青藏高原东南缘迪庆地区年季蒸发皿蒸发、降水和径流深分析
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摘要
利用青藏高原东南边缘核心区迪庆地区3个站的蒸发皿蒸发、降水、径流深观测资料,分析了各要素年内、年际变化规律,检验了突变点,探讨了区域蒸发、降水、径流深相关关系。结果表明:研究区蒸发量年内四季分布相对均衡,其次为径流深及降水量;径流深年际离散系数低,其次为降水量、蒸发量;径流深年内季节分布年际离散系数低,其次为蒸发量、降水量。研究区年度蒸发量的增加主要因春季蒸发增加,年度降水量的减少主要因冬季降水量减少,年度径流深的增加主要因夏季、秋季、冬季径流深增加所致,夏季径流深增加主要因夏季蒸发减少,秋季径流深增加主要因秋季降水增加、蒸发减少、夏季径流增加、蒸发减少所致,冬季径流深增加主要因秋季径流增加所致。研究区年度、春季蒸发量下降趋势显著,年度干旱、春旱风险呈降低趋势;降水量年内占比趋向于向夏季、秋季集中,径流深夏、秋季呈增加趋势,区域内洪涝灾害风险有增大趋势。2000年以来,区域内年度蒸发量出现较为明显增加趋势,年度降水量、年度径流深出现明显减少趋势,该趋势与线性趋势出现背离,且年度和四季降水量、径流深在2014年左右均检测出变少突变信号,该现象可能对区域生态环境及水资源状况产生较大影响。
In this study, the evaporation(dish evaporation), precipitation and runoff depth in Diqing Prefecture in the southeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau were studied. The annual and inter-annual evolution of each element were analyzed. The mutation points were examined and the correlation among regional evaporation, precipitation and runoff depth were discussed. The results showed that:(1) The evaporation in the study area was relatively equilibrium in the four seasons, as well as runoff depth and precipitation; the interannual dispersion coefficient of runoff depth was low, as well as precipitation and evaporation; the interannual dispersion coefficient of runoff was low also, as well as evaporation and Precipitation.(2) The annual evaporation increasing in the study area was mainly due to the evaporation increasing in spring. The decrease of annual precipitation was mainly due to the decrease of precipitation in winter. The increase of annual runoff depth was mainly due to the increase of runoff depth in summer, autumn and winter. The increase of runoff depth in summer was mainly due to summer evaporation decreasing, and the increase in runoff depth in autumn was mainly caused by precipitation increase in autumn, evaporation decreasing in autumn; the increase in runoff depth in winter was mainly due to runoff increase in autumn.(3) The annual and spring evaporation declines in the study area were significant, and the annual drought and spring drought risks were decreasing. The annual precipitation tended to concentrate in summer and autumn, and the runoff increased in deep summer and autumn; the risk of flood disasters in this region increased. Since 2000, annual evaporation has increased significantly and precipitation and runoff have decreased significantly in the study area. This trend has deviated from the linear trend. In addition, the annual and seasonal precipitation and runoff depth have detected some mutation signals showing a decreasing around 2014, which may have a great impact on regional ecological environment and water resources.
In this study, the evaporation(dish evaporation), precipitation and runoff depth in Diqing Prefecture in the southeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau were studied. The annual and inter-annual evolution of each element were analyzed. The mutation points were examined and the correlation among regional evaporation, precipitation and runoff depth were discussed. The results showed that:(1) The evaporation in the study area was relatively equilibrium in the four seasons, as well as runoff depth and precipitation; the interannual dispersion coefficient of runoff depth was low, as well as precipitation and evaporation; the interannual dispersion coefficient of runoff was low also, as well as evaporation and Precipitation.(2) The annual evaporation increasing in the study area was mainly due to the evaporation increasing in spring. The decrease of annual precipitation was mainly due to the decrease of precipitation in winter. The increase of annual runoff depth was mainly due to the increase of runoff depth in summer, autumn and winter. The increase of runoff depth in summer was mainly due to summer evaporation decreasing, and the increase in runoff depth in autumn was mainly caused by precipitation increase in autumn, evaporation decreasing in autumn; the increase in runoff depth in winter was mainly due to runoff increase in autumn.(3) The annual and spring evaporation declines in the study area were significant, and the annual drought and spring drought risks were decreasing. The annual precipitation tended to concentrate in summer and autumn, and the runoff increased in deep summer and autumn; the risk of flood disasters in this region increased. Since 2000, annual evaporation has increased significantly and precipitation and runoff have decreased significantly in the study area. This trend has deviated from the linear trend. In addition, the annual and seasonal precipitation and runoff depth have detected some mutation signals showing a decreasing around 2014, which may have a great impact on regional ecological environment and water resources.
引文
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[2] Duan Wei,Duan Xu,Xu Kai,et al.Research about radiosonde stations increase in Southeast side of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau based on Its water vapor characteristics[J].Plateau Meteorology,2015,34(2):307-317.[段玮,段旭,徐开,等.从水汽角度对青藏高原东南侧高空探测布局的分析[J].高原气象,2015,34(2):307-317.]
[3] Shi Xiaoyin,Xu Xiande,Miao Qiuju,et al.Structural characteristics of the dynamic structure of the east Asian Monsoon and the overall effect of the whole layer water vapor budget in key areas[C]//Session of the Annual Meeting of the Chinese Meteorological Society "Scene Weather System Activities and Forecast Technology",2006:1928.[施小英,徐祥德,苗秋菊,等.东亚季风的动力结构与关键区整层水汽收支总体效应相关结构特征[C]//中国气象学会年会"灾害性天气系统的活动及其预报技术"分会场,2006:1928.]
