禀赋特征、外部性与农业生产集聚:基于全国31省的证据
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摘要
在农业资源不断匮乏背景下,我国农业表现出生产集聚现象,从集聚效应视角看,农业生产集聚的形成是资源禀赋、外部性因素互相作用的结果。本文系统梳理了资源禀赋特征、外部性条件与农业生产集聚之间内在机制,并利用我国1996～2015年31省20年面板数据,通过固定效应模型和系统广义矩估计等多种研究方法进行验证,通过理论分析和回归分析发现:(1)农业资源禀赋中农业劳动力、农业资本存量、农业技术水平和耕地资源对生产集聚水平的提高具有显著的促进作用。而外部性条件中自然灾害和地形对农业生产集聚水平具有显著的制约作用。(2)从影响趋势上来看,农业耕地数量、农业技术水平对农业生产集聚水平的影响表现出"U"型发展趋势,而农业劳动力数量和农业资本存量表现出倒"U"型发现趋势。
Under the background of the shortage of agricultural resources, China's agriculture shows the phenomenon of production agglomeration. From the perspective of agglomeration effect, the formation of agricultural production agglomeration is the result of the interaction of resource endowment and external factors. This paper systematically combs the intrinsic mechanism between resource endowment characteristics, externalities and agricultural production agglomeration, and uses panel data of 31 provinces in China from 1996 to 2015 to process empirical data by means of fixed effect model and generalized moment estimation. Through theoretical analysis and regression analysis, it is found that:(1) agricultural capital Agricultural labor force, agricultural capital stock, agricultural technology level and cultivated land resources have a significant role in promoting the level of production agglomeration. However, natural disasters and topography play a significant role in restricting the level of agricultural production.(2) From the impact of the trend, the number of agricultural land, agricultural technology level on the level of agricultural production concentration showed a "U" type of development trend. The number of agricultural labor force and agricultural capital stock showed a trend of "U".
Under the background of the shortage of agricultural resources, China's agriculture shows the phenomenon of production agglomeration. From the perspective of agglomeration effect, the formation of agricultural production agglomeration is the result of the interaction of resource endowment and external factors. This paper systematically combs the intrinsic mechanism between resource endowment characteristics, externalities and agricultural production agglomeration, and uses panel data of 31 provinces in China from 1996 to 2015 to process empirical data by means of fixed effect model and generalized moment estimation. Through theoretical analysis and regression analysis, it is found that:(1) agricultural capital Agricultural labor force, agricultural capital stock, agricultural technology level and cultivated land resources have a significant role in promoting the level of production agglomeration. However, natural disasters and topography play a significant role in restricting the level of agricultural production.(2) From the impact of the trend, the number of agricultural land, agricultural technology level on the level of agricultural production concentration showed a "U" type of development trend. The number of agricultural labor force and agricultural capital stock showed a trend of "U".
引文
[1] 郑风田,程郁.从农业产业化到农业产业区——竞争型农业产业化发展的可行性分析[J].管理世界,2005(7):64-73,93.ZHENG F T,CHENG Y.Feasibility analysis of competitive agricultural industrialization from agricultural industrialization to agricultural industrial zone[J].Managing the World,2005(7):64-73,93.
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[3] 张哲晰,穆月英.空间视角下农业产业集聚的增收效应研究——基于蔬菜专业村的实证[J].农业技术经济,2018(7):19-32.ZHANG Z X,MU Y Y.The income-increasing effect of agricultural industry agglomeration from the space perspective:Based on the empirical study of vegetable specialized villages[J].Agricultural Technology Economy,2018(7):19-32.
[4] MAPEMBA L D,ASSA M M,MANGO N.Farm household production efficiency in Southern Malawi:An efficiency decomposition approach[J].Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development,2013,4(3):236-245.
[5] 唐荣莉,姚雄,王春萍,等.基于空间统计的重庆市水稻生产地理集聚时空演变[J].中国生态农业学报,2018,26(7):958-970.TANG R L,YAO X,WANG C P,et al.Spatial and temporal evolution of geographical agglomeration of rice production in Chongqing based on spatial statistics[J].Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture,2018,26(7):958-970.
