地形对台风Megi(2010)过岛阶段路径偏折影响的数值研究
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摘要
采用谱逼近方法减小大尺度环境场模拟偏差,通过地形敏感性试验,研究吕宋岛山脉地形高度对台风Megi(2010)过岛阶段路径偏折的影响。模拟试验表明,谱逼近700 hPa高度层以上天气尺度风场分量的数值试验不仅能够反映大尺度环流对台风路径的引导作用,同时保留了中低层环流对地形影响的响应,较为准确地反映了Megi靠近和登陆吕宋岛过程中的持续南压过程,以及离开吕宋岛后的突然北折过程。在此模拟基础上,通过对地形高度敏感性试验结果诊断和影响区域空气质点进行后向轨迹分析,表明在台风向山脉靠近过程中,台风外围和内核环流均受地形影响,迎风坡存在明显气流辐合,有利于台风流场与南北向山脉之间出现北风急流和轨迹汇聚带,从而产生狭管效应,造成台风移动路径南折;而台风过山后,不仅受到地形次生低压涡旋的吸引,其东侧同样出现以南风急流和轨迹汇聚为特征的狭管效应,有利于台风路径向北偏折。
In this study,numerical simulation and diagnostic analysis using model output data are conducted,in order to investigate the mechanism of track deflection of Typhoon M egi( 2010) after its landing on Luzon Island.Next,the spectral nudging technique is adopted to reduce the error of the simulated large-scale environmental field. Based on the simulation results of the spectral nudging tests,terrain sensitivity tests are then conducted by varying the terrain height of Luzon Island.The temporal evolution of circulation structure and variable field are diagnosed to investigate the impact mechanism of high terrain on the typhoon track deflection.Finally,the southw ard movement w hen the typhoon approaches and lands on the island is displayed.The simulation results indicate that the simulation typhoon track of SNV700,w hich uses the configuration of nudging synoptic-scale w ind component above 700 hPa,can reproduce the southw ard movement w hen the typhoon passes by the island and suddenly turns north after leaving the island,by reflecting both the steering role of large-scale environmental flow and the response of low erlevel flow to the terrain.Based on the simulation results of the spectral nudging tests,terrain sensitivity tests are then conducted by varying the terrain height of Luzon Island.When the terrain height is reduced to zero,the simulated typhoon track is in correlation w ith the steering flow.The impact of high terrain leads the typhoon to turn to south( north) w hen the typhoon approaches( leaves) the high terrain,and the deflection degree increases as the terrain height increases.The results of the terrain sensitivity tests are diagnosed,and backw ard trajectory analysis of the affected areas is conducted,so as to investigate the temporal evolution of circulation structure and variable field w hen the typhoon approaches and crosses the island.The results show that the convergence center occurs in both the w indw ard and leew ard slopes,thus contributing to the gale center in these areas. In addition,a positive vorticity area occurs in the leew ard slope,thereby indicating that secondary depression is induced,w hich appeals to the typhoon.M eanw hile,the outer and inner circulations of the typhoon are affected by the high terrain. The channeling effect contributes to the gale centers and confluent trajectories betw een the high terrain and typhoon center.The north( south) low-level jet in the w indw ard( leew ard) slope induced by the channeling effect leads the typhoon tow ard the south( north).
