Atmospheric Warming Slowdown during 1998-2013 Associated with Increasing Ocean Heat Content
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摘要
Although atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations continuously increased, there was relatively little change in global-averaged surface temperatures from 1998 to 2013, which is known as atmospheric warming slowdown. For further understanding the mechanism involved, we explored the energy redistribution between the atmosphere and ocean in different latitudes and depths by using data analysis as well as simulations of a coupled atmosphere–ocean box model. The results revealed that, compared with observational changes of ocean heat content (OHC) associated with rapid warming, the OHC changes related to warming slowdown are relatively larger in multiple ocean basins, particularly in the deeper layer of the Atlantic. The coupled box model also showed that there is a larger increasing trend of OHC under the warming slowdown scenario than the rapid warming scenario. Particularly, during the warming slowdown period, the heat storage in the deeper ocean increases faster than the ocean heat uptake in the surface ocean. The simulations indicated that the warming patterns under the two scenarios are accompanied by distinct outgoing longwave radiation and atmospheric meridional heat transport, as well as other related processes, thus leading to different characteristics of ocean heat uptake.Due to the global energy balance, we suggest this slowdown has a tight relationship with the accelerated heat transport into the global ocean.
Although atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations continuously increased, there was relatively little change in global-averaged surface temperatures from 1998 to 2013, which is known as atmospheric warming slowdown. For further understanding the mechanism involved, we explored the energy redistribution between the atmosphere and ocean in different latitudes and depths by using data analysis as well as simulations of a coupled atmosphere–ocean box model. The results revealed that, compared with observational changes of ocean heat content (OHC) associated with rapid warming, the OHC changes related to warming slowdown are relatively larger in multiple ocean basins, particularly in the deeper layer of the Atlantic. The coupled box model also showed that there is a larger increasing trend of OHC under the warming slowdown scenario than the rapid warming scenario. Particularly, during the warming slowdown period, the heat storage in the deeper ocean increases faster than the ocean heat uptake in the surface ocean. The simulations indicated that the warming patterns under the two scenarios are accompanied by distinct outgoing longwave radiation and atmospheric meridional heat transport, as well as other related processes, thus leading to different characteristics of ocean heat uptake.Due to the global energy balance, we suggest this slowdown has a tight relationship with the accelerated heat transport into the global ocean.
Although atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations continuously increased, there was relatively little change in global-averaged surface temperatures from 1998 to 2013, which is known as atmospheric warming slowdown. For further understanding the mechanism involved, we explored the energy redistribution between the atmosphere and ocean in different latitudes and depths by using data analysis as well as simulations of a coupled atmosphere–ocean box model. The results revealed that, compared with observational changes of ocean heat content (OHC) associated with rapid warming, the OHC changes related to warming slowdown are relatively larger in multiple ocean basins, particularly in the deeper layer of the Atlantic. The coupled box model also showed that there is a larger increasing trend of OHC under the warming slowdown scenario than the rapid warming scenario. Particularly, during the warming slowdown period, the heat storage in the deeper ocean increases faster than the ocean heat uptake in the surface ocean. The simulations indicated that the warming patterns under the two scenarios are accompanied by distinct outgoing longwave radiation and atmospheric meridional heat transport, as well as other related processes, thus leading to different characteristics of ocean heat uptake.Due to the global energy balance, we suggest this slowdown has a tight relationship with the accelerated heat transport into the global ocean.
引文
Balmaseda,M.A.,K.Mogensen,and A.T.Weaver,2013:Evaluation of the ECMWF ocean reanalysis system ORAS4.Quart.J.Roy.Meteor.Soc.,139(674),1132-1161,https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2063.
Chen,X.Y.,and K.K.Tung,2014:Varying planetary heat sink led to global-warming slowdown and acceleration.Science,345(6199),897-903,https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1254937.
Chen,X.Y.,and K.K.Tung,2018:Global surface warming enhanced by weak Atlantic overturning circulation.Nature,559(7714),387-391,https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0320-y.
Cheng,L.J.,G.J.Wang,J.P.Abraham,and G.Huang,2018:Decadal ocean heat redistribution since the late 1990s and its association with key climate modes.Climate,6,91,https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6040091.