[6] 邓宗兵,封永刚,张俊亮,等.中国种植业地理集聚的时空特征、演进趋势及效应分析[J].中国农业科学,2013,46(22):4816-4828.DENG Z B,FENG Y G,ZHANG J L,et al .Spatial and temporal characteristics,evolution trend and effect analysis of geographical agglomeration of Chinese planting industry[J].Agricultural Science of China,2013,46(22):4816-4828.
[7] 高帆.中国农业生产率提高的优先序及政策选择[J].经济理论与经济管理,2008(8):12-19.GAO F.Priorities and policy choices for improving China's agricultural productivity[J].Economic Theory and Management,2008(8):12-19.
[8] FAN C C,SCOTT A J.Industrial agglomeration and development:a survey of economic issues in East Asia and a statistical analysis of Chinese regions[J].Economic Geography,2003(79):295-319.
[9] 姜长云.中国粮食安全的现状与前景[J].经济研究参考,2012(40):12-35.JIANG C Y.Present situation and prospect of food security in China[J].Reference for Economic Research,2012(40):12-35.
[10] 肖卫东.中国种植业地理集聚:时空特征、变化趋势及影响因素[J].中国农村经济,2012(5):19-31.XIAO W D.Geographical agglomeration of planting industry in China:Spatio-temporal characteristics,trends and influencing factors[J].Rural Economy of China,2012(5):19-31.
[11] 贾兴梅,李平.农业集聚度变动特征及其与农业经济增长的关系——我国12类农作物空间布局变化的实证检验[J].中国农业大学学报,2014,19(1):209-217.JIA X M ,LI P.Characteristics of agricultural agglomeration degree change and its relation with agricultural economic growth:An empirical test of the spatial distribution change of 12 crops in China[J].Journal of China Agricultural University,2014,19(1):209-217.
[12] COLIN A CARTTER,BRYAN L.Regional specialization of China’s agriculture production[J].American Journal of Agricutend Ecomonics,2002,84;749-753.
[13] HYEON C,BYUNG W.Agro-industry cluster development in five transition economics[J].Journal of Rural Development,2006,29:85-119
[14] CHEN P C,YU M M,CHANG C C,et al.Total factor productivity growth in China's agricultural sector[J].China Economic Review,2008,19(4):580-593
[15] 陶雅,赵丹丹.生产集聚、农业机械与农业现代化:来自全国29个省份的证据[J].江苏农业科学,2018,46(17):336-340.TAO Y,ZHAO D D.Production agglomeration,agricultural machinery and agricultural modernization:Evidence from 29 provinces[J].Jiangsu Agricultural Science,2018,46(17):336-340.
[16] 杨勇,范远江.“黄箱”政策的农业增收效果:以粮食作物为例[J].农业经济问题,2012,33(4):10-17,110.YANG Y,FAN Y J.Agricultural income increase effect of "Yellow Box" policy:Taking food crops as an example[J].Agricultural Economic Issues,2012,33(4):10-17,110.
[17] 林万龙,孙翠清.农业机械私人投资的影响因素:基于省级层面数据的探讨[J].中国农村经济,2007(9):25-32.LIN W L,SUN C Q.Influencing factors of private investment in agricultural machinery:based on provincial level data[J].China’s Rural Economy,2007(9):25-32.
[18] 侯方安.农业机械化推进机制的影响因素分析及政策启示——兼论耕地细碎化经营方式对农业机械化的影响[J].中国农村观察,2008(5):42-48.HOU F A.Analysis of the influencing factors of the promotion mechanism of agricultural mechanization and policy enlightenment:Also on the impact of land fragmentation on agricultural mechanization[J].China Rural Observation,2008(5):42-48.
[19] 纪月清,钟甫宁.农业经营户农机持有决策研究[J].农业技术经济,2011(5):20-24.JI Y Q,ZHONG F N.Decision-making research on agricultural machinery holdings of agricultural operators[J].Agricultural Technology Economy,2011(5):20-24.
