辽宁沿海地区海洋经济增长质量空间特征及影响要素
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摘要
在海洋经济质量转型之期,基于"认知—评价—建构—优化"理念,界定海洋经济增长质量内涵,通过中心-引力模型评价分析2000—2014年辽宁沿海地区海洋经济增长质量空间特征,构建了海洋经济增长质量模型,识别影响其空间特征的相关要素,并根据要素作用程度提出优化建议。研究发现:①辽宁沿海地区海洋经济增长质量呈"核心—圈层"结构,形成以大连为"领头雁"的雁阵式相互继起模式";钻石型"引力流结构促成辽宁沿海地区集中化连片发展格局;②海洋经济增长质量空间特征主要受空间集聚效应影响,海洋资本、海洋基建和海洋产业结构成为推动海洋经济增长质量循环引力流的顺流机制,其中海洋产业结构成为影响辽宁海洋经济增长质量圈层空间集聚效应的关键流;海洋人才成为制约海洋经济增长质量循环引力流的逆流机制;③通过路径作用程度的象限划分,提出强化大连中心地职能,针对腹地城市定位及资源禀赋条件提出调控措施,推进沿海区域协调与一体化进程。
Under the new normal background, marine economy in China should develop with higher quality and effectiveness. Based on the framework of "knowldege/understanding-evaluation-construction-optimization", this study defined the connotation of marine economic growth quality and used a center-gravity model to analyze the spatial structure of marine economic growth quality in Liaoning coastal areas from 2000 to 2014. A spatial econometric model was used to examine the spatial effects and influencing mechanisms for marine economic growth. Recommendations for path control were proposed according to the extent of factor effects. The study found that: 1) Marine economic growth quality in Liaoning coastal areas exhibits a "core-circles" structure,forming a goose-straddle pattern with Dalian as the leading goose. A diamond-shaped gravitational flow promotes the concentrated development for the area. 2) There is a significant spatial agglomeration effect in the gravitational flow of marine economic growth quality in Liaoning coastal areas. The results of the spatial Durbin model show that the elements of marine capital, marine infrastructure, and marine industrial structure have become downstream mechanisms that promote marine economic growth quality in the area, and marine industrial structure is the main flow for marine economic growth quality, which has obvious influence in spatial agglomeration. However, marine talents have become a constraint flow on marine economic growth quality in Liaoning coastal areas, which restricts the flow of relevant elements. 3) Through the division of path effects, we proposed to strengthen the role of Dalian as the central area, formulate control measures for cities in the hinterland based on their roles and resource endowments in the regional system, and promote the process of coordination and integration in Liaoning coastal areas.
Under the new normal background, marine economy in China should develop with higher quality and effectiveness. Based on the framework of "knowldege/understanding-evaluation-construction-optimization", this study defined the connotation of marine economic growth quality and used a center-gravity model to analyze the spatial structure of marine economic growth quality in Liaoning coastal areas from 2000 to 2014. A spatial econometric model was used to examine the spatial effects and influencing mechanisms for marine economic growth. Recommendations for path control were proposed according to the extent of factor effects. The study found that: 1) Marine economic growth quality in Liaoning coastal areas exhibits a "core-circles" structure,forming a goose-straddle pattern with Dalian as the leading goose. A diamond-shaped gravitational flow promotes the concentrated development for the area. 2) There is a significant spatial agglomeration effect in the gravitational flow of marine economic growth quality in Liaoning coastal areas. The results of the spatial Durbin model show that the elements of marine capital, marine infrastructure, and marine industrial structure have become downstream mechanisms that promote marine economic growth quality in the area, and marine industrial structure is the main flow for marine economic growth quality, which has obvious influence in spatial agglomeration. However, marine talents have become a constraint flow on marine economic growth quality in Liaoning coastal areas, which restricts the flow of relevant elements. 3) Through the division of path effects, we proposed to strengthen the role of Dalian as the central area, formulate control measures for cities in the hinterland based on their roles and resource endowments in the regional system, and promote the process of coordination and integration in Liaoning coastal areas.
