碳排放、产业结构与福建经济增长动态研究——基于VAR模型和Granger检验
|
摘要
基于1995-2017年间福建省CO_2排放强度、产业结构和GDP指标数据,通过VAR模型、单位根检验、残差序列统计检验、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应分析和预测方差分解,对福建省碳排放、产业结构与经济增长的动态关系进行了研究。研究结果表明:福建省CO_2排放强度对经济增长有影响,总的来说,CO_2排放强度的提高促进了经济增长;产业结构的升级能在较短时期内降低CO_2排放强度;CO_2排放强度不仅对经济增长有影响,还对产业结构的变动有影响。基于以上结论,提出了促进福建省碳排放、产业结构与经济增长互动发展的政策建议。
Based on the CO_2 emission intensity, industrial structure and GDP index data of Fujian province from 1995 to 2017, we studied the dynamic relationship between carbon emissions, industrial structure and economic growth in Fujian province by way of VAR model, unit root test, residual sequence statistical test, Granger causality test, impulse response analysis and prediction variance decomposition. The results show that the CO_2 emission intensity of Fujian province has an impact on economic growth. In general, the increase of CO_2 emission intensity promotes economic growth; the upgrading of industrial structure can reduce the CO_2 emission intensity in a short period of time; the CO_2 emission intensity not only has an impact on economic growth, but also has an impact on the change of industrial structure. Based on the above conclusions, some policy recommendations are proposed to promote the interactive development of carbon emissions, industrial structure and economic growth in Fujian province.
Based on the CO_2 emission intensity, industrial structure and GDP index data of Fujian province from 1995 to 2017, we studied the dynamic relationship between carbon emissions, industrial structure and economic growth in Fujian province by way of VAR model, unit root test, residual sequence statistical test, Granger causality test, impulse response analysis and prediction variance decomposition. The results show that the CO_2 emission intensity of Fujian province has an impact on economic growth. In general, the increase of CO_2 emission intensity promotes economic growth; the upgrading of industrial structure can reduce the CO_2 emission intensity in a short period of time; the CO_2 emission intensity not only has an impact on economic growth, but also has an impact on the change of industrial structure. Based on the above conclusions, some policy recommendations are proposed to promote the interactive development of carbon emissions, industrial structure and economic growth in Fujian province.
引文
[1]林伯强,蒋竺均.中国CO2的环境库兹涅茨曲线预测及影响因素分析[J].管理世界,2009,187(4):27-36.
[2]蔡风景,李元.基于图模型方法的我国CO2排放的EKC曲线检验及影响因素分析[J].数理统计与管理,2016,35(4):579-586.
[3]AlDY E J.An Environmental Kuznets curve analysis of U.S.state-level carbon dioxide emissions[J].Journal of Environment&Development,2005,14(1):48-72.
[4]左文鼎.CO2排放库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)在中国的检验[J].统计与决策,2014(11):22-24.
[5]李健,周慧.中国CO2排放强度与产业结构的关联分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012,22(1):7-14.
[6]仲伟周,姜锋,万晓丽.我国产业结构变动对CO2排放强度影响的实证研究[J].审计与经济研究,2015(6):88-96.
[7]陈永国,褚尚军,聂锐.我国产业结构与CO2排放强度的演进关系:基于“开口P型曲线”的解释[J].河北经贸大学学报,2013,34(2):54-59.
[8]杨会香,龚唯平.产业结构变动、技术进步与低碳经济发展:以广东省为例[J].产经评论,2012,3(1):43-52.
[9]于左,孔宪丽.产业结构、CO2排放与经济增长[J].经济管理,2013,35(7):24-34.
[10]ADOM P K,BEKOE W,AMUAKWA-MENSAH F,et al.Carbon dioxide emissions,economic growth,industrial structure,and technical efficiency:Empirical evidence from Ghana,Senegal,and Morocco on the causal dynamics[J].Energy,2012,47(1):314-325.
[11]张晓峒.计量经济学软件EViews使用指南[M].2版.天津:南开大学出版社,2004:150-172.
[12]梁立冬.中国产业结构升级对CO2排放强度的影响[D].大连:大连理工大学,2016.
[13]刘立斌.产业结构发展与经济周期形成关系研究[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工程大学,2002.
[14]王海静,刘楠楠.安徽省碳排放与产业结构合理化、高级化的关联性实证研究[J].铜陵学院学报,2016,15(3):16-19.
[15]李雪.我国碳排放与产业结构关联的分析与对策[J].工业技术经济,2014(1):154-160.
[2]蔡风景,李元.基于图模型方法的我国CO2排放的EKC曲线检验及影响因素分析[J].数理统计与管理,2016,35(4):579-586.
[3]AlDY E J.An Environmental Kuznets curve analysis of U.S.state-level carbon dioxide emissions[J].Journal of Environment&Development,2005,14(1):48-72.
[4]左文鼎.CO2排放库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)在中国的检验[J].统计与决策,2014(11):22-24.
[5]李健,周慧.中国CO2排放强度与产业结构的关联分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012,22(1):7-14.
[6]仲伟周,姜锋,万晓丽.我国产业结构变动对CO2排放强度影响的实证研究[J].审计与经济研究,2015(6):88-96.
[7]陈永国,褚尚军,聂锐.我国产业结构与CO2排放强度的演进关系:基于“开口P型曲线”的解释[J].河北经贸大学学报,2013,34(2):54-59.
[8]杨会香,龚唯平.产业结构变动、技术进步与低碳经济发展:以广东省为例[J].产经评论,2012,3(1):43-52.
[9]于左,孔宪丽.产业结构、CO2排放与经济增长[J].经济管理,2013,35(7):24-34.
[10]ADOM P K,BEKOE W,AMUAKWA-MENSAH F,et al.Carbon dioxide emissions,economic growth,industrial structure,and technical efficiency:Empirical evidence from Ghana,Senegal,and Morocco on the causal dynamics[J].Energy,2012,47(1):314-325.
[11]张晓峒.计量经济学软件EViews使用指南[M].2版.天津:南开大学出版社,2004:150-172.
[12]梁立冬.中国产业结构升级对CO2排放强度的影响[D].大连:大连理工大学,2016.
[13]刘立斌.产业结构发展与经济周期形成关系研究[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工程大学,2002.
[14]王海静,刘楠楠.安徽省碳排放与产业结构合理化、高级化的关联性实证研究[J].铜陵学院学报,2016,15(3):16-19.
[15]李雪.我国碳排放与产业结构关联的分析与对策[J].工业技术经济,2014(1):154-160.