[20] 陈甜,肖海峰.中国粮食作物地理集聚的时空演化及效应分析[J].农业经济与管理,2014(4):35-41.CHEN T,XIAO H F.Spatial-temporal evolution and effect analysis of geographical agglomeration of grain crops in China[J].Agricultural economy and management,2014(4):35-41.
[21] 杜建军,张军伟,邵帅.供给侧改革背景下中国农业产业集聚的形成演变研究[J].财贸研究,2017,28(5):33-46,99.DU J J,ZHANG J W,SHAO S.Study on the formation and evolution of agricultural industry agglomeration in China under the background of supply-side reform[J].Finance and Trade Research,2017,28(5):33-46,99.
[22] 陈宝峰,白人朴,刘广利.影响山西省农机化水平的多因素逐步回归分析[J].中国农业大学学报,2005(4):115-118.CHEN B F ,BAI R P,LIU G L .Stepwise regression analysis of multiple factors affecting the level of Agricultural mechanization in Shanxi Province[J].Journal of China Agricultural University,2005(4):115-118.
① 根据地理区域划分,将我国分为东中西3个地区,西部分别包括陕西、甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆、四川、重庆、云南、贵州、西藏.东部分别包括辽宁、天津、北京、河北、山东、江苏、上海、浙江、福建、广东、广西、海南.中部地区分别包括山西、内蒙古、吉林、黑龙江、安徽、江西、河南、湖北和湖南.
[2] GIBBSRM,BERNAT GA.Rural ndustry clusters raise local earnings[J].Rural Development Perspectives,1997(12):18-25.
[3] 张哲晰,穆月英.空间视角下农业产业集聚的增收效应研究——基于蔬菜专业村的实证[J].农业技术经济,2018(7):19-32.ZHANG Z X,MU Y Y.The income-increasing effect of agricultural industry agglomeration from the space perspective:Based on the empirical study of vegetable specialized villages[J].Agricultural Technology Economy,2018(7):19-32.
[4] MAPEMBA L D,ASSA M M,MANGO N.Farm household production efficiency in Southern Malawi:An efficiency decomposition approach[J].Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development,2013,4(3):236-245.
[5] 唐荣莉,姚雄,王春萍,等.基于空间统计的重庆市水稻生产地理集聚时空演变[J].中国生态农业学报,2018,26(7):958-970.TANG R L,YAO X,WANG C P,et al.Spatial and temporal evolution of geographical agglomeration of rice production in Chongqing based on spatial statistics[J].Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture,2018,26(7):958-970.
[6] 邓宗兵,封永刚,张俊亮,等.中国种植业地理集聚的时空特征、演进趋势及效应分析[J].中国农业科学,2013,46(22):4816-4828.DENG Z B,FENG Y G,ZHANG J L,et al .Spatial and temporal characteristics,evolution trend and effect analysis of geographical agglomeration of Chinese planting industry[J].Agricultural Science of China,2013,46(22):4816-4828.
[7] 高帆.中国农业生产率提高的优先序及政策选择[J].经济理论与经济管理,2008(8):12-19.GAO F.Priorities and policy choices for improving China's agricultural productivity[J].Economic Theory and Management,2008(8):12-19.
[8] FAN C C,SCOTT A J.Industrial agglomeration and development:a survey of economic issues in East Asia and a statistical analysis of Chinese regions[J].Economic Geography,2003(79):295-319.
[9] 姜长云.中国粮食安全的现状与前景[J].经济研究参考,2012(40):12-35.JIANG C Y.Present situation and prospect of food security in China[J].Reference for Economic Research,2012(40):12-35.
[10] 肖卫东.中国种植业地理集聚:时空特征、变化趋势及影响因素[J].中国农村经济,2012(5):19-31.XIAO W D.Geographical agglomeration of planting industry in China:Spatio-temporal characteristics,trends and influencing factors[J].Rural Economy of China,2012(5):19-31.