In this study,numerical simulation and diagnostic analysis using model output data are conducted,in order to investigate the mechanism of track deflection of Typhoon M egi( 2010) after its landing on Luzon Island.Next,the spectral nudging technique is adopted to reduce the error of the simulated large-scale environmental field. Based on the simulation results of the spectral nudging tests,terrain sensitivity tests are then conducted by varying the terrain height of Luzon Island.The temporal evolution of circulation structure and variable field are diagnosed to investigate the impact mechanism of high terrain on the typhoon track deflection.Finally,the southw ard movement w hen the typhoon approaches and lands on the island is displayed.The simulation results indicate that the simulation typhoon track of SNV700,w hich uses the configuration of nudging synoptic-scale w ind component above 700 hPa,can reproduce the southw ard movement w hen the typhoon passes by the island and suddenly turns north after leaving the island,by reflecting both the steering role of large-scale environmental flow and the response of low erlevel flow to the terrain.Based on the simulation results of the spectral nudging tests,terrain sensitivity tests are then conducted by varying the terrain height of Luzon Island.When the terrain height is reduced to zero,the simulated typhoon track is in correlation w ith the steering flow.The impact of high terrain leads the typhoon to turn to south( north) w hen the typhoon approaches( leaves) the high terrain,and the deflection degree increases as the terrain height increases.The results of the terrain sensitivity tests are diagnosed,and backw ard trajectory analysis of the affected areas is conducted,so as to investigate the temporal evolution of circulation structure and variable field w hen the typhoon approaches and crosses the island.The results show that the convergence center occurs in both the w indw ard and leew ard slopes,thus contributing to the gale center in these areas. In addition,a positive vorticity area occurs in the leew ard slope,thereby indicating that secondary depression is induced,w hich appeals to the typhoon.M eanw hile,the outer and inner circulations of the typhoon are affected by the high terrain. The channeling effect contributes to the gale centers and confluent trajectories betw een the high terrain and typhoon center.The north( south) low-level jet in the w indw ard( leew ard) slope induced by the channeling effect leads the typhoon tow ard the south( north).
引文
Bender M A,Tuleya R E,Kurihara Y,1987.A numerical study of the effect of island terrain on tropical cyclones[J].Mon Wea Rev,115(1):130-155.
蔡菁,吴立广,赖巧珍,等,2017.台风“苏拉”登陆福建后降水的非对称成因分析[J].大气科学学报,40(6):814-822.Cai J,Wu L G,Lai Q Z,et al.,2017.Analysis of the precipitation asymmetries of Typhoon saola after its landfall on Fujian Province[J].Trans Atmos Sci,40(6):814-822.(in Chinese).
Cha D H,Lee D K,2009.Reduction of systematic errors in regional climate simulations of the summer monsoon over East Asia and the Western North Pacific by applying the spectral nudging technique[J].J Geophys Res,114(D14):D14108.
陈有利,朱宪春,胡波,等,2018.基于BP神经网络的宁波市台风灾情预估模型研究[J].大气科学学报,41(5):668-675.Chen Y L,Zhu X C,Hu B,et al.,2018.Investigate on the pre-assessment of typhoon disaster in Ningbo based on BP neural network[J].Trans Atmos Sci,41(5):668-675.(in Chinese).
Galarneau T J Jr,Davis C A,2013.Diagnosing forecast errors in tropical cyclone motion[J].Mon Wea Rev,141(2):405-430.
Huang Y H,Wu C C,Wang Y Q,2011.The influence of island topography on typhoon track deflection[J].Mon Wea Rev,139(6):1708-1727.
Jian G J,Wu C C,2008.A numerical study of the track deflection of supertyphoon haitang (2005) prior to its landfall in Taiwan[J].Mon Wea Rev,136(2):598-615.
Lin Y L,1993.Orographic effects on airflow and mesoscale weather systems over Taiwan[J].Terr Atmos Ocean Sci,4(4):381.
陆晓婕,董昌明,李刚,2018.1951—2015年进入东海的台风频数及登陆点的变化[J].大气科学学报,41(4):433-440.Lu X J,Dong C M,Li G,2018.Variations of typhoon frequency and landfall position in East China sea from 1951 to 2015[J].Trans Atmos Sci,41(4):433-440.(in Chinese).
孟智勇,徐祥德,陈联寿,1998.台湾岛地形诱生次级环流系统对热带气旋异常运动的影响机制[J].大气科学,22(2):156-158.Meng Z Y,Xu X D,Chen L S,1998.Mechansism of the impact of the cyclone system induced by the Taiwan island topography on tropical cyclone unusual motion[J].Scientia Atmospherica Sinica,22(2):156-158.(in Chinese)
Qian C H,Zhang F Q,Green B W,et al.,2013.Probabilistic evaluation of the dynamics and prediction of supertyphoon megi (2010)[J].Wea Forecasting,28(6):1562-1577.
Rappaport E N,Franklin J L,Avila L A,et al.,2009.Advances and challenges at the national hurricane center[J].Wea Forecasting,24(2):395-419.
Shi W L,Fei J F,Huang X G,et al.,2014.A numerical study on the combined effect of midlatitude and low-latitude systems on the abrupt track deflection of Typhoon megi (2010)[J].Mon Wea Rev,142(7):2483-2501.