引文
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郭泉恩,孙斌栋.2016.中国高技术产业创新空间分布及其影响因素:基于面板数据的空间计量分析[J].地理科学进展,35(10):1218-1227.[Guo Q E,Sun B D.2016.Spatial distribution and influencing factors of high-tech industry innovation in China:Based on spatial econometric analysis of panel data.Progress in Geography,35(10):1218-1227.]
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李博,田闯,史钊源.2017.环渤海地区海洋经济增长质量时空分异与类型划分[J].资源科学,39(11):2052-2061.[Li B,Tian C,Shi Z Y.2017.Spatio-temporal analysis and type classification of marine economic growth quality in Bohai Rim region.Resources Science,39(11):2052-2061.]
李广东,方创琳.2013.中国区域经济增长差异研究进展与展望[J].地理科学进展,32(7):1102-1112.[Li G D,Fang C L.2013.A review on divergence of regional economic growth in China.Progress in Geography,32(7):1102-1112.]
李胭胭,鲁丰先.2016.河南省经济增长质量的时空格局[J].经济地理,36(3):41-47.[Li Y Y,Lu F X.2016.Spatialtemporal pattern of economic growth quality in Henan Province.Economic Geography,36(3):41-47.]
李燕,贺灿飞.2011.新型城市分工下的城市经济联系研究[J].地理科学进展,30(8):986-994.[Li Y,He C F.2011.Urban economic linkage research under the new division of labor.Progress in Geography,30(8):986-994.]
刘东民,何帆,张春宇,等.2015.海洋金融发展与中国的海洋经济战略[J].国际经济评论,(5):43-56,5.[Liu D M,He F,Zhang C Y,et al.2015.Maritime finance and China's maritime economy strategy.International Economic Review,(5):43-56,5.]
刘海猛,方创琳,黄解军,等.2018.京津冀城市群大气污染的时空特征与影响因素解析[J].地理学报,73(1):177-191.[Liu H M,Fang C L,Huang J J,et al.2018.The spatial-temporal characteristics and influencing factors of air pollution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration.Acta Geographica Sinica,73(1):177-191.]
刘曙光,姜旭朝.2008.中国海洋经济研究30年:回顾与展望[J].中国工业经济,(11):153-160.[Liu S G,Jiang X Z.2008.The thirty years of marine economics research in China:Retrospect and prospect.China Industrial Economics,(11):153-160.]
孙才志,郭可蒙,邹玮.2017.中国区域海洋经济与海洋科技之间的协同与响应关系研究[J].资源科学,39(11):2017-2029.[Sun C Z,Guo K M,Zou W.2017.The coordination and response between regional marine economy and marine science and technology in China.Resources Science,39(11):2017-2029.]
孙才志,李欣.2015.基于核密度估计的中国海洋经济发展动态演变[J].经济地理,35(1):96-103.[Sun C Z,Li X.2015.Dynamic evolution analysis of China's marine economy development based on Kernel density estimation.Economic Geography,35(1):96-103.]
孙静,杨俊,席建超.2016.中国海洋旅游基地适宜性综合评价研究[J].资源科学,38(12):2244-2255.[Sun J,Yang J,Xi J C.2016.The comprehensive evaluation of suitability of marine tourism base in China.Resources Science,38(12):2244-2255.]
王波,韩立民.2017.中国海洋产业结构变动对海洋经济增长的影响:基于沿海11省市的面板门槛效应回归分析[J].资源科学,39(6):1182-1193.[Wang B,Han L M.2017.Impacts of marine industrial structure changes on marine economic growth for 11 coastal provinces in China.Resources Science,39(6):1182-1193.]
王茂军,徐永平.2017.中国在美洲OFDI的基本特征与决定因素[J].地理学报,72(8):1373-1391.[Wang M J,Xu YP.2017.China's OFDI in America:Basic features and determinants.Acta Geographica Sinica,72(8):1373-1391.]
