区域粮食储备的地区差异与规模确定分析
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摘要
粮食储备对维护粮食安全和保障社会安定具有重大意义。在我国粮食产供需的时空差异持续加剧背景下,以省域为单元,利用空间探索性分析法研究我国近年来区域粮食储备的时空演变和地区差异,并利用空间计量模型对区域粮食储备规模的影响因素进行分析,给出分区域的粮食储备规模确定方式。结果发现:我国粮食储备具有显著空间正相关性,高储备区向东北地区扩展,低储备区进一步向西部地区转移,两者的显著集聚范围逐渐扩大,致使地区差异逐渐增大;区域粮食储备规模与粮食生产能力、人口规模、经济发展、灾害影响、交通条件和社会影响力紧密相关;综合考虑空间效应和相关因素确定区域粮食储备规模,为我国分区域粮食储备研究提供新思路。
Grain reserves are of great significance to the maintenance of food security and social stability. Recently, the gap between the time and space in production, supply, and demand of grain in China has been continuously increasing, which leads to the unreasonable regional grain reserves scale problems of China. Taking province as research unit, this paper analyzed the temporal evolution and regional differences of regional grain reserves by utilizing spatial exploratory analysis and dissected influencing factors of regional grain reserves scale through spatial econometric model. It provided a definite method of regional grain reserves scale for different sub-regions. The results showed that: China's grain reserves spatial correlation index is bigger than zero and increased year by year, indicating that different regional reserves scales have significant positive spatial correlation. The overall distribution of China's grain reserves shows a polarization from east to west and has undergone a significant spatial-temporal evolution with high reserves area expanding to the northeast and low reserves area transferring to the west, which caused the increasing regional differences. Regression analysis shows that the scale of regional grain reserves is closely related to grain production capacity, population size, economic development, disaster influence, transportation conditions and social influence. The regression coefficient of the spatial lag term was 0.2451, manifesting that the geographical positive spatial correlation of regional reserves scales transmits through adjacent areas. Based on this, this paper put forward the prediction range of regional grain reserves scale in 2020 by considering the spatial effect and correlative factors, which provides a new perspective for researches on regional grain reserves in China.
Grain reserves are of great significance to the maintenance of food security and social stability. Recently, the gap between the time and space in production, supply, and demand of grain in China has been continuously increasing, which leads to the unreasonable regional grain reserves scale problems of China. Taking province as research unit, this paper analyzed the temporal evolution and regional differences of regional grain reserves by utilizing spatial exploratory analysis and dissected influencing factors of regional grain reserves scale through spatial econometric model. It provided a definite method of regional grain reserves scale for different sub-regions. The results showed that: China's grain reserves spatial correlation index is bigger than zero and increased year by year, indicating that different regional reserves scales have significant positive spatial correlation. The overall distribution of China's grain reserves shows a polarization from east to west and has undergone a significant spatial-temporal evolution with high reserves area expanding to the northeast and low reserves area transferring to the west, which caused the increasing regional differences. Regression analysis shows that the scale of regional grain reserves is closely related to grain production capacity, population size, economic development, disaster influence, transportation conditions and social influence. The regression coefficient of the spatial lag term was 0.2451, manifesting that the geographical positive spatial correlation of regional reserves scales transmits through adjacent areas. Based on this, this paper put forward the prediction range of regional grain reserves scale in 2020 by considering the spatial effect and correlative factors, which provides a new perspective for researches on regional grain reserves in China.
引文
[1]吴娟,王雅鹏.我国粮食储备调控体系的现状与完善对策.农业现代化研究,2011,35(6):661-665.[WU J,WANGY P.The current situation and improvement of China's grain reserve control system.Agricultural Modernization Research,2011,35(6):661-665.]
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[3]谢高地,成升魁,肖玉.新时期中国粮食供需平衡态势及粮食安全观的重构.自然资源学报,2017,32(6):895-903.[XIE G D,CHENG S K,XIAO Y.Reconstruction of China's grain supply and demand balance situation and grain security concept in the new era.Journal of Natural Resources,2017,32(6):895-903.]
