中国货币当局资产负债表结构与货币政策调控方式转变
|
摘要
货币当局资产负债表是分析央行行为与货币政策执行情况的一个重要报表。我国货币当局资产负债表科目随着经济金融结构的演变经历了多次调整,本文梳理了我国货币当局资产负债表结构及其演变过程,重新编制1999-2018年的年度可比货币当局资产负债表,通过解析各科目余额及其结构的动态变化特征,揭示统计数据背后的经济逻辑与政策实践、以及重要资产负债科目间的勾稽关系。研究发现:外汇占款和对其他存款性公司的债权是我国货币当局投放基础货币的主要渠道。过去20年中,两种渠道此消彼长反映出我国基础货币投放方式和货币政策调控方式的两次重要转变与创新。在外汇占款大幅增长时期,货币当局曾通过频繁提高法定存款准备金率和发行央行票据回笼过剩流动性。随着国际收支顺差收窄和国内经济由高速增长向高质量发展转变,公开市场操作和创新型再贷款工具将成为货币当局主动投放基础货币的重要渠道。
This paper analyzes the structure and evolution of the China's monetary authority balance sheet. On this basis, the annual comparable monetary authority balance sheet from 1999 to 2018 is re-compiled to analyze the balance of each account and the changing track of its structure, and reveal the economic logic and policy practice behind the statistics, as well as the articulations between important assets and liability accounts. It is found that foreign exchange and claims to other depository companies are the main channels for monetary authorities to launch base money. In the past 20 years, the rise and fall of the two channels reflects two important changes and innovations in the way of basic money supply and monetary policy tools in China. During the period of sharp increase in foreign exchange holdings, the monetary authorities used to drain excess liquidity by frequently raising the required reserve ratio and issuing central bank bills. As the balance of payments surplus narrows and the domestic economy shifts from high-speed growth to high-quality development, open market operations and innovative re-lending tools will become an important channel for monetary authority to actively launch base money.
This paper analyzes the structure and evolution of the China's monetary authority balance sheet. On this basis, the annual comparable monetary authority balance sheet from 1999 to 2018 is re-compiled to analyze the balance of each account and the changing track of its structure, and reveal the economic logic and policy practice behind the statistics, as well as the articulations between important assets and liability accounts. It is found that foreign exchange and claims to other depository companies are the main channels for monetary authorities to launch base money. In the past 20 years, the rise and fall of the two channels reflects two important changes and innovations in the way of basic money supply and monetary policy tools in China. During the period of sharp increase in foreign exchange holdings, the monetary authorities used to drain excess liquidity by frequently raising the required reserve ratio and issuing central bank bills. As the balance of payments surplus narrows and the domestic economy shifts from high-speed growth to high-quality development, open market operations and innovative re-lending tools will become an important channel for monetary authority to actively launch base money.
引文
[1]Caruana J.Why Central Bank Balance Sheet Matter [R].BIS Working Papers,December 2011.
[2]Pattipeilohy C.A Comparative Analysis of Developments in Central Bank Balance Sheet Composition[R].DNB Working Papers,April 2016,No.510.
[3]Bindseil U.Monetary Policy Implementation:Theory,Past,and Present[M].New York:Oxford University Press,2004.
[4]Gauti E,Woodford M.The Zero Interest Bound and Optimal Monetary Policy[R].Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,2003.
[5]Greenwood R.,Vayanos D.Bond Supply and Excess Bond Returns[R].NBER Working Paper,February 2008,No.w13806.
[6]Vayanos D.,Vila J L.A Preferred-habitat Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates[R].NBER Working Paper,November,2009,No.w15487.
[7]Borio C,Disyatat P.Unconventional Monetary Policies:an Appraisal[J].BIS Working paper,November,2009,No.292.
[8]Cúrdia V.,Woodford M.The Central Bank Balance Sheet as an Instrument of Monetary Policy[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,2011(58):54-79.
[9]Joyce M A S.,Tong M.QE and the Gilt Market:A Disaggregated Analysis[J].The Economic Journal,2012(122):348-384.
[10]Bauer M D.,Rudebusch G D.The Signaling Channel for Federal Reserve Bond Purchases[J].International Journal of Central Banking,2014(10):233-289.
[11]Archer D,Moser-Boehm P.Central Bank Finances[R].BIS Working paper,April 2013,No.7.
[12]王国刚.基于资产负债表的央行调控能力分析[J].金融评论,2010(1):1-16.
[13]王国刚.中国货币政策调控工具的操作机理:2001-2010[J].中国社会科学,2012(4):62-82.
[14]李治国.基础货币、货币乘数与货币当局资产负债结构的关系研究——基于中国1994-2006年季度数据的实证分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2007(11):15-26.
[15]李治国,张晓蓉.转型期货币供给内生决定机制:基于货币当局资产负债表的解析[J].统计研究,2009(6):13-22.
[16]伍戈.中国货币供给的结构分析:1999-2009[J].财贸经济,2010(11):40-45.
[17]伍戈,李斌.货币创造渠道的变化与货币政策的应对[J].国际金融研究,2012(10):4-10.
[18]肖萌.中国货币当局资产负债表分析[J].金融评论,2015(5):70-81.
[19]陈梦根,张唯婧.IMF对货币与金融统计体系的最新修订解析[J].经济社会体制比较,2014(5):48-59.
[20]周海涛.我国货币当局资产负债表的项目构成与分析[J].会计之友,2011(1):45-47.
[21]戴根有.中央银行货币政策监测指标体系建议[J].金融研究,1991(6):32-37.
[22]宴露蓉,姜杰,黄素英,等.关于财政政策影响货币运行的实证研究——从我国货币当局资产负债表看财政货币政策的相关性[J].金融研究,2008(6):37-55.
