基于气候区的全球干旱形势分析
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摘要
使用Mann-Kendall趋势检验方法对过去三十多年间全球陆地和各气候区的干旱变化进行了分析,得到了全球陆地和各气候区内的干旱变化情况。结果表明:在干旱发生影响范围上,湿润地区的影响范围更大,而在干旱发生的频率上,干旱半干旱地区的频率更高。同时,热带季风气候区、热带稀树草原气候区、沙漠气候区、湿润亚热带气候区和海洋性气候区干旱面积有显著变大趋势,全球陆地、湿润大陆性气候区、亚寒带气候区和苔原气候区干旱面积有显著变小趋势。文章又对过去三十多年间全球和各气候区的变干趋势和变湿趋势进行了研究,发现全球20%以上的陆地有显著变干趋势,20%以上的陆地有显著变湿趋势,其中热带季风气候区和热带稀树草原气候区有40%以上面积有显著变干趋势,亚寒带气候区和苔原气候区有40%以上面积有显著变湿趋势。
We analyzed changes in the world and climate zones under drought over the past three decades using Mann-Kendall trend test and showed how drought changed in the globe and different climate zones. The results revealed that, in terms of amplitude, it had a larger drought-influence-area in humid areas, but arid and semi-arid areas showed a higher frequency of drought. The results exhibited a significant growing trend in the area under drought over tropical monsoon climate zone, tropical savanna climate zone, desert climate zone, humid subtropical climate zone and oceanic climate zone, while there′s a significant shrinking trend in the area under drought over the global land, humid continental climate zone, subarctic climate zone and tundra climate zone. We investigated the drying and wetting trend in globe and climate zones over the past three decades, and we found that over 20% of lands of globe were getting drier and over 20% of lands of globe were getting wetter respectively, and over 40% of lands of tropical monsoon climate zone and tropical savanna climate zone showed the significant drying trend while over 40% of lands of subarctic climate zone and tundra climate zone showed the significant wetting trend.
We analyzed changes in the world and climate zones under drought over the past three decades using Mann-Kendall trend test and showed how drought changed in the globe and different climate zones. The results revealed that, in terms of amplitude, it had a larger drought-influence-area in humid areas, but arid and semi-arid areas showed a higher frequency of drought. The results exhibited a significant growing trend in the area under drought over tropical monsoon climate zone, tropical savanna climate zone, desert climate zone, humid subtropical climate zone and oceanic climate zone, while there′s a significant shrinking trend in the area under drought over the global land, humid continental climate zone, subarctic climate zone and tundra climate zone. We investigated the drying and wetting trend in globe and climate zones over the past three decades, and we found that over 20% of lands of globe were getting drier and over 20% of lands of globe were getting wetter respectively, and over 40% of lands of tropical monsoon climate zone and tropical savanna climate zone showed the significant drying trend while over 40% of lands of subarctic climate zone and tundra climate zone showed the significant wetting trend.
引文
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[7]Schwalm C R,Anderegg W RL,Michalak A M,et al.Global patterns of drought recovery[J].Nature,2017,548(7666):202-205.
[8]Lesk C,Rowhani P,Ramankutty N.Influence of extreme weather disasters on global crop production[J].Nature,2016,529(7584):84.
[9]Doughty C E,Metcalfe D B,Girardin C A J,et al.Drought impact on forest carbon dynamics and fluxes in Amazonia[J].Nature,2015,519(7541):78-82.
[10]McKee T B,Doesken N J,Kleist J.The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales[C].California:Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology,1993:179-184
[11]Hayes M,Svoboda M,Wall N,et al.The lincoln declaration on drought indices[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,2011,92(4):485-488.
[12]Zargar A,Sadiq R,Naser B,et al.A review of drought indices[J].Dossiers Environment,2011,19(1):333-349.
[13]Wang D,Hejazi M,Cai X,et al.Climate change impact on meteorological,agricultural,and hydrological drought in central Illinois[J].Water Resources Research.2011,47(9):1995-2021.
[14]Leng G,Tang Q,Rayburg S.Climate change impacts on meteorological,agricultural and hydrological droughts in China[J].Global and Planetary Change,2015,126(126):23-34.
[15]Hao Z,AghaKouchak A.Multivariate Standardized Drought Index:A parametric multi-index model[J].Advances in Water Resources,2013,57(9):12-18.
[16]Mo K C.Model-Based Drought Indices over the United States[J].Journal of Hydrometeorology,2008,9(6):1212-1230.
[17]张苗苗.基于SPI的近51a晋北地区旱涝变化及干旱事件时空特征研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2018,32(03):138-144.
[18]Park S,Im J,Jang E,et al.Drought assessment and monitoring through blending of multi-sensor indices using machine learning approaches for different climate regions[J].Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,2016,216:157-169.
[19]柳媛普,王素萍,王劲松,等.气候变暖背景下西南地区干旱灾害风险评估[J].自然资源学报,2018,33(02):325-336.
[20]Dallmann I,Millock K.Climate Variability and InterState Migration in India[J].Cesifo Economic Studies,2017,63(4):560-594.
[21]Young D J N,Stevens J T,Earles J M,et al.Longterm climate and competition explain forest mortality patterns under extreme drought[J].Ecology Letters,2017,20(1):78-86.
[22]王华,陈慧华,唐力生,等.气候变暖背景下广东冬种生产季气候资源和气象灾害的时空变化[J].应用生态学报,2018,29(01):93-102.
[23]Son KH,Bae DH.Drought analysis according to shifting of climate zones to arid climate zone over Asia monsoon region[J].Journal of Hydrology,2015,529:1021-1029.
[24]Hao Z,AghaKouchak A,Nakhjiri N,et al.Global integrated drought monitoring and prediction system[J].Scientific Data,2014,1.
[25]Kottek M,Grieser J,Beck C,et al.World Map of the K9ppen-Geiger climate classification updated[J].Meteorologische Zeitschrift,2006,15(3):259-263.
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[29]Sheffield J,Wood E F,Roderick M L.Little change in global drought over the past 60years[J].Nature,2012,491(7424):435-438.
[30]Damberg L,AghaKouchak A.Global trends and patterns of drought from space[J].Theoretical and Applied Climatology,2014,117(3-4):441-448.
[31]Easterling DR,Evans JL,Groisman PY,et al.Observed variability and trends in extreme climate events:A brief review[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,2000,81(3):417-426.
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