西部地区中心城市碳排放与经济发展关系研究——以西安市为例
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摘要
以西安市为研究对象,通过拟合人均碳排放与人均GDP的线性关系以检验其是否符合环境库兹涅茨曲线。选取1997—2016年规模以上工业企业9种能源消费量计算得到的人均碳排放数据,并绘制时间序列曲线。时间序列曲线具有波动式上升的特征,但近年来处于明显的下降阶段;通过拟合人均碳排放与人均GDP之间的关系,发现二者之间呈现倒"U"型曲线关系,西安市人均碳排放与人均GDP之间的关系符合库兹涅茨曲线,并且碳排放随着经济的发展已经超过峰值,说明随着人均GDP增长环境污染已有所改善。结合同期GDP总量、城镇化水平、产业结构及其变化以及技术进步系数进行了灰色关联分析,表明人均碳排放与这些指标均存在相当的关联度。
Taking the city of Xi'an as the research object, the existence of Environmental Kuznets Curve is verified by fitting the linear relationship between per capita carbon emission and per capita GDP. The per capita carbon emission data obtained from 9 kinds of energy consumption in Industrial Enterprises above scale from 1997 to 2016 were selected and the time series curves were drawn. Time series curve had the characteristics of increasing, but in recent years in the decline stage. By fitting the relationship between per capita carbon emission and per capita GDP, it was found that there was an inverted "U" curve relationship between the two, and there existed Environmental Kuznets Curve between per capita GDP carbon emissions and per capita in Xi'an, and the carbon emissions exceeded the peak of the economy, which all showed that with the per capita GDP growth, the environmental pollution improved. Combined with the total GDP in the same period, the urbanization level, the industrial structure and its change as well as the technological progress the Grey Correlation were analyzed, which showed that there was a significant correlation between per capita carbon emissions and these indicators.
Taking the city of Xi'an as the research object, the existence of Environmental Kuznets Curve is verified by fitting the linear relationship between per capita carbon emission and per capita GDP. The per capita carbon emission data obtained from 9 kinds of energy consumption in Industrial Enterprises above scale from 1997 to 2016 were selected and the time series curves were drawn. Time series curve had the characteristics of increasing, but in recent years in the decline stage. By fitting the relationship between per capita carbon emission and per capita GDP, it was found that there was an inverted "U" curve relationship between the two, and there existed Environmental Kuznets Curve between per capita GDP carbon emissions and per capita in Xi'an, and the carbon emissions exceeded the peak of the economy, which all showed that with the per capita GDP growth, the environmental pollution improved. Combined with the total GDP in the same period, the urbanization level, the industrial structure and its change as well as the technological progress the Grey Correlation were analyzed, which showed that there was a significant correlation between per capita carbon emissions and these indicators.
引文
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[20]韩晔,周忠学.西安市绿地景观吸收雾霾生态系统服务测算及空间格局[J].地理研究, 2015, 34(7):1247–1258.
[21]韩浩,解建仓,姜仁贵,等.西安市雾霾时空分布特征研究[J].环境污染与防治, 2016, 38(5):73-76.
[22]曾贤刚.二氧化碳减排的经济学分析[M].北京:中国环境科学出版社, 2011.
[23]潘习平,沙景华,张宏亮.铜陵市经济增长与环境污染关系研究——基于环境库兹涅茨曲线假说[J].资源与产业, 2014, 16(1):121–126.
[24]樊杰.中国人文与经济地理学者的学术探究和社会贡献[M].北京:商务印书馆, 2016.
[25]李健,周慧.中国碳排放强度与产业结构的关联分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境, 2012, 22(1):7–14.
[26]李炎丽,梁浩,梁保松.河南省碳排放因素分解及关联分析[J].河南农业大学学报, 2011, 45(5):605–610.
[2] SHAFIK N, BANDYOPADHYAY S. Economic growth and environmental quality:time series and cross-country evidence[C]. Washington:World Bank Working Paper WPS904, 1992.