Cheng,L.J.,K.E.Trenberth,M.D.Palmer,J.Zhu,and J.P.Abraham,2016:Observed and simulated full-depth ocean heat-content changes for 1970-2005.Ocean Science,12,925-935,https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-925-2016.
Cheng,L.J.,K.E.Trenberth,J.Fasullo,T.Boyer,J.Abraham,and J.Zhu,2017:Improved estimates of ocean heat content from 1960 to 2015.Science Advances,3,e1601545,https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1601545.
Chylek,P.,J.D.Klett,G.Lesins,M.K.Dubey,and N.Hengartner,2014:The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation as a dominant factor of oceanic influence on climate.Geophys.Res.Lett.,41(5),1689-1697,https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL059274.
Dai,A.G.,J.C.Fyfe,S.P.Xie,and X.G.Dai,2015:Decadal modulation of global surface temperature by internal climate variability.Nature Climate Change,5(6),555-559,https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2605.
Danny Harvey,L.D.,and S.H.Schneider,1985:Transient climate response to external forcing on 100-104 year time scales Part 1:Experiments with globally averaged,coupled,atmosphere and ocean energy balance models.J.Geophys.Res.,90(D1),2191-2205,https://doi.org/10.1029/JD090i D01p02191.
Dee,D.P.,and Coauthors,2011:The ERA-interim reanalysis:Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system.Quart.J.Roy.Meteor.Soc.,137(656),553-597,https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828.
Easterling,D.R.,and M.F.Wehner,2009:Is the climate warming or cooling?Geophys.Res.Lett.,36(8),L08706,https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL037810.
England,M.H.,and Coauthors,2014:Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus.Nature Climate Change,4(3),222-227,https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2106.
Foster,G.,and S.Rahmstorf,2011:Global temperature evolution 1979-2010.Environmental Research Letters,6(4),044022,https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/044022.
Guan,X.D.,J.P.Huang,R.X.Guo,and P.Lin,2015:The role of dynamically induced variability in the recent warming trend slowdown over the Northern Hemisphere.Scientific Reports,5,12669,https://doi.org/10.1038/srep12669.
Hansen,J.,R.Ruedy,M.Sato,and K.Lo,2010:Global surface temperature change.Rev.Geophys.,48(4),RG4004,https://doi.org/10.1029/2010RG000345.
He,Y.L.,J.P.Huang,D.D.Li,Y.K.Xie,G.L.Zhang,Y.L.Qi,S.S.Wang,and S.Totz,2018:Comparison of the effect of land-sea thermal contrast on interdecadal variations in winter and summer blockings.Climate Dyn.,51,1275-1294,https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3954-9.
Huang,J.P.,Y.K.Xie,X.D.Guan,D.D.Li,and F.Ji,2017:The dynamics of the warming hiatus over the northern hemisphere.Climate Dyn.,48,429-446,https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3085-8.
IPCC,2013:Summary for policymakers.Climate Change 2013:The Physical Science Basis.Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.T.F.Stocker et al.,Eds.,Cambridge University Press,3-29.
Ji,F.,Z.H.Wu,J.P.Huang,and E.P.Chassignet,2014:Evolution of land surface air temperature trend.Nature Climate Change,4(6),462-466,https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2223.
Josey,S.A.,2011:Air-sea fluxes of heat,freshwater and momentum.Operational Oceanography in the 21st Century,A.Schiller and G.B.Brassington,Eds.,Springer,155-170,https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-0332-2_6.
Kim,K.Y.,G.R.North,and J.P.Huang,1992:On the transient response of a simple coupled climate system.J.Geophys.Res.,97(D9),10 069-10 081,https://doi.org/10.1029/92JD00581.
Kosaka,Y.,and S.P.Xie,2013:Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial pacific surface cooling.Nature,501(7467),403-407,https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12534.
Krasovskiy,Y.P.,and P.H.Stone,1998:Destabilization of the thermohaline circulation by atmospheric transports:An analytic solution.J.Climate,11(7),1803-1811,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<1803:DOTTCB>2.0.CO;2.
