关于地震预测预报的认识论和方法论问题
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摘要
要取得对地震规律的正确认识,必须由小科学走向大科学。地震预测的基本特点是:对象复杂、进路多元、处理集成、结果随机;基本方法是:广泛搜集天、地、史的相关信息开展综合研究,改"求常"思维为"求异"思维。在实践层面必须突破工程化的科研模式,向"群测群防"的方针复归,积极有序地组织预测的社会参与,增加预测的透明度,改精确性预报为概率性预报,逐步降低社会高层和基层之间的信息不对称程度,提高社会对预报的心理承受能力。
To gain a correct understanding of the law of the earthquake,we must change our view from small science to big science.The basic characteristics are:the target complex,pluralistic approach to deal with integration,the results of random.The basic approach is:a broad collection of Heaven,Earth,the history of the relevant information to carry out a comprehensive study to "regular order" thinking "difference" thinking.In practice,we should break the level of scientific research and engineering model and turn to the "mass monitoring",reverting to the active and orderly society organizations to participate in the forecast;the forecast increase in the transparency of the accuracy of the forecast should be changed to probabilistic forecast,gradually reduce the level of the asymmetry of information between the grass-roots level and improve the forecasting of social psychological endurance.
To gain a correct understanding of the law of the earthquake,we must change our view from small science to big science.The basic characteristics are:the target complex,pluralistic approach to deal with integration,the results of random.The basic approach is:a broad collection of Heaven,Earth,the history of the relevant information to carry out a comprehensive study to "regular order" thinking "difference" thinking.In practice,we should break the level of scientific research and engineering model and turn to the "mass monitoring",reverting to the active and orderly society organizations to participate in the forecast;the forecast increase in the transparency of the accuracy of the forecast should be changed to probabilistic forecast,gradually reduce the level of the asymmetry of information between the grass-roots level and improve the forecasting of social psychological endurance.
引文
[1]徐道一:《为什么说大地震是有可能预测的》,载《科学对社会的影响》,2008(2)。
[2][10]陈学雷:《对地震预测不宜期待过高》,载《光明日报》,2008-06-02,11版。
[3]恩格斯:《自然辩证法》,北京,人民出版社,1984。
[4][6]赵红州:《大科学观》,北京,人民出版社,1988。
[5]玻姆:《现代物理学中的因果性与机遇》,北京,商务印书馆,1965。
[7]托马斯.库恩:《科学革命的结构》,北京,北京大学出版社,2003。
[8]刘念龙:《地震学和蟾蜍谁更可靠》,载《光明日报》,2008-06-11,9版。
[9]黄永明、苏青:《地震预报与波普尔时代的终结》,载《科技导报》,2008(10)。
[2][10]陈学雷:《对地震预测不宜期待过高》,载《光明日报》,2008-06-02,11版。
[3]恩格斯:《自然辩证法》,北京,人民出版社,1984。
[4][6]赵红州:《大科学观》,北京,人民出版社,1988。
[5]玻姆:《现代物理学中的因果性与机遇》,北京,商务印书馆,1965。
[7]托马斯.库恩:《科学革命的结构》,北京,北京大学出版社,2003。
[8]刘念龙:《地震学和蟾蜍谁更可靠》,载《光明日报》,2008-06-11,9版。
[9]黄永明、苏青:《地震预报与波普尔时代的终结》,载《科技导报》,2008(10)。
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