碳市场合理初始价格区间测算
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摘要
当前中国碳试点市场价格与市场供求之间存在脱节,碳定价体系未能满足碳市场发展需求。为此,本文基于脱钩理论,运用随机分析方法从企业视角度量碳成本,构建影响企业碳成本的决定方程,并进一步模拟"企业-政府-市场"与初始碳价格之间的联动关系,得到符合中国碳市场发展规律的初始价格波动区间。结果显示:①政府惩罚规模与配额短缺概率是制约控排企业获取碳交易收益的核心,保证碳市场健康发展的前提是平衡"企业-政府-市场"之间关系。②初始碳价格设定与政府期望碳市场达到的减排效率直接相关,当前经济条件下全国统一市场初始碳价格的合理设定区间为[41,52]元/t。③惩罚规模对于初始碳价格设定的解释程度达到97%,惩罚机制是现阶段政府层面引导碳市场健康发展的最优工具。④市场效率与减排目标是长期影响碳价格设定的主要指标,碳市场健康发展的重要前提之一是设定"市场-政府"双向初始价格体系。本文为丰富中国碳市场价格理论、科学地设定初始碳价格提供了理论基础与实证支持。
Currently there is a disconnection between carbon price and market supply-and-demand in China's carbon pilot market and the carbon pricing system has failed to meet the development needs of carbon markets. To address this problem, this study used the stochastic analysis method to measure carbon cost from the perspective of firms, and developed a determinant equation that affects corporate carbon costs based on the decoupling theory. Using this equation, we simulated the linkages between firm-government-market and initial carbon price, thereby obtaining the fluctuation interval of such price that conforms to the pattern of China's carbon market development. Through empirical tests, we obtained the following results.(1) Government's penalty cost and the probability of quota shortage both are key factors that restrict emission control firms to obtain carbon trading income, and a premise to ensure the sound development of carbon market is to balance the relation among firms, the government, and the market.(2) The setting of initial carbon price is directly related to the emission reduction efficiency that is expected by the government in the carbon market, and in the current economic environment, the reasonable setting range of initial carbon price in the national unified market is [41, 52] Yuan/t.(3) Penalty cost explains 97% of the setting of initial carbon price, and penalty mechanism is the best tool that can lead to the sound development of carbon markets at the government level currently.(4) Both market efficiency and emission reduction goal are main indicators that affect carbon price setting in the long run, and one important premise for the sound development of carbon market is to set up a two-way initial price system of "market-government." This article provides theoretical underpinnings as well as empirical support for enriching China's carbon market price theory and setting the initial carbon price scientifically.
Currently there is a disconnection between carbon price and market supply-and-demand in China's carbon pilot market and the carbon pricing system has failed to meet the development needs of carbon markets. To address this problem, this study used the stochastic analysis method to measure carbon cost from the perspective of firms, and developed a determinant equation that affects corporate carbon costs based on the decoupling theory. Using this equation, we simulated the linkages between firm-government-market and initial carbon price, thereby obtaining the fluctuation interval of such price that conforms to the pattern of China's carbon market development. Through empirical tests, we obtained the following results.(1) Government's penalty cost and the probability of quota shortage both are key factors that restrict emission control firms to obtain carbon trading income, and a premise to ensure the sound development of carbon market is to balance the relation among firms, the government, and the market.(2) The setting of initial carbon price is directly related to the emission reduction efficiency that is expected by the government in the carbon market, and in the current economic environment, the reasonable setting range of initial carbon price in the national unified market is [41, 52] Yuan/t.(3) Penalty cost explains 97% of the setting of initial carbon price, and penalty mechanism is the best tool that can lead to the sound development of carbon markets at the government level currently.(4) Both market efficiency and emission reduction goal are main indicators that affect carbon price setting in the long run, and one important premise for the sound development of carbon market is to set up a two-way initial price system of "market-government." This article provides theoretical underpinnings as well as empirical support for enriching China's carbon market price theory and setting the initial carbon price scientifically.
引文
[1]吴恒煜,胡根华.国外碳排放交易问题研究述评[J].资源科学,2013,35(9):1828-1838.[Wu H Y,Hu G H.Review of carbon emission trading outside China[J].Resources Science,2013,35(9):1828-1838.]
