基于MaxEnt模型的马可波罗盘羊生境适宜性评价
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摘要
马可波罗盘羊(Ovis ammon polii)是帕米尔高原的特有和旗舰物种,开展其生境适宜性评价是有效保护该物种的前提和基础。2017年5—11月,用样线法调查了新疆塔什库尔干野生动物自然保护区内马可波罗盘羊的地理分布现状,共确定马可波罗盘羊出现位点104个,结合27种环境变量数据,利用最大熵MaxEnt模型分析了该保护区内影响马可波罗盘羊分布的主要生境因子及其适宜生境分布特征。结果表明:MaxEnt模型的预测准确度较高(AUC值为0.955),可以用于该保护区马可波罗盘羊的生境适宜性评估。马可波罗盘羊有效适宜生境主要分布于该保护区西北部,面积为1288.53 km2,仅占整个保护区面积的8.12%。诸多因子中,海拔、温度季节性、植被类型、最湿季平均温、最冷月最低温和坡度是影响马可波罗盘羊生境最主要的环境变量,人为干扰以及土地利用对该保护区马可波罗盘羊适宜生境影响较小,马可波罗盘羊适宜的植被类型主要为荒漠和草原,适宜的海拔范围为3500～4800 m。对马可波罗盘羊种群的保护管理措施提出两点建议:控制人为干扰;识别和建立各适宜生境之间的迁徙廊道。
Marco Polo sheep( Ovis ammon polii) is an endemic species and also a flagship species of Pamir Plateau. Assessment of habitat suitability is the prerequisite and basis for the effective conservation of this species. From May to November 2017,104 occurrence points of Marco Polo sheep were confirmed by using the line transect method. Combining 27 kinds of environmental variable factors,the MaxEnt model was used to determine the main factors affecting the distribution of Marco Polo sheep,and to assess its potentially suitable habitat in Taxkorgan Wildlife Nature Reserve. The results showed that the AUC( area under ROC curve) value was 0. 955,suggesting perfect predictive effect of the model. Suitable habitat of Marco Polo sheep was mainly distributed in the northwest part of the reserve. The area of suitable habitat was around 1288.53km2,which only accounted for 8.12% of the total area. Altitude,temperature seasonality,vegetation type,mean temperature of wettest quarter,lowest temperature of coldest month,and slope were the most important environmental factors affecting the suitable habitat distribution of Marco Polo sheep,whereas human disturbance and land use had less influence. The suitable vegetation types of Marco Polo sheep were mainly desert and grassland,and the range of altitude was 3500-4800 m. We proposed two strategies on the conservation and management measures of Marco Polo sheep population: Controlling human disturbance and establishing a migration corridor among suitable habitats.
Marco Polo sheep( Ovis ammon polii) is an endemic species and also a flagship species of Pamir Plateau. Assessment of habitat suitability is the prerequisite and basis for the effective conservation of this species. From May to November 2017,104 occurrence points of Marco Polo sheep were confirmed by using the line transect method. Combining 27 kinds of environmental variable factors,the MaxEnt model was used to determine the main factors affecting the distribution of Marco Polo sheep,and to assess its potentially suitable habitat in Taxkorgan Wildlife Nature Reserve. The results showed that the AUC( area under ROC curve) value was 0. 955,suggesting perfect predictive effect of the model. Suitable habitat of Marco Polo sheep was mainly distributed in the northwest part of the reserve. The area of suitable habitat was around 1288.53km2,which only accounted for 8.12% of the total area. Altitude,temperature seasonality,vegetation type,mean temperature of wettest quarter,lowest temperature of coldest month,and slope were the most important environmental factors affecting the suitable habitat distribution of Marco Polo sheep,whereas human disturbance and land use had less influence. The suitable vegetation types of Marco Polo sheep were mainly desert and grassland,and the range of altitude was 3500-4800 m. We proposed two strategies on the conservation and management measures of Marco Polo sheep population: Controlling human disturbance and establishing a migration corridor among suitable habitats.
引文
阿布力米提·阿布都卡迪尔,戴志刚,史军,等.2010.新疆塔什库尔干高山-高原区盘羊和北山羊冬季资源调查报告.干旱区资源与环境,24(11):174-179.
高惠,滕丽微,汪洋,等.2017.阿拉善马鹿(Cervus alashanicus)生境适宜性评价.生态学报,37(11):3926-3931.
龚明昊,戴志刚,曾治高,等.2007.新疆塔什库尔干自然保护区马可波罗盘羊种群数量和栖息地初步调查.兽类学报,27(4):317-324.
