中国粮食种植面积能对市场作出正确响应吗?——基于面板联立方程的实证
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摘要
构建反映粮食种植面积变化的动态模型,将2004—2016年31个省区按照粮食主产区和非主产区进行样本分组,运用面板联立方程分析价格、风险、成本和需求等市场因素对粮食种植面积的影响。研究表明,主产区粮食生产价格无法对粮食种植面积的变化作出响应,粮食种植面积也没有对价格波动作出正确响应,市场机制尚无法有效发挥对主产区粮食种植行为的调节作用。在受到外部冲击后,市场自发的调节会导致主产区粮食生产价格和粮食种植面积偏离均衡状态。非主产区粮食市场机制更加完善,在受到外部冲击后,市场自发的调节可以使粮食生产价格和粮食种植面积恢复到均衡状态。最后提出应从完善主产区市场机制和保障粮农收益两方面推进粮食供给侧改革。
This paper constructed a conceptual model reflecting the change of grain planting area.Then,data from 2004 to 2016 of 31 provinces and regions were chosen and grouped according to whether the data were collected from the main grain-producing areas or not.The panel simultaneous equation technique was used to compare and analyze the impact of market factors such as price,risk,cost and demand on grain planting area.Finally,the effect of various variables on grain planting area was simulated.The research shows that the grain production price in the main producing areas can not respond to the change of grain planting area,and the grain planting area does not respond correctly to price fluctuations.Meanwhile,the market mechanism cannot play effectively its role in regulating the grain growing behavior of the main producing areas.The spontaneous adjustment of the market will cause the grain production price and supply in the main producing areas to deviate from equilibrium after external shocks.The relationship between grain planting area,production price and price fluctuation in non-main producing areas is closer,and the market mechanism is improved. The market's spontaneous adjustment can return the grain production price and supply to equilibrium after external shocks.Finally,suggestions were put forward to improve the market mechanism and ensure the comparative benefits of grain farmers.
This paper constructed a conceptual model reflecting the change of grain planting area.Then,data from 2004 to 2016 of 31 provinces and regions were chosen and grouped according to whether the data were collected from the main grain-producing areas or not.The panel simultaneous equation technique was used to compare and analyze the impact of market factors such as price,risk,cost and demand on grain planting area.Finally,the effect of various variables on grain planting area was simulated.The research shows that the grain production price in the main producing areas can not respond to the change of grain planting area,and the grain planting area does not respond correctly to price fluctuations.Meanwhile,the market mechanism cannot play effectively its role in regulating the grain growing behavior of the main producing areas.The spontaneous adjustment of the market will cause the grain production price and supply in the main producing areas to deviate from equilibrium after external shocks.The relationship between grain planting area,production price and price fluctuation in non-main producing areas is closer,and the market mechanism is improved. The market's spontaneous adjustment can return the grain production price and supply to equilibrium after external shocks.Finally,suggestions were put forward to improve the market mechanism and ensure the comparative benefits of grain farmers.
引文
[1]仇童伟,罗必良.种植结构“趋粮化”的动因何在?——基于农地产权与要素配置的作用机理及实证研究[J].中国农村经济,2018(2):65-80.
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[8]DONG H S,MOSS C B.Decomposition of corn price effects:Implications for feed grain demand and livestock supply[J].Agricultural Economics,2017,48(4):491-500.
[9]钞贺森,田旭,于晓华.肉类消费结构、饲料安全和粮食安全——农业“供给侧改革”的一个参照系[J].农业现代化研究,2017,38(5):737-745.
[10]赵玉,严武.市场风险、价格预期与农户种植行为响应——基于粮食主产区的实证[J].农业现代化研究,2016,37(1):50-56.
[11]郭健,李谷成,李欠男.劳动力成本上升对中国主要农作物种植结构的影响——基于1998—2014年的省级面板数据[J].湖南农业大学学报(社会科学版),2017,18(4):44-50.
[12]JIANG YONG.China’s water security:Current status,emerging challenges and future prospects[J].Environmental Science&Policy,2015(54):106-125.
[13]SUN S,WANG Y,ENGEL B A,et al.Effects of virtual water flow on regional water resources stress:A case study of grain in China[J].Science of the Total Environment,2016(550):871-879.
[14]李玉敏,王金霞.农村水资源短缺:现状、趋势及其对作物种植结构的影响——基于全国10个省调查数据的实证分析[J].自然资源学报,2009,24(2):200-208.
[15]解桂英,赵绍熙,陈刚,等.水资源约束下滇中经济区农业种植结构调整研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2014,33(6):25-31.
[16]徐明凡,孟雪,刘合光.我国城镇化发展对农作物种植结构的影响[J].兰州学刊,2013(2):141-146.
[17]冷智花,付畅俭.城镇化失衡发展对粮食安全的影响[J].经济学家,2014(11):58-65.
[18]涂涛涛,马强,李谷成.人口老龄化、人口城镇化与中国粮食安全——基于中国CGE模型的模拟[J].中南财经政法大学学报,2017(4):109-118.
[19]蔡璐佳,安萍莉,汪芳甜,等.内蒙古农牧交错带普通农户与种植大户耕地集约度及影响因素研究——以乌兰察布市为例[J].中国农业大学学报,2017,22(1):172-180.