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[4]Song Y Z,Liang D P,Liu T S,et al.The effect of current carbon policy on carbon price:An investigation of the Shanghai Emission Trading Scheme Pilot[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2018,181:374-384.
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[6]Song Y Z,Liu T S,Li Y,et al.Region division of China’s carbon market based on the provincial/municipal carbon intensity[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2017,164:1312-1323.
[7]Dai F,Xiong L,Ma D.How to set the allowance benchmarking for cement industry in China’s carbon market:Marginal analysis and the case of the Hubei Emission Trading Pilot[J].Sustainability,2017,doi:10.3390/su9020322.
[8]Song Y Z,Liu T S,Liang D P,et al.A fuzzy stochastic model for carbon price prediction under the effect of demand-related policy in China’s carbon market[J].Ecological Economics,2019,157:253-265.
[9]谭秀杰,王班班,黄锦鹏.湖北碳交易试点价格稳定机制、评估及启示[J].气候变化研究进展,2018,14(3):310-317.[Tan X J,Wang B B,Huang J P.Evaluation on carbon price stabilization mechanism of Hubei ETS pilot and its policy implications[J].Climate Change Research,2018,14(3):310-317.]
[10]陈波.基于碳交易市场连接的宏观调控机制研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(10):18-22.[Chen B.Research on linkage of China’s ETS and macro-control mechanism[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2015,25(10):18-22.]
[11]Tan X P,Wang X Y.The market performance of carbon trading in China:A theoretical framework of structure-conduct-performance[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2017,159:410-424.
[12]Wang C R,Du X M,Liu Y.Measuring spatial spillover effects of industrial emissions:A method and case study in Anhui province,China[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2016,141:1240-1248.
[13]Xia Y,Tang Z P.The impacts of emissions accounting methods on an imperfect competitive carbon trading market[J].Energy,2017,119:67-76.
[14]赵永斌,丛建辉,杨军,等.中国碳市场配额分配方法探索[J].资源科学,2019,41(5):872-883.[Zhao Y B,Cong J H,Yang J,et al.An innovative allowance allocation method in China’s unified national emissions trading scheme[J].Resources Science,2019,41(5):872-883.]
[15]陈波,孟萌.基于最优拍卖数量和资金再分配模型的碳市场有偿分配机制研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(8):10-15.[Chen B,Meng M.Allocation mechanism of carbon market based on the optimized auction and revenue recycling model[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2016,26(8):10-15.]
[16]Betz T,Owen A D.The implications of Australia’s carbon pollution reduction scheme for its National Electricity Market[J].Energy Policy,2010,38(9):4966-4977.
[17]Hasegawa M,Salant S.Cap-and-trade programs under delayed compliance:Consequences of interim injections of permits[J].Journal of Public Economics,2014,119:24-34.
[18]Ervine K.How low can it go?Analysing the political economy of carbon market design and low carbon prices[J].International Development Studies Program,2018,23(6):690-710.
[19]邓春雨,张紫禾,张宁.碳排放报告与核查实务及疑难问题初探[J].资源节约与环保,2018,(4):115-116.[Deng C Y,Zhang Z H,Zhang N.The exploration on carbon emission reporting and verification practice as well as their problems[J].Resources Economization&Environment Protection,2018,(4):115-116.]
[20]王倩,高翠云.中国省际碳影子价格与碳生产率非线性关联研究[J].资源科学,2018,40(10):2118-2131.[Wang Q,Gao C Y.Research on the nonlinear correlation between provincial carbon shadow price and carbon productivity[J].Resources Science,2018,40(10):2118-2131.]
[21]Peng J,Yu B Y,Liao H,et al.Marginal abatement costs of CO2emissions in the thermal power sector:A regional empirical analysis from China[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2018,171:163-174.
[22]Cui L B,Fan Y,Zhu L,et al.How will the emissions trading scheme save cost for achieving China’s 2020 carbon intensity reduction target?[J].Applied Energy,2014,136:1043-1052.
[23]Cetin U,Verschuere M.Pricing and hedging in carbon emissions markets[J].International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance,2009,12(7):949-967.