郝雪娜,吴艳兰.2017.基于Maxent模型的越冬白头鹤适宜生境预测.安徽农业大学学报,44(4):591-597.
李叶,余玉群,史军,等.2013.天山盘羊夏季采食地和卧息地生境选择.生态学报,33(24):7644-7650.
李国庆,刘长成,刘玉国,等.2013.物种分布模型理论研究进展.生态学报,33(16):4827-4835.
梁果栋.1984.塔什库尔干野生动物保护区成立.新疆林业,(5):26.
刘楚光,余玉群,初红军,等.2007.马可·波罗羊(Ovis ammon polii)在中国境内的分布与现状.陕西师范大学学报:自然科学版,25(S1):155-160.
刘纪远.1996.中国资源环境遥感宏观调查与动态研究.北京:中国科学技术出版社.
罗翀,徐卫华,周志翔,等.2011.基于生态位模型的秦岭山系林麝生境预测.生态学报,31(5):1221-1229.
罗玫,王昊,吕植.2017.使用大熊猫数据评估Biomod2和MaxEnt分布预测模型的表现.应用生态学报,28(12):4001-4006.
罗宁,谷景和,艾热提,等.1998.新疆盘羊种群结构与资源现状.自然资源学报,13(1):46-51.
宓春荣,郭玉民,Huettmann Falk,等.2017.基于物种分布模型的精确采样提高目标物种发现率---以黑颈鹤(Grus nigricollis),白头鹤(Grus monacha)为例.生态学报,37(3):4476-4482.
史培军,陈晋,潘耀忠.2000.深圳市土地利用变化机制分析.地理学报,55(2):151-160.
苏旭坤,董世魁,刘世梁,等.2014.阿尔金山自然保护区土地利用/覆被变化对藏野驴栖息地的影响.生态学杂志,33(1):141-148.
汪松.1998.中国濒危动物红皮书.北京:科学出版社.
王茹琳,李庆,封传红,等.2017.基于MaxEnt的西藏飞蝗在中国的适生区预测.生态学报,37(24):8556-8566.
王玉涛,戴志刚,杨世杰,等.2016a.东帕米尔高原盘羊分布与栖息地植被覆盖时空变化.生态学报,36(1):209-217.
王玉涛,张旭,戴志刚,等.2016b.雄性马可·波罗盘羊与家绵羊头骨形态特征比较.中国兽医学报,36(12):2119-2125.
吴文,李月辉,胡远满,等.2016.小兴安岭南麓马鹿冬季适宜生境评价.生物多样性,24(1):20-29.
吴庆明,王磊,朱瑞萍,等.2016.基于MAXENT模型的丹顶鹤营巢生境适宜性分析---以扎龙保护区为例.生态学报,36(12):3758-3764.
杨淑萍,阎平,陆嘉惠.2008.中国帕米尔高原种子植物属的区系研究.干旱区资源与环境,22(5):139-143.
余玉群,姬明周,刘楚光,等.2008.中国盘羊的地理分布和历史变迁.生物多样性,16(2):197-204.
余玉群,史军,刘楚光,等.1999.新疆盘羊(Ovis ammon)的地理分布特征.生物多样性,7(4):270-276.
张慧,高吉喜,马孟枭,等.2017.基于MaxEnt模型的道路对朱鹮繁殖地的影响.应用生态学报,28(4):1352-1359.
张雷.2008.2007年新疆十大天气气候事件.[2018-03-10].http://minzu.cnr.cn/mzdt1/200801/t20080109_504674831.html.
赵疆宁,高行宜,周永恒.1991.中国盘羊的分布.八一农学院学报,14(3):63-67.
周海涛,那晓东,臧淑英,等.2016.最大熵(MaxEnt)模型在物种栖息地研究中的应用.环境科学与管理,41(3):149-151.
诸葛海锦,李晓文,张翔,等.2014.青藏高原高寒荒漠区藏羚适宜生境识别及其保护状况评估.应用生态学报,25(12):3483-3490.
Araújo MB,Pearson RG,Thuiller W,et al.2005.Validation of species-climate impact models under climate change.Global Change Biology,11:1504-1513.
Behdarvand N,Kaboli M,Ahmadi M,et al.2014.Spatial risk model and mitigation implications for wolf:Human conflict in a highly modified agroecosystem in western Iran.Biological Conservation,177:156-164.
Guisan A,Tingley R,Baumgartner JB,et al.2013.Predicting species distributions for conservation decisions.Ecology Letters,16:1424-1435.
Hanley JA,McNeil BJ.1982.The meaning and use of the area under a receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve.Radiology,143:29-36.
