中国参与全球价值链的环境效应分析
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摘要
本文基于WIOD数据库刻画了2001—2009年间我国14个工业行业与全球38个主要国家间的价值链嵌入度和贸易隐含碳排放程度,并实证研究了我国全球价值链嵌入对碳排放的影响。研究发现:首先,全球价值链嵌入会显著减少工业行业的贸易隐含碳排放,但是参与价值链会加剧污染密集型行业的贸易隐含碳排放量。同时,外商直接投资并没有通过参与国际分工给中国的环境造成恶化效应,反而促进了环境的改善。此外,全球价值链嵌入对技术密集型行业的环境改善效应更强。其次,分位数回归发现随着价值链嵌入程度提高,全球价值链嵌入对环境污染的改善效应表现得更为突出。最后,全球价值链嵌入对环境的改善效应主要来源于全球价值链前向嵌入的积极作用,全球价值链后向嵌入则会提高行业的贸易隐含碳排放。也就是说,提高中国中间品间接出口的比重将有利于环境质量的改善,但国内增加值率的下降将恶化我国的环境状况。
This paper measures the degree of global value chain embedment and embodied carbon in trade between China and 38 trading partners,and then does empirical research on the environmental effect of GVC's embedment. First,we find that embedment in global value chains significantly reduces the industry's embodied carbon in trade and the effect is larger in non-polluting intensive,high degree of foreign investment and technology intensive industries. Second,quantile regression shows that as the value chain embedded increase,the improvement effect is more prominent. Finally,the improvement effect is mainly derived from the forward linkages,while backward linkages play a negative role. In other words,improving the indirect value-added exports will be helpful for the improvement of environment,but the decrease of domestic value added in gross exports worsens the environment.
This paper measures the degree of global value chain embedment and embodied carbon in trade between China and 38 trading partners,and then does empirical research on the environmental effect of GVC's embedment. First,we find that embedment in global value chains significantly reduces the industry's embodied carbon in trade and the effect is larger in non-polluting intensive,high degree of foreign investment and technology intensive industries. Second,quantile regression shows that as the value chain embedded increase,the improvement effect is more prominent. Finally,the improvement effect is mainly derived from the forward linkages,while backward linkages play a negative role. In other words,improving the indirect value-added exports will be helpful for the improvement of environment,but the decrease of domestic value added in gross exports worsens the environment.
引文
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[18]王玉燕,王建秀,阎俊爱,等.全球价值链嵌入的节能减排双重效应——来自中国工业面板数据的经验研究[J].中国软科学,2015(8):148-162.
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[22]王红领,李稻葵,冯俊新,等. FDI与自主研发:基于行业数据的经验研究[J].经济研究,2006(2):44-56.
[23]KELLER W. International technology diffusion[J]. Journal of economic literature,2004,42(3):752-782.
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[26]GEREFFI G. Beyond the producer-driven/buyer-driven dichotomy the evolution of global value chains in the internet era[J]. IDS bulletin,2001,32(3):30-40.
[27]刘俊伶,王克,邹骥.基于MRIO模型的全球贸易内涵碳流向分析[J].世界经济研究,2014(6):43-48,88.
[28]JOHNSON R C,NOGUERA G. Accounting for intermediates:Production sharing and trade in value added[J]. Journal of international economics,2012,86(2):224-236.
[29]HUMMELS D,ISHII J,YI K M. The nature and growth of vertical specialization in world trade[J]. Journal of international economics,2001,54(1):75-96.
[30]KOOPMAN R,WANG Z,WEI S J. Estimating domestic content in exports when processing trade is pervasive[J]. Journal of development economics,2012,99(1):178-l89.
[31]KOOPMAN R,WANG Z,WEI S J. Tracing value-added and double counting in gross exports[J]. American economic review,2014,104(2):459-94.
[32]郭庆旺,贾俊雪.中国全要素生产率的估算:1979—2004[J].经济研究,2005(6):51-60.
[33]张小蒂,李晓钟.对我国长三角地区全要素生产率的估算及分析[J].管理世界,2005(11):59-66.
[34]COPELAND B R, TAYLOR M S. North-South trade and the environment[J]. The quarterly journal of economics,1994,109(3):755-787.
[35]BUSSE M. Trade,environmental regulations,and the world trade organization:new empirical evidence[R]. 2004.
[36]吕越,吕云龙.全球价值链嵌入会改善制造业企业的生产效率吗——基于双重稳健-倾向得分加权估计[J].财贸经济,2016(3):109-122.
[2]HUMPHREY J,SCHMITZ H. Governance and upgrading:linking industrial cluster and global value chain research[M]. Brighton:Institute of Development Studies,2000.
[3]BALDWIN J,YAN B. Global value chains and the productivity of Canadian manufacturing firms[M]. New York city NY:Statistics Canada,2014.
[4]王玉燕,林汉川,吕臣,等.全球价值链嵌入的技术进步效应——来自中国工业面板数据的经验研究[J].中国工业经济,2014(9):65-77.
