中国省域旅游资源竞争力评价及其格局演变
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摘要
文章采用熵权TOPSIS方法、马尔可夫转移概率矩阵、灰色预测模型以及泰尔指数测度与分解方法,对中国省域旅游资源竞争力水平进行评价并探索其空间格局演变态势以及空间分异情况。结果显示:①2011—2016年,各省市区间的旅游资源竞争力水平差距在波动中有所上升,省域旅游资源竞争力水平发展不平衡、不协调的问题较为突出;②各省域旅游资源竞争力等级,在不同阶段呈现出截然相反的演化规律,随时间推移,中等级省域出现较高的等级下降风险,高等级省域与低等级省域的等级变化可能性较小;③2011—2016年以来,中国各区域内部的差异在多数年份中成为影响中国旅游资源竞争力水平省际差异的主要方面,而各区域间差异则是影响差异的次要方面。
Applying the TOPSIS method combining with the entropy weight, Markov transition probability matrix, gray prediction model and Theil index, this article evaluates the competitiveness level of provincial tourism resources in China and explores its evolutionary characteristics and spatial differentiation. The results show that: 1) From 2011 to 2016, the difference in tourism resources competitiveness among provinces presents fluctuating increase tendency, and the problem of unbalanced and uncoordinated development is increasingly prominent. 2) The provinces with different competitiveness grades of tourism resources show opposite evolutionary patterns at different stages. Over time, the middle-grade provinces have higher risk of grade decline, while the high-grade and low-grade regions have less possibility of grade change. 3) From 2011 to 2016, the differences within the eastern, central, western and northeastern regions of China have become the main aspects affecting the inter-provincial differences in the competitiveness of China's tourism resources in most years and explain the overall differences to a large extent. Furthermore, the inter-regional differences are secondary aspects of the differences.
Applying the TOPSIS method combining with the entropy weight, Markov transition probability matrix, gray prediction model and Theil index, this article evaluates the competitiveness level of provincial tourism resources in China and explores its evolutionary characteristics and spatial differentiation. The results show that: 1) From 2011 to 2016, the difference in tourism resources competitiveness among provinces presents fluctuating increase tendency, and the problem of unbalanced and uncoordinated development is increasingly prominent. 2) The provinces with different competitiveness grades of tourism resources show opposite evolutionary patterns at different stages. Over time, the middle-grade provinces have higher risk of grade decline, while the high-grade and low-grade regions have less possibility of grade change. 3) From 2011 to 2016, the differences within the eastern, central, western and northeastern regions of China have become the main aspects affecting the inter-provincial differences in the competitiveness of China's tourism resources in most years and explain the overall differences to a large extent. Furthermore, the inter-regional differences are secondary aspects of the differences.
引文
[1]张广海,王佳.我国旅游资源竞争力综合评价及其开发类型研究[J].中国海洋大学学报:社会科学版,2013(2):43-50.
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[8]郭来喜,吴必虎,刘锋,等.中国旅游资源分类系统与类型评价[J].地理学报,2000(3):294-301.
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[13]董锁成,李雪,张广海,等.城市群旅游竞争力评价指标体系与测度方法探讨[J].旅游学刊,2009,24(2):30-36.
[14]张河清,田晓辉,王蕾蕾.区域旅游业竞合发展实证研究——基于珠三角与长三角城市旅游竞争力的比较分析[J].经济地理,2010,30(5):871-875.
[15]程乾,郭静静.基于类型的古村落旅游竞争力分析[J].经济地理,2011,31(7):1 226-1 232.
[16]李红勇,卢杰.江西文化旅游资源竞争力评价[J].企业经济,2014(4):143-146.
[17]李松柏.环太湖城市旅游竞争力与区域旅游合作研究[J].经济地理,2014,34(2):180-186.
[18]吴丽云.大北京都市区城市旅游竞争力的评价[J].北京联合大学学报,2014,28(4):66-70.
[19]逯燕玲,何丹,齐震宇.北京市旅游区域竞争力评价与空间优化研究[J].北京联合大学学报,2017,31(3):31-40.
[20]温碧燕,梁明珠.基于因素分析的区域旅游竞争力评价模型研究[J].旅游学刊,2007(2):18-22.