Lee,S.K.,W.Park,E.van Sebille,M.O.Baringer,C.Z.Wang,D.B.Enfield,S.G.Yeager,and B.P.Kirtman,2011:What caused the significant increase in Atlantic ocean heat content since the mid-20th century?Geophys.Res.Lett.,38(17),L17607,https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL048856.
Lee,S.K.,W.Park,M.O.Baringer,A.L.Gordon,B.Huber,and Y.Y.Liu,2015:Pacific origin of the abrupt increase in Indian Ocean heat content during the warming hiatus.Nature Geoscience,8(6),445-449,https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2438.
Li,Y.L.,W.Q.Han,and L.Zhang,2017:Enhanced decadal warming of the Southeast Indian Ocean during the recent global surface warming slowdown.Geophys.Res.Lett.,44,9876-9884,https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075050.
Liu,B.,and T.J.Zhou,2017:Atmospheric footprint of the recent warming slowdown.Scientific Reports,7,40947,https://doi.org/10.1038/srep40947.
Marotzke,J.,and P.H.Stone,1995:Atmospheric transports,the thermohaline circulation,and flux adjustments in a simple coupled model.J.Phys.Oceanogr.,25(6),1350-1364,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1995)025<1350:AT-TTCA>2.0.CO;2.
Meehl,G.A.,J.M.Arblaster,J.T.Fasullo,A.X.Hu,and K.E.Trenberth,2011:Model-based evidence of deep-ocean heat uptake during surface-temperature hiatus periods.Nature Climate Change,1(7),360-364,https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1229.
Morantine,M.,and R.G.Watts,1990:Upwelling diffusion climate models:Analytical solutions for radiative and upwelling forcing.J.Geophys.Res.,95(D6),7563-7571,https://doi.org/10.1029/JD095iD06p07563.
Morice,C.P.,J.J.Kennedy,N.A.Rayner,and P.D.Jones,2012:Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates:The HadCRUT4 data set.J.Geophys.Res.,117(D8),D08101,https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD017187.
Nakamura,M.,P.H.Stone,and J.Marotzke,1994:Destabilization of the thermohaline circulation by atmospheric eddy transports.J.Climate,7(12),1870-1882,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1994)007<1870:DOTTCB>2.0.CO;2.
Otter?,O.H.,M.Bentsen,H.Drange,and L.L.Suo,2010:External forcing as a metronome for Atlantic multidecadal variability.Nature Geoscience,3(10),688-694,https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo955.
Palmer,M.D.,and Coauthors,2017:Ocean heat content variability and change in an ensemble of ocean reanalyses.Climate Dyn.,49,909-930,https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2801-0.
Rahmstorf,S.,2002:Ocean circulation and climate during the past 120:000 years.Nature,419(6903),207-214,https://doi.org/10.1038/nature01090.
Schneider,S.H.,and S.L.Thompson,1981:Atmospheric CO2and climate:Importance of the transient response.J.Geophys.Res.,86(C4),3135-3147,https://doi.org/10.1029/JC086iC04p03135.
Steinman,B.A.,M.E.Mann,and S.K.Miller,2015:Atlantic and pacific multidecadal oscillations and northern Hemisphere temperatures.Science,347(6225),988-991,https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1257856.
Trenberth,K.E.,and D.J.Shea,2006:Atlantic hurricanes and natural variability in 2005.Geophys.Res.Lett.,33,L12704,https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026894.
Trenberth,K.E.,and J.Fasullo,2014b:Earth's energy imbalance.J.Climate,27(9),3129-3144,https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00294.1.
Trenberth,K.E.,J.T.Fasullo,G.Branstator,and A.S.Phillips,2014a:Seasonal aspects of the recent pause in surface warming.Nature Climate Change,4(10),911-916,https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2341.
von Schuckmann,K.,and Coauthors,2016:An imperative to monitor earth's energy imbalance.Nature Climate Change,6(2),138-144,https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2876.
Wang,G.J.,L.J.Cheng,J.Abraham,and C.Y.Li,2018:Consensuses and discrepancies of basin-scale ocean heat content changes in different ocean analyses.Climate Dyn.,50,2471-2487,https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3751-5.
