天山北坡城市群水资源与城镇化的交互胁迫作用
|
摘要
天山北坡城市群面临着水资源约束瓶颈。为研究其城镇化与水资源的交互胁迫作用,利用2005～2016年的面板数据,分析了城镇化水平与三次产业用水量的对数关系,并对其交互胁迫强度进行了计算。通过计算发现:(1)空气质量与一产用水量呈正向对数关系,三产水平与一产、二产用水量呈负向对数关系,三产水平与三产用水量呈正向对数关系。(2)城镇化率与一产用水量呈负向对数关系。(3)城镇化率与一产用水量为较强-较强胁迫,空气质量与一产、三产用水量为弱-弱胁迫,三产水平、城镇化率与三产用水量为弱-弱胁迫,城镇化率与二产用水量为弱-弱胁迫,空气质量与二产用水量为较强-弱胁迫,三产水平与一产、二产用水量为较强-弱胁迫。计算结果表明:一产用水量胁迫着城镇化进程和三产的发展,城镇化率胁迫着一产用水量的增加;二产的用水量胁迫着空气质量提高和三产的发展。研究成果对于保障天山北坡城市群的可持续发展具有重要的意义。
Northern Tianshan urban cluster is facing water resource constraint. In order to study the mutual-stress between urbanization and water resources,this paper analyzes the logarithmic relationship between urbanization level and water consumption of three industries by using panel data from 2005 to 2016. It is found that the air quality has a positive logarithmic relationship with the water consumption of primary industry. There are negative logarithmic relationship between tertiary industry and the amount of water consumption of primary and secondary industries. The tertiary industry and the water consumption of tertiary industry showed a positive logarithmic relationship. There was a negative logarithmic relationship between urbanization rate and water consumption of primary industry. In addition,the urbanization rate and the water consumption of primary industry showed strongstrong mutual-stress. The air quality and water consumption of the primary and tertiary industries showed weak-weak mutual-stress. The tertiary industry,the urbanization rate and water consumption of tertiary industry showed weak-weak mutual-stress.Urbanization rate and water consumption of secondary industry showed weak-weak mutual-stress. Air quality and secondary industry showed strong-weak mutual-stress. The tertiary industry and water consumption of primary and secondary industries showed strong-weak mutual-stress. Therefore,water consumption of primary industry stressed the process of urbanization and the development of tertiary industry. Urbanization rate stressed the water consumption of primary industry. Water consumption of secondary industry stressed air quality improvement and the development of tertiary industry.
Northern Tianshan urban cluster is facing water resource constraint. In order to study the mutual-stress between urbanization and water resources,this paper analyzes the logarithmic relationship between urbanization level and water consumption of three industries by using panel data from 2005 to 2016. It is found that the air quality has a positive logarithmic relationship with the water consumption of primary industry. There are negative logarithmic relationship between tertiary industry and the amount of water consumption of primary and secondary industries. The tertiary industry and the water consumption of tertiary industry showed a positive logarithmic relationship. There was a negative logarithmic relationship between urbanization rate and water consumption of primary industry. In addition,the urbanization rate and the water consumption of primary industry showed strongstrong mutual-stress. The air quality and water consumption of the primary and tertiary industries showed weak-weak mutual-stress. The tertiary industry,the urbanization rate and water consumption of tertiary industry showed weak-weak mutual-stress.Urbanization rate and water consumption of secondary industry showed weak-weak mutual-stress. Air quality and secondary industry showed strong-weak mutual-stress. The tertiary industry and water consumption of primary and secondary industries showed strong-weak mutual-stress. Therefore,water consumption of primary industry stressed the process of urbanization and the development of tertiary industry. Urbanization rate stressed the water consumption of primary industry. Water consumption of secondary industry stressed air quality improvement and the development of tertiary industry.
引文
[1]宋晓猛,朱奎.城市化对水文影响的研究[J].水电能源科学,2008,26(4):33-35.
[2]匡文慧,刘纪远,陆灯盛.京津唐城市群不透水地表增长格局以及水环境效应[J].地理学报,2011,66(11):1486-1496.
[3]梁艳芹.论城市化对水文环境的影响——以石家庄城区为例[J].地下水,2014,36(5):104-106.
[4]翁士创,詹绍君,杨静,等.改进河流压力指数法及在河流健康评估中的应用[J].人民长江,2018,49(6):13-18.
[5]鲍超,方创琳.水资源约束里的内涵、研究意义及战略框架[J].自然地理学报,2006,21(5):844-851.