[21]温碧燕.区域旅游业可持续竞争力的结构方程模型及实证[J].地域研究与开发,2010,29(3):77-81.
[22]周礼,蒋金亮.长三角城市旅游竞争力综合评价及其空间分异[J].经济地理,2015,35(1):173-179.
[23] Wang Y,Wei F,Sun C,Li Q. The research of improved grey GM(1,1)model to predict the postprandial glucose in type 2diabetes[J]. Biomed Research International,2016,doi:10.1155/2016/6837052.
[24] Mahmod W E,Watanabe,K. Modified Grey Model and its application to groundwater flow analysis with limited hydrogeological data:a case study of the Nubian Sandstone,Kharga Oasis,Egypt[J]. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment,2014,186(2):1 063-1 081.
[2] Loeb P D. International travel to the USA economic evaluation[J]. Annals of Tourism Research,1982,9(1):7-20.
[3] Enright M J,Newton J. Tourism destination competitiveness:A quantitative approach[J]. Tourism Management,2004,25(6):777-788.
[4] Algieri B,Aquino A,Succurro M. International competitive advantages in tourism:An eclectic view[J]. Tourism Management Perspectives,2018,25:41-52.
[5] Go F M,Govers R. Integrated quality management for tourist destinations:A European perspective on achieving competitiveness[J]. Tourism Management,2000,21(1):79-88.
[6] Gomezelj D O,Mihali?T. Destination competitiveness-Applying different models,the case of Slovenia[J]. Tourism Management,2008,29(2):294-307.
[7] Ritchie R J B,Ritchie J R B. A framework for an industry supported destination marketing information system[J]. Tourism Management,2002,23(5):439-454.
[8]郭来喜,吴必虎,刘锋,等.中国旅游资源分类系统与类型评价[J].地理学报,2000(3):294-301.
[9]黄秀娟.旅游资源影响国际旅游竞争力的经济分析[J].资源科学,2008,30(11):1 768-1 775.
[10]伍延基.文明旅游与旅游文明:提升国际旅游竞争力的软实力[J].旅游学刊,2009,24(9):7-8.
[11]刘名俭,邹丽君.基于TTCI的中国旅游产业国际竞争力评价[J].经济地理,2011,31(3):518-522.
[12]刘宇峰,孙虎,李娜,等.省域旅游竞争力评价指标体系的构建及应用[J].干旱区资源与环境,2008(8):93-97.
[13]董锁成,李雪,张广海,等.城市群旅游竞争力评价指标体系与测度方法探讨[J].旅游学刊,2009,24(2):30-36.
[14]张河清,田晓辉,王蕾蕾.区域旅游业竞合发展实证研究——基于珠三角与长三角城市旅游竞争力的比较分析[J].经济地理,2010,30(5):871-875.
[15]程乾,郭静静.基于类型的古村落旅游竞争力分析[J].经济地理,2011,31(7):1 226-1 232.
[16]李红勇,卢杰.江西文化旅游资源竞争力评价[J].企业经济,2014(4):143-146.
[17]李松柏.环太湖城市旅游竞争力与区域旅游合作研究[J].经济地理,2014,34(2):180-186.
[18]吴丽云.大北京都市区城市旅游竞争力的评价[J].北京联合大学学报,2014,28(4):66-70.
[19]逯燕玲,何丹,齐震宇.北京市旅游区域竞争力评价与空间优化研究[J].北京联合大学学报,2017,31(3):31-40.
[20]温碧燕,梁明珠.基于因素分析的区域旅游竞争力评价模型研究[J].旅游学刊,2007(2):18-22.
[21]温碧燕.区域旅游业可持续竞争力的结构方程模型及实证[J].地域研究与开发,2010,29(3):77-81.
[22]周礼,蒋金亮.长三角城市旅游竞争力综合评价及其空间分异[J].经济地理,2015,35(1):173-179.
[23] Wang Y,Wei F,Sun C,Li Q. The research of improved grey GM(1,1)model to predict the postprandial glucose in type 2diabetes[J]. Biomed Research International,2016,doi:10.1155/2016/6837052.
[24] Mahmod W E,Watanabe,K. Modified Grey Model and its application to groundwater flow analysis with limited hydrogeological data:a case study of the Nubian Sandstone,Kharga Oasis,Egypt[J]. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment,2014,186(2):1 063-1 081.