Tang J P,Song S,Wu J,2010.Impacts of the spectral nudging technique on simulation of the East Asian summer monsoon[J].Theor Appl Climatol,101(1/2):41-51.
von Storch H,Langenberg H,Feser F,2000.A spectral nudging technique for dynamical downscaling purposes[J].Mon Wea Rev,128(10):3664-3673.
Waldron K M,Paegle J,Horel J D,1996.Sensitivity of a spectrally filtered and nudged limited-area model to outer model options[J].Mon Wea Rev,124(3):529-547.
Wang H,Wang Y Q,Xu H M,2013.Improving simulation of a tropical cyclone using dynamical initialization and large-scale spectral nudging:A case study of Typhoon Megi (2010)[J].Acta Meteor Sinica,27(4):455-475.
王海龙,吴新桥,黄增浩,等,2018.超强台风“威马逊”登陆期间近地层风速变化特征分析[J].热带气象学报,34(3):297-304.Wang H L,Wu X Q,Huang Z H,et al.,2018.Study on the boundary layer wind variation characteristics of super-typhoon rammasun during landing on Xuwen county[J].J Trop Meteor,34(3):297-304.(in Chinese).
王晓峰,许晓林,杨续超,等,2017.数值模式对强台风“菲特”登陆期间预报能力评述[J].大气科学学报,40(5):609-618.Wang X F,Xu X L,Yang X C,et al.,2017.The NWP models' evaluation of landfall processes of the strong typhoon Fitow[J].Trans Atmos Sci,40(5):609-618.(in Chinese).
王咏青,蔡敏敏,张秀年,2018.台风“珍珠”(2006)螺旋雨带发展机制的数值模拟研究[J].大气科学学报,41(6):786-796.Wang Y Q,Cai M M,Zhang X N,2018.Numerical simulation of development mechanism of Typhoon Chanchu(2006)spiral rainbelts[J].Trans Atmos Sci,41(6):786-796.(in Chinese).
许娈,崔晓鹏,高守亭,等,2015.台风“鲇鱼”(1013)路径突变过程的成因分析[J].大气科学学报,38(5):658-669.Xu L,Cui X P,Gao S T,et al.,2015.Cause analysis of sudden track change of Typhoon Megi(1013)[J].Trans Atmos Sci,38(5):658-669.(in Chinese).
许映龙,张玲,高拴柱,2010.我国台风预报业务的现状及思考[J].气象,36(7):43-49.Xu Y L,Zhang L,Gao S Z,2010.The advances and discussions on China operational typhoon forecasting[J].Meteor Mon,36(7):43-49.(in Chinese).
Yeh T C,Elsberry R L,1993.Interaction of typhoons with the Taiwan orography.part I:upstream track deflections[J].Mon Wea Rev,121(12):3193-3212.
蔡菁,吴立广,赖巧珍,等,2017.台风“苏拉”登陆福建后降水的非对称成因分析[J].大气科学学报,40(6):814-822.Cai J,Wu L G,Lai Q Z,et al.,2017.Analysis of the precipitation asymmetries of Typhoon saola after its landfall on Fujian Province[J].Trans Atmos Sci,40(6):814-822.(in Chinese).
Cha D H,Lee D K,2009.Reduction of systematic errors in regional climate simulations of the summer monsoon over East Asia and the Western North Pacific by applying the spectral nudging technique[J].J Geophys Res,114(D14):D14108.
陈有利,朱宪春,胡波,等,2018.基于BP神经网络的宁波市台风灾情预估模型研究[J].大气科学学报,41(5):668-675.Chen Y L,Zhu X C,Hu B,et al.,2018.Investigate on the pre-assessment of typhoon disaster in Ningbo based on BP neural network[J].Trans Atmos Sci,41(5):668-675.(in Chinese).
Galarneau T J Jr,Davis C A,2013.Diagnosing forecast errors in tropical cyclone motion[J].Mon Wea Rev,141(2):405-430.
Huang Y H,Wu C C,Wang Y Q,2011.The influence of island topography on typhoon track deflection[J].Mon Wea Rev,139(6):1708-1727.
Jian G J,Wu C C,2008.A numerical study of the track deflection of supertyphoon haitang (2005) prior to its landfall in Taiwan[J].Mon Wea Rev,136(2):598-615.