[4]刘颖,许为,樊刚.中国粮食安全储备最优规模研究.农业技术经济,2010,221(11):83-89.[LIU Y,XU W,FAN G.Research on the optimal size of China's food security reserve.Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2010,221(11):83-89.]
[5]蒋和平,朱福守.我国粮食储备管理现状和政策建议.中国农业科技导报,2015,17(6):8-14.[JIANG H P,ZHU F S.The status quo and policy recommendations of China's grain reserve management.China Agricultural Science and Technology Guide,2015,17(6):8-14.]
[6]周明建,叶文琴.发达国家确保粮食安全的对策及对我国的借鉴意义.农业经济问题,2005,56(6):74-78.[ZHOU MJ,YE W Q.The countermeasures of ensuring food security in developed countries and reference to China.Issues in Agricultural Economy,2005,56(6):74-78.]
[7]马九杰,张传宗.中国粮食储备规模模拟优化与政策分析.管理世界,2002,11(9):95-105,113.[MA J J,ZHANG CZ.Simulation optimization and policy analysis of China's grain reserve scale.Management World,2002,11(9):95-105,113.]
[8]吴志华,施国庆,胡荣华.中国粮食安全储备及其规模确定.中国农村观察,2002,44(8):1-15.[WU Z H,SHI G Q,HU R H.China's grain security reserves and its size determination.China Rural Survey,2002,44(8):1-15.]
[9]贾晋.我国粮食储备的合理规模、布局与宏观调控.重庆社会科学,2012,37(2):82-94.[JIA J.Reasonable scale,layout and macro control of grain reserves in China.Chongqing Social Science,2012,37(2):82-94.]
[10]EVAN D G,ALEXANDER L,KRISHNA K C.Food stocks and grain reserves:Evaluating whether storing food creates resilient food systems.Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences,2015,5(3):12-16.
[11]CRISTINA L,DRAGA A.Peri-urban areas and land use structure in Romania at LAU2 level:An exploratory spatial data analysis.Procedia Environmental Sciences,2016,1(32):2-6.
[12]ANSELIN L.Local indicators of spatial association-LISA.Geographical Analysis,1995,27(2):93-115.
[13]ANSELIN L.The Moran Scatterplot as an ESDA Tool to Assess Local Instability in Spatial Association.Spatial Analytical Perspectives on GIS.New York:Pergamon Press,1996.
[14]蒲英霞,葛莹,马荣华,等.基于ESDA的区域经济空间差异分析:以江苏省为例.地理研究,2005,24(16):965-974.[PU Y X,GE Y,MA R H,et al.Analysis of regional economic disparities based on ESDA:A case study of Jiangsu province.Geographical Research,2005,24(16):965-974.
[15]潘佩佩,杨桂山,苏伟忠,等.太湖流域粮食生产时空格局演变与粮食安全评价.自然资源学报,2013,28(6):931-943.[PAN P P,YANG G S,SU W Z,et al.Evolution of spatial and temporal patterns of grain production in Taihu Basin and evaluation of food security.Journal of Natural Resources,2013,28(6):931-943.]
[16]ANSELIN L.Exploring Spatial Data with GeoDa:A Workbook.New York:Center for Spatially Integrated Social Science,2005.
[17]LE G,CHASCO.Spatial econometrics principles and challenges in Jean Paelinck's research.Spatial Economic Analysis,2015,10(3):32-34.
[18]ANSELIN L,FLORAX R,REY S J.Advances in Spatial Econometrics:Methodology,Tools and Applications.New York:Springer,2004.
[19]BRUINS H J,BU F.Food security in China and contingency planning:The significance of grain reserves.Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management,2006,3(3):7-14.
[20]吴健生,蒋培培,黄秀兰,等.广东省粮食供需时空格局.自然资源学报,2013,28(2):253-265.[WU J S,JIANG P P,HUANG X L,et al.The spatial and temporal pattern of grain supply and demand in Guangdong province.Journal of Natural Resources,2013,28(2):253-265.]