[5]BLANCHARD E J,BOWN C P,JOHNSON R C,et al. Global supply chains and trade policy[R]. 2016.
[6]COPELAND B R, TAYLOR M S. North-South trade and the environment[J]. The quarterly journal of economics,1994,109(3):755-87.
[7]何洁.国际贸易对环境的影响:中国各省的二氧化硫(SO2)工业排放[J].经济学(季刊),2010(2):415-446.
[8]SHUI B,HARRISS R C. The role of CO2embodiment in US–China trade[J]. Energy policy,2006,34(18):4063-4068.
[9]彭水军,刘安平.中国对外贸易的环境影响效应:基于环境投入-产出模型的经验研究[J].世界经济,2010(5):140-160.
[10]李锴,齐绍洲.贸易开放、经济增长与中国二氧化碳排放[J].经济研究,2011(11):60-72,102.
[11]李小平,卢现祥.国际贸易、污染产业转移和中国工业CO2排放[J].经济研究,2010(1):15-26.
[12]MENG B,PETERS G P,WANG Z,et al. Tracing CO2emissions in global value chains[J]. Energy economics,2018,73:24-42.
[13]彭水军,张文城,孙传旺,等.中国生产侧和消费侧碳排放量测算及影响因素研究[J].经济研究,2015(1):168-182.
[14]ARCE G G,CADARSO V M,LóPEZ S L,et al. Indirect pollution haven hypothesis in a context of global value chain,final WIOD conference:causes and consequences of globalization[C].2012.
[15]TAMBUNLERTCHAI K,KONTOLEON A,KHANNA M,et al.Assessing participation in voluntary environmental programs in the developing world:the role of FDI and export orientation on ISO14001 adoption in Thailand[J]. Applied economics,2013,45(15):2039-2048.
[16]盛斌,吕越.外国直接投资对中国环境的影响——来自工业行业面板数据的实证研究[J].中国社会科学,2012(5):54-75,205-206.
[17]张少华,陈浪南.经济全球化对我国能源利用效率影响的实证研究——基于中国行业面板数据[J].经济科学,2009(1):102-111.
[18]王玉燕,王建秀,阎俊爱,等.全球价值链嵌入的节能减排双重效应——来自中国工业面板数据的经验研究[J].中国软科学,2015(8):148-162.
[19]KOOPMAN R,POWERS W,WANG Z,et al. Give credit where credit is due:tracing value added in global production chains[R].2010.
[20]MAURER A,DEGAIN C. Globalization and trade flows:what you see is not what you get![J]. Journal of international commerce,economics and policy,2012,3(3):1-29.
[21]WANG Z,WEI S J,ZHU K. Quantifying international production sharing at the bilateral and sector levels[R]. 2013.
[22]王红领,李稻葵,冯俊新,等. FDI与自主研发:基于行业数据的经验研究[J].经济研究,2006(2):44-56.
[23]KELLER W. International technology diffusion[J]. Journal of economic literature,2004,42(3):752-782.
[24]UNCTAD. World investment report 2013:global value chains:investment and trade for development[R]. 2013.
[25]HUMPHREY J,SCHMITZ H. How does insertion in global value chains affect upgrading in industrial clusters?[J]. Regional studies,2002,36(9):1017-1027.
[26]GEREFFI G. Beyond the producer-driven/buyer-driven dichotomy the evolution of global value chains in the internet era[J]. IDS bulletin,2001,32(3):30-40.
[27]刘俊伶,王克,邹骥.基于MRIO模型的全球贸易内涵碳流向分析[J].世界经济研究,2014(6):43-48,88.
[28]JOHNSON R C,NOGUERA G. Accounting for intermediates:Production sharing and trade in value added[J]. Journal of international economics,2012,86(2):224-236.
[29]HUMMELS D,ISHII J,YI K M. The nature and growth of vertical specialization in world trade[J]. Journal of international economics,2001,54(1):75-96.
[30]KOOPMAN R,WANG Z,WEI S J. Estimating domestic content in exports when processing trade is pervasive[J]. Journal of development economics,2012,99(1):178-l89.
[31]KOOPMAN R,WANG Z,WEI S J. Tracing value-added and double counting in gross exports[J]. American economic review,2014,104(2):459-94.
[32]郭庆旺,贾俊雪.中国全要素生产率的估算:1979—2004[J].经济研究,2005(6):51-60.
[33]张小蒂,李晓钟.对我国长三角地区全要素生产率的估算及分析[J].管理世界,2005(11):59-66.
[34]COPELAND B R, TAYLOR M S. North-South trade and the environment[J]. The quarterly journal of economics,1994,109(3):755-787.
[35]BUSSE M. Trade,environmental regulations,and the world trade organization:new empirical evidence[R]. 2004.
[36]吕越,吕云龙.全球价值链嵌入会改善制造业企业的生产效率吗——基于双重稳健-倾向得分加权估计[J].财贸经济,2016(3):109-122.