Warren,S.G.,and S.H.Schneider,1979:Seasonal simulation as a test for uncertainties in the parameterizations of a BudykoSellers zonal climate model.J.Atmos.Sci.,36(8),1377-1391,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1979)036<1377:SSAATF>2.0.CO;2.
Wu,Z.H.,and N.E.Huang,2009:Ensemble empirical mode decomposition:A noise-assisted data analysis method.Advances in Adaptive Data Analysis,1,1-41,https://doi.org/10.1142/S1793536909000047.
Wu,Z.H.,N.E.Huang,J.M.Wallace,B.V.Smoliak,and X.Y.Chen,2011:On the time-varying trend in global-mean surface temperature.Climate Dyn.,37,759-773,https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1128-8.
WMO,2014:WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin:The State of Greenhouse Gases in the Atmosphere Based on Global Observations through 2013.https://library.wmo.int/pmb_ged/ghgbulletin_10-climate-summit-edition_en.pdf
Wyatt,M.G.,S.Kravtsov,and A.A.Tsonis,2012:Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and northern hemisphere’s climate variability.Climate Dyn.,38,929-949,https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1071-8.
Yang,H.J.,Y.Y.Zhao,Z.Y.Liu,Q.Li,F.He,and Q.Zhang,2015:Heat transport compensation in atmosphere and ocean over the past 22,000 years.Scientific Reports,5,16661,https://doi.org/10.1038/srep16661.
Yang,H.J.,Y.Y.Zhao,and Z.Y.Liu,2016:Understanding bjerknes compensation in atmosphere and ocean heat transports using a coupled box model.J.Climate,29,2145-2160,https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0281.1.
Yao,S.L.,J.J.Luo,G.Huang,and P.F.Wang,2017:Distinct global warming rates tied to multiple ocean surface temperature changes.Nature Climate Change,7(7),486-491,https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3304.
Chen,X.Y.,and K.K.Tung,2014:Varying planetary heat sink led to global-warming slowdown and acceleration.Science,345(6199),897-903,https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1254937.
Chen,X.Y.,and K.K.Tung,2018:Global surface warming enhanced by weak Atlantic overturning circulation.Nature,559(7714),387-391,https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0320-y.
Cheng,L.J.,G.J.Wang,J.P.Abraham,and G.Huang,2018:Decadal ocean heat redistribution since the late 1990s and its association with key climate modes.Climate,6,91,https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6040091.
Cheng,L.J.,K.E.Trenberth,M.D.Palmer,J.Zhu,and J.P.Abraham,2016:Observed and simulated full-depth ocean heat-content changes for 1970-2005.Ocean Science,12,925-935,https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-925-2016.
Cheng,L.J.,K.E.Trenberth,J.Fasullo,T.Boyer,J.Abraham,and J.Zhu,2017:Improved estimates of ocean heat content from 1960 to 2015.Science Advances,3,e1601545,https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1601545.
Chylek,P.,J.D.Klett,G.Lesins,M.K.Dubey,and N.Hengartner,2014:The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation as a dominant factor of oceanic influence on climate.Geophys.Res.Lett.,41(5),1689-1697,https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL059274.
Dai,A.G.,J.C.Fyfe,S.P.Xie,and X.G.Dai,2015:Decadal modulation of global surface temperature by internal climate variability.Nature Climate Change,5(6),555-559,https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2605.
Danny Harvey,L.D.,and S.H.Schneider,1985:Transient climate response to external forcing on 100-104 year time scales Part 1:Experiments with globally averaged,coupled,atmosphere and ocean energy balance models.J.Geophys.Res.,90(D1),2191-2205,https://doi.org/10.1029/JD090i D01p02191.
Dee,D.P.,and Coauthors,2011:The ERA-interim reanalysis:Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system.Quart.J.Roy.Meteor.Soc.,137(656),553-597,https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828.
Easterling,D.R.,and M.F.Wehner,2009:Is the climate warming or cooling?Geophys.Res.Lett.,36(8),L08706,https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL037810.
England,M.H.,and Coauthors,2014:Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus.Nature Climate Change,4(3),222-227,https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2106.
