警用视频监控的犯罪防控效果及空间差异——以苏州市姑苏区为例
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摘要
采用双重差分法,对苏州市姑苏区2014～2016年的警情数据进行分析,评估警用治安视频监控的犯罪防控效果。结果表明,视频监控对犯罪具有明显的抑制性作用。在案件类型上,视频监控对盗窃类案件的防控效果较好,但对盗窃电动自行车、盗窃电动车电瓶的防控效果较小。在时间维度上,与节假日相比,对工作日犯罪的抑制效果更好;与晚上相比,对白天犯罪的抑制效果更好。针对通过局部空间自相关分析所获取的重点区域,与警务人员访谈和实地调研后发现,视频监控的犯罪防控效果与周边地理环境、人流密集程度、警务情况等密切相关。
The Closed-Circuit Television(CCTV) has been widely installed throughout mainland China, and is playing an increasingly important role in the routine work of police department. Through the installation of the CCTV, it is expected to increase the risk of being exposed or being arrested of potential offenders, and thus reduce the occurrence of crime events. Despite vast amount of money has been invested, however, there is no scientific evaluation of the crime reduction effect of police CCTVs in China. To fill this gap, this article takes Gusu district in Suzhou city as a study case, and uses a Difference in Differences(DID) method to evaluate the effect of police CCTVs based on the crime incidents data from April 2014 to September 2016. For the DID method, a control area should be identified for each given target area, and the crime densities for a period of seven months before and after the installation of the police CCTVs in the target and control areas are then compared to determine the specific effect of each police CCTV. In this study, the target areas are defined as the areas which are directly viewed by the police CCTVs rather than the simple buffer areas. After merging some very near police CCTVs, at last 217 target areas are obtained. In addition, the spatial pattern of police CCTV's effect is analyzed with the Local Indicator of Spatial Association(LISA). For the local areas identified as significant spatial clusters or outliers, both field observations and interviews with police officers are carried out to understand the interactions between the environment and crime in those areas. The empirical results show that:Overall, the police CCTV has a significant crime reduction effect based on both the boxplot graph of the DID values and the regression results. The DID values for most police CCTVs are below zero. In terms of crime types, the police CCTV has equal reduction effects on the general criminal and public-order cases. The effect of police CCTV on the general theft crime is stronger than those on the specific theft of electric bicycle and the specific theft of battery of electric cars. When grouping crime events by the type of temporal period, it is found that police CCTV has a stronger reduction effect for the crime happened during the weekdays than those happened during the holidays & weekends. Also, the police CCTV is found to reduce more crimes happened during the daytime than the nighttime period. The results of local Moran's I show that the police CCTVs with crime-reduction or crime-increase effects are concentrated in several local areas. The police CCTVs in the old city have a significant crime-reduction effect while those in the old communities with large population flow have a significant crime-increase effect. In summary, the effects of police CCTVs on crime level subject to the influence of the geographical environment in the vicinity, the volume of population flow, and the performance of policing work.
The Closed-Circuit Television(CCTV) has been widely installed throughout mainland China, and is playing an increasingly important role in the routine work of police department. Through the installation of the CCTV, it is expected to increase the risk of being exposed or being arrested of potential offenders, and thus reduce the occurrence of crime events. Despite vast amount of money has been invested, however, there is no scientific evaluation of the crime reduction effect of police CCTVs in China. To fill this gap, this article takes Gusu district in Suzhou city as a study case, and uses a Difference in Differences(DID) method to evaluate the effect of police CCTVs based on the crime incidents data from April 2014 to September 2016. For the DID method, a control area should be identified for each given target area, and the crime densities for a period of seven months before and after the installation of the police CCTVs in the target and control areas are then compared to determine the specific effect of each police CCTV. In this study, the target areas are defined as the areas which are directly viewed by the police CCTVs rather than the simple buffer areas. After merging some very near police CCTVs, at last 217 target areas are obtained. In addition, the spatial pattern of police CCTV's effect is analyzed with the Local Indicator of Spatial Association(LISA). For the local areas identified as significant spatial clusters or outliers, both field observations and interviews with police officers are carried out to understand the interactions between the environment and crime in those areas. The empirical results show that:Overall, the police CCTV has a significant crime reduction effect based on both the boxplot graph of the DID values and the regression results. The DID values for most police CCTVs are below zero. In terms of crime types, the police CCTV has equal reduction effects on the general criminal and public-order cases. The effect of police CCTV on the general theft crime is stronger than those on the specific theft of electric bicycle and the specific theft of battery of electric cars. When grouping crime events by the type of temporal period, it is found that police CCTV has a stronger reduction effect for the crime happened during the weekdays than those happened during the holidays & weekends. Also, the police CCTV is found to reduce more crimes happened during the daytime than the nighttime period. The results of local Moran's I show that the police CCTVs with crime-reduction or crime-increase effects are concentrated in several local areas. The police CCTVs in the old city have a significant crime-reduction effect while those in the old communities with large population flow have a significant crime-increase effect. In summary, the effects of police CCTVs on crime level subject to the influence of the geographical environment in the vicinity, the volume of population flow, and the performance of policing work.
