气候变化背景下玉龙雪山漾弓江流域径流变化及其影响因素分析
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摘要
利用1979-2016年金沙江支流漾弓江流域木家桥水文站流量资料和丽江市气象资料,揭示了漾弓江流域径流变化特征及其主要影响因素。研究结果表明:漾弓江流域年径流量呈先增加后减小趋势。在年代际时间尺度, 20世纪80年代、 90年代以及2000-2009年,径流量呈现增加趋势,而2010-2016年径流量呈减小趋势,与2000-2009年相比, 2010-2016年径流量减少了42%(减少径流量为0.88×10~8 m~3)。气温和降水量对径流的影响均较为显著,其中,降水量对径流的影响主要体现在雨季,而气温对径流的影响主要体现在消融期。气温升高导致冰川累积负物质平衡,进而引起冰雪融水变化,漾弓江流域2000-2009年径流变化的主要原因。
Based on the runoff data at Mujiaqiao hydrological station of Yanggong River basin and the meteorological data of Lijiang city during the period 1979-2016, this study analyzed the variation of the runoff and its main influencing factors. The results showed that the discharge of the Yanggong River basin exhibited an increasing trend and then decreasing trend during the study period. Though the discharge increased during 1980 s, 1990 s and 2000-2009, the discharge decreased during 2010-2016. The discharge during 2010-2016 decreased by 42%(0.88×10~8 m~3) compared with the average discharge of 2000-2009. Moreover, the correlation analysis showed that precipitation and temperature were the main control factors for the Yanggong River runoff. The influence of precipitation on discharge mainly occurred in rainy season whereas the influence of temperature on discharge mainly occurred in melting season. The variation of snow and ice meltwater caused by the rising temperature resulted in the different change of runoff and precipitation.
Based on the runoff data at Mujiaqiao hydrological station of Yanggong River basin and the meteorological data of Lijiang city during the period 1979-2016, this study analyzed the variation of the runoff and its main influencing factors. The results showed that the discharge of the Yanggong River basin exhibited an increasing trend and then decreasing trend during the study period. Though the discharge increased during 1980 s, 1990 s and 2000-2009, the discharge decreased during 2010-2016. The discharge during 2010-2016 decreased by 42%(0.88×10~8 m~3) compared with the average discharge of 2000-2009. Moreover, the correlation analysis showed that precipitation and temperature were the main control factors for the Yanggong River runoff. The influence of precipitation on discharge mainly occurred in rainy season whereas the influence of temperature on discharge mainly occurred in melting season. The variation of snow and ice meltwater caused by the rising temperature resulted in the different change of runoff and precipitation.
引文
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[23] Yang Miao,Ye Baisheng,Peng Peihao,et al.A simulation of glacial runoff at headwaters of the Urumqi River[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2012,34(1):130-138.[杨淼,叶柏生,彭培好,等.天山乌鲁木齐河源区1号冰川径流模拟研究[J].冰川冻土,2012,34(1):130-138.]
[2] Qin Dahe.Climate and environment changes in China[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2012.[秦大河.中国气候与环境演变[M].北京:气象出版社,2012.]
[3] Leng Shuying.Geographical science for thirty years:from classics to frontiers[M].Beijing:The Commercial Press,2016.[冷疏影.地理科学三十年:从经典到前沿[M].北京:商务印书馆,2016.]
[4] Singh P,Bengtsson L.Hydrological sensitivity of a large Himalayan basin to climate change[J].Hydrological Processes,2004,18(13):2363-2385.
[5] Chevallier P,Pouyaud B,Suarez W,et al.Climate change threats to environment in the tropical Andes:glaciers and water resources[J].Regional Environmental Change,2011,11(1):179-187.
[6] Ding Yongjian.Introduction of hydrology in cold region[M].Beijing:Science Press,2017.[丁永建.寒区水文导论[M].北京:科学出版社,2017.]
[7] Yang Chunli,Lan Yongchao,Wang Ninglian,et al.Mountainous runoff changes and climate factors analysis of the Shule River basin in 1958-2015[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2017,37(12):1894-1899.[杨春利,蓝永超,王宁练,等.1958-2015年疏勒河上游出山径流变化及其气候因素分析[J].地理科学,2017,37(12):1894-1899.]
[8] Ye Xuchun,Zhang Qi,Liu Jian,et al.Impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff of Poyang Lake catchment[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2009,31(5):835-842.[叶许春,张奇,刘健,等.气候变化和人类活动对鄱阳湖流域径流变化的影响研究[J].冰川冻土,2009,31(5):835-842.]
[9] Zhang Liping,Li Lingcheng,Xia Jun,et al.Quantitative assessment of the impact of climate variability and human activities on runoff change in the Luanhe River catchment[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2015,30(4):664-672.[张利平,李凌程,夏军,等.气候波动和人类活动对滦河流域径流变化的定量影响分析[J].自然资源学报,2015,30(4):664-672.]
