基于突变级数法的广东省资源环境承载力动态
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摘要
资源环境承载力是可持续发展的重要基础,实现其有效评价对建设生态文明社会有着重要意义。本文从经济、社会、资源和环境4个方面选取14个评价指标,基于突变理论采用突变级数法,评估了广东省21个地级市2000—2015年城市综合资源环境承载力。结果表明:近15年广东省各市综合资源环境承载力指数整体上呈小幅度下降趋势;广东省从大部分地区处在高承载力范围逐渐变为珠三角地区城市综合承载力指数相对高而东莞、深圳城市综合承载力较弱;各子系统对城市综合承载力影响不同;资源环境复合系统为承载力支撑基础,经济社会复合系统为承载力的有力保障;其中,江门、汕头、惠州、佛山等市城市综合资源环境承载力指数最高,整体上表现为经济水平与资源环境越平衡的地区城市综合承载力越高;各子系统承载力指数变化呈现不同形态;经济子系统突显城市经济发展状况,经济水平越高则其承载力越高,整体呈现小幅增长模式,而流动人口加剧,导致社会子系统承载力指数出现小幅下降;资源子系统承载力基于资源保有量相对稳定的前提下状态较为稳定;环境子系统承载力则因环境污染而呈现下降趋势;广东省各市子系统承载力指数空间差异显著;经济社会复合系统承载力指数分布基本与各市的经济发展水平相当;资源环境复合系统承载力指数分布与广东省地形大致相符,呈现粤东粤西高,并逐渐向东莞、深圳珠三角地区降低。
The carrying capacity of resources and environment is important basis for sustainable development. Effective evaluation of carrying capacity of resources and environment is of great significance to the construction of ecological civilization society. Based on catastrophe progression method in catastrophe theory,we used 14 evaluation indices from four aspects of economy,society,resources and environment to evaluate the carrying capacity of urban comprehensive resources and environment of 21 prefecture-level cities in Guangdong Province from 2000 to 2015. The results showed that in the 15 years,the index of comprehensive resources and environmental carrying capacity of Guangdong Province slightly decreased on the whole. Guangdong gradually changed from a high bearing-capacity province in most areas to a relatively high comprehensive bearing capacity index in the Pearl River Delta region and relatively weak comprehensive bearing capacity in Dongguan and Shenzhen. Each subsystem had different influence on the comprehensive carrying capacity of the city. The composite system of resources and environment is the supporting foundation of carrying capacity,while the composite system of economy and society is the powerful guarantee of carrying capacity. Among all cities,Jiangmen,Shantou,Huizhou and Foshan had the highest comprehensive carrying capacity index of resources and environment,indicating that the more balanced the economic level and resources and environment,the higher the comprehensive carrying capacity of cities. The bearing capacity index of each subsystem changed with different forms. The economic subsystem highlighted the status of urban economic development. The higher the economic level,the higher the carrying capacity,the smaller the overall growth pattern. Due to the aggravation of floating population,the carrying capacity index of the social subsystem declined slightly. Based on the premise of relative stability of resources,the carrying capacity index of resource subsystem was relatively stable. The carrying capacity index of environmental subsystem showed a downward trend due to environmental pollution. Spatially,the differences of bearing capacity index of the subsystems in Guangdong were significant. The index of carrying capacity of economic and social composite system was basically matched with the economic development level of each city. Meanwhile,the index of carrying capacity of the composite system of resources and environment was roughly consistent with the topography of Guangdong,with the index being high in eastern and western Guangdong,and gradual decline in the Pearl River Delta in Dongguan and Shenzhen.