王泽宇,卢雪凤,韩增林.2017.海洋资源约束与中国海洋经济增长:基于海洋资源“尾效”的计量检验[J].地理科学,37(10):1497-1506.[Wang Z Y,Lu X F,Han Z L.2017.Marine resources constraint and China's marine economic growth:Metrology analysis based on marine resources"Tail Drag".Scientia Geographica Sinica,37(10):1497-1506.]
殷克东.2016.中国海洋经济周期波动监测预警研究[M].北京:人民出版社.[Yin K D.2016.The research on the monitoring and warning of marine business cycle fluctuation in China.Beijing,China:People's Publishing House.]
曾春水,蔺雪芹,王开泳,等.2012.中国八大经济区工业竞争力空间格局及投入产出分析[J].地理科学进展,31(8):1005-1012.[Zeng C S,Lin X Q,Wang K Y,et al.2012.Research on spatial patterns and input-output analysis of industrial competitiveness of economic regions in China.Progress in Geography,31(8):1005-1012.]
张耀光.2015.中国海洋经济地理学[M].南京:东南大学出版社.[Zhang Y G.2015.China ocean economic geography.Nanjing,China:Southeast University Press.]
郑翀,蔡雪雄.2016.福建省海洋文化产业发展与海洋经济增长关系的实证分析[J].亚太经济,(5):127-131.[Zheng C,Cai X X.2016.An empirical study on the relationship of the marine culture industry and the marine economic growth in Fujian Province.Asia-Pacific Economic Review,(5):127-131.]
钟华.2008.中国海洋经济增长质量评价研究[D].青岛:中国海洋大学.[Zhong H.2008.Research on evaluating the quality of ocean economic growth in China.Qingdao,China:China Ocean University.]
Ferrol-Schulte D,Wolff M,Ferse S,et al.2013.Sustainable livelihoods approach in tropical coastal and marine socialecological systems:A review[J].Marine Policy,42(14):253-258.
Inaba K.2015.Japanese marine biological stations:Preface to the special issue[J].Regional Studies in Marine Science,2:154-157.
Jin D,Hoagland P,Dalton T M.2003.Linking economic and ecological models for a marine ecosystem[J].Ecological Economics,46(3):367-385.
Kaczynski W M.2011.The future of blue economy:Lessons for European Union[J].Foundations of Management,3(1):21-32.
Marre J B,Thébaud O,Pascoe S,et al.2016.Is economic valuation of ecosystem services useful to decision-makers?Lessons learned from Australian coastal and marine management[J].Journal of Environmental Management,178:52-62.
Nilsen G.2017.Surplus production and marine resource use in the North Norwegian Iron Age[J].International Journal of Nautical Archaeology,46(2):231-252.
Pakalniete K,Aigars J,Czajkowski M,et al.2017.Understanding the distribution of economic benefits from improving coastal and marine ecosystems[J].Science of the Total Environment,584-585:29-40.
Raubenheimer K,Mcilgorm A.2017.Is the Montreal Protocol a model that can help solve the global marine plastic debris problem?[J].Marine Policy,81:322-329.
White M,O'Sullivan G.1997.Implications of EUROGOOSon marine policy making in a small maritime economy[M]//Stel J H,Behrens H W A,Borst J C,et al.Operational Oceanography:The Challenge for European Co-operation.Elsevier Oceanography Series,Vol.62.Elsevier:278-285.
钞小静,任保平.2011.中国经济增长质量的时序变化与地区差异分析[J].经济研究,46(4):26-40.[Chao X J,Ren B P.2011.The fluctuation and regional difference of quality of economic growth in China.Economic Research Journal,46(4):26-40.]
戴彬,金刚,韩明芳.2015.中国沿海地区海洋科技全要素生产率时空格局演变及影响因素[J].地理研究,34(2):328-340.[Dai B,Jin G,Han M F.2015.Analysis on temporal and spatial evolution of marine science and technology total factor productivity and its influencing factors in Chinese coastal areas.Geographical Research,34(2):328-340.]
