基于PSM和DID法的湿地自然保护区保护效果分析——以黑龙江省三江和挠力河国家级自然保护区为例
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摘要
运用遥感数据,以黑龙江省三江国家级湿地自然保护区和挠力河国家级自然保护区为例,建立线性回归模型、多项Logit模型、双重差分模型、倾向得分双重差分模型评估自然保护区的保护效果。通过对模型结果进行对比发现,相较于其他3种模型,倾向得分双重差分模型能够减少选择性偏差,以及直接采用双重差分模型产生的混杂偏误,从而得到更为真实的保护效果。倾向得分双重差分模型的结果表明,建立保护区能够有效保护湿地,且在1%的水平下显著,建立保护区比不建保护区湿地率增加6. 18%。
Based on remote sensing data,a linear regression model,multiple Logit models,difference-indifference model,and propensity score matching-difference in difference model are established to evaluate the conservation effectiveness of the Sanjiang National Wetland Nature Reserve and the Naolihe National Nature Reserve in Heilongjiang Province. The results showed that comparing with the other three models,the propensity score matching-difference in difference model can reduce the selection bias and the confounding bias,and obtaining a more realistic result. The result of the propensity score matching-difference in difference model shows that the establishment of nature reserve caused an increase of wetland area,which is significant at the level of 1%,and the wetland rate increased by 6. 18% compared with that without the reserve.
Based on remote sensing data,a linear regression model,multiple Logit models,difference-indifference model,and propensity score matching-difference in difference model are established to evaluate the conservation effectiveness of the Sanjiang National Wetland Nature Reserve and the Naolihe National Nature Reserve in Heilongjiang Province. The results showed that comparing with the other three models,the propensity score matching-difference in difference model can reduce the selection bias and the confounding bias,and obtaining a more realistic result. The result of the propensity score matching-difference in difference model shows that the establishment of nature reserve caused an increase of wetland area,which is significant at the level of 1%,and the wetland rate increased by 6. 18% compared with that without the reserve.
引文
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[30]王广慧,张世伟.基于倾向分匹配法的农民工培训收入效应实证研究---以吉林省为例[J].统计与信息论坛,2009(9):81-85.
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[32]吕朝凤,陈霄.地方官员会影响对外直接投资的区位选择吗---基于双重差分法的实证研究[J].国际贸易问题,2015(5):115-123.
[33]CAZZUFFI C,PEREIRA-LPEZ M,SOLOAGA I.Local poverty reduction in Chile and Mexico:The role of food manufacturing growth[J].Food Policy,2017,68:160-185.
[34]DJANKOV S,MURRELL P.Enterprise restructuring in transition:A quantitative survey[J].Journal of Economic Literature,2002,40(3):739-792.
[35]苑春永,陈福美,王耘,等.独生子女和非独生子女情绪适应的差异---基于倾向分数配对模型的估计[J].中国临床心理学杂志,2013,21(2):296-299.
[36]王广慧,张世伟.基于倾向分匹配法的农民工培训收入效应实证研究---以吉林省为例[J].统计与信息论坛,2009(9):81-85.
[37]吴盼盼.安徽省集体林权制度改革政策对森林资源影响的实证分析[J].劳动保障世界(理论版),2012(9):69-73.
[38]张墨,王璐,王军锋.基于双重差分倾向得分的排污权交易制度实施效果研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2017,31(11):26-32.
[39]刘金东,丁小平.我国劳动力市场收入歧视研究[J].华东经济管理,2012,26(11):56-59.
[40]NKALA P,MANGO N,ZIKHALI P.Conservation agriculture and livelihoods of smallholder farmers in central Mozambique[J].Journal of Sustainable Agriculture,2011,35(7):757-779.
[41]HONEY-ROSES J,BAYLIS K,ISABEL R M.A spatially explicit estimate of avoided forest loss[J].Conservation Biology,2011,25(5):1032-1043.