Foster,G.,and S.Rahmstorf,2011:Global temperature evolution 1979-2010.Environmental Research Letters,6(4),044022,https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/044022.
Guan,X.D.,J.P.Huang,R.X.Guo,and P.Lin,2015:The role of dynamically induced variability in the recent warming trend slowdown over the Northern Hemisphere.Scientific Reports,5,12669,https://doi.org/10.1038/srep12669.
Hansen,J.,R.Ruedy,M.Sato,and K.Lo,2010:Global surface temperature change.Rev.Geophys.,48(4),RG4004,https://doi.org/10.1029/2010RG000345.
He,Y.L.,J.P.Huang,D.D.Li,Y.K.Xie,G.L.Zhang,Y.L.Qi,S.S.Wang,and S.Totz,2018:Comparison of the effect of land-sea thermal contrast on interdecadal variations in winter and summer blockings.Climate Dyn.,51,1275-1294,https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3954-9.
Huang,J.P.,Y.K.Xie,X.D.Guan,D.D.Li,and F.Ji,2017:The dynamics of the warming hiatus over the northern hemisphere.Climate Dyn.,48,429-446,https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3085-8.
IPCC,2013:Summary for policymakers.Climate Change 2013:The Physical Science Basis.Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.T.F.Stocker et al.,Eds.,Cambridge University Press,3-29.
Ji,F.,Z.H.Wu,J.P.Huang,and E.P.Chassignet,2014:Evolution of land surface air temperature trend.Nature Climate Change,4(6),462-466,https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2223.
Josey,S.A.,2011:Air-sea fluxes of heat,freshwater and momentum.Operational Oceanography in the 21st Century,A.Schiller and G.B.Brassington,Eds.,Springer,155-170,https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-0332-2_6.
Kim,K.Y.,G.R.North,and J.P.Huang,1992:On the transient response of a simple coupled climate system.J.Geophys.Res.,97(D9),10 069-10 081,https://doi.org/10.1029/92JD00581.
Kosaka,Y.,and S.P.Xie,2013:Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial pacific surface cooling.Nature,501(7467),403-407,https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12534.
Krasovskiy,Y.P.,and P.H.Stone,1998:Destabilization of the thermohaline circulation by atmospheric transports:An analytic solution.J.Climate,11(7),1803-1811,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<1803:DOTTCB>2.0.CO;2.
Lee,S.K.,W.Park,E.van Sebille,M.O.Baringer,C.Z.Wang,D.B.Enfield,S.G.Yeager,and B.P.Kirtman,2011:What caused the significant increase in Atlantic ocean heat content since the mid-20th century?Geophys.Res.Lett.,38(17),L17607,https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL048856.
Lee,S.K.,W.Park,M.O.Baringer,A.L.Gordon,B.Huber,and Y.Y.Liu,2015:Pacific origin of the abrupt increase in Indian Ocean heat content during the warming hiatus.Nature Geoscience,8(6),445-449,https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2438.
Li,Y.L.,W.Q.Han,and L.Zhang,2017:Enhanced decadal warming of the Southeast Indian Ocean during the recent global surface warming slowdown.Geophys.Res.Lett.,44,9876-9884,https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075050.
Liu,B.,and T.J.Zhou,2017:Atmospheric footprint of the recent warming slowdown.Scientific Reports,7,40947,https://doi.org/10.1038/srep40947.
Marotzke,J.,and P.H.Stone,1995:Atmospheric transports,the thermohaline circulation,and flux adjustments in a simple coupled model.J.Phys.Oceanogr.,25(6),1350-1364,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1995)025<1350:AT-TTCA>2.0.CO;2.
Meehl,G.A.,J.M.Arblaster,J.T.Fasullo,A.X.Hu,and K.E.Trenberth,2011:Model-based evidence of deep-ocean heat uptake during surface-temperature hiatus periods.Nature Climate Change,1(7),360-364,https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1229.
Morantine,M.,and R.G.Watts,1990:Upwelling diffusion climate models:Analytical solutions for radiative and upwelling forcing.J.Geophys.Res.,95(D6),7563-7571,https://doi.org/10.1029/JD095iD06p07563.