[20]MORILLO J G,MCNABOLA A,CAMACHO E,et al.Hydro-power energy recovery in pressurized irrigation networks:A case study of an Irrigation District in the South of Spain[J].Agricultural Water Management,2018(204):17-27.
[21]吴连翠,蔡红辉.粮食补贴政策对农户种植行为影响的实证分析[J].技术经济,2010,29(6):68-73.
[22]杨万江,孙奕航.粮食补贴政策对稻农种植积极性影响的实证分析——基于浙江、安徽、江西稻农调查数据分析[J].中国农学通报,2013,29(20):114-118.
[23]樊琦,祁华清,李霜.粮食目标价格制度改革研究——以东北三省一区大豆试点为例[J].宏观经济研究,2016(09):20-30.
[24]JUODIS A.First difference transformation in panel VAR models[J].Econometric Reviews,2018,37(6):650-693.
[25]HSIAO C,ZHOU Q.Statistical inference for panel dynamic simultaneous equations models[J].Journal of Econometrics,2015,189(2):383-396.
[2]王勇,陈印军,易小燕,等.耕地流转中的“非粮化”问题与对策建议[J].中国农业资源与区划,2011,32(4):13-16.
[3]薛选登,张一方.产粮大县耕地“非粮化”现象及其防控[J].中州学刊,2017(8):40-45.
[4]宋戈,白小艳,高佳.粮食产销平衡区耕地非粮化负外部效益空间分布特征[J].水土保持研究,2018,25(1):349-355.
[5]钱龙,袁航,刘景景,等.非农就业、农地流转与粮食种植结构调整——基于固定观察点农户层面的微观实证[J].农业现代化研究,2018,39(5):789-797.
[6]罗必良,仇童伟.中国农业种植结构调整:“非粮化”抑或“趋粮化”[J].社会科学战线,2018(2):39-51+2.
[7]钟甫宁,陆五一,徐志刚.农村劳动力外出务工不利于粮食生产吗?——对农户要素替代与种植结构调整行为及约束条件的解析[J].中国农村经济,2016(7):36-47.
[8]DONG H S,MOSS C B.Decomposition of corn price effects:Implications for feed grain demand and livestock supply[J].Agricultural Economics,2017,48(4):491-500.
[9]钞贺森,田旭,于晓华.肉类消费结构、饲料安全和粮食安全——农业“供给侧改革”的一个参照系[J].农业现代化研究,2017,38(5):737-745.
[10]赵玉,严武.市场风险、价格预期与农户种植行为响应——基于粮食主产区的实证[J].农业现代化研究,2016,37(1):50-56.
[11]郭健,李谷成,李欠男.劳动力成本上升对中国主要农作物种植结构的影响——基于1998—2014年的省级面板数据[J].湖南农业大学学报(社会科学版),2017,18(4):44-50.
[12]JIANG YONG.China’s water security:Current status,emerging challenges and future prospects[J].Environmental Science&Policy,2015(54):106-125.
[13]SUN S,WANG Y,ENGEL B A,et al.Effects of virtual water flow on regional water resources stress:A case study of grain in China[J].Science of the Total Environment,2016(550):871-879.
[14]李玉敏,王金霞.农村水资源短缺:现状、趋势及其对作物种植结构的影响——基于全国10个省调查数据的实证分析[J].自然资源学报,2009,24(2):200-208.
[15]解桂英,赵绍熙,陈刚,等.水资源约束下滇中经济区农业种植结构调整研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2014,33(6):25-31.
[16]徐明凡,孟雪,刘合光.我国城镇化发展对农作物种植结构的影响[J].兰州学刊,2013(2):141-146.
[17]冷智花,付畅俭.城镇化失衡发展对粮食安全的影响[J].经济学家,2014(11):58-65.
[18]涂涛涛,马强,李谷成.人口老龄化、人口城镇化与中国粮食安全——基于中国CGE模型的模拟[J].中南财经政法大学学报,2017(4):109-118.
[19]蔡璐佳,安萍莉,汪芳甜,等.内蒙古农牧交错带普通农户与种植大户耕地集约度及影响因素研究——以乌兰察布市为例[J].中国农业大学学报,2017,22(1):172-180.
[20]MORILLO J G,MCNABOLA A,CAMACHO E,et al.Hydro-power energy recovery in pressurized irrigation networks:A case study of an Irrigation District in the South of Spain[J].Agricultural Water Management,2018(204):17-27.
[21]吴连翠,蔡红辉.粮食补贴政策对农户种植行为影响的实证分析[J].技术经济,2010,29(6):68-73.
[22]杨万江,孙奕航.粮食补贴政策对稻农种植积极性影响的实证分析——基于浙江、安徽、江西稻农调查数据分析[J].中国农学通报,2013,29(20):114-118.
[23]樊琦,祁华清,李霜.粮食目标价格制度改革研究——以东北三省一区大豆试点为例[J].宏观经济研究,2016(09):20-30.
[24]JUODIS A.First difference transformation in panel VAR models[J].Econometric Reviews,2018,37(6):650-693.
[25]HSIAO C,ZHOU Q.Statistical inference for panel dynamic simultaneous equations models[J].Journal of Econometrics,2015,189(2):383-396.