引文
[1]姜超,柳林.中国犯罪地理与警务GIS研究进展[J].地球信息科学学报, 2013, 15(6):801-808, 853.[Jiang Chao, Liu Lin. Research progress of crime geography studies in China. Journal of Geo-Information Science, 2013, 15(6):801-808, 853.]
[2]刘大千,宋伟,修春亮.长春市“两抢两盗”犯罪的空间分析[J].地理科学, 2014, 34(11):1344-1352.[Liu Daqian, Song Wei,Xiu Chunliang. Spatial analysis on robbery, forcible seizure, vehicle theft and burglary in Changchun. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2014, 34(11):1344-1352.]
[3]徐冲,柳林,周素红.基于临近相似性考虑的犯罪热点密度图预测准确性比较——以DP半岛街头抢劫犯罪为例[J].地理科学,2016, 36(1):55-62.[Xu Chong, Liu Lin, Zhou Suhong.The comparison of predictive accuracy of crime hotspot density maps with the consideration of the near similarity:A case study of robberies at DP peninsula. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2016,36(1):55-62.]
[4]李钢,谭然,王会娟,等.中国拐卖儿童犯罪的地理特征研究[J].地理科学,2017, 37(7):1049-1058.[Li Gang, Tan Ran, Wang Huijuan et al. Geographic characteristics of child trafficking crime in China. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2017,37(7):1049-1058.]
[5]张延吉,秦波,唐杰.城市建成环境对居住安全感的影响——基于全国278个城市社区的实证分析[J].地理科学,2017,37(9):1318-1325.[Zhang Yanji, Qin Bo, Tang Jie. The influence of urban built-up environment on sense of residential security:Based on the empirical research of 278 communities in urban China. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2017,37(9):1318-1325.]
[6]周素红,谢蔚翰,宋广文,等.土地利用对街头抢劫影响的空间分异模式:以H市为例[J].地理科学,2017, 37(6):885-894.[Zhou Suhong, Xie Weihan, Song Guangwen et al. The spatial differentiation effect of land use on street robbery:A case study in H City, China. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2017,37(6):885-894.]
[7]姜超,柳林,周素红,等.住区开放与犯罪:国外情境下的实证评估与理论剖析[J].规划师, 2017, 33(8):105-111.[Jiang Chao,Liu Lin, Zhou Shuhong et al. Opening gated community&crime:Empirical evaluation and theoretical analysis in foreign context.Planers,2017, 33(8):105-111.]
[8]姜超,唐焕丽,柳林.中国犯罪地理研究述评[J].地理科学进展,2014, 33(4):561-573.[Jiang Chao, Tang Huanli, Liu Lin. Review of crime geography in China. Progress in Geography,2014, 33(4):561-573.]
[9]杨建国.论视频监控的犯罪预防功能及犯罪侦查价值[J].犯罪研究, 2011(1):64-74.[Yang Jianguo. The crime prevention function and the crime detection merit for CCTV system. Criminal Research, 2011(1):64-74.]
[10] Clarke R V G. Situational crime prevention[M]. Monsey, N Y:Criminal Justice Press,1997.
[11] Jeffery C R. Crime prevention through environmental design[M]. Beverly Hills, C A:Sage Publications, 1971.
[12] Mc Cahill M, Norris C. Estimating the extent, sophistication and legality of CCTV in London[M]. London, U K:Palgrave Macmillan, 2003:51-66.
[13] Welsh B C, Farrington D P. Crime prevention effects of closed circuit television:A systematic review[R]. London:Home Office, 2002.
[14] Welsh B C, Farrington D P. Surveillance for crime prevention in public space:Results and policy choices in Britain and America[J]. Criminology&Public Policy, 2004,3(3):497-526.