Morice,C.P.,J.J.Kennedy,N.A.Rayner,and P.D.Jones,2012:Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates:The HadCRUT4 data set.J.Geophys.Res.,117(D8),D08101,https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD017187.
Nakamura,M.,P.H.Stone,and J.Marotzke,1994:Destabilization of the thermohaline circulation by atmospheric eddy transports.J.Climate,7(12),1870-1882,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1994)007<1870:DOTTCB>2.0.CO;2.
Otter?,O.H.,M.Bentsen,H.Drange,and L.L.Suo,2010:External forcing as a metronome for Atlantic multidecadal variability.Nature Geoscience,3(10),688-694,https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo955.
Palmer,M.D.,and Coauthors,2017:Ocean heat content variability and change in an ensemble of ocean reanalyses.Climate Dyn.,49,909-930,https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2801-0.
Rahmstorf,S.,2002:Ocean circulation and climate during the past 120:000 years.Nature,419(6903),207-214,https://doi.org/10.1038/nature01090.
Schneider,S.H.,and S.L.Thompson,1981:Atmospheric CO2and climate:Importance of the transient response.J.Geophys.Res.,86(C4),3135-3147,https://doi.org/10.1029/JC086iC04p03135.
Steinman,B.A.,M.E.Mann,and S.K.Miller,2015:Atlantic and pacific multidecadal oscillations and northern Hemisphere temperatures.Science,347(6225),988-991,https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1257856.
Trenberth,K.E.,and D.J.Shea,2006:Atlantic hurricanes and natural variability in 2005.Geophys.Res.Lett.,33,L12704,https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026894.
Trenberth,K.E.,and J.Fasullo,2014b:Earth's energy imbalance.J.Climate,27(9),3129-3144,https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00294.1.
Trenberth,K.E.,J.T.Fasullo,G.Branstator,and A.S.Phillips,2014a:Seasonal aspects of the recent pause in surface warming.Nature Climate Change,4(10),911-916,https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2341.
von Schuckmann,K.,and Coauthors,2016:An imperative to monitor earth's energy imbalance.Nature Climate Change,6(2),138-144,https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2876.
Wang,G.J.,L.J.Cheng,J.Abraham,and C.Y.Li,2018:Consensuses and discrepancies of basin-scale ocean heat content changes in different ocean analyses.Climate Dyn.,50,2471-2487,https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3751-5.
Warren,S.G.,and S.H.Schneider,1979:Seasonal simulation as a test for uncertainties in the parameterizations of a BudykoSellers zonal climate model.J.Atmos.Sci.,36(8),1377-1391,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1979)036<1377:SSAATF>2.0.CO;2.
Wu,Z.H.,and N.E.Huang,2009:Ensemble empirical mode decomposition:A noise-assisted data analysis method.Advances in Adaptive Data Analysis,1,1-41,https://doi.org/10.1142/S1793536909000047.
Wu,Z.H.,N.E.Huang,J.M.Wallace,B.V.Smoliak,and X.Y.Chen,2011:On the time-varying trend in global-mean surface temperature.Climate Dyn.,37,759-773,https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1128-8.
WMO,2014:WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin:The State of Greenhouse Gases in the Atmosphere Based on Global Observations through 2013.https://library.wmo.int/pmb_ged/ghgbulletin_10-climate-summit-edition_en.pdf
Wyatt,M.G.,S.Kravtsov,and A.A.Tsonis,2012:Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and northern hemisphere’s climate variability.Climate Dyn.,38,929-949,https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1071-8.
Yang,H.J.,Y.Y.Zhao,Z.Y.Liu,Q.Li,F.He,and Q.Zhang,2015:Heat transport compensation in atmosphere and ocean over the past 22,000 years.Scientific Reports,5,16661,https://doi.org/10.1038/srep16661.
Yang,H.J.,Y.Y.Zhao,and Z.Y.Liu,2016:Understanding bjerknes compensation in atmosphere and ocean heat transports using a coupled box model.J.Climate,29,2145-2160,https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0281.1.
Yao,S.L.,J.J.Luo,G.Huang,and P.F.Wang,2017:Distinct global warming rates tied to multiple ocean surface temperature changes.Nature Climate Change,7(7),486-491,https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3304.