气候变化对中国主要粮食作物单产影响的文献计量Meta分析
|
摘要
气候变化对粮食安全的影响越来越受到各级政府和学界的关注。然而,已有研究在评估气候变化对粮食单产的影响时,因情景设定、模型方法、参数设定或作物种类等不同,得出的结果存在差异,甚至出现正负截然相反的评估结果,给气候变化经济学者在评估气候变化对粮食供需、价格和贸易的影响时选用哪篇文献的结果作为依据进一步评估造成困扰。本文研究目的是以已有文献中有关气候变化对中国未来粮食单产影响的评估结果为统计样本,构建气候变化对粮食单产影响的损失函数,给出统一情景下气温、降水变化对中国主要粮食作物单产的影响。本文从1 366篇文献中通过层层筛选,找到34篇高度相关的文献,基于此获得了288个研究样本,采用统计描述分析和文献计量Meta分析方法估计气候变化关键变量对主要粮食作物单产的影响。研究结果表明,气候变化对主要粮食作物单产的影响大小与气候变化情景、作物种类、种植地区、是否考虑CO_2肥效等有关。综合不同气候变化情景的结果,发现:气温每提高1℃,中国三大粮食作物的单产整体下降约2. 6%;降水每增加1%,中国三大粮食作物的单产整体约增加0. 4%; CO_2肥效的影响存在较大争议。综合气温和降水对粮食单产的影响,本研究表明气候变化将对中国粮食安全造成一定的冲击,可能部分抵消技术进步等带来的正面效应。本研究综合相关文献结果,提供了统一情景下气温、降水变化对中国主要粮食作物单产的影响,将为气候变化的农产品供需市场模型或者气候变化综合评估模型(IAM)研究提供可靠的数据基础。
The impact of climate change on food security is attracting ever increasing attention from governments and academics.However,the previous studies on assessing the effects of climate change on grain yield-which used different impact factors and methodshave led to different,even contrasting results. This situation confuses agricultural and climate change economists when choosing the yield loss for assessing the impact of climate change on food security. This paper aims to provide the impact of temperature and precipitation changes on the yields of China's staple crops under a unified scenario by using the results of the existing research on assessment of the impact of climate change on China's future grain yields as a statistical sample. Then it constructs a damage function of climate change impact on grain yield. Thus,this study establishes 288 samples according to the results of highly relevant papers and applies Meta-analysis method to assess the impact of climate change on staple crops' yield of China. The results show that the impacts of climate change on the yield of staple crops are different depending on climate change scenarios,crop types,planting areas,and whether CO_2 fertilizer efficiency is considered. It concludes that for every 1℃ increase in temperature,the overall yield of China's three major food crops decreases by about 2. 6%; for every 1% increase in precipitation,the yield of China's three major food crops increases by about 0. 4%; while the influence of the CO_2 fertilizer effect has large uncertainty due to different studies. By synthesizing the effects of temperature and precipitation on grain yields,this study shows that climate change will certainly affect China's food security even offsetting the positive effects of some technological advance. Our study summarizes the impacts of climate change on the yield of staple crops under the same temperature and precipitation change and will provide reliable data basis for assessing the impact of climate change by using agricultural partial equilibrium model or integrated assessment models.
The impact of climate change on food security is attracting ever increasing attention from governments and academics.However,the previous studies on assessing the effects of climate change on grain yield-which used different impact factors and methodshave led to different,even contrasting results. This situation confuses agricultural and climate change economists when choosing the yield loss for assessing the impact of climate change on food security. This paper aims to provide the impact of temperature and precipitation changes on the yields of China's staple crops under a unified scenario by using the results of the existing research on assessment of the impact of climate change on China's future grain yields as a statistical sample. Then it constructs a damage function of climate change impact on grain yield. Thus,this study establishes 288 samples according to the results of highly relevant papers and applies Meta-analysis method to assess the impact of climate change on staple crops' yield of China. The results show that the impacts of climate change on the yield of staple crops are different depending on climate change scenarios,crop types,planting areas,and whether CO_2 fertilizer efficiency is considered. It concludes that for every 1℃ increase in temperature,the overall yield of China's three major food crops decreases by about 2. 6%; for every 1% increase in precipitation,the yield of China's three major food crops increases by about 0. 4%; while the influence of the CO_2 fertilizer effect has large uncertainty due to different studies. By synthesizing the effects of temperature and precipitation on grain yields,this study shows that climate change will certainly affect China's food security even offsetting the positive effects of some technological advance. Our study summarizes the impacts of climate change on the yield of staple crops under the same temperature and precipitation change and will provide reliable data basis for assessing the impact of climate change by using agricultural partial equilibrium model or integrated assessment models.
