基于Fisher判别法的台风暴雨泥石流预测模型
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摘要
对台风暴雨泥石流发生的可能性进行定量预测,有助于减少危险区内的人员伤亡、降低经济损失。以台湾地区南投县陈有兰溪流域的47条泥石流沟为研究对象,从泥石流形成所需的地形地貌、物源和降雨条件中,初步选取台风暴雨泥石流发生的影响因子,包括沟床平均坡度、有效流域面积、形状系数、主沟长度、岩性、崩滑比和平均雨强。根据因子重要性排序结果,选择崩滑比和平均雨强作为模型的预测因子,基于Fisher判别法建立了台风暴雨泥石流预测模型。采用随机取样技术,选取70%的数据用于构建模型,剩余30%的数据用于验证模型。以精确度、准确率、漏报率和误报率指标,定量评价模型的预测效果,并确定最优的预测模型。结果表明:基于Fisher判别法构建的台风暴雨泥石流预测模型,综合考虑了泥石流形成所需的物源条件和降雨条件,弥补了降雨阈值模型仅依靠降雨资料分析的不足,预测效果更好。
Prediction of typhoon-induced debris flow can help to reduce casualties and losses. This study focused on 47 debris flow catchments of the Chenyulan River Watershed in Nantou County,Taiwan,China. Seven variables—mean channel slope,effective drainage area,shape coefficient,channel length,lithology,area ratio of collapses and landslides,and mean rainfall intensity—were selected from the conditioning factors of rainfall-induced debris flow,including geomorphology,loose debris materials and rainfall conditions. According to the importance of these variables,the area ratio of collapses and landslides as well as the mean rainfall intensity were used to construct the predictive model. Random sampling selection was used to divide the dataset into the training and validation datasets(70% and 30% of the dataset,respectively). The former was used to develop the predictive model and the latter to validate the model. Four indicators,namely precision,accuracy,false negative rate,and false position rate,were employed as indexes of quantitative assessment and used to determine the optimal model. The results show that the prediction model of typhoon-induced debris flow based on Fisher discriminant analysis has good prediction performance,and it compensated for the deficiency of rainfall intensity-duration thresholds model that analyze critical rainfall of debris flow based only on rainfall data. A comparison of the predictions of the I-D model and our model indicated that ours had superior prediction performance. The results provide strong technical support for the prediction of rainfall-induced debris flow.
Prediction of typhoon-induced debris flow can help to reduce casualties and losses. This study focused on 47 debris flow catchments of the Chenyulan River Watershed in Nantou County,Taiwan,China. Seven variables—mean channel slope,effective drainage area,shape coefficient,channel length,lithology,area ratio of collapses and landslides,and mean rainfall intensity—were selected from the conditioning factors of rainfall-induced debris flow,including geomorphology,loose debris materials and rainfall conditions. According to the importance of these variables,the area ratio of collapses and landslides as well as the mean rainfall intensity were used to construct the predictive model. Random sampling selection was used to divide the dataset into the training and validation datasets(70% and 30% of the dataset,respectively). The former was used to develop the predictive model and the latter to validate the model. Four indicators,namely precision,accuracy,false negative rate,and false position rate,were employed as indexes of quantitative assessment and used to determine the optimal model. The results show that the prediction model of typhoon-induced debris flow based on Fisher discriminant analysis has good prediction performance,and it compensated for the deficiency of rainfall intensity-duration thresholds model that analyze critical rainfall of debris flow based only on rainfall data. A comparison of the predictions of the I-D model and our model indicated that ours had superior prediction performance. The results provide strong technical support for the prediction of rainfall-induced debris flow.
引文
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[13] NIKOLOPOULOS E I,DESTRO E,BHUIYAN M A E,et al.Evaluation of predictive models for post-fire debris flow occurrence in the western United States[J].Natural Hazards and Earth System Science,2018,18(9):2331-2343.
[14] BEL C,LIéBAULT F,NAVRATIL O,et al.Rainfall control of debris-flow triggering in the Réal Torrent,Southern French Prealps[J].Geomorphology,2017,291:17-32.
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[16] KERN A N,ADDISON P,OOMMEN T,et al.Machine learning based predictive modeling of debris flow probability following wildfire in the intermountain Western United States[J].Mathematical Geosciences,2017,49(6):717-735.
[17] FAN J C,HUANG H Y,LIU C H,et al.Effects of landslide and other physiographic factors on the occurrence probability of debris flows in central Taiwan[J].Environmental Earth Sciences,2015,74(2):1785-1801.
[18] 黄效禹.地文因子对土石流发生机率影响之研究[D].台北:台湾大学,2015.(HUANG X Y.Effects of physiographic factors on the occurrence probability of debris flows[D].Taibei:Taiwan University,2015.(in Chinese))
[19] 林美聆,陈彦澄.应用光达地形资料于莫拉克灾后陈有兰溪流域崩塌与土石流地质敏感地区判释与分析[J].航测及遥测学刊,2014,18(2):129-144.(LIN M L,CHEN Y C.Application of LiDAR on identifications of landslides and debris flow geologically sensitive area of the Chen-Yo-Lan River Basin post Typhoon Morakot[J].Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing,2014,18(2):129-144.(in Chinese))
[20] LIN C W,SHIEH C L,YUAN B D,et al.Impact of Chi-Chi earthquake on the occurrence of landslides and debris flows:example from the Chenyulan River watershed,Nantou,Taiwan[J].Engineering Geology,2004,71(1/2):49- 61.