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[5] Xie Chengying,Li Minjiao,Zhang Xueqin,et al.Moisture transport features in summer and its rainfall effects over key region in southern margin of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau[J].Plateau Meteorology,2015,34(2):327-337.[解承莹,李敏姣,张雪芹,等.青藏高原南缘关键区夏季水汽输送特征及其与高原降水的关系[J].高原气象,2015,34(2):327-337.]
[6] Li Dengxuan,Wang Chenghai.The relation between soil moisture over the Tibetan Plateau in spring and summer precipitation in the eastern China[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2016,38(1):89-99.[李登宣,王澄海.青藏高原春季土壤湿度与中国东部夏季降水之间的关系[J].冰川冻土,2016,38(1):89-99.]
[7] Guo Juxin,Wang Ziyin,Bai Bo,et al.Climatic changes of the Three-River-Area and its effect on ecological environment in Yunnan[J].Yunnan Geographic Environment Research,2006,18(2):48-52.[郭菊馨,王自英,白波,等.云南三江并流地区气候变化及其对生态环境的影响[J].云南地理环境研究,2006,18(2):48-52.]
[8] Ding Minjun,Li Lanhui,Zhang Yili,et al.Temperature change and its elevation dependency on the Tibetan Plateau and its vicinity from 1971 to 2012[J].Resources Science,2014,36(7):1509-1518.[丁明军,李兰晖,张镱锂,等.1971-2012年青藏高原及周边地区气温变化特征及其海拔敏感性分析[J].资源科学,2014,36(7):1509-1518.]
[9] Wang Yanjun,Jiang Tong,Xu Chongyu.Observed trends of pan evaporation and its impact factors over the Yangtze River basin between 1961 and 2000[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2005,20(6):864-870.[王艳君,姜彤,许崇育.长江流域蒸发皿蒸发量及影响因素变化趋势[J].自然资源学报,2005,20(6):864-870.]
[10] Liu Yingxi,Peng Guifen,Chen Xiangang,et al.Climatic and environmental changes in Shangri-La in next 50 years according to wavelet analysis and multiple VAR regression prediction modeling[J].Resources Science,2016,38(9):1754-1767.[刘盈曦,彭贵芬,陈先刚,等.香格里拉未来50 a主要气候环境要素变化预估——基于小波分析和多元VAR回归预估模型[J].资源科学,2016,38(9):1754-1767.]
[11] Kang Shichang,Zhang Yongjun,Qin Dahe,et al.Recent temperature increase recorded in an ice core in the source region of Yangtze River[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2007,52(4):457-462.[康世昌,张拥军,秦大河,等.近期青藏高原长江源区急剧升温的冰芯证据[J].科学通报,2007,52(4):457-462.]
[12] Bo Yue,Li Xiaolan,Wang Chenghai.Seasonal characteristics of the interannual variations centre of the Tibetan Plateau snow cover[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2014,36(6):1353-1362.[伯玥,李小兰,王澄海.青藏高原地区积雪年际变化异常中心的季节变化特征[J].冰川冻土,2014,36(6):1353-1362.]
[13] Xu Fei,Jia Yangwen,Niu Cunwen,et al.Variation character of annual,seasonal and monthly temperature and precipitation[J].Mountain Research,2018,36(2):171-1839.[徐飞,贾仰文,牛存稳,等.横断山区气温和降水年季月变化特征[J].山地学报,2018,36(2):171-1839.]
[14] Chen Yuan,Wang Wenshen,Wang Guoqing,et al.Characteristics analysis on temperature and precipitation variation in Jinsha River[J].Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research,2010,30(4):51-56.[陈媛,王文圣,王国庆,等.金沙江流域气温降水变化特性分析[J].高原山地气象研究,2010,30(4):51-56.]
[15] Qi Tianyao,Zhang Qiang,Wang Yue,et al.Spatiotemporal patterns of Pan evaporation in 1960-2005 in China:changing properties and possible causes[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2015,35(12):1599-1606.[祁添垚,张强,王月,等.1960-2005年中国蒸发皿蒸发量变化趋势及其影响因素分析[J].地理科学,2015,35(12):1599-1606.]
[16] Rong Yanshu,Zhang Xingnan,Jiang Haiyan,et al.Pan evaporation change and its impact on water cycle over the upper reach of the Yangtze River[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2012,55(9):2889-2897.[荣艳淑,张行南,姜海燕,等.长江上游区域蒸发皿蒸发量变化及其对水分循环的影响[J].地球物理学报,2012,55(9):2889-2897.]
[17] Hao Zhenchun,Yang Rongrong,Chen Xinmei,et al.Tempo-spatial patterns of the potential evaporation in the Yangtze River catchment for the period 1960-2011[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2013,35(2):408-419.[郝振纯,杨荣榕,陈新美,等.1960-2011年长江流域潜在蒸发量的时空变化特征[J].冰川冻土,2013,35(2):408-419.]
[18] Chen Yuan,Wang Shunjiu,Wang Guoqing,et al.Runoff variation characteristics analysis on Jinsha River[J].Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research,2010,30(2):26-30.[陈媛,王顺久,王国庆,等.金沙江流域径流变化特性分析[J].高原山地气象研究,2010,30 (2):26-30.]
[19] Tang Qiyi.DPS data processing system volumeⅡcontemporary statistics and data mining[M].Beijing:Science Press,2013:474-477.[唐启义.DPS数据处理系统,第二卷:现代统计及数据挖掘[M].北京:科学出版社,2013:474-477.]
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