矿业城市经济系统脆弱性评价——以铜陵市为例
|
摘要
矿业城市经济系统脆弱性包含敏感性和适应性两方面,具有典型的复杂、非线性系统特征。以一般系统理论构建敏感性和适应性发展水平和发展速度评价模型,以反正切函数构建二者耦合度评价模型,并以耦合度表征经济系统的脆弱度。以铜陵市为例,2001-2010年该市经济系统敏感性和适应性状态值呈递增正相关变化,适应性变化速度快于敏感性(前者先递增后递减,后者平稳递增);脆弱度在2005年前递增,之后递减,评价结果与铜陵市经济发展实际相符。基于一般系统理论的耦合度评价模型为矿业城市经济系统脆弱性研究提供了一种新途径。
The economic system′s vulnerability of mining city contains two aspects of sensitivity and adaptability,and is a typical complex,nonlinear system.Based on the general system theory to construct evaluation model for the sensitivity and adaptability of the level and speed of development,and based on the arctangent function to construct evaluation model for coupling degree of the two systems,and using the coupling degree to express the vulnerability of economy system,the results showed that,from 2001 to 2010 in Tongling City,the sensitivity and adaptive state values of the economy system showed increasing positive relation each other,and adaptive changes faster than sensitivity;sensitivity and adaptive speed value changes are different,the former is increasing firstly and then decreasing,the latter increases by degrees smoothly;vulnerability is increasing firstly and then decreasing,segmentation points is before and after 2005;the results of evaluation are consistent with the actual situation of economy development of Tongling,and based on the general theory of system coupling degree evaluation model provides a new way for economic system vulnerability research of mining city.
The economic system′s vulnerability of mining city contains two aspects of sensitivity and adaptability,and is a typical complex,nonlinear system.Based on the general system theory to construct evaluation model for the sensitivity and adaptability of the level and speed of development,and based on the arctangent function to construct evaluation model for coupling degree of the two systems,and using the coupling degree to express the vulnerability of economy system,the results showed that,from 2001 to 2010 in Tongling City,the sensitivity and adaptive state values of the economy system showed increasing positive relation each other,and adaptive changes faster than sensitivity;sensitivity and adaptive speed value changes are different,the former is increasing firstly and then decreasing,the latter increases by degrees smoothly;vulnerability is increasing firstly and then decreasing,segmentation points is before and after 2005;the results of evaluation are consistent with the actual situation of economy development of Tongling,and based on the general theory of system coupling degree evaluation model provides a new way for economic system vulnerability research of mining city.
引文
[1]TURNER B L,MATSON P A,MCCARTHY J J,et al.Illus-trating the coupled human environment system for vulnerability analysis:Three case studies[A].Proceedings of the National A-cademy of Sciences of the United States of America[C].2003,100(14):8080-8085.
[2]TURNER B L,KASPERSON R E,MATSON P A.A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science[A].Proceed-ings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America[C].2003,100(14):8074-8079.
[3]CUTTER S L.The vulnerability of science and the science of vulnerability[J].Annals of the Association of American Geog-raphers,2003,93(1):1-12.
[4]那伟,刘继生.辽源市经济系统的脆弱性及其规避措施研究[J].地理科学,2009,29(5):666-672.
[5]李鹤,张平宇.东北地区矿业城市经济系统脆弱性分析[J].煤炭学报,2008,33(1):116-121.
[6]孙平军,修春亮.脆弱性视角的矿业城市人地耦合系统的耦合度评价——以阜新市为例[J].地域研究与开发,2010,29(6):75-79.
[7]苏飞,张平宇.基于集对分析的大庆市经济系统脆弱性评价[J].地理学报,2010,65(4):454-464.
[8]那伟,刘继生.矿业城市人地系统的脆弱性及其评价体系[J].城市问题,2007(5):43-48.
[9]孙平军,修春亮.辽宁矿业城市经济系统应对能力分析及其脆弱性评价[J].云南地理环境研究,2010,22(4):47-53.
[10]李鹤,张平宇.东北地区矿业城市社会就业脆弱性分析[J].地理研究,2009,28(3):751-760.
[11]李博,韩增林.沿海城市人海关系地域系统脆弱性分类研究[J].地理与地理信息科学,2010,26(3):78-81.
[12]史兴民,韩申山,安鹏飞,等.中西部典型资源型城市环境脆弱性评价[J].地域研究与开发,2010,29(6):63-68.
[13]顾康康,刘景双,王洋,等.辽中地区矿业城市生态系统脆弱性研究[J].地理科学,2008,28(6):759-764.
[14]孙书良,刘大千,杨凤敏.基于脆弱性理论东北地区典型煤炭城市社会系统研究[J].现代农业科学,2009,16(6):119-122.
[15]辛馨,张平宇.基于三角图法的矿业城市人地系统脆弱性分类[J].煤炭学报,2009,34(2):284-288.
[16]孙平军,修春亮.阜新市经济系统脆弱性分区研究[J].资源产业,2010,12(3):1-7.