[11] 贾兴梅,李平.农业集聚度变动特征及其与农业经济增长的关系——我国12类农作物空间布局变化的实证检验[J].中国农业大学学报,2014,19(1):209-217.JIA X M ,LI P.Characteristics of agricultural agglomeration degree change and its relation with agricultural economic growth:An empirical test of the spatial distribution change of 12 crops in China[J].Journal of China Agricultural University,2014,19(1):209-217.
[12] COLIN A CARTTER,BRYAN L.Regional specialization of China’s agriculture production[J].American Journal of Agricutend Ecomonics,2002,84;749-753.
[13] HYEON C,BYUNG W.Agro-industry cluster development in five transition economics[J].Journal of Rural Development,2006,29:85-119
[14] CHEN P C,YU M M,CHANG C C,et al.Total factor productivity growth in China's agricultural sector[J].China Economic Review,2008,19(4):580-593
[15] 陶雅,赵丹丹.生产集聚、农业机械与农业现代化:来自全国29个省份的证据[J].江苏农业科学,2018,46(17):336-340.TAO Y,ZHAO D D.Production agglomeration,agricultural machinery and agricultural modernization:Evidence from 29 provinces[J].Jiangsu Agricultural Science,2018,46(17):336-340.
[16] 杨勇,范远江.“黄箱”政策的农业增收效果:以粮食作物为例[J].农业经济问题,2012,33(4):10-17,110.YANG Y,FAN Y J.Agricultural income increase effect of "Yellow Box" policy:Taking food crops as an example[J].Agricultural Economic Issues,2012,33(4):10-17,110.
[17] 林万龙,孙翠清.农业机械私人投资的影响因素:基于省级层面数据的探讨[J].中国农村经济,2007(9):25-32.LIN W L,SUN C Q.Influencing factors of private investment in agricultural machinery:based on provincial level data[J].China’s Rural Economy,2007(9):25-32.
[18] 侯方安.农业机械化推进机制的影响因素分析及政策启示——兼论耕地细碎化经营方式对农业机械化的影响[J].中国农村观察,2008(5):42-48.HOU F A.Analysis of the influencing factors of the promotion mechanism of agricultural mechanization and policy enlightenment:Also on the impact of land fragmentation on agricultural mechanization[J].China Rural Observation,2008(5):42-48.
[19] 纪月清,钟甫宁.农业经营户农机持有决策研究[J].农业技术经济,2011(5):20-24.JI Y Q,ZHONG F N.Decision-making research on agricultural machinery holdings of agricultural operators[J].Agricultural Technology Economy,2011(5):20-24.
[20] 陈甜,肖海峰.中国粮食作物地理集聚的时空演化及效应分析[J].农业经济与管理,2014(4):35-41.CHEN T,XIAO H F.Spatial-temporal evolution and effect analysis of geographical agglomeration of grain crops in China[J].Agricultural economy and management,2014(4):35-41.
[21] 杜建军,张军伟,邵帅.供给侧改革背景下中国农业产业集聚的形成演变研究[J].财贸研究,2017,28(5):33-46,99.DU J J,ZHANG J W,SHAO S.Study on the formation and evolution of agricultural industry agglomeration in China under the background of supply-side reform[J].Finance and Trade Research,2017,28(5):33-46,99.
[22] 陈宝峰,白人朴,刘广利.影响山西省农机化水平的多因素逐步回归分析[J].中国农业大学学报,2005(4):115-118.CHEN B F ,BAI R P,LIU G L .Stepwise regression analysis of multiple factors affecting the level of Agricultural mechanization in Shanxi Province[J].Journal of China Agricultural University,2005(4):115-118.
① 根据地理区域划分,将我国分为东中西3个地区,西部分别包括陕西、甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆、四川、重庆、云南、贵州、西藏.东部分别包括辽宁、天津、北京、河北、山东、江苏、上海、浙江、福建、广东、广西、海南.中部地区分别包括山西、内蒙古、吉林、黑龙江、安徽、江西、河南、湖北和湖南.