Jiménez-Valverde A,Lobo J.2007.Threshold criteria for conversion of probability of species presence to either-or presence-absence.Acta Oecologica,31:361-369.
Kuemmerle T,Perzanowski K,Chaskovskyy O,et al.2010.European bison habitat in the Carpathian Mountains.Biological Conservation,143:908-916.
Namgail T,Fox JL,Bhatnagar YV.2004.Habitat segregation between sympatric Tibetan argali Ovis ammon hodgsoni and blue sheep Pseudois nayaur in the Indian Trans-Himalaya.Journal of Zoology,262:57-63.
Phillips S,Dudík M.2008.Modeling of species distributions with Maxent:New extensions and a comprehensive evaluation.Ecography,31:161-175.
Salas E,Raul V,Stefan M.2017.Summer and winter habitat suitability of Marco Polo argali in southeastern Tajikistan:A modeling approach.Heliyon,3:e00445.
Schaller G,Kang A.2008.Status of Marco Polo sheep Ovis ammon polii in China and adjacent countries:Conservation of a vulnerable subspecies.Oryx,42:100-106.
Schaller G,Hong L,Talipu,et al.1987.Status of large mammals in the Taxkorgan Reserve,Xinjiang,China.Biological Conservation,42:53-71.
Schaller G.1977.Mountain Monarchs:Wild Sheep and Goats of the Himalaya.Chicago:University of Chicago Press.
Urbani F,D’Alessandro P,Frasca R,et al.2015.Maximum entropy modeling of geographic distributions of the flea beetle species endemic in Italy(Coleoptera:Chrysomelidae:Galerucinae:Alticini).Zoologischer Anzeiger,258:99-109.
Valdez R,Michel S,Subbotin A,et al.2016.Status and population structure of a hunted population of Marco Polo Argali Ovis ammon polii(Cetartiodactyla,Bovidae)in Southeastern Tajikistan.Mammalia,80:49-57.
Yang Y,Wang Y,Zhao Y,et al.2017.Draft genome of the Marco Polo Sheep(Ovis ammon polii).Gigascience,6:1-7.
高惠,滕丽微,汪洋,等.2017.阿拉善马鹿(Cervus alashanicus)生境适宜性评价.生态学报,37(11):3926-3931.
龚明昊,戴志刚,曾治高,等.2007.新疆塔什库尔干自然保护区马可波罗盘羊种群数量和栖息地初步调查.兽类学报,27(4):317-324.
郝雪娜,吴艳兰.2017.基于Maxent模型的越冬白头鹤适宜生境预测.安徽农业大学学报,44(4):591-597.
李叶,余玉群,史军,等.2013.天山盘羊夏季采食地和卧息地生境选择.生态学报,33(24):7644-7650.
李国庆,刘长成,刘玉国,等.2013.物种分布模型理论研究进展.生态学报,33(16):4827-4835.
梁果栋.1984.塔什库尔干野生动物保护区成立.新疆林业,(5):26.
刘楚光,余玉群,初红军,等.2007.马可·波罗羊(Ovis ammon polii)在中国境内的分布与现状.陕西师范大学学报:自然科学版,25(S1):155-160.
刘纪远.1996.中国资源环境遥感宏观调查与动态研究.北京:中国科学技术出版社.
罗翀,徐卫华,周志翔,等.2011.基于生态位模型的秦岭山系林麝生境预测.生态学报,31(5):1221-1229.
罗玫,王昊,吕植.2017.使用大熊猫数据评估Biomod2和MaxEnt分布预测模型的表现.应用生态学报,28(12):4001-4006.
罗宁,谷景和,艾热提,等.1998.新疆盘羊种群结构与资源现状.自然资源学报,13(1):46-51.
宓春荣,郭玉民,Huettmann Falk,等.2017.基于物种分布模型的精确采样提高目标物种发现率---以黑颈鹤(Grus nigricollis),白头鹤(Grus monacha)为例.生态学报,37(3):4476-4482.
史培军,陈晋,潘耀忠.2000.深圳市土地利用变化机制分析.地理学报,55(2):151-160.
苏旭坤,董世魁,刘世梁,等.2014.阿尔金山自然保护区土地利用/覆被变化对藏野驴栖息地的影响.生态学杂志,33(1):141-148.
汪松.1998.中国濒危动物红皮书.北京:科学出版社.
王茹琳,李庆,封传红,等.2017.基于MaxEnt的西藏飞蝗在中国的适生区预测.生态学报,37(24):8556-8566.
