喀什市热量资源对气候变化的响应特征及对农业的影响
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摘要
利用喀什市气象局1971—2010年逐日气象资料,运用线性回归、P检验、Mann-Kendall突变检验等方法分析了喀什市热量资源对气候变化的响应特征及对农业的影响。结果表明:近40 a喀什市年平均气温呈极显著上升趋势,并于2000年发生了增暖性突变;无霜期明显延长,于1999年从一个相对偏短期跃变为一个相对偏长期;各界限温度积温和持续日数均呈增加趋势;0℃积温在2004年发生了由少到多的突变,20℃初、终日,持续日数,活动积温均在1999年发生了突变,其它各级农业界限温度出现日期、持续日数及活动积温未出现气候突变现象。喀什市热量资源整体增加趋势对农业生产有利。
Using the daily meteorological data covering 1971-2010 from Kashgar Meteorological Bureau,we studied the effects of heat resources of Kashgar City on climate change and agriculture by using linear regression,P-test,Mann-Kenda II mutation test,etc. The results showed that the average temperature of Kashgar City in recent 40 years significantly increased,and warming mutation occurred in 2000. Frost-free days are obviously extended,which changed from a relative shorter period to a longer period in 1999. Both of accumulated temperature and lasting days of each demarcation temperature increased. There was a mutation from less to more for the accumulated temperature of 0℃ in 2004. In addition,there were mutations for the first day,last day,lasting days and active accumulated temperature of 20℃ in 1999. However,no climate mutation occurred in the appearance date, lasting days and active accumulated temperature of agricultural demarcation temperatures. Hence,the increasing heat resources in Kashgar City are beneficial to agricultural production.
Using the daily meteorological data covering 1971-2010 from Kashgar Meteorological Bureau,we studied the effects of heat resources of Kashgar City on climate change and agriculture by using linear regression,P-test,Mann-Kenda II mutation test,etc. The results showed that the average temperature of Kashgar City in recent 40 years significantly increased,and warming mutation occurred in 2000. Frost-free days are obviously extended,which changed from a relative shorter period to a longer period in 1999. Both of accumulated temperature and lasting days of each demarcation temperature increased. There was a mutation from less to more for the accumulated temperature of 0℃ in 2004. In addition,there were mutations for the first day,last day,lasting days and active accumulated temperature of 20℃ in 1999. However,no climate mutation occurred in the appearance date, lasting days and active accumulated temperature of agricultural demarcation temperatures. Hence,the increasing heat resources in Kashgar City are beneficial to agricultural production.
引文
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[23]纪春艳,辛正宇,毕玉珍.等.临汾地区冬小麦生育期的气候生态分析[J].山西师范大学学报(自然科学版),2010,24(1):76-80.
[2]丁一汇,任国玉,石广玉,等.气候变化国家评估报告(1):中国气候变化的历史和未来趋势[J].气候变化研进展,2006,2(1):3-8.
[3]王红桃,包光,胡亚飞.甘肃1967—2008年气温和降水时空变化[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2017,11(2):34-42.
[4]薛燕,韩萍,冯国华.半个世纪以来新疆降水和气温的变化趋势[J].干旱区研究,2003,20(2):127-130.
[5]苏宏超,魏文寿,韩萍.新疆近50a来的气温和蒸发变化[J].冰川冻土,2003,25(2):174-177.
[6]刘进新,全学荣.南疆盆地1961—2005年气温变化特征[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2008,2(2):23-26.
[7]张家宝,陈洪武,毛炜峄,等.新疆气候变化与生态环境的初步评估[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2008,2(4):1-11.
[8]许崇海,徐影,罗勇.新疆地区21世纪气候变化分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2008,2(3):1-7.
[9]缪启龙,丁园圆,王勇.气候变暖对中国热量资源分布的影响分析[J].自然资源学报2009,24(5):934-944.
[10]张立波,吉宗续,郑选军,等.近50年华东地区热量资源变化特征分析[J].中国农业气象,2012,33(3):325-332.
[11]袁春琼,苏晓岚,姚艳丽.热量资源对新疆棉花的影响及对策[J].新疆气象2001,24(2):18-20.
[12]曹娟,杜峰,陈海莉.库尔勒垦区2000—2009年热量资源变化对棉花生产的影响[J].沙漠与绿洲气象2012,6(2):40-43.
[13]郑玉萍,张月华.秋冬气候变化对乌鲁木齐冬小麦播期的影响[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2008,2(2):43-45.
[14]邹陈.石河子棉区不同热量条件对棉花纤维品质影响研究[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2013,7(4):61-65.
[15]王胜兰,张山清,冯志敏等.乌鲁木齐地区热量资源时空变化分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2011,5(5):24-29.
[16]张家宝,史玉光.新疆气候变化及短期气候预测研究[M].北京:气象出版社,2002:103-105.
[17]符淙斌,王强.气候突变的定义和检测方法[J].大学科学,1992,16(6):482-493.
[18]冯浩,霍锦,杜新蕊.且末荒漠绿洲资源变化特征及资源潜力分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2013,7(1):65-68.
[19]谭方颖,王建林,宋迎波,等.华北平原近45年农业气候资源变化特征分析[J].中国农业气象,2009,30(1):19-24.
[20]贾建英,郭建平.东北地区近46年玉米气候资源变化研究[J].中国农业气象,2009,30(3):302-307.
[21]冯秀藻,陶炳炎.农业气象学原理[M].北京:气象出版社,1991中国农业气象,2009,30(3):302-307.
[22]马树庆,安刚,王琪,等.东北玉米带热量资源的变化规律研究[J].资源科学,2000,22(5):41-45.
[23]纪春艳,辛正宇,毕玉珍.等.临汾地区冬小麦生育期的气候生态分析[J].山西师范大学学报(自然科学版),2010,24(1):76-80.