锡林郭勒草原荒漠化灾害风险动态评价
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摘要
利用自然灾害风险指数法、集对分析法、熵组合权重法和格网GIS等方法,构建了锡林郭勒草原荒漠化灾害风险评价指标体系与模型,并对该区1990,2000,2010和2015年的荒漠化灾害风险进行了动态评价与区划.结果表明:研究时段内,研究区荒漠化灾害风险经历了增大—减小—增大的过程,以低风险到中等风险、中等风险到极高风险的转移模式为主;空间上,研究区西部易出现高和极高风险,极高风险等级的重心点由正镶白旗南部迁移至苏尼特左旗中部,从侧面证实了荒漠化灾害风险等级有向西南增高之势,而极低风险等级和低风险等级主要集中在西乌珠穆沁旗,亦说明了东北地区荒漠化灾害风险等级较小.
Using natural disaster risk index method,set pair analysis method,entropy combination weight method and grid GIS method,the risk assessment index system and model of desertification disaster in Xilingol Grassland were constructed,and the desertification disaster risk in 1990,2000,2010 and 2015 has been dynamically evaluated and zoned.The results shown that in the study period,the risk of desertification disaster in the study area has experienced a process of increasing,decreasing and increasing,with a low to medium and medium to extremely high-risk transfer model.In space,the western part of the study area is prone to high and extremely high risks.The center of gravity of the extremely high-risk level migrated from the southern part of Zhengxiangbai Banner to the central part of Sonid Left Banner,confirming that the level of desertification disaster risk has increased to the southwest.The extremely low risk level and low risk level are mainly concentrated in the West Ujimqin Banner,which also indicates that the risk level of desertification disasters is small in the northeast.
Using natural disaster risk index method,set pair analysis method,entropy combination weight method and grid GIS method,the risk assessment index system and model of desertification disaster in Xilingol Grassland were constructed,and the desertification disaster risk in 1990,2000,2010 and 2015 has been dynamically evaluated and zoned.The results shown that in the study period,the risk of desertification disaster in the study area has experienced a process of increasing,decreasing and increasing,with a low to medium and medium to extremely high-risk transfer model.In space,the western part of the study area is prone to high and extremely high risks.The center of gravity of the extremely high-risk level migrated from the southern part of Zhengxiangbai Banner to the central part of Sonid Left Banner,confirming that the level of desertification disaster risk has increased to the southwest.The extremely low risk level and low risk level are mainly concentrated in the West Ujimqin Banner,which also indicates that the risk level of desertification disasters is small in the northeast.
引文
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[22]王思远,刘纪远,张增祥,等.中国土地利用时空特征分析[J].地理学报,2001,56(6):631-639.
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[24]李苗苗.植被覆盖度的遥感估算方法研究[D].北京:中国科学院遥感应用研究所,2003.
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[27]WANG Y F,ZHANG J Q,GUO E L,et al.Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation-based disaster risk assessment of desertification in Horqin Sand Land,China[J].International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health,2015,12(2):1703-1725.
[28]孙仲益,张继权,王春乙,等.基于网格GIS的安徽省旱涝组合风险区划[J].灾害学,2013,28(1):74-78.
[2]于国茂.锡林郭勒盟生态系统时空变化及其驱动机制[D].济南:山东师范大学,2011.
[3]李兴华,魏玉荣,张存厚,等.内蒙古草地面积的变化及其成因分析:以锡林郭勒盟多伦县为例[J].草业科学,2012,29(1):19-24.
[4]李秋月.气候变化及放牧对内蒙古草地的影响与适应对策[D].北京:中国农业大学,2015.
[5]佟哈斯毕力格.锡林郭勒草原荒漠化灾害风险评价[D].呼和浩特:内蒙古师范大学,2013.
[6]刘树林,王涛.锡林郭勒草原地区土地沙漠化初步研究[J].水土保持学报,2004,18(5):99-10.
[7]康相武,吴绍洪,刘雪华.锡林郭勒草原土地沙漠化时空演变规律研究[J].水土保持学报,2009,23(1):1-6.
[8]李鸿威,杨小平.锡林郭勒草原近30年来土地沙漠化研究进展与问题[J].地球科学进展,2010,25(6):647-655.
[9]马清霞,王星晨,高志国.锡林郭勒草原荒漠化气候因素分析[J].环境与发展,2011(12):31-34.
[10]吴波,李晓松,刘文,等.京津风沙源工程区沙漠化防治区划与治理对策研究[J].林业科学,2006,42(10):65-70.
[11]闫志辉.内蒙古锡林郭勒盟退化与沙化草地现状及治理对策[J].草原与草业,2014(2):8-11.
[12]孙云飞.浅谈锡林郭勒盟正蓝旗沙漠化成因及对策[J].内蒙古水利,2015(5):80-80.
[13]张继权,刘兴朋,严登华.综合灾害风险管理导论[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2012.
[14]INTERNATIONAL STRATEGY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION.Living with risk:aglobal review of disaster reduction initiatives[M].Geneva:United Nations,2004.
[15]ROSELLM P,MARTINEZ J V,NAVARRO,B A.Vulnerability of human environment to risk:case of groundwater contamination risk[J].Environment International,2009,35(2):325-335.
[16]赵克勤.集对分析及其初步应用[J].大自然探索,1994,13(47):67-72.
[17]吴成国,王义民,唐言明,等.基于集对分析的洪水危险性评价可变模糊识别模型[J].西北农林科技大学学报(自然科学版),2012,40(1):221-226.
[18]崔亮,张继权,包玉龙,等.呼伦贝尔草原火灾风险预警研究[J].草业学报,2012,21(4):282-292.
[19]彭涛,陈晓宏,王高旭,等.基于集对分析与三角模糊数的滨海湿地生态系统健康评价[J].生态环境学报,2014(6):917-922.
[20]GUO E L,ZHANG J Q,REN X H,et al.Integrated risk assessment of flood disaster based on improved set pair analysis and the variable fuzzy set theory in central Liaoning Province,China[J].Natural Hazards,2014,74(2):947-965.
[21]VICENTE-SERRANO S M,BEGUERA S,LPEZ-MORENO J I.A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming:the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index[J].Journal of Climate,2010,23:1696-1718.
[22]王思远,刘纪远,张增祥,等.中国土地利用时空特征分析[J].地理学报,2001,56(6):631-639.
[23]贾科利,张俊华,马正亮,等.生态脆弱区土地利用变化与沙漠化响应研究---以宁夏中部干旱带为例[J].干旱区资源与环境,2011,25(10):98-103.
[24]李苗苗.植被覆盖度的遥感估算方法研究[D].北京:中国科学院遥感应用研究所,2003.
[25]包慧娟.沙漠化地区可持续发展研究[D].长春:中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所,2004.
[26]苏大学.天然草地合理载畜量的计算[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2003:2-8.
[27]WANG Y F,ZHANG J Q,GUO E L,et al.Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation-based disaster risk assessment of desertification in Horqin Sand Land,China[J].International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health,2015,12(2):1703-1725.
[28]孙仲益,张继权,王春乙,等.基于网格GIS的安徽省旱涝组合风险区划[J].灾害学,2013,28(1):74-78.
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