The carrying capacity of resources and environment is important basis for sustainable development. Effective evaluation of carrying capacity of resources and environment is of great significance to the construction of ecological civilization society. Based on catastrophe progression method in catastrophe theory,we used 14 evaluation indices from four aspects of economy,society,resources and environment to evaluate the carrying capacity of urban comprehensive resources and environment of 21 prefecture-level cities in Guangdong Province from 2000 to 2015. The results showed that in the 15 years,the index of comprehensive resources and environmental carrying capacity of Guangdong Province slightly decreased on the whole. Guangdong gradually changed from a high bearing-capacity province in most areas to a relatively high comprehensive bearing capacity index in the Pearl River Delta region and relatively weak comprehensive bearing capacity in Dongguan and Shenzhen. Each subsystem had different influence on the comprehensive carrying capacity of the city. The composite system of resources and environment is the supporting foundation of carrying capacity,while the composite system of economy and society is the powerful guarantee of carrying capacity. Among all cities,Jiangmen,Shantou,Huizhou and Foshan had the highest comprehensive carrying capacity index of resources and environment,indicating that the more balanced the economic level and resources and environment,the higher the comprehensive carrying capacity of cities. The bearing capacity index of each subsystem changed with different forms. The economic subsystem highlighted the status of urban economic development. The higher the economic level,the higher the carrying capacity,the smaller the overall growth pattern. Due to the aggravation of floating population,the carrying capacity index of the social subsystem declined slightly. Based on the premise of relative stability of resources,the carrying capacity index of resource subsystem was relatively stable. The carrying capacity index of environmental subsystem showed a downward trend due to environmental pollution. Spatially,the differences of bearing capacity index of the subsystems in Guangdong were significant. The index of carrying capacity of economic and social composite system was basically matched with the economic development level of each city. Meanwhile,the index of carrying capacity of the composite system of resources and environment was roughly consistent with the topography of Guangdong,with the index being high in eastern and western Guangdong,and gradual decline in the Pearl River Delta in Dongguan and Shenzhen.
引文
卞子浩,赵永华,王晓峰,等.2016.陕西省生态足迹及其驱动力.生态学杂志,35(5):1316-1322.
陈海波,刘旸旸.2013.江苏省城市资源环境承载力的空间差异.城市问题,(3):33-37.
陈云峰,孙殿义,陆根法.2006.突变级数法在生态适宜度评价中的应用:以镇江新区为例.生态学报,26(8):2587-2593.
邓伟.2010.山区资源环境承载力研究现状与关键问题.地理研究,29(6):956-969.
何雄浪.2016.自然资源禀赋与区域发展:“资源福音”还是“资源诅咒”?西南民族大学学报:人文社科版,(2):120-125.
纪学朋,白永平,杜海波,等.2017.甘肃省生态承载力空间定量评价及耦合协调性.生态学报,37(17):5861-5670.
姜秋香,付强,王子龙.2011.基于粒子群优化投影寻踪模型的区域土地资源承载力综合评价.农业工程学报,27(11):319-324.
李彩惠,霍海鹰,李雅洁,等.2015.基于突变级数模型的城市低碳竞争力评价及障碍因子诊断分析.资源科学,37(7):1474-1481.
刘凯,任建兰,程钰,等.2016.中国城镇化的资源环境承载力响应演变与驱动因素.城市发展研究,23(1):27-33.
刘凯,任建兰,张理娟,等.2016.人地关系视角下的城镇化的资源环境承载力响应---以山东省为例.经济地理,36(9):11-84.
刘明,廖和平,李涛,等.2015.基于模糊物元的重庆市资源环境承载力动态评价研究.中国农学通报,31(20):113-118.
刘启君,黄曼,宋艺欣,等.2016.基于灰色关联TOPSIS模型的武汉市环境承载力评价及障碍因子诊断.生态经济,32(5):191-194.
罗浩.2007.自然资源与经济增长:资源瓶颈及其解决途径.经济研究,(6):142-153.
毛健,潘鸿.2010.自然资源:合理开发与经济增长相关分析.经济学动态,(1):72-75.
秦成,王红旗,田雅楠,等.2011.资源环境承载力评价指标研究.中国人口·资源与环境,21(12):335-338.
孙钰,李新刚.2013.基于空间回归分析的城市土地综合承载力研究---以环渤海地区城市群为例.地域研究与开发,32(5):128-132.
王勇,俞海,张永亮,等.2017.城镇化研究对资源环境的需求和影响预测分析.城市发展研究,24(11):131-135.
王晓鹏,丁生喜.2015.三江源地区人口资源环境承载力动态评价研究---以青海省果洛州为例.31(11):149-152.
魏婷,朱晓东,李扬帆.2008.基于突变级数法的厦门城市生态系统健康评价.生态学报,28(12):6312-6320.
翁翎燕.2018.基于突变级数法的江苏省资源环境承载力评价及障碍因素诊断.水土保持研究,25(3):354-359.
