黄河“八七”分水方案实施30 a回顾与展望
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摘要
回顾了黄河"八七"分水方案出台的历史背景、研究历程以及在实践中不断细化和完善的过程,分析了1999年统一调度之前和之后两个时段的运用情况和效果,提出了变化环境下流域水资源面临的新形势并进行了展望。"八七"分水方案是我国大江大河第一个流域分水方案,对于国家推进水资源科学分配和高效利用具有重大突破和示范意义,在运用中先后开展了"八七"分水方案细化、新径流条件下分水方案完善、用水总量控制红线制定等一系列工作,分水方案得到持续细化、深化、发展和完善,有力支撑了黄河流域水资源管理,成为流域管理重要的技术文件。运用30 a来,"八七"分水方案以及黄河水资源管理实践有效控制了流域用水需求增长,协调了各省(区)用水关系,支撑了流域经济社会可持续发展与生态环境维持,实现了黄河干流20 a不断流。未来黄河流域面临的水资源需求仍将呈现一定的刚性增长,流域水资源管理的关键问题是如何缓解水资源对流域经济社会发展的制约,支撑生态环境良性维持。
The paper reviewed the historical background, research process and continuous development of the Yellow River water allocation scheme in 1987(Scheme 1987 in short), and analyzed the implement processes and effects of the two periods before and after the integrated water regulation in 1999. The new challenges and solutions of the water resources under changing environment in the basin were proposed. Scheme 1987 is the first basin-scale water allocation scheme for large rivers in China. It has great breakthroughs and demonstration significance for China to promote the scientific allocation and efficient use of water resources. Scheme 1987 has been continuously refined, deepened, developed and improved by series of work such as refinement among tributaries and regions, improvement of the water allocation scheme under the new runoff conditions and the formulation of the red line for water consumption control, which strongly supports the water resources management of the Yellow River basin and constitutes an important watershed management technical documentation. In the past 30 years, Scheme 1987 and the Yellow River water resources management practice have effectively restrained the water demand growth of the basin, coordinated the water use relations of the 11 provinces and regions along the river, supported the sustainable socioeconomic development of the basin and the maintenance of the ecological environment, and realized the mainstream continuous flowing for 20 consecutive years. In the future, the demand for water resources in the Yellow River basin will continue to show a certain rigid growth. The key issue of water resources management in the basin is how to alleviate the constraints of water resources on socioeconomic development of the basin, and support the benign maintenance of the ecological environment.
The paper reviewed the historical background, research process and continuous development of the Yellow River water allocation scheme in 1987(Scheme 1987 in short), and analyzed the implement processes and effects of the two periods before and after the integrated water regulation in 1999. The new challenges and solutions of the water resources under changing environment in the basin were proposed. Scheme 1987 is the first basin-scale water allocation scheme for large rivers in China. It has great breakthroughs and demonstration significance for China to promote the scientific allocation and efficient use of water resources. Scheme 1987 has been continuously refined, deepened, developed and improved by series of work such as refinement among tributaries and regions, improvement of the water allocation scheme under the new runoff conditions and the formulation of the red line for water consumption control, which strongly supports the water resources management of the Yellow River basin and constitutes an important watershed management technical documentation. In the past 30 years, Scheme 1987 and the Yellow River water resources management practice have effectively restrained the water demand growth of the basin, coordinated the water use relations of the 11 provinces and regions along the river, supported the sustainable socioeconomic development of the basin and the maintenance of the ecological environment, and realized the mainstream continuous flowing for 20 consecutive years. In the future, the demand for water resources in the Yellow River basin will continue to show a certain rigid growth. The key issue of water resources management in the basin is how to alleviate the constraints of water resources on socioeconomic development of the basin, and support the benign maintenance of the ecological environment.
引文
[1] 王学凤.干旱区水资源分配理论及流域演化模型研究[D].北京:清华大学,2006:1-16.
[2] 郑航.初始水权分配及其调度实现[D].北京:清华大学,2009:1-14.
[3] 王宗志,胡四一,王银堂.基于水量与水质的流域初始二维水权分配模型[J].水利学报,2010,41(5):524-530.
[4] 汪恕诚.水权和水市场:谈实现水资源优化配置的经济手段[J].水电能源科学,2001,19(1):1-5.
[5] GLEICK P H.Roadmap for Sustainable Water Resources in Southwestern North America[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2010,107(50):21300-21305.
[6] 周婷,郑航.科罗拉多河水权分配历程及其启示[J].水科学进展,2015,26(6):893-901.
[7] 胡文俊,杨建基,黄河清.尼罗河流域水资源开发利用与流域管理合作研究[J].资源科学,2011,33(10):1830-1838.
[8] 王浩,党连文,谢新民,等.流域初始水权分配理论与实践[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2008:1-40.
[9] 王煜,彭少明,王慧杰,等.变化环境下黄河与墨累-达令河流域水资源管理策略比较研究[M].北京:科学出版社,2018:52-88.
[10] 王亚华.流域水资源分配如何制度化:以黄河为例[R].北京:清华大学国情研究中心,2012:207-221.
[11] 王亚华.关于我国水价、水权和水市场改革的评论[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2007,17(5):153-158.
[12] 王劲峰,刘昌明,王智勇,等.水资源空间配置的边际效益均衡模型[J].中国科学(D辑:地球科学),2001,31(5):421-427.
[13] 胡智丹,郑航,王忠静.黄河干流水量分配的演变及多数据流分析[J].水力发电学报,2015,34(8):35-43.
[14] 胡鞍钢,王亚华.转型期水资源配置的公共政策:准市场和政治民主协商[J].中国软科学,2000(5):5-11.
[15] 胡继连,葛颜祥.黄河水资源的分配模式与协调机制:兼论黄河水权市场的建设与管理[J].管理世界,2004(8):43-52.
[16] 中国科学院地学部.关于缓解黄河断流的对策与建议[J].地球科学进展,1999,14(1):1-3.
[17] 王振浩.黄河水资源统一管理政策的变迁:基于政策过程理论研究[D].北京:清华大学,2019:25-38.
[18] 水利部黄河水利委员会.黄河流域综合规划(2012—2030年)[M].郑州:黄河水利出版社,2013:160-186.
[19] 王煜,彭少明,郑小康,等.黄河“八七”分水方案的适应性评价与提升策略[EB/OL].(2019-07-29)[2019-08-05].http://kns.cnki.net/kcms/detail/32.1309.P.20190726.1740.033.html.
[20] 王煜,彭少明,郑小康.黄河流域水量分配方案优化及综合调度的关键科学问题[J].水科学进展,2018,29(5):614-624.
[2] 郑航.初始水权分配及其调度实现[D].北京:清华大学,2009:1-14.
[3] 王宗志,胡四一,王银堂.基于水量与水质的流域初始二维水权分配模型[J].水利学报,2010,41(5):524-530.
[4] 汪恕诚.水权和水市场:谈实现水资源优化配置的经济手段[J].水电能源科学,2001,19(1):1-5.
[5] GLEICK P H.Roadmap for Sustainable Water Resources in Southwestern North America[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2010,107(50):21300-21305.
[6] 周婷,郑航.科罗拉多河水权分配历程及其启示[J].水科学进展,2015,26(6):893-901.
[7] 胡文俊,杨建基,黄河清.尼罗河流域水资源开发利用与流域管理合作研究[J].资源科学,2011,33(10):1830-1838.
[8] 王浩,党连文,谢新民,等.流域初始水权分配理论与实践[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2008:1-40.
[9] 王煜,彭少明,王慧杰,等.变化环境下黄河与墨累-达令河流域水资源管理策略比较研究[M].北京:科学出版社,2018:52-88.
[10] 王亚华.流域水资源分配如何制度化:以黄河为例[R].北京:清华大学国情研究中心,2012:207-221.
[11] 王亚华.关于我国水价、水权和水市场改革的评论[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2007,17(5):153-158.
[12] 王劲峰,刘昌明,王智勇,等.水资源空间配置的边际效益均衡模型[J].中国科学(D辑:地球科学),2001,31(5):421-427.
[13] 胡智丹,郑航,王忠静.黄河干流水量分配的演变及多数据流分析[J].水力发电学报,2015,34(8):35-43.
[14] 胡鞍钢,王亚华.转型期水资源配置的公共政策:准市场和政治民主协商[J].中国软科学,2000(5):5-11.
[15] 胡继连,葛颜祥.黄河水资源的分配模式与协调机制:兼论黄河水权市场的建设与管理[J].管理世界,2004(8):43-52.
[16] 中国科学院地学部.关于缓解黄河断流的对策与建议[J].地球科学进展,1999,14(1):1-3.
[17] 王振浩.黄河水资源统一管理政策的变迁:基于政策过程理论研究[D].北京:清华大学,2019:25-38.
[18] 水利部黄河水利委员会.黄河流域综合规划(2012—2030年)[M].郑州:黄河水利出版社,2013:160-186.
[19] 王煜,彭少明,郑小康,等.黄河“八七”分水方案的适应性评价与提升策略[EB/OL].(2019-07-29)[2019-08-05].http://kns.cnki.net/kcms/detail/32.1309.P.20190726.1740.033.html.
[20] 王煜,彭少明,郑小康.黄河流域水量分配方案优化及综合调度的关键科学问题[J].水科学进展,2018,29(5):614-624.
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