[24]王文举,赵艳.全球碳市场研究及对中国碳市场建设的启示[J].东北亚论坛,2019,28(2):97-128.[Wang W J,Zhao Y.Research on global carbon market and its enlightenment to China’s national carbon market construction[J].Northeast Asia Forum,2019,28(2):97-128.]
[25]宋亚植,梁大鹏,宋晓秋.不同路径下能源价格对碳价格的传导关系研究[J].运筹与管理,2018,27(8):109-115.[Song Y Z,Liang D P,Song X Q.The linkage relationship between energy price and carbon price under different paths[J].Operations Research and Management Science,2018,27(8):109-115.]
[26]Gradus R,Smulders S.The trade-off between environmental care and long-term growth-pollution in three prototype models[J].Journal of Economics,1993,58(1):25-51.
[27]Bréchet T,Hritonenko N,Yatsenko Y.Adaptation and mitigation in long-term climate policy[J].Environmental and Resource Economics,2013,55(2):217-243.
[28]Koch N,Fuss S,Grosjean G,et al.Causes of the EU ETS price drop:Recession,CDM,renewable policies or a bit of everything?New evidence[J].Energ Policy,2014,73:676-685.
[29]Guo M,Zhang Y W,Ye W L,et al.Pricing the permission of pollution:Optimal control based simulation of payments for the initial emission allowance in China[J].Journal of Cleaner Produciton,2018,174:139-49.
[30]Tang B J,Wang X Y,Wei Y M.Quantities versus prices for best social welfare in carbon reduction:A literature review[J].Applied Energy,2019,233:554-564.
[31]Cai B F,Wang J N,He J,et al.Evaluating CO2emission performance in China’s cement industry:An enterprise perspective[J].Applied Energy,2016,166:191-200.
[32]Hong J K,Shen G Q,Peng Y,et al.Reprint of:Uncertainty analysis for measuring greenhouse gas emissions in the building construction phase:A case study in China[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2017,163:420-432.
[33]朱庆华,王一雷,田一辉.基于系统动力学的地方政府与制造企业碳减排演化博弈分析[J].运筹与管理,2014,23(3):71-82.[Zhu Q H,Wang Y L,Tian Y H.Analysis of an evolutionary game between local governments and manufacturing enterprises under carbon reduction policies based on system dynamics[J].Operations Research and Management Science,2014,23(3):71-82.]
[34]Zhao X G,Wu L,Li A.Research on the efficiency of carbon trading market in China[J].Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2017,79:1-8.
[35]Holt C A,Shobe W M.Reprint of:Price and quantity collars for stabilizing emission allowance prices:Laboratory experiments on the EU ETS market stability reserve[J].Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,2016,80:69-86.
[36]van Groenigen K J,Qi X,Osenberg C W,et al.Faster decomposition under increased atmospheric CO2limits soil carbon storage[J].Science,2014,344(6183):508-509.
[37]Le QuéréC,Andrew R M,Friedlingstein P,et al.Global carbon budget 2018[J].Earth System Science Data,2018,10(4):2141-2194.
[38]程永伟,穆东.我国试点碳市场运行效率评价研究[J].科技管理研究,2017,37(4):96-100.[Cheng Y W,Mu D.Study on the operation efficiency evaluation of pilot carbon trading markets in China[J].Science and Technology Management Research,2017,37(4):96-100.]
[39]Le QuéréC,Andrew R M,Friedlingstein P,et al.Global carbon budget 2017[J].Earth System Science Data,2018,10:405-448.
[40]Liao L P,Du M Z,Wang B,et al.The impact of educational investment on sustainable economic growth in Guangdong,China:Acointegration and causality analysis[J].Sustainability,2019,DOI:10.3390/su11030766.
[41]汪泽方.碳市场将现“中国样本”[N].人民日报海外版,2017-11-21(08).[Wang Z F.Carbon Market Will Present“China Sample”[N].People’s Daily Overseas Edition,2017-11-21(08).]
[2]Zhang L H,Zhou H,Liu Y Y,et al.The optimal carbon emission reduction and prices with cap and trade mechanism and competition[J].International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health,2018,doi:10.3390/ijerph15112570.
