中国典型区域地震灾害生命易损性模型适用性评价
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摘要
以地震灾害生命损失为研究对象,系统收集整理了国内51例地震的人员死亡数据,并对5类具有代表性的地震灾害生命易损性模型进行适用性评价.研究结果表明:1)对于M <5.5级地震,5类模型的多数评估结果基本都在合理范围内;5.5≤M <6.0级地震,5类评估模型结果误差较小且在合理范围内的模型为基于震中烈度和适用特定区域的模型;6.0≤M <7.0级地震,5类模型的多数评估结果不在一个数量级;M≥7.0级地震一般需采用特定适用范围的评估模型和专家经验参与,才可能会得到相对准确的评估结果,但仍然存在较大的误差.2)地震灾害生命易损性模型不适用于城市直下型地震生命损失评估,对于此类地震5种模型的评估结果都出现了较大偏差.3)在空间上地震灾害生命易损性模型存在分区现象,评估结果具有明显的区域性.
Life loss in earthquake disasters was studied in this work,with life loss data in 51 typical earthquake disasters in China collected.Five representative life vulnerability models of earthquake disasters were selected by earthquake parameter based empirical model the applicability was assessed in typical regions of China.The majority of the assessment results for the five representative models were found to be reasonable with earthquake magnitude lower than 5.5.With earthquake magnitude from 5.5-<6.0,all five models were presented with small errors.Within a reasonable range are models based on epicenter intensity and specific regions.With earthquake magnitude≥7.0,the assessment model with specific applicable scopes and expert experience were generally required to obtain relatively accurate assessment results,which,however,contained large errors.The life vulnerability models in earthquake disasters were found not applicable to assessment of life loss in earthquakes occurring directly beneath the city.Large deviations were found in the assessment results of these five models in such earthquakes.The life vulnerability models in earthquake disasters could be divided spatially in typical regions of China,and the assessment results were obviously regionally differentiated.
Life loss in earthquake disasters was studied in this work,with life loss data in 51 typical earthquake disasters in China collected.Five representative life vulnerability models of earthquake disasters were selected by earthquake parameter based empirical model the applicability was assessed in typical regions of China.The majority of the assessment results for the five representative models were found to be reasonable with earthquake magnitude lower than 5.5.With earthquake magnitude from 5.5-<6.0,all five models were presented with small errors.Within a reasonable range are models based on epicenter intensity and specific regions.With earthquake magnitude≥7.0,the assessment model with specific applicable scopes and expert experience were generally required to obtain relatively accurate assessment results,which,however,contained large errors.The life vulnerability models in earthquake disasters were found not applicable to assessment of life loss in earthquakes occurring directly beneath the city.Large deviations were found in the assessment results of these five models in such earthquakes.The life vulnerability models in earthquake disasters could be divided spatially in typical regions of China,and the assessment results were obviously regionally differentiated.