[21]孟斌,王劲峰,张文忠,等.基于空间分析方法的中国区域差异研究.地理科学,2005,11(4):23-28.[MENG B,WANG J F,ZHANG W Z,et al.Study on regional differences of China based on spatial analysis.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2005,11(4):23-28.]
[22]方远平,唐瑶,胡靖.城镇化背景下粮食安全格局的时空演变及其影响因素分析:基于我国省域的空间计量分析.岭南学刊,2016,22(5):114-124.[FANG Y P,TANG Y,HU J.The spatial and temporal evolution of food security pattern in the context of urbanization and its influencing factors:Based on spatial quantitative analysis of China's province.Lingnan Journal,2016,22(5):114-124.]
[23]程叶青,张平宇.东北商品粮基地粮食生产的区域分异.自然资源学报,2005,23(6):131-137.[CHENG Y Q,ZAHNG P Y.Regional differentiation of grain production in northeast commodity grain base.Journal of Natural Resources,2005,23(6):131-137.]
[24]齐志高,李堑.论影响我国粮食储备安全的因素.粮食储藏,2006,12(1):3-9.[QI Z G,LI Q.Factors affecting China's grain reserve security.Grain Storage,2006,12(1):3-9.]
[25]徐力行.中国官方粮食储备合理规模的确定依据.现代经济探讨,2004,34(7):56-58.[XU L X.Determination of the reasonable size of China's official grain reserves.Modern Economic Discussion,2004,34(7):56-58.]
[26]吕新业,刘华.农户粮食储备规模及行为影响因素分析:基于四省不同粮食品种的调查.农业技术经济,2012,41(12):22-30.[LYU X Y,LIU H.Analysis on the scale and behavior of grain reserves of farmers:Based on the investigation of different grain varieties in four provinces.Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2012,41(12):22-30.]
[27]娄源功.基于国家粮食安全的专项储备粮规模研究.农业技术经济,2003,23(4):6-12.[LOU Y G.Research on the scale of grain reserves based on national food security.Agricultural Technology Economy,2003,23(4):6-12.]
[28]李凤廷,侯云先,邵开丽.突发事件下的粮食物流:基于情景应对的储备粮紧急调运决策框架.中国农村经济,2016,21(12):60-75.[LI F T,HOU Y X,SHAO K L.Food logistics under the emergency situation:A framework for emergency transportation decision based on situation response.Chinese Rural Economy,2016,21(12):60-75.]
[29]吴吉东,傅宇,张洁.1949-2013年中国气象灾害灾情变化趋势分析.自然资源学报,2014,29(9):1520-1530.[WU JD,FU Y,ZHANG J.Analysis on the trend of disaster situation in China's meteorological disasters from 1949 to 2013.Journal of Natural Resources,2014,29(9):1520-1530.]
[30]中国国家统计局.中国统计年鉴.北京:中国统计出版社,2009-2016.[National Bureau of Statistics of China.China Statistical Yearbook.Beijing:China Statistics Press,2009-2016.]
[31]柴玲欢,朱会义.中国粮食生产区域集中化的演化趋势.自然资源学报,2016,31(6):908-919.[CHAI L H,ZHU H Y.The evolution trend of regional concentration of grain production in China.Journal of Natural Resources,2016,31(6):908-919.]
[32]甄霖,王超,成升魁.1953-2016年中国粮食补贴政策分析.自然资源学报,2017,32(6):904-914.[ZHEN L,WANGC,CEHNG S K.Analysis of China's grain subsidy policy from 1953 to 2016.Journal of Natural Resources,2017,32(6):904-914.]
[2]殷培红,方修琦,马玉玲,等.21世纪初我国粮食供需的新空间格局.自然资源学报,2006,29(4):625-631,678.[YINP H,FANG X Q,MA Y L,et al.The new spatial pattern of China's grain supply and demand in the early 21st century.Journal of Natural Resources,2006,29(4):625-631,678.]