[21] YU B,LI L,WU Y F,et al.A formation model for debris flows in the Chenyulan River watershed,Taiwan[J].Natural Hazards,2013,68(2):745-762.
[22] 曾圣权.SPOT卫星影像应用于陈有兰溪流域崩塌调查之研究[D].台中:朝阳科技大学,2005.(ZENG S Q.SPOT images applied to the landslide investigations in the watershed of Chen-Yu-Lan River[D].Taizhong:Chaoyang University of Technology,2005.(in Chinese))
[23] 詹钱登,李明熹.土石流发生降雨警戒模式[J].中华水土保持学报,2004,35(3):275-285.(JAN C D,LEE M H.A debris-flow rainfall-based warning model[J].Journal of Chinese Soil Water Conservation,2004,35(3):275-285.(in Chinese))
[24] LIN J W,CHEN C W,PENG C Y.Potential hazard analysis and risk assessment of debris flow by fuzzy modeling[J].Natural hazards,2012,64(1):273-282.
[25] MELO R,ZêZERE J L.Modeling debris flow initiation and run-out in recently burned areas using data-driven methods[J].Natural Hazards,2017,88(3):1373-1407.
[26] TAKAHASHI T.Debris flow on prismatic open channel[J].Journal of the Hydraulics Division,1980,106(3):381-396.
[27] 王虹萍,周天颖.结合层级分析法与模糊理论于土石流潜势评估之研究:以陈有兰溪集水区为例[J].水保技术,2010,5(1):13-22.(WANG H P,CHOU T Y.AHP and fuzzy theory application on debris flow potential assessment:a case study of Chen-Yu-Lan Watershed[J].Journal of Soil and Water Conservation Technology,2010,5(1):13-22.(in Chinese))
[28] YANG Z Y,JIN M,ZHANG Z Y,et al.Classification based on feature extraction for hepatocellular carcinoma diagnosis using high-throughput dna methylation sequencing data[J].Procedia Computer Science,2017,107:412- 417.
[29] BERTRAND M,LIéBAULT F,PIéGAY H.Debris-flow susceptibility of upland catchments[J].Natural Hazards,2013,67(2):497-511.
[30] TANG W J,GONG F,DONG R R,et al.Face recognition based on the fusion of wavelet packet sub-images and Fisher linear discriminant[J].Multimedia Tools and Applications,2017,76(21):22725-22740.
[2] 张楠,方志伟,韩笑,等.近年来我国泥石流灾害时空分布规律及成因分析[J].地学前缘,2018,25(2):299-308.(ZHANG N,FANG Z W,HAN X,et al.The study on temporal and spatial distribution law and cause of debris flow disaster in China in recent years[J].Earth Science Frontiers,2018,25(2):299-308.(in Chinese))
[3] GUZZETTI F,PERUCCACCI S,ROSSI M,et al.The rainfall intensity-duration control of shallow landslides and debris flows:an update[J].Landslides,2008,5(1):3-17.
[4] GIANNECCHINI R,GALANTI Y,AVANZI G D A,et al.Probabilistic rainfall thresholds for triggering debris flows in a human-modified landscape[J].Geomorphology,2016,257:94-107.
[5] MARRA F,NIKOLOPOULOS E I,CREUTIN J D,et al.Space-time organization of debris flows-triggering rainfall and its effect on the identification of the rainfall threshold relationship[J].Journal of Hydrology,2016,541:246-255.
[6] PICIULLO L,GARIANO S L,MELILLO M,et al.Definition and performance of a threshold-based regional early warning model for rainfall-induced landslides[J].Landslides,2017,14(3):995-1008.
[7] GUO X J,CUI P,LI Y.Debris flow warning threshold based on antecedent rainfall:a case study in Jiangjia Ravine,Yunnan,China[J].Journal of Mountain Science,2013,10(2):305-314.
[8] CHEN J C,JAN C D,HUANG W S.Characteristics of rainfall triggering of debris flows in the Chenyulan watershed,Taiwan[J].Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences,2013,13(4):1015-1023.
[9] CHEN J C,JIANG J G,HUANG W S.Probabilistic estimation of debris-flow occurrence after extreme rainfalls[J].International Journal of Environmental Impacts,2018,1(4):473- 481.
[10] SEGONI S,PICIULLO L,GARIANO S L.A review of the recent literature on rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence[J].Landslides,2018,15(8):1483-1501.