王玉涛,戴志刚,杨世杰,等.2016a.东帕米尔高原盘羊分布与栖息地植被覆盖时空变化.生态学报,36(1):209-217.
王玉涛,张旭,戴志刚,等.2016b.雄性马可·波罗盘羊与家绵羊头骨形态特征比较.中国兽医学报,36(12):2119-2125.
吴文,李月辉,胡远满,等.2016.小兴安岭南麓马鹿冬季适宜生境评价.生物多样性,24(1):20-29.
吴庆明,王磊,朱瑞萍,等.2016.基于MAXENT模型的丹顶鹤营巢生境适宜性分析---以扎龙保护区为例.生态学报,36(12):3758-3764.
杨淑萍,阎平,陆嘉惠.2008.中国帕米尔高原种子植物属的区系研究.干旱区资源与环境,22(5):139-143.
余玉群,姬明周,刘楚光,等.2008.中国盘羊的地理分布和历史变迁.生物多样性,16(2):197-204.
余玉群,史军,刘楚光,等.1999.新疆盘羊(Ovis ammon)的地理分布特征.生物多样性,7(4):270-276.
张慧,高吉喜,马孟枭,等.2017.基于MaxEnt模型的道路对朱鹮繁殖地的影响.应用生态学报,28(4):1352-1359.
张雷.2008.2007年新疆十大天气气候事件.[2018-03-10].http://minzu.cnr.cn/mzdt1/200801/t20080109_504674831.html.
赵疆宁,高行宜,周永恒.1991.中国盘羊的分布.八一农学院学报,14(3):63-67.
周海涛,那晓东,臧淑英,等.2016.最大熵(MaxEnt)模型在物种栖息地研究中的应用.环境科学与管理,41(3):149-151.
诸葛海锦,李晓文,张翔,等.2014.青藏高原高寒荒漠区藏羚适宜生境识别及其保护状况评估.应用生态学报,25(12):3483-3490.
Araújo MB,Pearson RG,Thuiller W,et al.2005.Validation of species-climate impact models under climate change.Global Change Biology,11:1504-1513.
Behdarvand N,Kaboli M,Ahmadi M,et al.2014.Spatial risk model and mitigation implications for wolf:Human conflict in a highly modified agroecosystem in western Iran.Biological Conservation,177:156-164.
Guisan A,Tingley R,Baumgartner JB,et al.2013.Predicting species distributions for conservation decisions.Ecology Letters,16:1424-1435.
Hanley JA,McNeil BJ.1982.The meaning and use of the area under a receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve.Radiology,143:29-36.
Jiménez-Valverde A,Lobo J.2007.Threshold criteria for conversion of probability of species presence to either-or presence-absence.Acta Oecologica,31:361-369.
Kuemmerle T,Perzanowski K,Chaskovskyy O,et al.2010.European bison habitat in the Carpathian Mountains.Biological Conservation,143:908-916.
Namgail T,Fox JL,Bhatnagar YV.2004.Habitat segregation between sympatric Tibetan argali Ovis ammon hodgsoni and blue sheep Pseudois nayaur in the Indian Trans-Himalaya.Journal of Zoology,262:57-63.
Phillips S,Dudík M.2008.Modeling of species distributions with Maxent:New extensions and a comprehensive evaluation.Ecography,31:161-175.
Salas E,Raul V,Stefan M.2017.Summer and winter habitat suitability of Marco Polo argali in southeastern Tajikistan:A modeling approach.Heliyon,3:e00445.
Schaller G,Kang A.2008.Status of Marco Polo sheep Ovis ammon polii in China and adjacent countries:Conservation of a vulnerable subspecies.Oryx,42:100-106.
Schaller G,Hong L,Talipu,et al.1987.Status of large mammals in the Taxkorgan Reserve,Xinjiang,China.Biological Conservation,42:53-71.
Schaller G.1977.Mountain Monarchs:Wild Sheep and Goats of the Himalaya.Chicago:University of Chicago Press.
Urbani F,D’Alessandro P,Frasca R,et al.2015.Maximum entropy modeling of geographic distributions of the flea beetle species endemic in Italy(Coleoptera:Chrysomelidae:Galerucinae:Alticini).Zoologischer Anzeiger,258:99-109.
Valdez R,Michel S,Subbotin A,et al.2016.Status and population structure of a hunted population of Marco Polo Argali Ovis ammon polii(Cetartiodactyla,Bovidae)in Southeastern Tajikistan.Mammalia,80:49-57.
Yang Y,Wang Y,Zhao Y,et al.2017.Draft genome of the Marco Polo Sheep(Ovis ammon polii).Gigascience,6:1-7.
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