[10] Hou Qinlei,Bai Hongying,Ren Yuanyuan,et al.Analysis of variation in runoff of the main stream of the Weihe River and related driving forces over the last 50 years[J].Resources Science,2011,33(8):1505-1512.[侯钦磊,白红英,任园园,等.50年来渭河干流径流变化及其驱动力分析[J].资源科学,2011,33(8):1505-1512.]
[11] Lan Yongchao,Ding Yongjian,Shen Yongping,et al.Responding of river streamflow to the climate shift in the Hexi Inland region[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geography,2003,25(2):188-192.[蓝永超,丁永建,沈永平,等.河西内陆河流域出山径流对候转型的响应[J].冰川冻土,2003,25(2):188-192.]
[12] Zhang Xiaoxiao,Zhang Yu,Xu Haojie,et al.Mountainous runoff change in three inland river basin in Hexi Corridor and its influencing factors[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2014,28(4):66-72.[张晓晓,张钰,徐浩杰,等.河西走廊三大内陆河流域出山径流变化特征及其影响因素分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2014,28(4):66-72.]
[13] Du Jiankuo.Analysis of changing features and climate sensitivity of glaciers in Mt.Yulong temperate glacier region[D].Beijing:University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2014.[杜建括.玉龙雪山现代温冰川动态及其气候敏感性研究[D].北京:中国科学院大学,2014.]
[14] Du Jiankuo,He Yuanqing,Li Shuang,et al.Mass balance and near-surface ice temperature structure of Baishui Glacier No.1 in Mt.Yulong[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences,2013,23(4):668-678.
[15] Pu Tao,He Yuanqing,Zhu Guofeng,et al.Hydrochemical characteristics of typical rivers in a temperate glacier basin,China[J].Environmental Earth Science,2013,68(3):615-621.
[16] Pu Tao,Qin Dahe,Kang Shichang,et al.Water isotopes and hydrograph separation in different glacial catchments in the southeast margin of the Tibetan Plateau[J].Hydrological Processes,2017,31(22):3810-3826.
[17] Fan Tao,Yang Shiyu.Groundwater vulnerability assessment in Lijiang Basin[J].Journal of Jilin University (Earth Science Edition),2007,37(3):551-556.[范弢,杨世瑜.云南丽江盆地地下水脆弱性评价[J].吉林大学学报(地球科学版),2007,37(3):551-556.]
[18] Fan Tao.Research on the evolution process and trend of eco-geological environment of Lijiang,northwest of Yunnan[D].Kunming:Kunming University of Science and Technology,2008.[范弢.云南丽江生态地质环境演化过程与趋势研究[D].昆明:昆明理工大学,2008.]
[19] Qi Dongmei,Li Yueqing,Chen Yongren,et al.Changing characteristics and cause analysis of the runoff in the source regions of the Yangtze River under the background of climate change[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2015,37(4):1075-1086.[齐冬梅,李跃清,陈永仁,等.气候变化背景下长江源区径流变化特征及其成因分析[J].冰川冻土,2015,37(4):1075-1086.]
[20] Ye Baisheng,Ding Yongjian,Kang Ersi,et al.Response of snow melt and glacier runoff to the climate warming-up in the last 40 years in Xinjiang Autonomous Region,China[J].Science in China:Series D Earth Sciences,1999,29(Suppl 1):40-46.[叶佰生,丁永建,康尔泗,等.近40 a来新疆地区冰雪径流对气候变暖的响应[J].中国科学:D辑地球科学,1999,29(增刊1):40-46.]
[21] Yan Xingguo,He Yuanqing,Zhang Songlin,et al.Analysis of surface flow velocity on the Baishui Glacier No.1 during ablation period in the Yulong Mountain[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2017,39(6):1212-1220.[燕兴国,何元庆,张松林,等.玉龙雪山白水河1号冰川消融期表面流速特征分析[J].冰川冻土,2017,39(6):1212-1220.]
[22] Song Gaoju,Wang Ninglian,Chen Liang,et al.Analysis of the recent features of the meltwater runoff from the Qiyi Glacier,Qilian Mountains[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2008,30(2) 321-328.[宋高举,王宁练,陈亮,等.祁连山近期七一冰川融水径流特征分析[J].冰川冻土,2008,30(2):321-328.]
[23] Yang Miao,Ye Baisheng,Peng Peihao,et al.A simulation of glacial runoff at headwaters of the Urumqi River[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2012,34(1):130-138.[杨淼,叶柏生,彭培好,等.天山乌鲁木齐河源区1号冰川径流模拟研究[J].冰川冻土,2012,34(1):130-138.]