种植业碳源、碳汇测算与净碳汇影响因素动态分析:山东例证
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摘要
本文选取山东省1990～2016年的种植业数据,测算了山东省种植业碳源、碳汇、单位面积碳汇量、净碳汇量。基于VECM动态模型,分析了影响净碳汇的因素。结果表明:种植业经济发展水平、农产品出口依存度与有效灌溉面积率,对净碳汇存在长期均衡正向影响;财政支持力度对净碳汇存在短期的正向影响。研究表明,发展经济、优化对外贸易、提升科学灌溉技术水平与提高财政资金使用有效性等手段可以有效促进种植业减排增汇。
Based on the planting data of Shandong Province from 1990 to 2016, the carbon source,carbon sink, carbon sink per unit area and net carbon sink of planting industry in Shandong Province were calculated. Based on VECM dynamic model, the factors affecting net carbon sequestration are analyzed.The results showed that the economic development level of planting industry, the dependence degree of agricultural exports and the effective irrigation area ratio had a long-term positive impact on net carbon sink and a short-term positive impact on financial support. The results show that the development of economy, optimization of foreign trade, upgrading of scientific irrigation technology and improving the effectiveness of the use of financial funds can effectively promote the reduction of emissions and increase foreign exchange of planting industry in Shandong Province.
Based on the planting data of Shandong Province from 1990 to 2016, the carbon source,carbon sink, carbon sink per unit area and net carbon sink of planting industry in Shandong Province were calculated. Based on VECM dynamic model, the factors affecting net carbon sequestration are analyzed.The results showed that the economic development level of planting industry, the dependence degree of agricultural exports and the effective irrigation area ratio had a long-term positive impact on net carbon sink and a short-term positive impact on financial support. The results show that the development of economy, optimization of foreign trade, upgrading of scientific irrigation technology and improving the effectiveness of the use of financial funds can effectively promote the reduction of emissions and increase foreign exchange of planting industry in Shandong Province.
引文
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[9]IPCC.2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories:Volume 2(Energy)[EB/OL].Japan:the Institute for Global Environmental Strategies,2008[2008-07-02].http://www.ipccnggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/vol2.html.
[10]谢鸿宇,陈贤生,林凯荣,等.基于碳循环的化石能源及电力生态足迹[J].生态学报,2008(4):1729-1735.
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[12]张文明,张孝德.生态资源资本化:一个框架性阐述[J].改革,2019(1):122-131.
[2]马涛.上海农业碳源碳汇现状评估及增加碳汇潜力分析[J].农业环境与发展,2011(5):38-41.
[3]王梁,赵杰,陈守越.山东省农田生态系统碳源、碳汇及其碳足迹变化分析[J].中国农业大学学报,2016(7):133-141.
[4]RICHMOND A K,KAUFMANN R K.Is there a turning point in the relationship between income and energy use and/or carbon emissions[J].Ecological Economics,2006,56:176-189.
[5]DALTON M,et al.Popula]ion aging and future carbon emissions in the United States[J].Energy Economics,2008(30):642-675.
[6]ZAIM O,TASKIN F.Environmental efficiency in carbon dioxide emissions in the OECD:A non-parametric approach[J].Journal of Environmental Management,2000,58(2).
[7]田云,张俊飚.中国农业生产净碳效应分异研究[J].自然资源学报,2013(8):1298-1309.
[8]杨果,陈瑶.中国农业源碳汇估算及其与农业经济发展的耦合分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016(12):171-176.
[9]IPCC.2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories:Volume 2(Energy)[EB/OL].Japan:the Institute for Global Environmental Strategies,2008[2008-07-02].http://www.ipccnggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/vol2.html.
[10]谢鸿宇,陈贤生,林凯荣,等.基于碳循环的化石能源及电力生态足迹[J].生态学报,2008(4):1729-1735.
[11]李克让.土地利用变化和温室气体净排放与陆地生态系统碳循环[M].北京:气象出版社,2002:260-265.
[12]张文明,张孝德.生态资源资本化:一个框架性阐述[J].改革,2019(1):122-131.