[3]公丕芹,李昕旸.碳交易机制下可再生能源投资价值与投资时机研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(3):22-29.[Gong PQ,Li X Y.Study on the investment value and investment opportunity of renewable energies under the carbon trading system[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2017,27(3):22-29.]
[4]Song Y Z,Liang D P,Liu T S,et al.The effect of current carbon policy on carbon price:An investigation of the Shanghai Emission Trading Scheme Pilot[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2018,181:374-384.
[5]Chang C L,Mai T K,McAleer M.Establishing national carbon emission prices for China[J].Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2019,106:1-16.
[6]Song Y Z,Liu T S,Li Y,et al.Region division of China’s carbon market based on the provincial/municipal carbon intensity[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2017,164:1312-1323.
[7]Dai F,Xiong L,Ma D.How to set the allowance benchmarking for cement industry in China’s carbon market:Marginal analysis and the case of the Hubei Emission Trading Pilot[J].Sustainability,2017,doi:10.3390/su9020322.
[8]Song Y Z,Liu T S,Liang D P,et al.A fuzzy stochastic model for carbon price prediction under the effect of demand-related policy in China’s carbon market[J].Ecological Economics,2019,157:253-265.
[9]谭秀杰,王班班,黄锦鹏.湖北碳交易试点价格稳定机制、评估及启示[J].气候变化研究进展,2018,14(3):310-317.[Tan X J,Wang B B,Huang J P.Evaluation on carbon price stabilization mechanism of Hubei ETS pilot and its policy implications[J].Climate Change Research,2018,14(3):310-317.]
[10]陈波.基于碳交易市场连接的宏观调控机制研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(10):18-22.[Chen B.Research on linkage of China’s ETS and macro-control mechanism[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2015,25(10):18-22.]
[11]Tan X P,Wang X Y.The market performance of carbon trading in China:A theoretical framework of structure-conduct-performance[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2017,159:410-424.
[12]Wang C R,Du X M,Liu Y.Measuring spatial spillover effects of industrial emissions:A method and case study in Anhui province,China[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2016,141:1240-1248.
[13]Xia Y,Tang Z P.The impacts of emissions accounting methods on an imperfect competitive carbon trading market[J].Energy,2017,119:67-76.
[14]赵永斌,丛建辉,杨军,等.中国碳市场配额分配方法探索[J].资源科学,2019,41(5):872-883.[Zhao Y B,Cong J H,Yang J,et al.An innovative allowance allocation method in China’s unified national emissions trading scheme[J].Resources Science,2019,41(5):872-883.]
[15]陈波,孟萌.基于最优拍卖数量和资金再分配模型的碳市场有偿分配机制研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(8):10-15.[Chen B,Meng M.Allocation mechanism of carbon market based on the optimized auction and revenue recycling model[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2016,26(8):10-15.]
[16]Betz T,Owen A D.The implications of Australia’s carbon pollution reduction scheme for its National Electricity Market[J].Energy Policy,2010,38(9):4966-4977.
[17]Hasegawa M,Salant S.Cap-and-trade programs under delayed compliance:Consequences of interim injections of permits[J].Journal of Public Economics,2014,119:24-34.
[18]Ervine K.How low can it go?Analysing the political economy of carbon market design and low carbon prices[J].International Development Studies Program,2018,23(6):690-710.
[19]邓春雨,张紫禾,张宁.碳排放报告与核查实务及疑难问题初探[J].资源节约与环保,2018,(4):115-116.[Deng C Y,Zhang Z H,Zhang N.The exploration on carbon emission reporting and verification practice as well as their problems[J].Resources Economization&Environment Protection,2018,(4):115-116.]
[20]王倩,高翠云.中国省际碳影子价格与碳生产率非线性关联研究[J].资源科学,2018,40(10):2118-2131.[Wang Q,Gao C Y.Research on the nonlinear correlation between provincial carbon shadow price and carbon productivity[J].Resources Science,2018,40(10):2118-2131.]
[21]Peng J,Yu B Y,Liao H,et al.Marginal abatement costs of CO2emissions in the thermal power sector:A regional empirical analysis from China[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2018,171:163-174.
[22]Cui L B,Fan Y,Zhu L,et al.How will the emissions trading scheme save cost for achieving China’s 2020 carbon intensity reduction target?[J].Applied Energy,2014,136:1043-1052.