[17]李鹤,张平宇,程叶青.脆弱性概念及其评价方法[J].地理科学进展,2008,27(2):18-25.
[18]MCCARTHY J J,CANZIANI O F,LEAFY N A,et al.Cli-mate Change2001:Impacts,Adaptation and Vulnerability,Third Assessment Report of the IPCC[M].Cambridge UK:University Press,2001.
[19]ADGER W N.Vulnerability[J].Global Environmental Change,2006,16(3):268-281.
[20]YOHE G,TOL R S J.Indicators for social and economic cop-ing capacity-moving toward a working definition of adaptive capaci-ty[J].Global Environmental Change,2002,12(1):25-40.
[21]史培军,王静爱,陈婧,等.当代地理学之人地相互作用研究的趋向——全球变化人类行为计划(IHDP)第六届开放会议透视[J].地理学报,2006,61(2):115-126.
[22]GALLOPIN G C.A systemic synthesis of the relations be-tween vulnerability,hazard,exposure and impact,aimed at pol-icy identification[A].Handbook for Estimating the Socio-Eco-nomic and Environmental Effects of Disasters[C].ECLAC,Mexico,D.F.,2003.
[23]杨娜,李慧明.基于因子分析与熵值法的水资源承载力研究——以天津市为例[J].软科学,2010,24(6):66-70.
[24]李崇明,丁烈云.小城镇资源环境与社会经济协调发展评价模型及应用研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2004(11):134-144.
[2]TURNER B L,KASPERSON R E,MATSON P A.A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science[A].Proceed-ings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America[C].2003,100(14):8074-8079.
[3]CUTTER S L.The vulnerability of science and the science of vulnerability[J].Annals of the Association of American Geog-raphers,2003,93(1):1-12.
[4]那伟,刘继生.辽源市经济系统的脆弱性及其规避措施研究[J].地理科学,2009,29(5):666-672.
[5]李鹤,张平宇.东北地区矿业城市经济系统脆弱性分析[J].煤炭学报,2008,33(1):116-121.
[6]孙平军,修春亮.脆弱性视角的矿业城市人地耦合系统的耦合度评价——以阜新市为例[J].地域研究与开发,2010,29(6):75-79.
[7]苏飞,张平宇.基于集对分析的大庆市经济系统脆弱性评价[J].地理学报,2010,65(4):454-464.
[8]那伟,刘继生.矿业城市人地系统的脆弱性及其评价体系[J].城市问题,2007(5):43-48.
[9]孙平军,修春亮.辽宁矿业城市经济系统应对能力分析及其脆弱性评价[J].云南地理环境研究,2010,22(4):47-53.
[10]李鹤,张平宇.东北地区矿业城市社会就业脆弱性分析[J].地理研究,2009,28(3):751-760.
[11]李博,韩增林.沿海城市人海关系地域系统脆弱性分类研究[J].地理与地理信息科学,2010,26(3):78-81.
[12]史兴民,韩申山,安鹏飞,等.中西部典型资源型城市环境脆弱性评价[J].地域研究与开发,2010,29(6):63-68.
[13]顾康康,刘景双,王洋,等.辽中地区矿业城市生态系统脆弱性研究[J].地理科学,2008,28(6):759-764.
[14]孙书良,刘大千,杨凤敏.基于脆弱性理论东北地区典型煤炭城市社会系统研究[J].现代农业科学,2009,16(6):119-122.
[15]辛馨,张平宇.基于三角图法的矿业城市人地系统脆弱性分类[J].煤炭学报,2009,34(2):284-288.
[16]孙平军,修春亮.阜新市经济系统脆弱性分区研究[J].资源产业,2010,12(3):1-7.
[17]李鹤,张平宇,程叶青.脆弱性概念及其评价方法[J].地理科学进展,2008,27(2):18-25.
[18]MCCARTHY J J,CANZIANI O F,LEAFY N A,et al.Cli-mate Change2001:Impacts,Adaptation and Vulnerability,Third Assessment Report of the IPCC[M].Cambridge UK:University Press,2001.
[19]ADGER W N.Vulnerability[J].Global Environmental Change,2006,16(3):268-281.
[20]YOHE G,TOL R S J.Indicators for social and economic cop-ing capacity-moving toward a working definition of adaptive capaci-ty[J].Global Environmental Change,2002,12(1):25-40.
[21]史培军,王静爱,陈婧,等.当代地理学之人地相互作用研究的趋向——全球变化人类行为计划(IHDP)第六届开放会议透视[J].地理学报,2006,61(2):115-126.
[22]GALLOPIN G C.A systemic synthesis of the relations be-tween vulnerability,hazard,exposure and impact,aimed at pol-icy identification[A].Handbook for Estimating the Socio-Eco-nomic and Environmental Effects of Disasters[C].ECLAC,Mexico,D.F.,2003.
[23]杨娜,李慧明.基于因子分析与熵值法的水资源承载力研究——以天津市为例[J].软科学,2010,24(6):66-70.
[24]李崇明,丁烈云.小城镇资源环境与社会经济协调发展评价模型及应用研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2004(11):134-144.
目录