基于扩展(火用)耗模型的可持续发展水平区域空间差异——以中国31个省市为数据源
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摘要
将区域作为一个以人类生产和消费为中心的社会-经济-自然复合生态系统,构建了一种基于生物物理视角的生态热力学方法,从整体角度对区域的可持续发展水平进行定量评价。该方法囊括了维持复合生态系统运转过程中的自然资源投入、人力资源投入和环境污染损害成本投入等三种要素,完善了可持续发展评价以及绿色GDP核算中人力资源投入和环境成本的价值体现。然后以我国为例,核算了我国31个省市2006—2015年间可持续发展水平的时间动态,并以各省为边界,计算了2015年的区域可持续发展水平差异。计算结果显示:(1)十年间,我国整体上的可持续发展水平在逐步提高,能反映出我国生产率水平的提高和资源利用效率的提高;(2)从要素投入看,自然资源投入仍然占主要,但比例在逐渐降低。环境成本投入比例呈逐步降低趋势,说明环境保护取得了成效。另外,在2010年后,人力资源投入比例增加很快,反映了我国经济发展中劳动力成本上升明显。(3)各省市的计算结果差异较大,在不考虑区域间进出口的情况下,从GDP产出角度,北京的可持续发展水平最高,西藏最低。通过将本文的评价结果与绿色发展指数的评价结果进行比较,发现具有较好的一致性。建立的方法框架是对能值分析方法的扩展和完善,在今后的研究中,还需要继续对该方法框架中没有考虑全面的因素加以考虑,以便于更全面客观地反映区域的可持续发展水平。
Based on the summary of emergy and exergy, an integrated assessment method was established to evaluate regional sustainable development. Three parts included in this method were natural resources, human resources, and environmental cost. A region was regarded as a compound ecosystem combining society, economy, and the environment. It is an improvement of the exergy evaluation method and can be used in the evaluation of sustainable development and green GDP. After the introduction of the assessment method, the extended exergy account of China was calculated. The results showed that:(1) the sustainable development level has gradually improved from 2006 to 2015, which indicates the improvement of China′s resource utilization efficiency;(2) From the perspective of resource, the proportion of natural resource inputs was still the highest, but the ratio has gradually decreased. The proportion of the environmental exergy cost has also decreased. Moreover, the proportion of human resources displayed a rapid increase after 2010. This reflected the increasing labor cost.(3) Without considering interregional import and export, the sustainable development level of Beijing is the highest and Tibet is the lowest in terms of the exergy GDP ratio. In the future, it will be necessary to improve the index of this method to evaluate the sustainable development level.
Based on the summary of emergy and exergy, an integrated assessment method was established to evaluate regional sustainable development. Three parts included in this method were natural resources, human resources, and environmental cost. A region was regarded as a compound ecosystem combining society, economy, and the environment. It is an improvement of the exergy evaluation method and can be used in the evaluation of sustainable development and green GDP. After the introduction of the assessment method, the extended exergy account of China was calculated. The results showed that:(1) the sustainable development level has gradually improved from 2006 to 2015, which indicates the improvement of China′s resource utilization efficiency;(2) From the perspective of resource, the proportion of natural resource inputs was still the highest, but the ratio has gradually decreased. The proportion of the environmental exergy cost has also decreased. Moreover, the proportion of human resources displayed a rapid increase after 2010. This reflected the increasing labor cost.(3) Without considering interregional import and export, the sustainable development level of Beijing is the highest and Tibet is the lowest in terms of the exergy GDP ratio. In the future, it will be necessary to improve the index of this method to evaluate the sustainable development level.
引文
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[10] 马艳梅, 吴玉鸣, 吴柏钧. 长三角地区城镇化可持续发展综合评价——基于熵值法和象限图法. 经济地理, 2015, 35(6): 47- 53.
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[29] Jiang M M, Chen B, Zhou J B, Tao F R, Li Z, Yang Z F, Chen G Q. Emergy account for biomass resource exploitation by agriculture in China. Energy Policy, 2007, 35(9): 4704- 4719.
[30] Geng Y, Zhang P, Ulgiati S, Sarkis J. Emergy analysis of an industrial park: the case of Dalian, China. Science of the Total Environment, 2010, 408(22): 5273- 5283.