[11] 余斌,朱渊,王涛,等.沟床起动型泥石流的10 min降雨预报模型[J].水科学进展,2015,26(3):347-355.(YU B,ZHU Y,WANG T,et al.Research on the 10-minute rainfall prediction model for debris flows[J].Advances in Water Science,2015,26(3):347-355.(in Chinese))
[12] 余斌,朱云波,刘秧.坡面泥石流降雨预报模型[J].水科学进展,2017,28(6):839-848.(YU B,ZHU Y B,LIU Y.Prediction model of hillslope debris flows[J].Advances in Water Science,2017,28(6):839-848.(in Chinese))
[13] NIKOLOPOULOS E I,DESTRO E,BHUIYAN M A E,et al.Evaluation of predictive models for post-fire debris flow occurrence in the western United States[J].Natural Hazards and Earth System Science,2018,18(9):2331-2343.
[14] BEL C,LIéBAULT F,NAVRATIL O,et al.Rainfall control of debris-flow triggering in the Réal Torrent,Southern French Prealps[J].Geomorphology,2017,291:17-32.
[15] 王文川,吴海波,赵晓慎,等.基于Fisher判别分析法的泥石流预报模型研究[J].水土保持通报,2011,31(6):104-107.(WANG W C,WU H B,ZHAO X S,et al.Forecasting model of debris flow based on Fisher discrimination analysis method[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2011,31(6):104-107.(in Chinese))
[16] KERN A N,ADDISON P,OOMMEN T,et al.Machine learning based predictive modeling of debris flow probability following wildfire in the intermountain Western United States[J].Mathematical Geosciences,2017,49(6):717-735.
[17] FAN J C,HUANG H Y,LIU C H,et al.Effects of landslide and other physiographic factors on the occurrence probability of debris flows in central Taiwan[J].Environmental Earth Sciences,2015,74(2):1785-1801.
[18] 黄效禹.地文因子对土石流发生机率影响之研究[D].台北:台湾大学,2015.(HUANG X Y.Effects of physiographic factors on the occurrence probability of debris flows[D].Taibei:Taiwan University,2015.(in Chinese))
[19] 林美聆,陈彦澄.应用光达地形资料于莫拉克灾后陈有兰溪流域崩塌与土石流地质敏感地区判释与分析[J].航测及遥测学刊,2014,18(2):129-144.(LIN M L,CHEN Y C.Application of LiDAR on identifications of landslides and debris flow geologically sensitive area of the Chen-Yo-Lan River Basin post Typhoon Morakot[J].Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing,2014,18(2):129-144.(in Chinese))
[20] LIN C W,SHIEH C L,YUAN B D,et al.Impact of Chi-Chi earthquake on the occurrence of landslides and debris flows:example from the Chenyulan River watershed,Nantou,Taiwan[J].Engineering Geology,2004,71(1/2):49- 61.
[21] YU B,LI L,WU Y F,et al.A formation model for debris flows in the Chenyulan River watershed,Taiwan[J].Natural Hazards,2013,68(2):745-762.
[22] 曾圣权.SPOT卫星影像应用于陈有兰溪流域崩塌调查之研究[D].台中:朝阳科技大学,2005.(ZENG S Q.SPOT images applied to the landslide investigations in the watershed of Chen-Yu-Lan River[D].Taizhong:Chaoyang University of Technology,2005.(in Chinese))
[23] 詹钱登,李明熹.土石流发生降雨警戒模式[J].中华水土保持学报,2004,35(3):275-285.(JAN C D,LEE M H.A debris-flow rainfall-based warning model[J].Journal of Chinese Soil Water Conservation,2004,35(3):275-285.(in Chinese))
[24] LIN J W,CHEN C W,PENG C Y.Potential hazard analysis and risk assessment of debris flow by fuzzy modeling[J].Natural hazards,2012,64(1):273-282.
[25] MELO R,ZêZERE J L.Modeling debris flow initiation and run-out in recently burned areas using data-driven methods[J].Natural Hazards,2017,88(3):1373-1407.
[26] TAKAHASHI T.Debris flow on prismatic open channel[J].Journal of the Hydraulics Division,1980,106(3):381-396.
[27] 王虹萍,周天颖.结合层级分析法与模糊理论于土石流潜势评估之研究:以陈有兰溪集水区为例[J].水保技术,2010,5(1):13-22.(WANG H P,CHOU T Y.AHP and fuzzy theory application on debris flow potential assessment:a case study of Chen-Yu-Lan Watershed[J].Journal of Soil and Water Conservation Technology,2010,5(1):13-22.(in Chinese))
[28] YANG Z Y,JIN M,ZHANG Z Y,et al.Classification based on feature extraction for hepatocellular carcinoma diagnosis using high-throughput dna methylation sequencing data[J].Procedia Computer Science,2017,107:412- 417.
[29] BERTRAND M,LIéBAULT F,PIéGAY H.Debris-flow susceptibility of upland catchments[J].Natural Hazards,2013,67(2):497-511.
[30] TANG W J,GONG F,DONG R R,et al.Face recognition based on the fusion of wavelet packet sub-images and Fisher linear discriminant[J].Multimedia Tools and Applications,2017,76(21):22725-22740.