引文
[1]陈锡文.中国农业政策面临的挑战[J].经济研究参考,2017(12):25-25.
[2]黄季焜,杨军,仇焕广.新时期国家粮食安全战略和政策的思考[J].农业经济问题,2012(3):4-8.
[3]谢立勇,李悦,徐玉秀,等.气候变化对农业生产与粮食安全影响的新认知[J].气候变化研究进展,2014,10(4):235-239.
[4]汪阳洁,仇焕广,陈晓红.气候变化对农业影响的经济学方法研究进展[J].中国农村经济,2015(9):4-16.
[5]HLPE(High Level Panel of Experts).Food security and climate change.A report by the High Level Panel of Experts(HLPE)on food security and nutrition of the Committee on World Food Security(CFS)[R].2012.
[6]中央一号文件.中共中央国务院关于加快水利改革发展的决定[R].2011.
[7]ROSENZWEIG C,ELLIOTT J,DERYNG D,et al.Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st Century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,2014,111(9):3268-73.
[8]TAO F L,HAYASHI Y,ZHANG Z,et al.Global warming,rice production,and water use in China:developing a probabilistic assessment[J].Agricultural and forest meteorology,2008,148(1):94-110.
[9]XIONG W,CONWAY D,LIN E,et al.Potential impacts of climate change and climate variability on China’s rice yield and production[J].Climate research,2009,40(1):23-35.
[10]ZHANG T,ZHU J,WASSMANN R.Responses of rice yields to recent climate change in China:an empirical assessment based on long-term observations at different spatial scales(1981-2005)[J].Agricultural and forest meteorology,2010,150(7):1128-1137.
[11]YU Y,ZHANG W,HUANG Y.Impact assessment of climate change,carbon dioxide fertilization and constant growing season on rice yields in China[J].Climatic change,2014,124(4):763-775.
[12]MATTHEWS R B,KROPFF M J,HORIE T,et al.Simulating the impact of climate change on rice production in Asia and evaluating options for adaptation[J].Agricultural systems,1997,54(3):399-425.
[13]WANG J X,HUANG J K,YANG J.Overview of impacts of climate change and adaptation in China’s agriculture[J].Journal of integrative agriculture,2014,13(1):1-17.
[14]NORDHAUS W.A question of balance:weighing the options on global warming policies[M].New Haven C T:Yale University Press,2009.
[15]ACKERMAN F,MUNITZ C.Climate damages in the FUND Model:a disaggregated analysis[J].Ecological economics,2012,77(2):219-224.
[16]《第三次气候变化国家评估报告》编写委员会.第三次气候变化国家评估报告[M].北京:科学出版社,2016.
[17]CHALLINOR A J,WATSON J,LOBELL D B,et al.A metaanalysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation[J].Nature climate change,2014,4(4):287-291.
[18]潘根兴,高民,胡国华,等.气候变化对中国农业生产的影响[J].农业环境科学学报,2011,30(9):1698-1706.
[19]TAO F,YOKOZAWA M,XU Y,et al.Climate changes and trends in phenology and yields of field crops in China,1981-2000[J].Agricultural and forest meteorology,2006,138(1):82-92.
[20]谢立勇,林而达.适应二氧化碳肥效作用的农业技术潜力分析[J].中国农业气象,2006,27(3):161-166.
[21]WANG P,ZHANG Z,SONG X,et al.Temperature variations and rice yields in China:historical contributions and future trends[J].Climatic change,2014,124(4):777-789.
[22]NELSON J P,KENNEDY P E.The use(and abuse)of MetaAnalysis in environmental and natural resource economics:an assessment[J].Environmental and resource economics,2009,42(3):345-377.
[23]SHADISH W R,HADDOCK C K.Combining estimates of effect size[J].Handbook of research synthesis,2009:257-277.
[24]国家统计局.中国统计年鉴(2015)[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2015.
[25]LIN E,WEI X,HUI J,et al.Climate change impacts on crop yield and quality with CO2fertilization in China[J].Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B:biological sciences,2005,360:2149-2154.
[26]XIONG W,MATTHEWS R,HOLMAN I,et al.Modelling China’s potential maize production at regional scale under climate change[J].Climatic change,2007,85(3-4):433-451.
[27]XIONG W,DECLAN C,ERDA L,et al.Future cereal production in China:the interaction of climate change,water availability and socio-economic scenarios[J].Global environmental change,2009,19(1):34-44.
[28]TAO F L,ZHANG Z.Climate change,wheat productivity and water use in the North China Plain:a new super-ensemble-based probabilistic projection[J].Agricultural and forest meteorology,2013,170(2):146-165.
[29]LI K,YANG X,TIAN H,et al.Effects of changing climate and cultivar on the phenology and yield of winter wheat in the North China Plain[J].International journal of biometeorology,2016,60(1):21-32.
