华北地震科学,1996,14(2)
4 陈绍绪,李文英.大同──阳高地震的孕育和强震的“增震作用”,山西地震,1995,(1)
5 李钦祖,于利民等,中国大陆强地震的成组活动和概率预报,中国科学(B辑),1993,23
2 霍茨.科学家们认为每一次大地震都会引起另一次地震.国际地震动态,1995,(3)
3 陈绍绪.李文英,等.唐山地震的孕育与强震的增震作用,华北地震科学,1996,14(2)
4 陈绍绪,李文英.大同──阳高地震的孕育和强震的“增震作用”,山西地震,1995,(1)
5 李钦祖,于利民等,中国大陆强地震的成组活动和概率预报,中国科学(B辑),1993,23
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