世界能源发展趋势与中国能源未来发展方向
|
摘要
当前,全球能源将与经济出现脱钩,化石能源仍是世界的主导燃料,新兴经济体引领全球能源消费增长,可再生能源成为全球应对气候变化的重大举措,电力领域迎来重大转型,核电有望成为最具竞争力的电力脱碳能源,煤炭的核心地位逐步降低,技术创新打破可再生能源的制约,可再生能源将重塑地缘政治格局。面对世界能源发展趋势,中国必须以全球思维应对能源领域的挑战,依托"一带一路"建设,扩大和深化国际能源合作;加强能源领域科技创新,引领全球能源转型;立足国内挖潜,构建多元化的能源储备体系;打造具有国际竞争力的"核心企业",拓展上中下游产业链。
At present, global energy will be decoupled from the economy. Fossil energy is still the dominant fuel in the world. Emerging economies are leading the growth of global energy consumption. Renewable energy has become a major global measure to deal with climate change. There is a major transformation in the field of electricity. Nuclear power is expected to become the most competitive decarbonized energy for electricity. Coal's core position is gradually declining. Technological innovation breaks the restriction of renewable energy. Renewable energy will reshape the geopolitical landscape. Facing the trend of world energy development, China must cope with challenges in the energy field with global thinking, expand and deepen international energy cooperation on the basis of construction of the Belt and Road, strengthen technological innovation in the energy field, lead the global energy transformation, build a diversified energy reserve system based on domestic potential exploitation, establish internationally competitive "core enterprises" and extend the upstream, middle and downstream of industrial chains.
At present, global energy will be decoupled from the economy. Fossil energy is still the dominant fuel in the world. Emerging economies are leading the growth of global energy consumption. Renewable energy has become a major global measure to deal with climate change. There is a major transformation in the field of electricity. Nuclear power is expected to become the most competitive decarbonized energy for electricity. Coal's core position is gradually declining. Technological innovation breaks the restriction of renewable energy. Renewable energy will reshape the geopolitical landscape. Facing the trend of world energy development, China must cope with challenges in the energy field with global thinking, expand and deepen international energy cooperation on the basis of construction of the Belt and Road, strengthen technological innovation in the energy field, lead the global energy transformation, build a diversified energy reserve system based on domestic potential exploitation, establish internationally competitive "core enterprises" and extend the upstream, middle and downstream of industrial chains.
引文
[1] IEA.Global Energy&CO2 Status Report[R].IEA,2019.
[2]周问雪.全球能源未来发展的五个趋势[N].中国石油报,2018-10-23(02).
[3] BP.世界能源展望2019[R].BP,2019.
[4] OPEC.World Oil Outlook 2040[R].OPEC,2018.
[5] Exxon Mobil.Outlook for Energy:A View to 2040[R].Exxon Mobil,2018.
[6] GECF.Global Gas Outlook 2040[R].GECF,2018.
[7] IEA.World Energy Outlook 2018[R].IEA,2019.
[8] EIA.World Energy Outlook 2018[R]EIA,2018.
[9] IEEJ.Outlook 2018[R].IEEJ,2018.
[10] IRENA.Renewable Capacity Statistics 2019[R].IRENA,2019.
[11] BNEF.Clean Energy Investment Exceeded$300 Billion Once Again in 2018[EB/OL].(2019-01-16)[2019-05-05].http://about.bnef.com/blog/clean-energy-investmentexceeded-300-billion-2018/.
[12] BNEF.Battery Power's Latest Plunge in Costs Threatens Coal,Gas[EB/OL].(2019-03-26)[2019-05-05].http://about.bnef.com/blog/battery-powers-latest-plunge-coststhreatens-coal-gas/.
[13] IRENA.A New World:The Geopolitics of the Energy Transformation[R].IRENA,2019.
[14] IRENA.Global Energy Transformation:A Roadmap To2050(2019)[R].IRENA,2019.