[2]黄季焜,杨军,仇焕广.新时期国家粮食安全战略和政策的思考[J].农业经济问题,2012(3):4-8.
[3]谢立勇,李悦,徐玉秀,等.气候变化对农业生产与粮食安全影响的新认知[J].气候变化研究进展,2014,10(4):235-239.
[4]汪阳洁,仇焕广,陈晓红.气候变化对农业影响的经济学方法研究进展[J].中国农村经济,2015(9):4-16.
[5]HLPE(High Level Panel of Experts).Food security and climate change.A report by the High Level Panel of Experts(HLPE)on food security and nutrition of the Committee on World Food Security(CFS)[R].2012.
[6]中央一号文件.中共中央国务院关于加快水利改革发展的决定[R].2011.
[7]ROSENZWEIG C,ELLIOTT J,DERYNG D,et al.Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st Century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,2014,111(9):3268-73.
[8]TAO F L,HAYASHI Y,ZHANG Z,et al.Global warming,rice production,and water use in China:developing a probabilistic assessment[J].Agricultural and forest meteorology,2008,148(1):94-110.
[9]XIONG W,CONWAY D,LIN E,et al.Potential impacts of climate change and climate variability on China’s rice yield and production[J].Climate research,2009,40(1):23-35.
[10]ZHANG T,ZHU J,WASSMANN R.Responses of rice yields to recent climate change in China:an empirical assessment based on long-term observations at different spatial scales(1981-2005)[J].Agricultural and forest meteorology,2010,150(7):1128-1137.
[11]YU Y,ZHANG W,HUANG Y.Impact assessment of climate change,carbon dioxide fertilization and constant growing season on rice yields in China[J].Climatic change,2014,124(4):763-775.
[12]MATTHEWS R B,KROPFF M J,HORIE T,et al.Simulating the impact of climate change on rice production in Asia and evaluating options for adaptation[J].Agricultural systems,1997,54(3):399-425.
[13]WANG J X,HUANG J K,YANG J.Overview of impacts of climate change and adaptation in China’s agriculture[J].Journal of integrative agriculture,2014,13(1):1-17.
[14]NORDHAUS W.A question of balance:weighing the options on global warming policies[M].New Haven C T:Yale University Press,2009.
[15]ACKERMAN F,MUNITZ C.Climate damages in the FUND Model:a disaggregated analysis[J].Ecological economics,2012,77(2):219-224.
[16]《第三次气候变化国家评估报告》编写委员会.第三次气候变化国家评估报告[M].北京:科学出版社,2016.
[17]CHALLINOR A J,WATSON J,LOBELL D B,et al.A metaanalysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation[J].Nature climate change,2014,4(4):287-291.
[18]潘根兴,高民,胡国华,等.气候变化对中国农业生产的影响[J].农业环境科学学报,2011,30(9):1698-1706.
[19]TAO F,YOKOZAWA M,XU Y,et al.Climate changes and trends in phenology and yields of field crops in China,1981-2000[J].Agricultural and forest meteorology,2006,138(1):82-92.
[20]谢立勇,林而达.适应二氧化碳肥效作用的农业技术潜力分析[J].中国农业气象,2006,27(3):161-166.
[21]WANG P,ZHANG Z,SONG X,et al.Temperature variations and rice yields in China:historical contributions and future trends[J].Climatic change,2014,124(4):777-789.
[22]NELSON J P,KENNEDY P E.The use(and abuse)of MetaAnalysis in environmental and natural resource economics:an assessment[J].Environmental and resource economics,2009,42(3):345-377.
[23]SHADISH W R,HADDOCK C K.Combining estimates of effect size[J].Handbook of research synthesis,2009:257-277.
[24]国家统计局.中国统计年鉴(2015)[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2015.
[25]LIN E,WEI X,HUI J,et al.Climate change impacts on crop yield and quality with CO2fertilization in China[J].Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B:biological sciences,2005,360:2149-2154.
[26]XIONG W,MATTHEWS R,HOLMAN I,et al.Modelling China’s potential maize production at regional scale under climate change[J].Climatic change,2007,85(3-4):433-451.
[27]XIONG W,DECLAN C,ERDA L,et al.Future cereal production in China:the interaction of climate change,water availability and socio-economic scenarios[J].Global environmental change,2009,19(1):34-44.
[28]TAO F L,ZHANG Z.Climate change,wheat productivity and water use in the North China Plain:a new super-ensemble-based probabilistic projection[J].Agricultural and forest meteorology,2013,170(2):146-165.
[29]LI K,YANG X,TIAN H,et al.Effects of changing climate and cultivar on the phenology and yield of winter wheat in the North China Plain[J].International journal of biometeorology,2016,60(1):21-32.
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |