基于中国山洪水文模型的动态临界雨量研究及应用
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摘要
以中国山洪水文模型为基础,综合考虑前期影响雨量、累积雨量、降雨强度及雨型分布、地形地貌等因素的影响,提出了基于分布式水文模型的小流域动态临界雨量预警指标分析方法。以四川省不同水文分区3个典型小流域(赶场、西宁和新生流域)为例,评估了该指标用于小流域山洪预警的精度。研究表明:(1)中国山洪水文模型在研究区内具有较好的适用性,3个小流域率定期和验证期的山洪模拟合格率均在90%以上;(2)以1h、3h和6h为预警时段,赶场、西宁和新生流域的临界雨量分别为20～250mm、12～160mm、6～140mm;(3)不同预警时段下,3个小流域山洪预警的合格率达到80%以上。研究成果可为小流域山洪预警提供理论支持和技术支撑。
Flash flood warning at catchment scale was determined by dynamic rainfall threshold using China Flash Flood Hydrological Model(CNFF),considering antecedent soil moistures,accumulated rainfall depths,rainfall intensities,rainfall temporal patterns,and topographies.Three typical catchments of different hydrological characteristics were selected in the Sichuan province as study area to assess the accuracy of CNFF for early warning flash floods.Results show that:(1)CNFF was suitable for flash flood simulation in the study area,and the qualifying ratios were over 90%in the selected catchments;(2)With rainfall durations of 1 h,3 h,and 6 h,the critical rainfall thresholds were obtained as 20～250 mm,12～160 mm,6～140 mm for Ganchang catchment,Xining catchment,and Xinsheng catchment,respectively;(3)The qualifying ratios for flash flood warning were over 80% under different rainfall durations for all catchments.This study may provide technical support for early warning flash floods at catchment scales.
Flash flood warning at catchment scale was determined by dynamic rainfall threshold using China Flash Flood Hydrological Model(CNFF),considering antecedent soil moistures,accumulated rainfall depths,rainfall intensities,rainfall temporal patterns,and topographies.Three typical catchments of different hydrological characteristics were selected in the Sichuan province as study area to assess the accuracy of CNFF for early warning flash floods.Results show that:(1)CNFF was suitable for flash flood simulation in the study area,and the qualifying ratios were over 90%in the selected catchments;(2)With rainfall durations of 1 h,3 h,and 6 h,the critical rainfall thresholds were obtained as 20～250 mm,12～160 mm,6～140 mm for Ganchang catchment,Xining catchment,and Xinsheng catchment,respectively;(3)The qualifying ratios for flash flood warning were over 80% under different rainfall durations for all catchments.This study may provide technical support for early warning flash floods at catchment scales.
引文
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[8]于艳梅．山洪灾害动态临界雨量确定方法研究[J]．水资源开发与管理，2018(2):23-25.(YU Y M.Study on determination method of dynamic critical rainfall of mountain flood disaster[J]. Water Resources Development and Management,2018(2):23-25.(in Chinese))DOI:10.16616/j.cnki.10-1326/TV.2018.02.06.
[9]练继建，杨伟超，徐奎，等．山洪灾害预警研究进展与展望[J]．水力发电学报，2018,37(11):1-14.(LIAN J Y,YANG W C,XU K,et al.Advances and prospect of flash flood forecasting[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2018,37(11):1-14.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11660/slfdxb.20181101.
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[12]郭克伦，梁国华，何斌．基于API水文模型的动态临界雨量山洪预警方法及应用[J]．水电能源科学，2016,34(12):74-77.(GUO K L,LIANG G H,HE B.Dynamic critical precipitation flash flood warning method and its application based on API hydrologic model[J].Water Resources and Power,2016,34(12):74-77.(in Chinese))
[13]陈瑜杉，杨文发，许银山．不同土壤含水量的动态临界雨量拟定方法研究[J]．人民长江，2015,46(12):21-26.(CHEN Y S,YANG W F,XU Y S.Study of dynamic critical precipitation drafted method under different soil moisture content level[J].Yangtze River,2015,46(12):21-26.(in Chinese))DOI:10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2015.12.006.
[14]江锦红，邵利萍．基于降雨观测资料的山洪预警标准[J]．水利学报，2010,41(4):458-463.(JIANG J H,SHAO L P.Standard of mountain flood warning based on the precipitation observation data[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2010,41(4):458-463.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.2010.04.003.
[15]程卫帅．山洪灾害临界雨量研究综述[J]．水科学进展，2013,24(6):901-908.(CHENG W S.A review of rainfall thresholds for triggering flash floods[J].Advances in Water Science,2013,24(6):901-908.(in Chinese))DOI:10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2013.06.012.
[16]赵然杭，王敏，陆小蕾．山洪灾害雨量预警指标确定方法研究[J]．水电能源科学，2011,29(9):49-53.(ZHAO R H,WANG M,LU X L.Research on determination method for rainfall warning indexes of torrential flood disaster[J].Water Resources and Power,2011,29(9):49-53.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-7709.2011.09.014.
[17]陈桂亚，袁雅鸣．山洪灾害临界雨量分析计算方法研究[J]．人民长江，2005,36(12):40-43,54.(CHEN G Y,YUAN Y M.Research on critical precipitation amount computation method of mountain torrential flood disaster[J].Yangtze River,2005,36(12):40-43,54.(in Chinese))DOI:10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2005.12.018.
[18]张玉龙，王龙，李靖，等．云南省山洪灾害临界雨量空间插值分析方法研究[J]．云南农业大学学报，2007,22(4):570-573,581.(ZHANG Y L,WANG L,LI J,et al.Research into special gridding analysis methods on critical rainfall of mountain disasters in Yunnan province[J].Journal of Yunnan Agricultural University,2007,22(4):570-573,581.(in Chinese))DOI:10.16211/j.issn.1004-390x(n).2007.04.005.
[19]樊建勇，单九生，管珉，等．江西省小流域山洪灾害临界雨量计算分析[J]．气象，2012,38(9):1110-1114.(FAN J Y,SHAN J S,GUAN M,et al.Research on analysis and calculation method of critical precipitation of mountain torrents in Jiangxi province[J].Meteorological Monthly,2012,38(9):1110-1114.(in Chinese))
[20]施征，陈焕宝．分布式水文模型在山洪雨量预警指标确定中的应用[J]．水电能源科学，2017,35(2):79-81.(SHI Z,CHEN H B.Application of distributed hydrologic model in determination of mountain torrent warning index[J].Water Resources and Power,2017,35(2):79-81.(in Chinese))
[21]贺拿，陈宁生，曾梅，等．白鹤滩水电站坝址近场区泥石流临界雨量研究[J]．水利学报，2015,46(2):239-247.(HE N,CHEN N S,ZENG M,et al.Study on debris flow rainfall threshold of Baihetan hydropower station near-zone area[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2015,46(2):239-247.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.2015.02.014.
[22]林志强，尼玛吉，黄志诚．西藏东南部山洪灾害过程水文动力模拟和临界雨量[J]．水土保持通报，2017,37(1):183-187,195.(LIN Z Q,NIMAJI,HUANG Z C.Hydrological dynamics simulation and critical rainfall for flash flood in Southeastern Tibet[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2017,37(1):183-187,195.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2017.01.033.
[23]四川省水利电力厅．四川省中小流域暴雨洪水计算手册[M].1984.(Department of Water Resources and Electricity of Sichuan Province.Handbook for storm and flood calculation in small-medium sized catchments of Sichuan province[M].1984.(in Chinese))
[24] ZHAI X Y,GUO L,LIU R H,et al.Rainfall threshold determination for flash flood warning in mountainous catchments with consideration of antecedent soil moisture and rainfall pattern[J].Natural Hazards,2018,94(2):606-625.DOI:10.1007/s11069-018-3404-y.
[25] WANG Y L,LIU R H,GUO L,et al.Forecasting and providing warnings of flash floods for ungauged mountainous areas based on a distributed hydrological model[J].Water,2017,9(10),776.DOI:10.3390/w9100776.
[26] GB/T22482-2008，水文情报预报规范[S].(GB/T22482-2008,Standard for hydrological information and hydrological forecasting[S].(in Chinese))
[27]全国山洪灾害防治项目组．山洪灾害分析评价方法指南[R].2015.(National Flash Flood Disaster Prevention and Control Project Team.Guidelines for flash flood disaster investigation and evaluation[R].2015.(in Chinese))
[28]四川省水利电力局水文总站．四川省水文手册[M].1979.(General Hydrological Station of Sichuan Provincial Bureau of Water Conservancy and Electric Power.Sichuan Hydrological Manual[M].1979.(in Chinese))
[29] WHERRY R J.A new formula for predicting the shrinkage of the coefficient of multiple correlation[J].Annals of Mathematical Statistics,1931,2(4):440-457.