[15] BNEF.New Energy Outlook 2018[EB/OL].[2019-05-05].http://about.bnef.com/new-energy-outlook/.
[16] IAEA.Reactor Status Reports[EB/OL].[2019-05-05].http://pris.iaea.org/PRIS/World Statistics/Operational Reactors By Country.aspx.
[17] IPCC.Global Warming of 1.5oC[R].IPCC,2019.
[18]経済産業省資源エネルギー庁.第5次エネルギー基本計画[R].経済産業省資源エネルギー庁,2018.
[19]凌月明,鞠建华,蒋文彪,等.2018年中国矿产资源报告[M].北京:地质出版社,2018.
[20] BP.世界能源统计年鉴2018[R].BP,2018.
[21]国家能源局.2018年可再生能源并网运行情况介绍[EB/OL].(2019-01-28)[2019-05-05].http://www.nea.gov.cn/2019-01/28/c_137780519.htm.
[22]中国国家统计局.2018年国民经济和社会发展统计公报[EB/OL].(2019-02-28)[2019-05-05].http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/zxfb/201902/t20190228_1651265.html.
[23]张所续.从世界能源发展趋势看中国能源安全[J].中国能源,2018,40(5):30-33.
[2]周问雪.全球能源未来发展的五个趋势[N].中国石油报,2018-10-23(02).
[3] BP.世界能源展望2019[R].BP,2019.
[4] OPEC.World Oil Outlook 2040[R].OPEC,2018.
[5] Exxon Mobil.Outlook for Energy:A View to 2040[R].Exxon Mobil,2018.
[6] GECF.Global Gas Outlook 2040[R].GECF,2018.
[7] IEA.World Energy Outlook 2018[R].IEA,2019.
[8] EIA.World Energy Outlook 2018[R]EIA,2018.
[9] IEEJ.Outlook 2018[R].IEEJ,2018.
[10] IRENA.Renewable Capacity Statistics 2019[R].IRENA,2019.
[11] BNEF.Clean Energy Investment Exceeded$300 Billion Once Again in 2018[EB/OL].(2019-01-16)[2019-05-05].http://about.bnef.com/blog/clean-energy-investmentexceeded-300-billion-2018/.
[12] BNEF.Battery Power's Latest Plunge in Costs Threatens Coal,Gas[EB/OL].(2019-03-26)[2019-05-05].http://about.bnef.com/blog/battery-powers-latest-plunge-coststhreatens-coal-gas/.
[13] IRENA.A New World:The Geopolitics of the Energy Transformation[R].IRENA,2019.
[14] IRENA.Global Energy Transformation:A Roadmap To2050(2019)[R].IRENA,2019.
[15] BNEF.New Energy Outlook 2018[EB/OL].[2019-05-05].http://about.bnef.com/new-energy-outlook/.
[16] IAEA.Reactor Status Reports[EB/OL].[2019-05-05].http://pris.iaea.org/PRIS/World Statistics/Operational Reactors By Country.aspx.
[17] IPCC.Global Warming of 1.5oC[R].IPCC,2019.
[18]経済産業省資源エネルギー庁.第5次エネルギー基本計画[R].経済産業省資源エネルギー庁,2018.
[19]凌月明,鞠建华,蒋文彪,等.2018年中国矿产资源报告[M].北京:地质出版社,2018.
[20] BP.世界能源统计年鉴2018[R].BP,2018.
[21]国家能源局.2018年可再生能源并网运行情况介绍[EB/OL].(2019-01-28)[2019-05-05].http://www.nea.gov.cn/2019-01/28/c_137780519.htm.
[22]中国国家统计局.2018年国民经济和社会发展统计公报[EB/OL].(2019-02-28)[2019-05-05].http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/zxfb/201902/t20190228_1651265.html.
[23]张所续.从世界能源发展趋势看中国能源安全[J].中国能源,2018,40(5):30-33.