[31] Wang L M, Li W D, Li Z. Emergy evaluation of combined heat and power plant eco-industrial park (CHP Plant EIP). Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 2006, 48(1): 56- 70.
[32] Bakshi B R. A thermodynamic framework for ecologically conscious process systems engineering. Computers & Chemical Engineering, 2002, 26(2): 269- 282.
[33] Goedkoop M, Spriensma R. The Eco-indicator 99: A Damage Oriented Method for Life Cycle Impact Assessment. Amersfoort: PRé Consultants B.V., 2000.
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[35] 蓝盛芳, 钦佩, 陆宏芳. 生态经济系统能值分析. 北京: 化学工业出版社, 2002.
[36] Cambell D E, Brandt-Williams S L, Meisch M E A. Environmental Accounting Using Emergy: Evaluation of the State of West Virginia. Narragansett, RI, USA: Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, 2005.
[37] 中国人民共和国国家统计局. 统计数据. http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/zxfb/201712/t20171226_1566827.html. 2017- 12- 26.
[2] 叶潇潇, 赵一飞. 基于聚类分析的长江三角洲港口群可持续发展水平评价. 长江流域资源与环境, 2016, 25(S1): 17- 24.
[3] 黄志烨, 李桂君, 李玉龙, 常远. 基于DPSIR模型的北京市可持续发展评价. 城市发展研究, 2016, 23(9): C20-C24.
[4] 刁丽琼, 廖和平, 秦伟山. 基于能值分析的山西省生态经济系统可持续发展评价. 水土保持通报, 2011, 31(3): 175- 179.
[5] 张建勇, 赵艳玲, 付亚洁, 何厅厅, 田帅帅, 邹玉珠, 刘慧芳. 基于能值-成本的资源型省域绿色GDP核算及可持续发展评价. 中国矿业, 2017, 26(9): 104- 110.
[6] 付桂军, 齐义军. 煤炭资源型区域可持续发展水平比较研究—基于模糊综合评价法的分析. 干旱区资源与环境, 2013, 27(4): 106- 110.
[7] 郝翠, 李洪远, 孟伟庆. 国内外可持续发展评价方法对比分析. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2010, 20(1): 161- 166.
[8] 窦睿音, 刘学敏, 张昱. 基于能值分析的陕西省榆林市绿色GDP动态研究. 自然资源学报, 2016, 31(6): 994- 1003.
[9] 郭慧文, 严力蛟. 城市发展指数和生态足迹在直辖市可持续发展评估中的应用. 生态学报, 2016, 36(14): 4288- 4297.
[10] 马艳梅, 吴玉鸣, 吴柏钧. 长三角地区城镇化可持续发展综合评价——基于熵值法和象限图法. 经济地理, 2015, 35(6): 47- 53.
[11] 董锋, 谭清美, 周德群, 龙如银, 朱佳翔. 资源型城市可持续发展水平评价——以黑龙江省大庆市为例. 资源科学, 2010, 32(8): 1584- 1591.
[12] Birgé H E, Allen C R, Garmestani A S, Pope K L. Adaptive management for ecosystem services. Journal of Environmental Management, 2016, 183: 343- 352.
[13] Costanza R, d′Arge R, de Groot R, Farber S, Grasso M, Hannon B, Limburg K, Naeem S, O′Neill R V, Paruelo J, Raskin R G, Sutton P, van den Belt M. The value of the world′s ecosystem services and natural capital. Nature, 1997, 387(6630): 253- 260.
[14] Farley J, Voinov A. Economics, socio-ecological resilience and ecosystem services. Journal of Environmental Management, 2016, 183: 389- 398.
[15] Capra F. The Web of Life: A New Scientific Understanding of Living Systems. New York: Anchor, 1996.
[16] Carpenter S, Walker B, Anderies M, Abel N. From metaphor to measurement: resilience of what to what? Ecosystems, 2001, 4(8): 765- 781.
[17] Ko J Y, Day J W, Lane R R, Day J N. A comparative evaluation of money-based and energy-based cost-benefit analyses of tertiary municipal wastewater treatment using forested wetlands vs. sand filtration in Louisiana. Ecological Economics, 2004, 49(3): 331- 347.