[3] LUCAS R E B, WHEELER D, HETTIGE H. Economic development, environmental regulation and the international migration of toxic industrial pollution:1960-1988[J]. Policy Research Working Paper, 1992,2007(04):13–18.
[4] SELDEN T M, SONG D. Environmental quality and development:is there a Kuznets curve for air pollution emission?[J]. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 1994, 27(2):147–162.
[5] XEPAPADEAS A, AMRI E. Environmental quality and economic development:empirical evidence based on qualitative characteristics. Papers of the 6th Annual Conference of the European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, 1995[C]. Sweden.
[6] SHUNJI M, REISHI M IKUHO K. Economic growth and environment quality in developing countries:a verification of Environmental Kuznets Curve[D]. Higashihiroshima:Hiroshima University, 2002.
[7]段晓峰,许学工.山东省污染物排放与经济发展水平的关系[J].地理科学进展, 2010, 29(3):342–346.
[8]王西琴,何芬,张兵.丽江市经济发展与环境污染水平的关系[J].地理研究, 2010, 29(5):927–934.
[9]庄大昌,叶浩,张慧霞.广州市经济发展与水环境污染的关系研究[J].经济地理, 2013, 33(12):38–41.
[10]陈强强,窦学诚.甘肃省环境库兹涅茨曲线估计及其驱动因子分析[J].干旱区地理, 2011, 34(5):866–873.
[11]吴玉萍,董锁成,宋键峰.北京市经济增长与环境污染水平计量模型研究[J].地理研究, 2002, 21(2):239–246.
[12]许广月,宋德勇.中国碳排放环境库兹涅茨曲线的实证研究——基于省域面板数据[J].中国工业经济, 2010(5):37–47.
[13]李国志,李宗植.二氧化碳排放与经济增长关系的EKC检验——对我国东、中、西部地区的一项比较[J].产经评论, 2011(6):139–151.
[14]邵锋祥,屈小娥,席瑶.陕西省碳排放环境库兹涅茨曲线及影响因素——基于1978—2008年的实证分析[J].干旱区资源与环境, 2012, 26(8):37–43.
[15]王莉雯,卫亚星.沈阳市经济发展演变与碳排放效应研究[J].自然资源学报, 2014, 29(1):27–38.
[16]吴振信,万埠磊.基于环境库兹涅茨曲线的北京市碳排放与经济增长相关性研究[J].经济研究导刊, 2012(14):61–64.
[17]薛东前,闫萍.西安市经济发展与环境关系的关联分析[J].干旱区资源与环境, 2006, 20(6):19–25.
[18]李红艳,李晶,张东海,等.西安市环境库兹涅茨曲线分析[J].干旱区研究, 2013, 30(3):556–562.
[19]王长燕,赵景波.西安市工业废气排放的环境库兹涅茨曲线变异及原因分析[J].陕西师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2007, 35(3):100–103.
[20]韩晔,周忠学.西安市绿地景观吸收雾霾生态系统服务测算及空间格局[J].地理研究, 2015, 34(7):1247–1258.
[21]韩浩,解建仓,姜仁贵,等.西安市雾霾时空分布特征研究[J].环境污染与防治, 2016, 38(5):73-76.
[22]曾贤刚.二氧化碳减排的经济学分析[M].北京:中国环境科学出版社, 2011.
[23]潘习平,沙景华,张宏亮.铜陵市经济增长与环境污染关系研究——基于环境库兹涅茨曲线假说[J].资源与产业, 2014, 16(1):121–126.
[24]樊杰.中国人文与经济地理学者的学术探究和社会贡献[M].北京:商务印书馆, 2016.
[25]李健,周慧.中国碳排放强度与产业结构的关联分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境, 2012, 22(1):7–14.
[26]李炎丽,梁浩,梁保松.河南省碳排放因素分解及关联分析[J].河南农业大学学报, 2011, 45(5):605–610.