[2] HAPUARACHCHI H A P,WANG Q J,PAGANO T C.A review of advances in flash flood forecasting[J].Hydrological Processes,2011,25(18):2771-2784.DOI:10.1002/hyp.8040.
[3]全国山洪灾害防治规划领导小组办公室．全国山洪灾害防治规划[R].2006.(Office of National Flash Flood Prevention and Control.Planning of National Flash Flood Prevention and Control[R].2006.(in Chinese))
[4]赵士鹏．中国山洪灾害系统的整体特征及其危险度区划的初步研究[J]．自然灾害学报，1996,5(3):93-99.(ZHAO S P.An elementary study on whole characteristics of mountain torrents disaster system in China and its hazard region alization[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,1996,5(3):93-99.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13577/j.jnd.1996.0315.
[5]郭良，丁留谦，孙东亚，等．中国山洪灾害防御关键技术[J]．水利学报，2018,49(9):1123-1136.(GUO L,DING L Q,SUN D Y,et al.Key techniques of flash flood disaster prevention in China[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2018,49(9):1123-1136.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20180728.
[6]刘志雨．山洪预警预报技术研究与应用[J]．中国防汛抗旱，2012,22(2):41-45,50.(LIU Z Y.Research and application of flash flood warning and forecasting techniques[J].China Flood&Drought Management,2012,22(2):41-45,50.(in Chinese))DOI:10.16867/j.cnki.cfdm.2012.02.014.
[7]叶金印，李致家，常露．基于动态临界雨量的山洪预警方法研究与应用[J]．气象，2014,40(1):101-107.(YE J Y,LI Z J,CHANG L.Research and application of flash flood early warning method based on dynamic critical precipitation[J].Meteorological Monthly,2014,40(1):101-107.(in Chinese))
[8]于艳梅．山洪灾害动态临界雨量确定方法研究[J]．水资源开发与管理，2018(2):23-25.(YU Y M.Study on determination method of dynamic critical rainfall of mountain flood disaster[J]. Water Resources Development and Management,2018(2):23-25.(in Chinese))DOI:10.16616/j.cnki.10-1326/TV.2018.02.06.
[9]练继建，杨伟超，徐奎，等．山洪灾害预警研究进展与展望[J]．水力发电学报，2018,37(11):1-14.(LIAN J Y,YANG W C,XU K,et al.Advances and prospect of flash flood forecasting[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2018,37(11):1-14.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11660/slfdxb.20181101.
[10] CARPENTER T M,SPERFSLAGE J A,GEORGAKAKOS K P,et al.National threshold runoff estimation utilizing GIS in support of operational flash flood warning systems[J].Journal of Hydrology,1999,224(1-2):21-44.DOI:10.1016/S0022-1694(99)00115-8.
[11]刘志雨，杨大文，胡建伟．基于动态临界雨量的中小河流山洪预警方法及其应用[J]．北京师范大学学报，2010,46(3):317-321.(LIU Z Y,YANG D W,HU J W.Dynamic critical rainfall-based torrential flood early warning for medium-small rivers[J].Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science),2010,46(3):317-321.(in Chinese))
[12]郭克伦，梁国华，何斌．基于API水文模型的动态临界雨量山洪预警方法及应用[J]．水电能源科学，2016,34(12):74-77.(GUO K L,LIANG G H,HE B.Dynamic critical precipitation flash flood warning method and its application based on API hydrologic model[J].Water Resources and Power,2016,34(12):74-77.(in Chinese))
[13]陈瑜杉，杨文发，许银山．不同土壤含水量的动态临界雨量拟定方法研究[J]．人民长江，2015,46(12):21-26.(CHEN Y S,YANG W F,XU Y S.Study of dynamic critical precipitation drafted method under different soil moisture content level[J].Yangtze River,2015,46(12):21-26.(in Chinese))DOI:10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2015.12.006.
[14]江锦红，邵利萍．基于降雨观测资料的山洪预警标准[J]．水利学报，2010,41(4):458-463.(JIANG J H,SHAO L P.Standard of mountain flood warning based on the precipitation observation data[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2010,41(4):458-463.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.2010.04.003.
