气象因素对沈阳市城市居民死亡的影响
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摘要
目的探讨气象因素对沈阳城市居民死亡的影响,以便开展针对性的防控措施。方法收集2014年1月1日—2017年12月31日沈阳市五城区日死亡监测数据和气象监测数据,分析各气象因素与疾病日死亡人数的相关关系,评估气象要素对居民死亡的影响,并构建回归方程进行预警预测。结果 2014—2017年沈阳市五城区居民死亡132 327例,日均死亡人数为90.6人;传染病和寄生虫、损伤和中毒日均死亡人数与所有气象因素均无相关性;全死因日均死亡人数与气压呈正相关(r=0.277,P<0.01),与气温(r=-0.301,P<0.01)、日照时数(r=-0.072,P<0.05)、蒸发量(r=-0.241,P<0.01)及水气压(r=-0.342,P<0.01)呈负相关;后退法多因素回归分析发现大风(β=0.063,P<0.05)和低温(β=-0.387,P<0.01)天气会造成死亡人数显著上升,低温对循环系统疾病和呼吸系统疾病死亡的影响尤为明显,回归系数分别为-0.254和-0.356(均P<0.01);水汽压与呼吸系统疾病死亡的回归系数为正(β=0.193,P<0.01),与循环系统疾病和内分泌及代谢类疾病死亡负相关,回归系数分别为-0.232和-0.201。结论低温、高湿、大风会导致循环系统疾病死亡和呼吸系统疾病死亡显著增加,气象因素是影响2014—2017年沈阳市城市居民死亡的重要因素。
Objective To explore the influence of meteorological factors on mortality of urban residents in Shenyang City, so as to carry out targeted prevention and control measures. Methods Daily mortality monitoring data and meteorological monitoring data in five urban districts of Shenyang City from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2017 were collected to analyze the correlation between meteorological factors and the daily number of death, and to evaluate the impact of meteorological factors on the deaths of residents.The regression equation was established for early warning and prediction. Results Totally 132 327 death cases were reported in five urban areas of Shenyang City from 2014-2017, and the average daily death toll was 90.6. There was no significant correlation between the daily death toll of infectious diseases, parasites, injuries, poisoning and all meteorological factors. Average daily death toll of all-cause was positively correlated with air pressure(r=0.277, P<0.01), and negatively correlated with temperature(r=-0.301, P<0.01), sunshine hours(r=-0.072, P<0.05), evaporation(r=-0.241, P<0.01), and water pressure(r=-0.342,P <0.01). Multivariate backward regression analysis found that high wind(β =0.063, P <0.05) and low temperature(β =-0.387,P<0.01) would cause a significant increase in the number of deaths. The effect of hypothermia on the mortality of circulatory and respiratory diseases WAS particularly evident, and the regression coefficients were respectively-0.254 and-0.356(both P<0.01).Water vapor pressure was positively correlated with death of respiratory diseases(β=0.193, P<0.01), and negatively correlated with death of circulatory diseases, endocrine, and metabolic diseases, the regression coefficients were-0.232 and-0.201 respectively. Conclusion Low temperature, high humidity and high wind lead to a significant increase in the death of circulatory system diseases and respiratory system diseases. Meteorological factors are important factors affecting the death of urban residents in Shenyang City from 2014-2017.
Objective To explore the influence of meteorological factors on mortality of urban residents in Shenyang City, so as to carry out targeted prevention and control measures. Methods Daily mortality monitoring data and meteorological monitoring data in five urban districts of Shenyang City from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2017 were collected to analyze the correlation between meteorological factors and the daily number of death, and to evaluate the impact of meteorological factors on the deaths of residents.The regression equation was established for early warning and prediction. Results Totally 132 327 death cases were reported in five urban areas of Shenyang City from 2014-2017, and the average daily death toll was 90.6. There was no significant correlation between the daily death toll of infectious diseases, parasites, injuries, poisoning and all meteorological factors. Average daily death toll of all-cause was positively correlated with air pressure(r=0.277, P<0.01), and negatively correlated with temperature(r=-0.301, P<0.01), sunshine hours(r=-0.072, P<0.05), evaporation(r=-0.241, P<0.01), and water pressure(r=-0.342,P <0.01). Multivariate backward regression analysis found that high wind(β =0.063, P <0.05) and low temperature(β =-0.387,P<0.01) would cause a significant increase in the number of deaths. The effect of hypothermia on the mortality of circulatory and respiratory diseases WAS particularly evident, and the regression coefficients were respectively-0.254 and-0.356(both P<0.01).Water vapor pressure was positively correlated with death of respiratory diseases(β=0.193, P<0.01), and negatively correlated with death of circulatory diseases, endocrine, and metabolic diseases, the regression coefficients were-0.232 and-0.201 respectively. Conclusion Low temperature, high humidity and high wind lead to a significant increase in the death of circulatory system diseases and respiratory system diseases. Meteorological factors are important factors affecting the death of urban residents in Shenyang City from 2014-2017.
引文
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[12]韩京,张军,周林,等.极端气温对济南市心脑血管疾病死亡的影响[J].山东大学学报(医学版),2017,55(11):71-74.