[23]Cetin U,Verschuere M.Pricing and hedging in carbon emissions markets[J].International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance,2009,12(7):949-967.
[24]王文举,赵艳.全球碳市场研究及对中国碳市场建设的启示[J].东北亚论坛,2019,28(2):97-128.[Wang W J,Zhao Y.Research on global carbon market and its enlightenment to China’s national carbon market construction[J].Northeast Asia Forum,2019,28(2):97-128.]
[25]宋亚植,梁大鹏,宋晓秋.不同路径下能源价格对碳价格的传导关系研究[J].运筹与管理,2018,27(8):109-115.[Song Y Z,Liang D P,Song X Q.The linkage relationship between energy price and carbon price under different paths[J].Operations Research and Management Science,2018,27(8):109-115.]
[26]Gradus R,Smulders S.The trade-off between environmental care and long-term growth-pollution in three prototype models[J].Journal of Economics,1993,58(1):25-51.
[27]Bréchet T,Hritonenko N,Yatsenko Y.Adaptation and mitigation in long-term climate policy[J].Environmental and Resource Economics,2013,55(2):217-243.
[28]Koch N,Fuss S,Grosjean G,et al.Causes of the EU ETS price drop:Recession,CDM,renewable policies or a bit of everything?New evidence[J].Energ Policy,2014,73:676-685.
[29]Guo M,Zhang Y W,Ye W L,et al.Pricing the permission of pollution:Optimal control based simulation of payments for the initial emission allowance in China[J].Journal of Cleaner Produciton,2018,174:139-49.
[30]Tang B J,Wang X Y,Wei Y M.Quantities versus prices for best social welfare in carbon reduction:A literature review[J].Applied Energy,2019,233:554-564.
[31]Cai B F,Wang J N,He J,et al.Evaluating CO2emission performance in China’s cement industry:An enterprise perspective[J].Applied Energy,2016,166:191-200.
[32]Hong J K,Shen G Q,Peng Y,et al.Reprint of:Uncertainty analysis for measuring greenhouse gas emissions in the building construction phase:A case study in China[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2017,163:420-432.
[33]朱庆华,王一雷,田一辉.基于系统动力学的地方政府与制造企业碳减排演化博弈分析[J].运筹与管理,2014,23(3):71-82.[Zhu Q H,Wang Y L,Tian Y H.Analysis of an evolutionary game between local governments and manufacturing enterprises under carbon reduction policies based on system dynamics[J].Operations Research and Management Science,2014,23(3):71-82.]
[34]Zhao X G,Wu L,Li A.Research on the efficiency of carbon trading market in China[J].Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2017,79:1-8.
[35]Holt C A,Shobe W M.Reprint of:Price and quantity collars for stabilizing emission allowance prices:Laboratory experiments on the EU ETS market stability reserve[J].Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,2016,80:69-86.
[36]van Groenigen K J,Qi X,Osenberg C W,et al.Faster decomposition under increased atmospheric CO2limits soil carbon storage[J].Science,2014,344(6183):508-509.
[37]Le QuéréC,Andrew R M,Friedlingstein P,et al.Global carbon budget 2018[J].Earth System Science Data,2018,10(4):2141-2194.
[38]程永伟,穆东.我国试点碳市场运行效率评价研究[J].科技管理研究,2017,37(4):96-100.[Cheng Y W,Mu D.Study on the operation efficiency evaluation of pilot carbon trading markets in China[J].Science and Technology Management Research,2017,37(4):96-100.]
[39]Le QuéréC,Andrew R M,Friedlingstein P,et al.Global carbon budget 2017[J].Earth System Science Data,2018,10:405-448.
[40]Liao L P,Du M Z,Wang B,et al.The impact of educational investment on sustainable economic growth in Guangdong,China:Acointegration and causality analysis[J].Sustainability,2019,DOI:10.3390/su11030766.
[41]汪泽方.碳市场将现“中国样本”[N].人民日报海外版,2017-11-21(08).[Wang Z F.Carbon Market Will Present“China Sample”[N].People’s Daily Overseas Edition,2017-11-21(08).]