[15] Welsh B C, Farrington D P. Effects of closed-circuit television on crime[J]. The annals of the American academy of political and social science, 2003, 587(1):110-135.
[16] Gill M, Spriggs A. Assessing the impact of CCTV[R]. London:Home Office, 2005.
[17] Farrington D P, Gill M, Waples S J et al. The effects of closedcircuit television on crime:Meta-analysis of an English national quasi-experimental multi-site evaluation[J]. Journal of Experimental Criminology, 2007, 3(1):21-38.
[18] Ratcliffe J H, Taniguchi T, Taylor R B. The crime reduction effects of public CCTV cameras:A multi-method spatial approach[J]. Justice Quarterly, 2009, 26(4):746-770.
[19] Lim H, Wilcox P. Crime-Reduction effects of open-street CCTV:Conditionality considerations[J]. Justice Quarterly,2017, 34(4):597-626.
[20] Welsh B C, Farrington D P. Public area CCTV and crime prevention:An updated systematic review and meta-analysis[J].Justice Quarterly, 2009, 26(4):716-745.
[21]冯欣,蔚献东.利用视频监控打击盗窃机动车犯罪功效分析——以兰州市为视角[J].江西警察学院学报,2013(2):41-45.[Feng Xin, Wei Xiandong. Analysis of the effectiveness of using video surveillance to combat theft of motor vehicles:A case study from Lanzhou City. Journal of Jiangxi Police College,2013(2):41-45.]
[22]李蕊.论视频监控在多发性侵财犯罪侦防中的应用[J].河南警察学院学报, 2012, 21(6):52-55.[Li Rui. Apply video-monitoring to prevent and investigate frequently-occurred offenses against property. Journal of Henan Police College, 2012, 21(6):52-55.]
[23] Brown B. CCTV in town centres:Three case studies[R]. London:Home Office, 1995.
[24] Cerezo A. CCTV and crime displacement:A quasi-experimental evaluation[J]. European Journal of Criminology, 2013, 10(2):222-236.
[25] Hill R C, Griffiths W E, Lim G C. Principles of econometrics[M]. Hoboken N J:Wiley, 2008.
[26] Cohen L E, Felson M. Social change and crime rate trends:A routine activity approach[J]. American Sociological Review,1979, 44(4):588-608.
[27] Anselin L. Local indicators of spatial association—LISA[J].Geographical Analysis, 1995,27(2):93-115.
[28] Torrente D, Gallo P, Oltra C. Comparing crime reporting factors in EU countries[J]. European Journal on Criminal Policy&Research, 2016, 23(2):1-22.
[29] Piza E L, Caplan J M, Kennedy L W et al. The effects of merging proactive CCTV monitoring with directed police patrol:A randomized controlled trial[J]. Journal of Experimental Criminology, 2015,11(1):43-69.
[2]刘大千,宋伟,修春亮.长春市“两抢两盗”犯罪的空间分析[J].地理科学, 2014, 34(11):1344-1352.[Liu Daqian, Song Wei,Xiu Chunliang. Spatial analysis on robbery, forcible seizure, vehicle theft and burglary in Changchun. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2014, 34(11):1344-1352.]
[3]徐冲,柳林,周素红.基于临近相似性考虑的犯罪热点密度图预测准确性比较——以DP半岛街头抢劫犯罪为例[J].地理科学,2016, 36(1):55-62.[Xu Chong, Liu Lin, Zhou Suhong.The comparison of predictive accuracy of crime hotspot density maps with the consideration of the near similarity:A case study of robberies at DP peninsula. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2016,36(1):55-62.]
[4]李钢,谭然,王会娟,等.中国拐卖儿童犯罪的地理特征研究[J].地理科学,2017, 37(7):1049-1058.[Li Gang, Tan Ran, Wang Huijuan et al. Geographic characteristics of child trafficking crime in China. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2017,37(7):1049-1058.]
[5]张延吉,秦波,唐杰.城市建成环境对居住安全感的影响——基于全国278个城市社区的实证分析[J].地理科学,2017,37(9):1318-1325.[Zhang Yanji, Qin Bo, Tang Jie. The influence of urban built-up environment on sense of residential security:Based on the empirical research of 278 communities in urban China. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2017,37(9):1318-1325.]
[6]周素红,谢蔚翰,宋广文,等.土地利用对街头抢劫影响的空间分异模式:以H市为例[J].地理科学,2017, 37(6):885-894.[Zhou Suhong, Xie Weihan, Song Guangwen et al. The spatial differentiation effect of land use on street robbery:A case study in H City, China. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2017,37(6):885-894.]
