摘要
为评估水下采油树系统的可靠性,提出一种基于Markov的水下采油树系统可靠性评估方法。首先,通过研究水下采油树系统的运行状态和故障机制,建立了水下采油树系统的Markov模型并给出相应的解析方程式。其次,以实际水下采油树系统故障数据为基础数据对其可靠性进行了定量分析和计算,求解水下采油树系统的瞬态、稳态可用度区间值;最后,利用该模型进一步分析各状态转移概率对系统可用度的影响,从而为预防故障事件的发生及系统改进措施的提出提供一定的理论依据,并为水下采油树系统国产化设计以及生产工作等提供较为准确的可靠性约束指导。
To evaluate the reliability of subsea X-tree system,a reliability evaluation method for the subsea X-max tree system based on Markov process is proposed.Firstly,the Markov model was established by studying the operation condition and fault mechanism of the subsea X-max tree system and the analytic equation of the model was given.Then,based on the fault data of actual X-max tree systems,their reliability was analyzed and calculated quantitatively,and the transient-state and steady-state availability of the subsea X-max tree systems was obtained.Finally,the effect of state transition probability in the model on the availability of the system were studied,so as to provide a theoretical basis for preventing the occurrence of failure events and proposing measures for the improvement of subsea X-max tree systems,and to provide more accurate reliability constraint guidance for the localization design and production of subsea X-max tree system.
引文
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