[13]耿迪,孙宏,蒋薮,等.南京市呼吸系统疾病死亡人数与气象因子的关系[J].兰州大学学报(自然科学版),2015,51(1):93-97.
[14]李永红,罗书全,和晋渝,等.重庆市极端温度对心脑血管病死亡影响的时间规律分析[J].环境卫生学杂志,2018,8(6):447-452.
[15] FABIO LT,GONYALVES,SAMUEL B,et al. Influences of the weather and air pollution on cardiovascular disease in the metropolitan area of Sao Paulo[J]. Environ Res,2007,104(2):275-281.
[16]马新明,李润奎,罗凯,等.中国3城市气温与人群死亡的关系[J].基础医学与临床,2016,36(6):805-810.
[17]汪庆安,张慧玲,杨艺,等.不同温度指标与宁夏5市居民非意外死亡的关系[J].环境与职业医学,2018,35(2):148-153.
[18]张楠,侯斌,乔丽,等.气象因素对心脑血管疾病影响的研究概况[J].中西医结合心脑血管病杂志,2018,16(9):1193-1196.
[19]张雪,赵星,吴芸芸.不同湿度下日均气温对居民非意外死亡的滞后影响[J].中国卫生信息管理,2018,15(3):322-328.
[20]金爱兰,邱晓光.脑卒中与气象因素关系分析[J].医学信息,2004,17(9):525-527.
[21]张天星,郝宇,贺娟.冬季咳嗽与秋季气象因子的相关性探讨[J].北京中医药大学学报,2016,39(2):119-121.
[2]KEATINGER WR,DONALSON GC,BUCHER K. Cold exposure and winter mortality from ischemic heart disease cerebrovascular disease,and all causes in warm and cold regions of Europe. The Euro winter Group[J]. Lancet,1997,349(9062):1341-1346.
[3]苏清菊,石光普,武双琴,等.白银地区呼吸道疾病与气象条件关系分析及预防措施[J].卫生职业教育,2011,29(21):123-125.
[4]周启星.气候变化对环境与健康影响研究进展[J].气象与环境学报,2006,22(1):39-43.
[5]莫运政,郑亚安,陶辉,等.日均气温与呼吸系统疾病急诊人次相关性的时间序列分析[J].北京大学学报(医学版),2012,44(3):416-420.
[6]华静,高思华,贺娟.气象因素与北京地区肺炎发病的相关性研究[J].北京中医药大学学报,2010,33(4):250-252.
[7]北京协和医院世界卫生组织疾病分类合作中心.疾病和有关疾控问题的国际统计分类(第十次修订本)[M].北京:人民卫生出版社,1996:1-893.
[8]中国气象数据网[EB/OL].(2018-8-20).[2018-8-20].http://data.cma.cn/data/cdcindex/cid/0092ac7210ca525f.html.
[9]HUYNEN MM,MARTENS P,SCHARM D,et al. The impact of heat waves and cold spells on mortality rates in the Dutch population[J].Environ Health Perspect,2001,109(5):463-470.
[10]REVICH B,SHAPOSHNIKOV D. Excess mortality during heat waves and cold spells in Moscow[J]. Russia,2008,65(10):691-696.
[11]HUANG CR,ADRIAN GB,WANG XM,et al. Effects of extreme temperatures on years of life lost for cardiovascular deaths:a time series study in Brisbane,Australia[J]. Circ Cardiovasc Qual Outcomes,2012,5(5):609-614.
[12]韩京,张军,周林,等.极端气温对济南市心脑血管疾病死亡的影响[J].山东大学学报(医学版),2017,55(11):71-74.
[13]耿迪,孙宏,蒋薮,等.南京市呼吸系统疾病死亡人数与气象因子的关系[J].兰州大学学报(自然科学版),2015,51(1):93-97.
[14]李永红,罗书全,和晋渝,等.重庆市极端温度对心脑血管病死亡影响的时间规律分析[J].环境卫生学杂志,2018,8(6):447-452.
[15] FABIO LT,GONYALVES,SAMUEL B,et al. Influences of the weather and air pollution on cardiovascular disease in the metropolitan area of Sao Paulo[J]. Environ Res,2007,104(2):275-281.
[16]马新明,李润奎,罗凯,等.中国3城市气温与人群死亡的关系[J].基础医学与临床,2016,36(6):805-810.
[17]汪庆安,张慧玲,杨艺,等.不同温度指标与宁夏5市居民非意外死亡的关系[J].环境与职业医学,2018,35(2):148-153.
[18]张楠,侯斌,乔丽,等.气象因素对心脑血管疾病影响的研究概况[J].中西医结合心脑血管病杂志,2018,16(9):1193-1196.
[19]张雪,赵星,吴芸芸.不同湿度下日均气温对居民非意外死亡的滞后影响[J].中国卫生信息管理,2018,15(3):322-328.
[20]金爱兰,邱晓光.脑卒中与气象因素关系分析[J].医学信息,2004,17(9):525-527.
[21]张天星,郝宇,贺娟.冬季咳嗽与秋季气象因子的相关性探讨[J].北京中医药大学学报,2016,39(2):119-121.
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