[3]谢高地,成升魁,肖玉.新时期中国粮食供需平衡态势及粮食安全观的重构.自然资源学报,2017,32(6):895-903.[XIE G D,CHENG S K,XIAO Y.Reconstruction of China's grain supply and demand balance situation and grain security concept in the new era.Journal of Natural Resources,2017,32(6):895-903.]
[4]刘颖,许为,樊刚.中国粮食安全储备最优规模研究.农业技术经济,2010,221(11):83-89.[LIU Y,XU W,FAN G.Research on the optimal size of China's food security reserve.Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2010,221(11):83-89.]
[5]蒋和平,朱福守.我国粮食储备管理现状和政策建议.中国农业科技导报,2015,17(6):8-14.[JIANG H P,ZHU F S.The status quo and policy recommendations of China's grain reserve management.China Agricultural Science and Technology Guide,2015,17(6):8-14.]
[6]周明建,叶文琴.发达国家确保粮食安全的对策及对我国的借鉴意义.农业经济问题,2005,56(6):74-78.[ZHOU MJ,YE W Q.The countermeasures of ensuring food security in developed countries and reference to China.Issues in Agricultural Economy,2005,56(6):74-78.]
[7]马九杰,张传宗.中国粮食储备规模模拟优化与政策分析.管理世界,2002,11(9):95-105,113.[MA J J,ZHANG CZ.Simulation optimization and policy analysis of China's grain reserve scale.Management World,2002,11(9):95-105,113.]
[8]吴志华,施国庆,胡荣华.中国粮食安全储备及其规模确定.中国农村观察,2002,44(8):1-15.[WU Z H,SHI G Q,HU R H.China's grain security reserves and its size determination.China Rural Survey,2002,44(8):1-15.]
[9]贾晋.我国粮食储备的合理规模、布局与宏观调控.重庆社会科学,2012,37(2):82-94.[JIA J.Reasonable scale,layout and macro control of grain reserves in China.Chongqing Social Science,2012,37(2):82-94.]
[10]EVAN D G,ALEXANDER L,KRISHNA K C.Food stocks and grain reserves:Evaluating whether storing food creates resilient food systems.Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences,2015,5(3):12-16.
[11]CRISTINA L,DRAGA A.Peri-urban areas and land use structure in Romania at LAU2 level:An exploratory spatial data analysis.Procedia Environmental Sciences,2016,1(32):2-6.
[12]ANSELIN L.Local indicators of spatial association-LISA.Geographical Analysis,1995,27(2):93-115.
[13]ANSELIN L.The Moran Scatterplot as an ESDA Tool to Assess Local Instability in Spatial Association.Spatial Analytical Perspectives on GIS.New York:Pergamon Press,1996.
[14]蒲英霞,葛莹,马荣华,等.基于ESDA的区域经济空间差异分析:以江苏省为例.地理研究,2005,24(16):965-974.[PU Y X,GE Y,MA R H,et al.Analysis of regional economic disparities based on ESDA:A case study of Jiangsu province.Geographical Research,2005,24(16):965-974.
[15]潘佩佩,杨桂山,苏伟忠,等.太湖流域粮食生产时空格局演变与粮食安全评价.自然资源学报,2013,28(6):931-943.[PAN P P,YANG G S,SU W Z,et al.Evolution of spatial and temporal patterns of grain production in Taihu Basin and evaluation of food security.Journal of Natural Resources,2013,28(6):931-943.]
[16]ANSELIN L.Exploring Spatial Data with GeoDa:A Workbook.New York:Center for Spatially Integrated Social Science,2005.
[17]LE G,CHASCO.Spatial econometrics principles and challenges in Jean Paelinck's research.Spatial Economic Analysis,2015,10(3):32-34.
[18]ANSELIN L,FLORAX R,REY S J.Advances in Spatial Econometrics:Methodology,Tools and Applications.New York:Springer,2004.