Lin Y L,1993.Orographic effects on airflow and mesoscale weather systems over Taiwan[J].Terr Atmos Ocean Sci,4(4):381.
陆晓婕,董昌明,李刚,2018.1951—2015年进入东海的台风频数及登陆点的变化[J].大气科学学报,41(4):433-440.Lu X J,Dong C M,Li G,2018.Variations of typhoon frequency and landfall position in East China sea from 1951 to 2015[J].Trans Atmos Sci,41(4):433-440.(in Chinese).
孟智勇,徐祥德,陈联寿,1998.台湾岛地形诱生次级环流系统对热带气旋异常运动的影响机制[J].大气科学,22(2):156-158.Meng Z Y,Xu X D,Chen L S,1998.Mechansism of the impact of the cyclone system induced by the Taiwan island topography on tropical cyclone unusual motion[J].Scientia Atmospherica Sinica,22(2):156-158.(in Chinese)
Qian C H,Zhang F Q,Green B W,et al.,2013.Probabilistic evaluation of the dynamics and prediction of supertyphoon megi (2010)[J].Wea Forecasting,28(6):1562-1577.
Rappaport E N,Franklin J L,Avila L A,et al.,2009.Advances and challenges at the national hurricane center[J].Wea Forecasting,24(2):395-419.
Shi W L,Fei J F,Huang X G,et al.,2014.A numerical study on the combined effect of midlatitude and low-latitude systems on the abrupt track deflection of Typhoon megi (2010)[J].Mon Wea Rev,142(7):2483-2501.
Tang J P,Song S,Wu J,2010.Impacts of the spectral nudging technique on simulation of the East Asian summer monsoon[J].Theor Appl Climatol,101(1/2):41-51.
von Storch H,Langenberg H,Feser F,2000.A spectral nudging technique for dynamical downscaling purposes[J].Mon Wea Rev,128(10):3664-3673.
Waldron K M,Paegle J,Horel J D,1996.Sensitivity of a spectrally filtered and nudged limited-area model to outer model options[J].Mon Wea Rev,124(3):529-547.
Wang H,Wang Y Q,Xu H M,2013.Improving simulation of a tropical cyclone using dynamical initialization and large-scale spectral nudging:A case study of Typhoon Megi (2010)[J].Acta Meteor Sinica,27(4):455-475.
王海龙,吴新桥,黄增浩,等,2018.超强台风“威马逊”登陆期间近地层风速变化特征分析[J].热带气象学报,34(3):297-304.Wang H L,Wu X Q,Huang Z H,et al.,2018.Study on the boundary layer wind variation characteristics of super-typhoon rammasun during landing on Xuwen county[J].J Trop Meteor,34(3):297-304.(in Chinese).
王晓峰,许晓林,杨续超,等,2017.数值模式对强台风“菲特”登陆期间预报能力评述[J].大气科学学报,40(5):609-618.Wang X F,Xu X L,Yang X C,et al.,2017.The NWP models' evaluation of landfall processes of the strong typhoon Fitow[J].Trans Atmos Sci,40(5):609-618.(in Chinese).
王咏青,蔡敏敏,张秀年,2018.台风“珍珠”(2006)螺旋雨带发展机制的数值模拟研究[J].大气科学学报,41(6):786-796.Wang Y Q,Cai M M,Zhang X N,2018.Numerical simulation of development mechanism of Typhoon Chanchu(2006)spiral rainbelts[J].Trans Atmos Sci,41(6):786-796.(in Chinese).
许娈,崔晓鹏,高守亭,等,2015.台风“鲇鱼”(1013)路径突变过程的成因分析[J].大气科学学报,38(5):658-669.Xu L,Cui X P,Gao S T,et al.,2015.Cause analysis of sudden track change of Typhoon Megi(1013)[J].Trans Atmos Sci,38(5):658-669.(in Chinese).
许映龙,张玲,高拴柱,2010.我国台风预报业务的现状及思考[J].气象,36(7):43-49.Xu Y L,Zhang L,Gao S Z,2010.The advances and discussions on China operational typhoon forecasting[J].Meteor Mon,36(7):43-49.(in Chinese).
Yeh T C,Elsberry R L,1993.Interaction of typhoons with the Taiwan orography.part I:upstream track deflections[J].Mon Wea Rev,121(12):3193-3212.