[42]DENG X Z,HUANG J K,UCHIDA E,et al.Pressure cookers or pressure valves:Do roads lead to deforestation in China[J].Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,2011(61):79-94.
[43]姚玲珍,刘霞.我国房产税改革试点的市场效应分析---基于上海房产税试点相关数据的实证研究[J].现代管理科学,2014(4):27-29.
[44]ROSENBAUM P R,RUBIN D B.The central role of the propensity score inobservational studies for causal effects[J].Biometrica,1983,701:41-55.
[45]陶攀.中国企业跨境并购的动因及影响研究[D].北京:对外经济贸易大学,2014.
[2]国家林业局.全国湿地保护十三五实施规划中国林业网[EB/OL].http://www.forestry.gov.cn/2017-04-20.
[3]辛利娟,朱彦鹏,陈冰,等.基于PSR模型的云南苍山保护区保护成效研究[J].生态经济,2015,31(12):125-128+141.
[4]NORTON T W.Conservation of biological diversity in temperate and boreal forest ecosystems[J].Forest E-cology&Management,1996,85(96):1-7.
[5]郑姚闽,张海英,牛振国,等.中国国家级湿地自然保护区保护成效初步评估[J].科学通报.2012,57(4):207-230.
[6]GASTON K J.Biodiversity and extinction:Species and people[J].Progress in Physical Geography,2005,29(2):239-247.
[7]白帆,桑卫国,刘瑞刚,等.保护区对生物多样性的长期保护效果:长白山自然保护区北坡森林植物多样性43年变化分析[J].中国科学(C辑:生命科学),2008(6):573-582.
[8]韩冰,欧阳志云,徐卫华,等.我国西南地区物种多样性保护效果[J].生态学报,2008(9):4589-4593.
[9]GELDMANN J,BARNES M,COAD L,et al.Effectiveness of terrestrial protected areas in reducing habitat loss and population declines[J].Biological Conservation,2013,161(3):230-238.
[10]REDDY C S,SREELEKSHMIS,JHA C S,et al.National assessment of forest fragmentation in India:Landscape indices as measures of the effects of fragmentation and forest cover change[J].Ecological Engineering,2013,60(6):453-464.
[11]GROSS D,DUBOIS G,PEKEL J F,et al.Monitoring land cover changes in African protected areas in the21st century[J].Ecological Informatics,2013,14(6):31-37.
[12]KLORVUTTIMONTARA S,MCCLEAN C J,HILL JK.Evaluating the effectiveness of protected areas for conserving tropical forest butterflies of Thailand[J].Biological Conservation,2011,144(10):2534-2540.
[13]KEVIN J G,SARAH F J,LISETTE C,et al.The ecological performance of protected areas[J].Annual Review of Ecology,Evolution,and Systematics,2008,39(39):93-113.
[14]GAVEAU D L A,EPTING J,LYNE O,et al.Evaluating whether protected areas reduce tropical deforestation in Sumatra.[J].Journal of Biogeography,2010,36(11):2165-2175.
[15]薛达元.生物多样性的经济价值评估长白山自然保护区案例研究[M].北京:中国环境科学出版社,1997.
[16]徐慧,蒋明康,钱谊,等.鹞落坪自然保护区非使用价值的评估[J].农村生态环境,2004(4):6-9+14.
[17]李长荣.武陵源自然保护区森林生态系统服务功能及价值评估[J].林业科学,2004(2):16-20.
[18]茹永强,哈登龙,熊林春,等.鸡公山自然保护区森林生态系统服务功能及其价值初步研究[J].河南农业大学学报,2004(2):199-202.
[19]马真臻,王忠静,顾艳玲,等.中国西北干旱区自然保护区生态脆弱性评价---以甘肃西湖、苏干湖自然保护区为例[J].中国沙漠,2015,35(1):253-259.
[20]麦少芝,徐颂军,潘颖君.PSR模型在湿地生态系统健康评价中的应用[J].热带地理,2005(4):317-321.