丁俊,王开泳.2018.珠三角城市群工业生产空间的时空演化及驱动机制[J].地理研究,37(1):53-66.[Ding J,Wang KY.2018.Spatio-temporal evolution of industrial production space and its driving mechanisms in Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration.Geographical Research,37(1):53-66.]
郭泉恩,孙斌栋.2016.中国高技术产业创新空间分布及其影响因素:基于面板数据的空间计量分析[J].地理科学进展,35(10):1218-1227.[Guo Q E,Sun B D.2016.Spatial distribution and influencing factors of high-tech industry innovation in China:Based on spatial econometric analysis of panel data.Progress in Geography,35(10):1218-1227.]
李博,苏飞,杨智,等.2018.基于脆弱性视角的环渤海地区人海关系地域系统时空特征及演化分析[J].生态学报,38(4):1436-1445.[Li B,Su F,Yang Z,et al.2018.Vulnerability-based analysis of the spatial-temporal dynamic patterns of the human-sea territorial system of the Bohai-Rim region,China.Acta Ecologica Sinica,38(4):1436-1445.]
李博,田闯,史钊源.2017.环渤海地区海洋经济增长质量时空分异与类型划分[J].资源科学,39(11):2052-2061.[Li B,Tian C,Shi Z Y.2017.Spatio-temporal analysis and type classification of marine economic growth quality in Bohai Rim region.Resources Science,39(11):2052-2061.]
李广东,方创琳.2013.中国区域经济增长差异研究进展与展望[J].地理科学进展,32(7):1102-1112.[Li G D,Fang C L.2013.A review on divergence of regional economic growth in China.Progress in Geography,32(7):1102-1112.]
李胭胭,鲁丰先.2016.河南省经济增长质量的时空格局[J].经济地理,36(3):41-47.[Li Y Y,Lu F X.2016.Spatialtemporal pattern of economic growth quality in Henan Province.Economic Geography,36(3):41-47.]
李燕,贺灿飞.2011.新型城市分工下的城市经济联系研究[J].地理科学进展,30(8):986-994.[Li Y,He C F.2011.Urban economic linkage research under the new division of labor.Progress in Geography,30(8):986-994.]
刘东民,何帆,张春宇,等.2015.海洋金融发展与中国的海洋经济战略[J].国际经济评论,(5):43-56,5.[Liu D M,He F,Zhang C Y,et al.2015.Maritime finance and China's maritime economy strategy.International Economic Review,(5):43-56,5.]
刘海猛,方创琳,黄解军,等.2018.京津冀城市群大气污染的时空特征与影响因素解析[J].地理学报,73(1):177-191.[Liu H M,Fang C L,Huang J J,et al.2018.The spatial-temporal characteristics and influencing factors of air pollution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration.Acta Geographica Sinica,73(1):177-191.]
刘曙光,姜旭朝.2008.中国海洋经济研究30年:回顾与展望[J].中国工业经济,(11):153-160.[Liu S G,Jiang X Z.2008.The thirty years of marine economics research in China:Retrospect and prospect.China Industrial Economics,(11):153-160.]
孙才志,郭可蒙,邹玮.2017.中国区域海洋经济与海洋科技之间的协同与响应关系研究[J].资源科学,39(11):2017-2029.[Sun C Z,Guo K M,Zou W.2017.The coordination and response between regional marine economy and marine science and technology in China.Resources Science,39(11):2017-2029.]
孙才志,李欣.2015.基于核密度估计的中国海洋经济发展动态演变[J].经济地理,35(1):96-103.[Sun C Z,Li X.2015.Dynamic evolution analysis of China's marine economy development based on Kernel density estimation.Economic Geography,35(1):96-103.]
孙静,杨俊,席建超.2016.中国海洋旅游基地适宜性综合评价研究[J].资源科学,38(12):2244-2255.[Sun J,Yang J,Xi J C.2016.The comprehensive evaluation of suitability of marine tourism base in China.Resources Science,38(12):2244-2255.]