徐琳瑜,康鹏,刘仁志.2013.基于突变理论的工业园区环境承载力动态评价方法.中国环境科学,33(6):1127-1136.
杨亮洁,杨永春.2017.甘肃省资源环境承载力时空分异.生态学报,37(20):7000-7017.
周悦,谢屹.2014.基于生态足迹模型的辽宁省水资源可持续利用分析.生态学杂志,33(11):3157-3163.
Brown MT,Ulgiati S.1997.Emergy-based indices and ratios to evaluate sustainability:Monitoring economies and technology toward environmentally sound innovation.Ecological Engineering,9:51-69.
Freckleton R,Wakinson A,Green R,et al.2006.Census error and the detection of density dependence.Journal of Animal Ecology,75:837-851.
陈海波,刘旸旸.2013.江苏省城市资源环境承载力的空间差异.城市问题,(3):33-37.
陈云峰,孙殿义,陆根法.2006.突变级数法在生态适宜度评价中的应用:以镇江新区为例.生态学报,26(8):2587-2593.
邓伟.2010.山区资源环境承载力研究现状与关键问题.地理研究,29(6):956-969.
何雄浪.2016.自然资源禀赋与区域发展:“资源福音”还是“资源诅咒”?西南民族大学学报:人文社科版,(2):120-125.
纪学朋,白永平,杜海波,等.2017.甘肃省生态承载力空间定量评价及耦合协调性.生态学报,37(17):5861-5670.
姜秋香,付强,王子龙.2011.基于粒子群优化投影寻踪模型的区域土地资源承载力综合评价.农业工程学报,27(11):319-324.
李彩惠,霍海鹰,李雅洁,等.2015.基于突变级数模型的城市低碳竞争力评价及障碍因子诊断分析.资源科学,37(7):1474-1481.
刘凯,任建兰,程钰,等.2016.中国城镇化的资源环境承载力响应演变与驱动因素.城市发展研究,23(1):27-33.
刘凯,任建兰,张理娟,等.2016.人地关系视角下的城镇化的资源环境承载力响应---以山东省为例.经济地理,36(9):11-84.
刘明,廖和平,李涛,等.2015.基于模糊物元的重庆市资源环境承载力动态评价研究.中国农学通报,31(20):113-118.
刘启君,黄曼,宋艺欣,等.2016.基于灰色关联TOPSIS模型的武汉市环境承载力评价及障碍因子诊断.生态经济,32(5):191-194.
罗浩.2007.自然资源与经济增长:资源瓶颈及其解决途径.经济研究,(6):142-153.
毛健,潘鸿.2010.自然资源:合理开发与经济增长相关分析.经济学动态,(1):72-75.
秦成,王红旗,田雅楠,等.2011.资源环境承载力评价指标研究.中国人口·资源与环境,21(12):335-338.
孙钰,李新刚.2013.基于空间回归分析的城市土地综合承载力研究---以环渤海地区城市群为例.地域研究与开发,32(5):128-132.
王勇,俞海,张永亮,等.2017.城镇化研究对资源环境的需求和影响预测分析.城市发展研究,24(11):131-135.
王晓鹏,丁生喜.2015.三江源地区人口资源环境承载力动态评价研究---以青海省果洛州为例.31(11):149-152.
魏婷,朱晓东,李扬帆.2008.基于突变级数法的厦门城市生态系统健康评价.生态学报,28(12):6312-6320.
翁翎燕.2018.基于突变级数法的江苏省资源环境承载力评价及障碍因素诊断.水土保持研究,25(3):354-359.
徐琳瑜,康鹏,刘仁志.2013.基于突变理论的工业园区环境承载力动态评价方法.中国环境科学,33(6):1127-1136.
杨亮洁,杨永春.2017.甘肃省资源环境承载力时空分异.生态学报,37(20):7000-7017.
周悦,谢屹.2014.基于生态足迹模型的辽宁省水资源可持续利用分析.生态学杂志,33(11):3157-3163.
Brown MT,Ulgiati S.1997.Emergy-based indices and ratios to evaluate sustainability:Monitoring economies and technology toward environmentally sound innovation.Ecological Engineering,9:51-69.
Freckleton R,Wakinson A,Green R,et al.2006.Census error and the detection of density dependence.Journal of Animal Ecology,75:837-851.