[6]方创琳,黄金川,步伟娜.西北干旱区水资源约束下城市化过程及生态效应研究的理论探讨[J].干旱区地理,2004,27(1):1-7.
[7]周念清,赵露,沈新平,等.基于压力驱动模型评价长株潭地区水资源脆弱性[J].同济大学学报:自然科学版,2013,41(7):1061-1066.
[8]方创琳,乔标.水资源约束下西北干旱区城市经济发展与城市化阀值[J].生态环境学报,2005,25(9):2410-2422.
[9]沈叶琴,叶玮,李凤全,等.小城市城市化对水环境的影响——以浙江省长兴县为例[J].水资源保护,2005,21(4):60-62.
[10]刘金萍,李为科,郭跃.重庆城市化过程与水资源环境变化关系研究[J].重庆师范大学学报:自然科学版,2007,24(1):86-89.
[11]鲍超,方创琳.城市化与水资源开发利用的互动机理及调控模式[J].城市发展研究,2010,17(12):19-23.
[12]陈彤,任丽军.山东省城市化与水环境耦合协调模式分析[J].人民黄河,2013,35(6):75-79.
[13]蔡振饶,李东旭,李玉红,等.贵阳市经济发展与水资源环境耦合研究[J].人民长江,49(6):39-43.
[14]谭乐彦,周冉,花金祥,等.济宁都市区城市群复杂水源系统水资源配置研究[J].南水北调与水利科技,2014,12(2):9-11.
[15]邓铭江,章毅,李湘权.新疆天山北麓水资源供需发展趋势研究[J].干旱区地理,2010,33(3):315-324.
[16]穆艾塔尔.赛地,阿不都.沙拉木,崔春亮.新疆天山北坡山区流域水文特征分析[J].水文,2013,33(2):87-92.
[17]周一星.城市地理学[M].上海:商务印书馆,1995.
[18]宋建军,张庆杰,刘颖秋.2020年我国水资源保障程度分析及对策建议[J].中国水利,2004(9):14-17.
[2]匡文慧,刘纪远,陆灯盛.京津唐城市群不透水地表增长格局以及水环境效应[J].地理学报,2011,66(11):1486-1496.
[3]梁艳芹.论城市化对水文环境的影响——以石家庄城区为例[J].地下水,2014,36(5):104-106.
[4]翁士创,詹绍君,杨静,等.改进河流压力指数法及在河流健康评估中的应用[J].人民长江,2018,49(6):13-18.
[5]鲍超,方创琳.水资源约束里的内涵、研究意义及战略框架[J].自然地理学报,2006,21(5):844-851.
[6]方创琳,黄金川,步伟娜.西北干旱区水资源约束下城市化过程及生态效应研究的理论探讨[J].干旱区地理,2004,27(1):1-7.
[7]周念清,赵露,沈新平,等.基于压力驱动模型评价长株潭地区水资源脆弱性[J].同济大学学报:自然科学版,2013,41(7):1061-1066.
[8]方创琳,乔标.水资源约束下西北干旱区城市经济发展与城市化阀值[J].生态环境学报,2005,25(9):2410-2422.
[9]沈叶琴,叶玮,李凤全,等.小城市城市化对水环境的影响——以浙江省长兴县为例[J].水资源保护,2005,21(4):60-62.
[10]刘金萍,李为科,郭跃.重庆城市化过程与水资源环境变化关系研究[J].重庆师范大学学报:自然科学版,2007,24(1):86-89.
[11]鲍超,方创琳.城市化与水资源开发利用的互动机理及调控模式[J].城市发展研究,2010,17(12):19-23.
[12]陈彤,任丽军.山东省城市化与水环境耦合协调模式分析[J].人民黄河,2013,35(6):75-79.
[13]蔡振饶,李东旭,李玉红,等.贵阳市经济发展与水资源环境耦合研究[J].人民长江,49(6):39-43.
[14]谭乐彦,周冉,花金祥,等.济宁都市区城市群复杂水源系统水资源配置研究[J].南水北调与水利科技,2014,12(2):9-11.
[15]邓铭江,章毅,李湘权.新疆天山北麓水资源供需发展趋势研究[J].干旱区地理,2010,33(3):315-324.
[16]穆艾塔尔.赛地,阿不都.沙拉木,崔春亮.新疆天山北坡山区流域水文特征分析[J].水文,2013,33(2):87-92.
[17]周一星.城市地理学[M].上海:商务印书馆,1995.
[18]宋建军,张庆杰,刘颖秋.2020年我国水资源保障程度分析及对策建议[J].中国水利,2004(9):14-17.