[7]姜超,柳林,周素红,等.住区开放与犯罪:国外情境下的实证评估与理论剖析[J].规划师, 2017, 33(8):105-111.[Jiang Chao,Liu Lin, Zhou Shuhong et al. Opening gated community&crime:Empirical evaluation and theoretical analysis in foreign context.Planers,2017, 33(8):105-111.]
[8]姜超,唐焕丽,柳林.中国犯罪地理研究述评[J].地理科学进展,2014, 33(4):561-573.[Jiang Chao, Tang Huanli, Liu Lin. Review of crime geography in China. Progress in Geography,2014, 33(4):561-573.]
[9]杨建国.论视频监控的犯罪预防功能及犯罪侦查价值[J].犯罪研究, 2011(1):64-74.[Yang Jianguo. The crime prevention function and the crime detection merit for CCTV system. Criminal Research, 2011(1):64-74.]
[10] Clarke R V G. Situational crime prevention[M]. Monsey, N Y:Criminal Justice Press,1997.
[11] Jeffery C R. Crime prevention through environmental design[M]. Beverly Hills, C A:Sage Publications, 1971.
[12] Mc Cahill M, Norris C. Estimating the extent, sophistication and legality of CCTV in London[M]. London, U K:Palgrave Macmillan, 2003:51-66.
[13] Welsh B C, Farrington D P. Crime prevention effects of closed circuit television:A systematic review[R]. London:Home Office, 2002.
[14] Welsh B C, Farrington D P. Surveillance for crime prevention in public space:Results and policy choices in Britain and America[J]. Criminology&Public Policy, 2004,3(3):497-526.
[15] Welsh B C, Farrington D P. Effects of closed-circuit television on crime[J]. The annals of the American academy of political and social science, 2003, 587(1):110-135.
[16] Gill M, Spriggs A. Assessing the impact of CCTV[R]. London:Home Office, 2005.
[17] Farrington D P, Gill M, Waples S J et al. The effects of closedcircuit television on crime:Meta-analysis of an English national quasi-experimental multi-site evaluation[J]. Journal of Experimental Criminology, 2007, 3(1):21-38.
[18] Ratcliffe J H, Taniguchi T, Taylor R B. The crime reduction effects of public CCTV cameras:A multi-method spatial approach[J]. Justice Quarterly, 2009, 26(4):746-770.
[19] Lim H, Wilcox P. Crime-Reduction effects of open-street CCTV:Conditionality considerations[J]. Justice Quarterly,2017, 34(4):597-626.
[20] Welsh B C, Farrington D P. Public area CCTV and crime prevention:An updated systematic review and meta-analysis[J].Justice Quarterly, 2009, 26(4):716-745.
[21]冯欣,蔚献东.利用视频监控打击盗窃机动车犯罪功效分析——以兰州市为视角[J].江西警察学院学报,2013(2):41-45.[Feng Xin, Wei Xiandong. Analysis of the effectiveness of using video surveillance to combat theft of motor vehicles:A case study from Lanzhou City. Journal of Jiangxi Police College,2013(2):41-45.]
[22]李蕊.论视频监控在多发性侵财犯罪侦防中的应用[J].河南警察学院学报, 2012, 21(6):52-55.[Li Rui. Apply video-monitoring to prevent and investigate frequently-occurred offenses against property. Journal of Henan Police College, 2012, 21(6):52-55.]
[23] Brown B. CCTV in town centres:Three case studies[R]. London:Home Office, 1995.
[24] Cerezo A. CCTV and crime displacement:A quasi-experimental evaluation[J]. European Journal of Criminology, 2013, 10(2):222-236.
[25] Hill R C, Griffiths W E, Lim G C. Principles of econometrics[M]. Hoboken N J:Wiley, 2008.
[26] Cohen L E, Felson M. Social change and crime rate trends:A routine activity approach[J]. American Sociological Review,1979, 44(4):588-608.
[27] Anselin L. Local indicators of spatial association—LISA[J].Geographical Analysis, 1995,27(2):93-115.
[28] Torrente D, Gallo P, Oltra C. Comparing crime reporting factors in EU countries[J]. European Journal on Criminal Policy&Research, 2016, 23(2):1-22.
[29] Piza E L, Caplan J M, Kennedy L W et al. The effects of merging proactive CCTV monitoring with directed police patrol:A randomized controlled trial[J]. Journal of Experimental Criminology, 2015,11(1):43-69.
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