引文
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[17]王晓青,丁香.基于GIS的地震现场灾害损失评估系统[J].自然灾害学报,2004,13(1):118
[18]田鑫,朱冉冉.基于主成分分析及BP神经网络分析的地震人员伤亡预测模型研究[J].地震工程学报,2012,34(4):365
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[23]中国地震局震灾应急救援司.2006-2010年中国大陆地震灾害损失评估汇编[M].北京:地震出版社,2015
[24]刘金龙,林均岐.基于震中烈度的地震人员伤亡评估方法研究[J].自然灾害学报,2012,21(5):113
[25]地震灾情应急评估:GB/T30352-2013[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2014
[26]施伟华,陈坤华,谢英情,等.云南地震灾害人员伤亡预测方法研究[J].地震研究,2012,35(3):387
[27]齐文华,苏桂武,魏本勇,等.2010年青海玉树MS7.1地震灾害的综合特征[J].地震地质,2011,33(3):533
[28]单修政.城市直下型地震初探[J].国际地震动态,1989,10:12
[29]刘桂萍,李纲,张小涛,等.云南省地震生命损失的区域特征研究[J].震灾防御技术,2015,10(1):25
[2]WU S H,JIN J,ZHENG J Y.Estimation of the ratio of injured people to fatalities in earthquakes in China[J].Progress in Geography,2015,34(7):918
[3]李媛媛,苏国峰,翁文国,等.地震人员伤亡评估方法研究[J].灾害学,2014,29(2):223
[4]尹之潜.地震灾害损失预测研究[J].地震工程与工程振动,1991,11(4):87
[5]何玉林,范灵春,黎大虎,等.四川省地震灾害预测与评估系统设计及实现功能[J].华北地震科学,2005,23(2):32
[6]KIRCHER C A,WHITMAN R V,HOLMES W T.HAZUS earthquake loss estimation methods[J].Natural Hazards Review,2006,7(2):45
[7]Earthquake Loss Estimation Methodology:HAZUS99[S].Washington.DC,United States:Federal Emergency Management Agency,1999
[8]KAWASUMI H.Measures of earthquake danger and expectancy of maximum intensity through Japan as inferred from the seismic activity in historical times[J].Bull Earthquake Res Inst,1951,29(31):469
[9]OHTA Y,GOTO N,OHASHI H.An empirical construction of equations for estimating number of victims at an earthquake[J].Zisin,1993,36(3):463
[10]丁伯阳.介绍两种震害损失估算方法[J].灾害学,1991,6(2):45
[11]邹其嘉,毛国敏,孙振凯,等.地震人员伤亡易损性研究[J].自然灾害学报,1995,4(3):60
[12]SAMARDJIEVA E.Estimation of the expected number of casualties caused by strong earthquakes[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,2002,92(6):2310
[13]BADAL J,VAZQUEZ-PRADA M,ALVAROGONZALEZ.Preliminary quantitative assessment of earthquake casualties and damages[J].Natural Hazards,2005,34(3):353
[14]CHEN Q F,HONGLIANG M I,HUANG J.Asimplified approach to earthquake risk in mainland China[J].Pure&Applied Geophysics,2005,162(6/7):1255
[15]陈,刘杰,陈棋福,等.地震危险性分析和震害预测[M].北京:地震出版社,1999
[16]刘吉夫,陈,史培军,等.中国大陆地震风险分析模型研究(Ⅱ):生命易损性模型[J].北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2009,45(4):404
[17]王晓青,丁香.基于GIS的地震现场灾害损失评估系统[J].自然灾害学报,2004,13(1):118
[18]田鑫,朱冉冉.基于主成分分析及BP神经网络分析的地震人员伤亡预测模型研究[J].地震工程学报,2012,34(4):365
[19]赵振东,林均歧,钟江荣,等.地震人员伤亡指数与人员伤亡状态函数[J].自然灾害学报,1998,7(3):90
[20]中国地震局,中国统计局.中国大陆地震灾害损失评估汇编(1990-1995年)[M].北京:地震出版社,1996
[21]中国地震局震灾应急救援司.中国大陆地震灾害损失评估汇编(1996-2000年)[M].北京:地震出版社,2000
[22]中国地震局震灾应急救援司.中国大陆地震灾害损失评估汇编(2001-2005年)[M].北京:地震出版社,2010
[23]中国地震局震灾应急救援司.2006-2010年中国大陆地震灾害损失评估汇编[M].北京:地震出版社,2015
[24]刘金龙,林均岐.基于震中烈度的地震人员伤亡评估方法研究[J].自然灾害学报,2012,21(5):113
[25]地震灾情应急评估:GB/T30352-2013[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2014
[26]施伟华,陈坤华,谢英情,等.云南地震灾害人员伤亡预测方法研究[J].地震研究,2012,35(3):387
[27]齐文华,苏桂武,魏本勇,等.2010年青海玉树MS7.1地震灾害的综合特征[J].地震地质,2011,33(3):533
[28]单修政.城市直下型地震初探[J].国际地震动态,1989,10:12
[29]刘桂萍,李纲,张小涛,等.云南省地震生命损失的区域特征研究[J].震灾防御技术,2015,10(1):25
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