[15]程卫帅．山洪灾害临界雨量研究综述[J]．水科学进展，2013,24(6):901-908.(CHENG W S.A review of rainfall thresholds for triggering flash floods[J].Advances in Water Science,2013,24(6):901-908.(in Chinese))DOI:10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2013.06.012.
[16]赵然杭，王敏，陆小蕾．山洪灾害雨量预警指标确定方法研究[J]．水电能源科学，2011,29(9):49-53.(ZHAO R H,WANG M,LU X L.Research on determination method for rainfall warning indexes of torrential flood disaster[J].Water Resources and Power,2011,29(9):49-53.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-7709.2011.09.014.
[17]陈桂亚，袁雅鸣．山洪灾害临界雨量分析计算方法研究[J]．人民长江，2005,36(12):40-43,54.(CHEN G Y,YUAN Y M.Research on critical precipitation amount computation method of mountain torrential flood disaster[J].Yangtze River,2005,36(12):40-43,54.(in Chinese))DOI:10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2005.12.018.
[18]张玉龙，王龙，李靖，等．云南省山洪灾害临界雨量空间插值分析方法研究[J]．云南农业大学学报，2007,22(4):570-573,581.(ZHANG Y L,WANG L,LI J,et al.Research into special gridding analysis methods on critical rainfall of mountain disasters in Yunnan province[J].Journal of Yunnan Agricultural University,2007,22(4):570-573,581.(in Chinese))DOI:10.16211/j.issn.1004-390x(n).2007.04.005.
[19]樊建勇，单九生，管珉，等．江西省小流域山洪灾害临界雨量计算分析[J]．气象，2012,38(9):1110-1114.(FAN J Y,SHAN J S,GUAN M,et al.Research on analysis and calculation method of critical precipitation of mountain torrents in Jiangxi province[J].Meteorological Monthly,2012,38(9):1110-1114.(in Chinese))
[20]施征，陈焕宝．分布式水文模型在山洪雨量预警指标确定中的应用[J]．水电能源科学，2017,35(2):79-81.(SHI Z,CHEN H B.Application of distributed hydrologic model in determination of mountain torrent warning index[J].Water Resources and Power,2017,35(2):79-81.(in Chinese))
[21]贺拿，陈宁生，曾梅，等．白鹤滩水电站坝址近场区泥石流临界雨量研究[J]．水利学报，2015,46(2):239-247.(HE N,CHEN N S,ZENG M,et al.Study on debris flow rainfall threshold of Baihetan hydropower station near-zone area[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2015,46(2):239-247.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.2015.02.014.
[22]林志强，尼玛吉，黄志诚．西藏东南部山洪灾害过程水文动力模拟和临界雨量[J]．水土保持通报，2017,37(1):183-187,195.(LIN Z Q,NIMAJI,HUANG Z C.Hydrological dynamics simulation and critical rainfall for flash flood in Southeastern Tibet[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2017,37(1):183-187,195.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2017.01.033.
[23]四川省水利电力厅．四川省中小流域暴雨洪水计算手册[M].1984.(Department of Water Resources and Electricity of Sichuan Province.Handbook for storm and flood calculation in small-medium sized catchments of Sichuan province[M].1984.(in Chinese))
[24] ZHAI X Y,GUO L,LIU R H,et al.Rainfall threshold determination for flash flood warning in mountainous catchments with consideration of antecedent soil moisture and rainfall pattern[J].Natural Hazards,2018,94(2):606-625.DOI:10.1007/s11069-018-3404-y.
[25] WANG Y L,LIU R H,GUO L,et al.Forecasting and providing warnings of flash floods for ungauged mountainous areas based on a distributed hydrological model[J].Water,2017,9(10),776.DOI:10.3390/w9100776.
[26] GB/T22482-2008，水文情报预报规范[S].(GB/T22482-2008,Standard for hydrological information and hydrological forecasting[S].(in Chinese))
[27]全国山洪灾害防治项目组．山洪灾害分析评价方法指南[R].2015.(National Flash Flood Disaster Prevention and Control Project Team.Guidelines for flash flood disaster investigation and evaluation[R].2015.(in Chinese))
[28]四川省水利电力局水文总站．四川省水文手册[M].1979.(General Hydrological Station of Sichuan Provincial Bureau of Water Conservancy and Electric Power.Sichuan Hydrological Manual[M].1979.(in Chinese))
[29] WHERRY R J.A new formula for predicting the shrinkage of the coefficient of multiple correlation[J].Annals of Mathematical Statistics,1931,2(4):440-457.