[23]盛松成,翟春.中央银行与货币供给[M].北京:中国金融出版社,2015.
(1)由于篇幅所限,附表1见《统计研究》网站所列附件。下同。
(2)2005年汇改后,人民币汇率呈单边上升趋势。在升值预期下,个人与机构持有外汇的意愿下降,结汇意愿强烈,导致中国人民银行持有外汇储备急剧增长,人民币升值压力进一步加大。为缓解外汇兑付压力,中国人民银行2007年7月30日宣布,从8月15日起上调存款准备金率0.5个百分点至12%,并要求总部驻京的全国性商业银行必须用外汇交付上调部分的人民币存款准备金。9月,这一政策的适用范围扩大至所有全国性商业银行。
(3)根据中国人民银行的相关规定,自1998年起,信托投资公司、财务公司、金融租赁公司等其他非银行金融机构也要缴纳法定存款准备金率,法定存款准备金率略低于存款性商业银行。
(4)按照最新货币当局资产负债表结构重新编制1999-2018年报表时,将2008年之前“非金融机构存款”或类似科目并入“不计入储备货币的金融性公司存款”,这仅是根据2008年公布的货币当局资产负债表附注对相关科目进行的简单归并。
(5)2011年1月前,国外银行在中国人民银行的存款计入“储备货币-其他存款性公司存款”,根据IMF《货币与金融统计手册》,2011年1月起调入“国外负债”科目。
[2]Pattipeilohy C.A Comparative Analysis of Developments in Central Bank Balance Sheet Composition[R].DNB Working Papers,April 2016,No.510.
[3]Bindseil U.Monetary Policy Implementation:Theory,Past,and Present[M].New York:Oxford University Press,2004.
[4]Gauti E,Woodford M.The Zero Interest Bound and Optimal Monetary Policy[R].Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,2003.
[5]Greenwood R.,Vayanos D.Bond Supply and Excess Bond Returns[R].NBER Working Paper,February 2008,No.w13806.
[6]Vayanos D.,Vila J L.A Preferred-habitat Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates[R].NBER Working Paper,November,2009,No.w15487.
[7]Borio C,Disyatat P.Unconventional Monetary Policies:an Appraisal[J].BIS Working paper,November,2009,No.292.
[8]Cúrdia V.,Woodford M.The Central Bank Balance Sheet as an Instrument of Monetary Policy[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,2011(58):54-79.
[9]Joyce M A S.,Tong M.QE and the Gilt Market:A Disaggregated Analysis[J].The Economic Journal,2012(122):348-384.
[10]Bauer M D.,Rudebusch G D.The Signaling Channel for Federal Reserve Bond Purchases[J].International Journal of Central Banking,2014(10):233-289.
[11]Archer D,Moser-Boehm P.Central Bank Finances[R].BIS Working paper,April 2013,No.7.
[12]王国刚.基于资产负债表的央行调控能力分析[J].金融评论,2010(1):1-16.
[13]王国刚.中国货币政策调控工具的操作机理:2001-2010[J].中国社会科学,2012(4):62-82.
[14]李治国.基础货币、货币乘数与货币当局资产负债结构的关系研究——基于中国1994-2006年季度数据的实证分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2007(11):15-26.
[15]李治国,张晓蓉.转型期货币供给内生决定机制:基于货币当局资产负债表的解析[J].统计研究,2009(6):13-22.
[16]伍戈.中国货币供给的结构分析:1999-2009[J].财贸经济,2010(11):40-45.
[17]伍戈,李斌.货币创造渠道的变化与货币政策的应对[J].国际金融研究,2012(10):4-10.
[18]肖萌.中国货币当局资产负债表分析[J].金融评论,2015(5):70-81.
[19]陈梦根,张唯婧.IMF对货币与金融统计体系的最新修订解析[J].经济社会体制比较,2014(5):48-59.
[20]周海涛.我国货币当局资产负债表的项目构成与分析[J].会计之友,2011(1):45-47.
[21]戴根有.中央银行货币政策监测指标体系建议[J].金融研究,1991(6):32-37.
[22]宴露蓉,姜杰,黄素英,等.关于财政政策影响货币运行的实证研究——从我国货币当局资产负债表看财政货币政策的相关性[J].金融研究,2008(6):37-55.
[23]盛松成,翟春.中央银行与货币供给[M].北京:中国金融出版社,2015.
(1)由于篇幅所限,附表1见《统计研究》网站所列附件。下同。
(2)2005年汇改后,人民币汇率呈单边上升趋势。在升值预期下,个人与机构持有外汇的意愿下降,结汇意愿强烈,导致中国人民银行持有外汇储备急剧增长,人民币升值压力进一步加大。为缓解外汇兑付压力,中国人民银行2007年7月30日宣布,从8月15日起上调存款准备金率0.5个百分点至12%,并要求总部驻京的全国性商业银行必须用外汇交付上调部分的人民币存款准备金。9月,这一政策的适用范围扩大至所有全国性商业银行。
(3)根据中国人民银行的相关规定,自1998年起,信托投资公司、财务公司、金融租赁公司等其他非银行金融机构也要缴纳法定存款准备金率,法定存款准备金率略低于存款性商业银行。
(4)按照最新货币当局资产负债表结构重新编制1999-2018年报表时,将2008年之前“非金融机构存款”或类似科目并入“不计入储备货币的金融性公司存款”,这仅是根据2008年公布的货币当局资产负债表附注对相关科目进行的简单归并。
(5)2011年1月前,国外银行在中国人民银行的存款计入“储备货币-其他存款性公司存款”,根据IMF《货币与金融统计手册》,2011年1月起调入“国外负债”科目。