[19]BRUINS H J,BU F.Food security in China and contingency planning:The significance of grain reserves.Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management,2006,3(3):7-14.
[20]吴健生,蒋培培,黄秀兰,等.广东省粮食供需时空格局.自然资源学报,2013,28(2):253-265.[WU J S,JIANG P P,HUANG X L,et al.The spatial and temporal pattern of grain supply and demand in Guangdong province.Journal of Natural Resources,2013,28(2):253-265.]
[21]孟斌,王劲峰,张文忠,等.基于空间分析方法的中国区域差异研究.地理科学,2005,11(4):23-28.[MENG B,WANG J F,ZHANG W Z,et al.Study on regional differences of China based on spatial analysis.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2005,11(4):23-28.]
[22]方远平,唐瑶,胡靖.城镇化背景下粮食安全格局的时空演变及其影响因素分析:基于我国省域的空间计量分析.岭南学刊,2016,22(5):114-124.[FANG Y P,TANG Y,HU J.The spatial and temporal evolution of food security pattern in the context of urbanization and its influencing factors:Based on spatial quantitative analysis of China's province.Lingnan Journal,2016,22(5):114-124.]
[23]程叶青,张平宇.东北商品粮基地粮食生产的区域分异.自然资源学报,2005,23(6):131-137.[CHENG Y Q,ZAHNG P Y.Regional differentiation of grain production in northeast commodity grain base.Journal of Natural Resources,2005,23(6):131-137.]
[24]齐志高,李堑.论影响我国粮食储备安全的因素.粮食储藏,2006,12(1):3-9.[QI Z G,LI Q.Factors affecting China's grain reserve security.Grain Storage,2006,12(1):3-9.]
[25]徐力行.中国官方粮食储备合理规模的确定依据.现代经济探讨,2004,34(7):56-58.[XU L X.Determination of the reasonable size of China's official grain reserves.Modern Economic Discussion,2004,34(7):56-58.]
[26]吕新业,刘华.农户粮食储备规模及行为影响因素分析:基于四省不同粮食品种的调查.农业技术经济,2012,41(12):22-30.[LYU X Y,LIU H.Analysis on the scale and behavior of grain reserves of farmers:Based on the investigation of different grain varieties in four provinces.Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2012,41(12):22-30.]
[27]娄源功.基于国家粮食安全的专项储备粮规模研究.农业技术经济,2003,23(4):6-12.[LOU Y G.Research on the scale of grain reserves based on national food security.Agricultural Technology Economy,2003,23(4):6-12.]
[28]李凤廷,侯云先,邵开丽.突发事件下的粮食物流:基于情景应对的储备粮紧急调运决策框架.中国农村经济,2016,21(12):60-75.[LI F T,HOU Y X,SHAO K L.Food logistics under the emergency situation:A framework for emergency transportation decision based on situation response.Chinese Rural Economy,2016,21(12):60-75.]
[29]吴吉东,傅宇,张洁.1949-2013年中国气象灾害灾情变化趋势分析.自然资源学报,2014,29(9):1520-1530.[WU JD,FU Y,ZHANG J.Analysis on the trend of disaster situation in China's meteorological disasters from 1949 to 2013.Journal of Natural Resources,2014,29(9):1520-1530.]
[30]中国国家统计局.中国统计年鉴.北京:中国统计出版社,2009-2016.[National Bureau of Statistics of China.China Statistical Yearbook.Beijing:China Statistics Press,2009-2016.]
[31]柴玲欢,朱会义.中国粮食生产区域集中化的演化趋势.自然资源学报,2016,31(6):908-919.[CHAI L H,ZHU H Y.The evolution trend of regional concentration of grain production in China.Journal of Natural Resources,2016,31(6):908-919.]
[32]甄霖,王超,成升魁.1953-2016年中国粮食补贴政策分析.自然资源学报,2017,32(6):904-914.[ZHEN L,WANGC,CEHNG S K.Analysis of China's grain subsidy policy from 1953 to 2016.Journal of Natural Resources,2017,32(6):904-914.]
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