王波,韩立民.2017.中国海洋产业结构变动对海洋经济增长的影响:基于沿海11省市的面板门槛效应回归分析[J].资源科学,39(6):1182-1193.[Wang B,Han L M.2017.Impacts of marine industrial structure changes on marine economic growth for 11 coastal provinces in China.Resources Science,39(6):1182-1193.]
王茂军,徐永平.2017.中国在美洲OFDI的基本特征与决定因素[J].地理学报,72(8):1373-1391.[Wang M J,Xu YP.2017.China's OFDI in America:Basic features and determinants.Acta Geographica Sinica,72(8):1373-1391.]
王泽宇,卢雪凤,韩增林.2017.海洋资源约束与中国海洋经济增长:基于海洋资源“尾效”的计量检验[J].地理科学,37(10):1497-1506.[Wang Z Y,Lu X F,Han Z L.2017.Marine resources constraint and China's marine economic growth:Metrology analysis based on marine resources"Tail Drag".Scientia Geographica Sinica,37(10):1497-1506.]
殷克东.2016.中国海洋经济周期波动监测预警研究[M].北京:人民出版社.[Yin K D.2016.The research on the monitoring and warning of marine business cycle fluctuation in China.Beijing,China:People's Publishing House.]
曾春水,蔺雪芹,王开泳,等.2012.中国八大经济区工业竞争力空间格局及投入产出分析[J].地理科学进展,31(8):1005-1012.[Zeng C S,Lin X Q,Wang K Y,et al.2012.Research on spatial patterns and input-output analysis of industrial competitiveness of economic regions in China.Progress in Geography,31(8):1005-1012.]
张耀光.2015.中国海洋经济地理学[M].南京:东南大学出版社.[Zhang Y G.2015.China ocean economic geography.Nanjing,China:Southeast University Press.]
郑翀,蔡雪雄.2016.福建省海洋文化产业发展与海洋经济增长关系的实证分析[J].亚太经济,(5):127-131.[Zheng C,Cai X X.2016.An empirical study on the relationship of the marine culture industry and the marine economic growth in Fujian Province.Asia-Pacific Economic Review,(5):127-131.]
钟华.2008.中国海洋经济增长质量评价研究[D].青岛:中国海洋大学.[Zhong H.2008.Research on evaluating the quality of ocean economic growth in China.Qingdao,China:China Ocean University.]
Ferrol-Schulte D,Wolff M,Ferse S,et al.2013.Sustainable livelihoods approach in tropical coastal and marine socialecological systems:A review[J].Marine Policy,42(14):253-258.
Inaba K.2015.Japanese marine biological stations:Preface to the special issue[J].Regional Studies in Marine Science,2:154-157.
Jin D,Hoagland P,Dalton T M.2003.Linking economic and ecological models for a marine ecosystem[J].Ecological Economics,46(3):367-385.
Kaczynski W M.2011.The future of blue economy:Lessons for European Union[J].Foundations of Management,3(1):21-32.
Marre J B,Thébaud O,Pascoe S,et al.2016.Is economic valuation of ecosystem services useful to decision-makers?Lessons learned from Australian coastal and marine management[J].Journal of Environmental Management,178:52-62.
Nilsen G.2017.Surplus production and marine resource use in the North Norwegian Iron Age[J].International Journal of Nautical Archaeology,46(2):231-252.
Pakalniete K,Aigars J,Czajkowski M,et al.2017.Understanding the distribution of economic benefits from improving coastal and marine ecosystems[J].Science of the Total Environment,584-585:29-40.
Raubenheimer K,Mcilgorm A.2017.Is the Montreal Protocol a model that can help solve the global marine plastic debris problem?[J].Marine Policy,81:322-329.
White M,O'Sullivan G.1997.Implications of EUROGOOSon marine policy making in a small maritime economy[M]//Stel J H,Behrens H W A,Borst J C,et al.Operational Oceanography:The Challenge for European Co-operation.Elsevier Oceanography Series,Vol.62.Elsevier:278-285.