国际大宗商品价格冲击对我国消费价格波动的影响及传导效应
|
摘要
基于理论视角剖析了国际大宗商品价格冲击对消费价格影响的传导机制,进而运用联立方程模型,实证研究了国际大宗商品价格冲击对我国消费价格波动的影响及传导效应。结果表明:总体上,国际大宗商品价格冲击对我国消费价格波动产生了显著的放大作用,这种影响主要通过直接消费渠道、生产成本渠道和市场预期渠道等路径实现,虽然理论上货币政策对国际大宗商品价格波动的冲击存在反向修正机制,但事实上这种传导渠道在我国并没有得到充分体现。基于研究结论,提出了相关对策建议。
From the perspective of theory, this paper analyzes the transmission mechanism of the impact of international commodity price shocks on consumer prices, and then uses the simultaneous equation model to empirically study the impact of international commodity price shocks on China's consumer price fluctuations and its transmission effect. The results show that on the whole, international commodity price shocks have a significant amplification effect on China's consumer price fluctuations, which is mainly achieved through direct consumption channels, production cost channels and market expectations channels. Although there is a reverse correction mechanism in theory for the impact of monetary policy on international commodity price fluctuations, in fact,this transmission channel has not been fully reflected in China. Based on the research conclusions, this paper proposes relevant countermeasures and suggestions.
From the perspective of theory, this paper analyzes the transmission mechanism of the impact of international commodity price shocks on consumer prices, and then uses the simultaneous equation model to empirically study the impact of international commodity price shocks on China's consumer price fluctuations and its transmission effect. The results show that on the whole, international commodity price shocks have a significant amplification effect on China's consumer price fluctuations, which is mainly achieved through direct consumption channels, production cost channels and market expectations channels. Although there is a reverse correction mechanism in theory for the impact of monetary policy on international commodity price fluctuations, in fact,this transmission channel has not been fully reflected in China. Based on the research conclusions, this paper proposes relevant countermeasures and suggestions.
引文
[1]李京栋，李先德，孙致陆.中国大宗水果价格大幅波动的影响因素分析---基于苹果、梨、香蕉价格数据[J].湖南农业大学学报(社会科学版)，2018(3):15-23.
[2]张耀.中国消费价格的部门间传导关系研究---一个解释价格传导机制的新视角[J].国际金融研究，2017(10):24-33.
[3]rfan Civcir,Dizem Ertac Varoglu.Internationa transmission of monetary and global commodity price shocks to Turkey[J].Journal of Policy Modeling,2019(2).
[4]Gregorio J.D.,O.Landerretche&C.Neilson.Another Pass-Through Bites the Dust?Oil Prices and Inflation[J].Journal of LACEA Economia,2007(2).
[5]王艳，胡援成.国际石油价格波动对我国居民消费价格指数的影响[J].统计与决策，2018(1):128-131.
[6]陆小莉.国际石油价格波动对我国物价水平的影响---基于联立方程模型的实证研究[D].天津：天津财经大学硕士学位论文，2014.
[2]张耀.中国消费价格的部门间传导关系研究---一个解释价格传导机制的新视角[J].国际金融研究，2017(10):24-33.
[3]rfan Civcir,Dizem Ertac Varoglu.Internationa transmission of monetary and global commodity price shocks to Turkey[J].Journal of Policy Modeling,2019(2).
[4]Gregorio J.D.,O.Landerretche&C.Neilson.Another Pass-Through Bites the Dust?Oil Prices and Inflation[J].Journal of LACEA Economia,2007(2).
[5]王艳，胡援成.国际石油价格波动对我国居民消费价格指数的影响[J].统计与决策，2018(1):128-131.
[6]陆小莉.国际石油价格波动对我国物价水平的影响---基于联立方程模型的实证研究[D].天津：天津财经大学硕士学位论文，2014.