[18] Odum H T. Environmental Accounting: Emergy and Environmental Decision Making. New York: Wiley, 1996.
[19] Odum H T, Brown M T, Brandt-Williams S. Handbook of Emergy Evaluation: A Compendium of Data for Emergy Computation Issued in a Series of Folios. Folio #1: Introduction and Global Budget. Florida, USA: Center for Environmental Policy, University of Florida, 2000.
[20] J?rgensen S E. Parameters, ecological constraints and exergy. Ecological Modelling, 1992, 62(1/3): 163- 170.
[21] Jawad H, Jaber M Y, Bonney M. The economic order quantity model revisited: an extended exergy accounting approach. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2015, 105: 64- 73.
[22] Brown M T, Ulgiati S. Energy quality, emergy, and transformity: H.T. Odum′s contributions to quantifying and understanding systems. Ecological Modelling, 2004, 178(1/2): 201- 213.
[23] Zhou L, Duan M S, Yu Y D. Exergy and economic analyses of indirect coal-to-liquid technology coupling carbon capture and storage. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2018, 174: 87- 95.
[24] Hau J L, Bakshi B R. Expanding exergy analysis to account for ecosystem products and services. Environmental Science & Technology, 2004, 38(13): 3768- 3777.
[25] Ukidwe N U, Bakshi B R. Thermodynamic accounting of ecosystem contribution to economic sectors with application to 1992 U.S. economy. Environmental Science & Technology, 2004, 38(18): 4810- 4827.
[26] Dong X B, Ulgiati S, Yan M C, Zhang X S, Gao W S. Energy and emergy evaluation of bioethanol production from wheat in Henan Province, China. Energy Policy, 2008, 36(10): 3882- 3892.
[27] Lu H F, Bai Y, Ren H, Campbell D E. Integrated emergy, energy and economic evaluation of rice and vegetable production systems in alluvial paddy fields: implications for agricultural policy in China. Journal of Environmental Management, 2010, 91(12): 2727- 2735.
[28] Li L J, Lu H F, Ren H, Kang W L, Chen F P. Emergy evaluations of three aquaculture systems on wetlands surrounding the pearl river estuary, China. Ecological Indicators, 2011, 11(2): 526- 534.
[29] Jiang M M, Chen B, Zhou J B, Tao F R, Li Z, Yang Z F, Chen G Q. Emergy account for biomass resource exploitation by agriculture in China. Energy Policy, 2007, 35(9): 4704- 4719.
[30] Geng Y, Zhang P, Ulgiati S, Sarkis J. Emergy analysis of an industrial park: the case of Dalian, China. Science of the Total Environment, 2010, 408(22): 5273- 5283.
[31] Wang L M, Li W D, Li Z. Emergy evaluation of combined heat and power plant eco-industrial park (CHP Plant EIP). Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 2006, 48(1): 56- 70.
[32] Bakshi B R. A thermodynamic framework for ecologically conscious process systems engineering. Computers & Chemical Engineering, 2002, 26(2): 269- 282.
[33] Goedkoop M, Spriensma R. The Eco-indicator 99: A Damage Oriented Method for Life Cycle Impact Assessment. Amersfoort: PRé Consultants B.V., 2000.
[34] Goedkoop M, Heijungs R, Huijbregts M, De Schryver A, Struijs J, van Zelm R. ReCiPe 2008-A Life Cycle Impact Assessment Method Which Comprises Harmonized Category Indicators at the Midpoint and the Endpoint Level. University of Leiden, Radboud University Nijmegen, RIVM, Bilthoven, Amersfoort, Netherlands, 2009.
[35] 蓝盛芳, 钦佩, 陆宏芳. 生态经济系统能值分析. 北京: 化学工业出版社, 2002.
[36] Cambell D E, Brandt-Williams S L, Meisch M E A. Environmental Accounting Using Emergy: Evaluation of the State of West Virginia. Narragansett, RI, USA: Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, 2005.
[37] 中国人民共和国国家统计局. 统计数据. http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/zxfb/201712/t20171226_1566827.html. 2017- 12- 26.