[21]刘子刚,赵金兰.湿地生态系统健康评价研究---以黑龙江省七星河国家级自然保护区为例[J].生态经济,2009(7):150-153.
[22]王治良,王国祥.洪泽湖湿地生态系统健康评价指标体系探讨[J].中国生态农业学报,2007(6):152-155.
[23]罗跃初,周忠轩,孙轶,等.流域生态系统健康评价方法[J].生态学报,2003(8):1606-1614.
[24]MAS J F.Assessing protected area effectiveness using surrounding(buffer)areas environmentally similar to the target area[J].Environmental Monitoring&Assessment,2005,105(1-3):69.
[25]JOPPA L,PFAFF A.Reassessing the forest impacts of protection:The challenge of nonrandom location and a corrective method[J].Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences,2010,1185(1):135.
[26]叶芳,王燕.双重差分模型介绍及其应用[J].中国卫生统计,2013,30(1):131-134.
[27]李楠,乔榛.国有企业改制政策效果的实证分析---基于双重差分模型的估计[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2010(2):3-21.
[28]周黎安,陈烨.中国农村税费改革的政策效果:基于双重差分模型的估计[J].经济研究,2005(8):44-53.
[29]YEH C Y,CHANG C H.Applying difference in difference method to value policy effect on hotel industry[J].Journal of Hotel&Business Management,2016,5:1.
[30]王广慧,张世伟.基于倾向分匹配法的农民工培训收入效应实证研究---以吉林省为例[J].统计与信息论坛,2009(9):81-85.
[31]童伟伟.中国制造业企业出口的技术创新效应---基于倾向得分匹配估计的实证研究[J].中国科技论坛,2013,7(7):18-23.
[32]吕朝凤,陈霄.地方官员会影响对外直接投资的区位选择吗---基于双重差分法的实证研究[J].国际贸易问题,2015(5):115-123.
[33]CAZZUFFI C,PEREIRA-LPEZ M,SOLOAGA I.Local poverty reduction in Chile and Mexico:The role of food manufacturing growth[J].Food Policy,2017,68:160-185.
[34]DJANKOV S,MURRELL P.Enterprise restructuring in transition:A quantitative survey[J].Journal of Economic Literature,2002,40(3):739-792.
[35]苑春永,陈福美,王耘,等.独生子女和非独生子女情绪适应的差异---基于倾向分数配对模型的估计[J].中国临床心理学杂志,2013,21(2):296-299.
[36]王广慧,张世伟.基于倾向分匹配法的农民工培训收入效应实证研究---以吉林省为例[J].统计与信息论坛,2009(9):81-85.
[37]吴盼盼.安徽省集体林权制度改革政策对森林资源影响的实证分析[J].劳动保障世界(理论版),2012(9):69-73.
[38]张墨,王璐,王军锋.基于双重差分倾向得分的排污权交易制度实施效果研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2017,31(11):26-32.
[39]刘金东,丁小平.我国劳动力市场收入歧视研究[J].华东经济管理,2012,26(11):56-59.
[40]NKALA P,MANGO N,ZIKHALI P.Conservation agriculture and livelihoods of smallholder farmers in central Mozambique[J].Journal of Sustainable Agriculture,2011,35(7):757-779.
[41]HONEY-ROSES J,BAYLIS K,ISABEL R M.A spatially explicit estimate of avoided forest loss[J].Conservation Biology,2011,25(5):1032-1043.
[42]DENG X Z,HUANG J K,UCHIDA E,et al.Pressure cookers or pressure valves:Do roads lead to deforestation in China[J].Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,2011(61):79-94.
[43]姚玲珍,刘霞.我国房产税改革试点的市场效应分析---基于上海房产税试点相关数据的实证研究[J].现代管理科学,2014(4):27-29.
[44]ROSENBAUM P R,RUBIN D B.The central role of the propensity score inobservational studies for causal effects[J].Biometrica,1983,701:41-55.
[45]陶攀.中国企业跨境并购的动因及影响研究[D].北京:对外经济贸易大学,2014.
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